Papers

Information Bottleneck (IB) is widely used, but in deep learning, it is usually implemented through tractable surrogates, such as variational bounds or neural mutual information (MI) estimators, rather than directly controlling the MI I(X;Z) itself. The looseness and estimator-dependent bias can make IB "compression" only indirectly controlled and optimization fragile. We revisit the IB problem through the lens of information geometry and propose a Geometric Information Bottleneck (GeoIB) that dispenses with mutual information (MI) estimation. We show that I(X;Z) and I(Z;Y) admit exact projection forms as minimal Kullback-Leibler (KL) distances from the joint distributions to their respective independence manifolds. Guided by this view, GeoIB controls information compression with two complementary terms: (i) a distribution-level Fisher-Rao (FR) discrepancy, which matches KL to second order and is reparameterization-invariant; and (ii) a geometry-level Jacobian-Frobenius (JF) term that provides a local capacity-type upper bound on I(Z;X) by penalizing pullback volume expansion of the encoder. We further derive a natural-gradient optimizer consistent with the FR metric and prove that the standard additive natural-gradient step is first-order equivalent to the geodesic update. We conducted extensive experiments and observed that the GeoIB achieves a better trade-off between prediction accuracy and compression ratio in the information plane than the mainstream IB baselines on popular datasets. GeoIB improves invariance and optimization stability by unifying distributional and geometric regularization under a single bottleneck multiplier. The source code of GeoIB is released at "https://anonymous.4open.science/r/G-IB-0569".

Aggregation rules are the cornerstone of distributed (or federated) learning in the presence of adversaries, under the so-called Byzantine threat model. They are also interesting mathematical objects from the point of view of robust mean estimation. The Krum aggregation rule has been extensively studied, and endowed with formal robustness and convergence guarantees. Yet, MultiKrum, a natural extension of Krum, is often preferred in practice for its superior empirical performance, even though no theoretical guarantees were available until now. In this work, we provide the first proof that MultiKrum is a robust aggregation rule, and bound its robustness coefficient. To do so, we introduce $\kappa^\star$, the optimal *robustness coefficient* of an aggregation rule, which quantifies the accuracy of mean estimation in the presence of adversaries in a tighter manner compared with previously adopted notions of robustness. We then construct an upper and a lower bound on MultiKrum's robustness coefficient. As a by-product, we also improve on the best-known bounds on Krum's robustness coefficient. We show that MultiKrum's bounds are never worse than Krum's, and better in realistic regimes. We illustrate this analysis by an experimental investigation on the quality of the lower bound.

Poisson-distributed latent variable models are widely used in computational neuroscience, but differentiating through discrete stochastic samples remains challenging. Two approaches address this: *Exponential Arrival Time* (EAT) simulation and *Gumbel-SoftMax* (GSM) relaxation. We provide the first systematic comparison of these methods, along with practical guidance for practitioners. Our main technical contribution is a modification to the EAT method that theoretically guarantees an unbiased first moment (exactly matching the firing rate), and reduces second-moment bias. We evaluate these methods on their distributional fidelity, gradient quality, and performance on two tasks: (1) variational autoencoders with Poisson latents, and (2) partially observable generalized linear models, where latent neural connectivity must be inferred from observed spike trains. Across all metrics, our modified EAT method exhibits better overall performance (often comparable to exact gradients), and substantially higher robustness to hyperparameter choices. These results extend to over-dispersed Negative Binomial latents, where modified EAT again performs best. However, only GSM generalizes to arbitrary non-Poisson distributions, including the under-dispersed regime. Together, our results clarify the trade-offs between these methods and offer concrete recommendations for practitioners working with Poisson latent variable models.

Finite mixture models are widely used for unsupervised learning, but maximum likelihood estimation via EM suffers from degeneracy as components collapse. We introduce transcendental regularization, a penalized likelihood framework with analytic barrier functions that prevent degeneracy while maintaining asymptotic efficiency. The resulting Transcendental Algorithm for Mixtures of Distributions (TAMD) offers strong theoretical guarantees: identifiability, consistency, and robustness. Empirically, TAMD successfully stabilizes estimation and prevents collapse, yet achieves only modest improvements in classification accuracy-highlighting fundamental limits of mixture models for unsupervised learning in high dimensions. Our work provides both a novel theoretical framework and an honest assessment of practical limitations, implemented in an open-source R package.

We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference rule, unlocking flexible modeling of heterogeneous effects with multivariate, ordinal, or preference-driven outcomes. This unifies applications such as conditional probability of necessity and sufficiency, conditional Win Ratio, and Generalized Pairwise Comparisons. Despite the intrinsic non-identifiability of comparison-based estimands, CPTE provides interpretable targets and delivers new identifiability conditions for previous unidentifiable estimands. We present estimation strategies via matching, quantile, and distributional regression, and further design efficient influence-function estimators to correct plug-in bias and maximize policy value. Synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments demonstrate clear performance gains and practical impact.

Stochastic interpolants unify flows and diffusions, popular generative modeling frameworks. A primary hyperparameter in these methods is the interpolation schedule that determines how to bridge a standard Gaussian base measure to an arbitrary target measure. We prove how to convert a sample path of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with arbitrary diffusion coefficient under any schedule into the unique sample path under another arbitrary schedule and diffusion coefficient. We then extend the stochastic interpolant framework to admit a larger class of point mass schedules in which the Gaussian base measure collapses to a point mass measure. Under the assumption of Gaussian data, we identify lazy schedule families that make the drift identically zero and show that with deterministic sampling one gets a variance-preserving schedule commonly used in diffusion models, whereas with statistically optimal SDE sampling one gets our point mass schedule. Finally, to demonstrate the usefulness of our theoretical results on realistic highly non-Gaussian data, we apply our lazy schedule conversion to a state-of-the-art pretrained flow model and show that this allows for generating images in fewer steps without retraining the model.

The proportional hazards (PH) and accelerated failure time (AFT) models are the most widely used hazard structures for analysing time-to-event data. When the goal is to identify variables associated with event times, variable selection is typically performed within a single hazard structure, imposing strong assumptions on how covariates affect the hazard function. To allow simultaneous selection of relevant variables and the hazard structure itself, we develop a Bayesian variable selection approach within the general hazard (GH) model, which includes the PH, AFT, and other structures as special cases. We propose two types of g-priors for the regression coefficients that enable tractable computation and show that both lead to consistent model selection. We also introduce a hierarchical prior on the model space that accounts for multiplicity and penalises model complexity. To efficiently explore the GH model space, we extend the Add-Delete-Swap algorithm to jointly sample variable inclusion indicators and hazard structures. Simulation studies show accurate recovery of both the true hazard structure and active variables across different sample sizes and censoring levels. Two real-data applications are presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methodology and to compare it with existing variable selection methods.

While any symmetric and positive semidefinite mapping can be the non-centered covariance of a Gaussian random field, it is known that these conditions are no longer sufficient when the random field is valued in a two-point set. The question therefore arises of what are the necessary and sufficient conditions for a mapping $\rho: \X \times \X \to \R$ to be the non-centered covariance of a random field with values in a subset ${\cE}$ of $\R$. Such conditions are presented in the general case when ${\cE}$ is a closed subset of the real line, then examined for some specific cases. In particular, if ${\cE}=\R$ or $\Z$, it is shown that the conditions reduce to $\rho$ being symmetric and positive semidefinite. If ${\cE}$ is a closed interval or a two-point set, the necessary and sufficient conditions are more restrictive: the symmetry, positive semidefiniteness, upper and lower boundedness of $\rho$ are no longer enough to guarantee the existence of a random field valued in ${\cE}$ and having $\rho$ as its non-centered covariance. Similar characterizations are obtained for semivariograms and higher-order spatial moments, as well as for multivariate random fields.

Generative foundation models trained on tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction via Monte Carlo sampling of simulated future trajectories. However, this approach suffers from three coupled limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational cost, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators that leverage next-token probability distributions underutilized by standard Monte Carlo: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH). We prove both are unbiased, that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo for any model and outcome, and that REACH is a Rao-Blackwellization of any naive importance sampling scheme that preserves the non-outcome token distribution. Empirically, across $11$ clinically important outcomes in MIMIC-IV and the UChicago health system, SCOPE and REACH match $100$-sample Monte Carlo accuracy with median token reductions of $2.5\times$ to $3.4\times$ and reductions exceeding $80\times$ for the rarest outcomes, with calibration preserved throughout. Because SCOPE reuses a single sampled pool across an arbitrary number of outcomes at no marginal generation cost while REACH provides a per-task variance guarantee, the two estimators are complementary in deployment and together meaningfully reduce the inference budget required for generative EHR foundation models, particularly for rare, high-impact outcomes in healthcare.

Large language models are increasingly trained in continual or open-ended settings, where the total training horizon is not known in advance. Despite this, most existing pretraining recipes are not anytime: they rely on horizon-dependent learning rate schedules and extensive tuning under a fixed compute budget. In this work, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating the existence of anytime learning schedules for overparameterized linear regression, and we highlight the central role of weight averaging - also known as model merging - in achieving the minimax convergence rates of stochastic gradient descent. We show that these anytime schedules polynomially decay with time, with the decay rate determined by the source and capacity conditions of the problem. Empirically, we evaluate 150M and 300M parameter language models trained for up to 32x Chinchilla scale, comparing constant and $1/\sqrt{t}$ schedules with weight averaging against a well-tuned cosine schedule. Across the full training range, the anytime schedules achieve comparable final loss to cosine decay. Taken together, our results suggest that weight averaging combined with simple, horizon-free step sizes offers a practical and effective anytime alternative to cosine learning rate schedules for large language model pretraining.

Training large language models (LLMs) is computationally expensive, partly because the loss exhibits slow power-law convergence whose origin remains debatable. Through systematic analysis of toy models and empirical evaluation of LLMs, we show that this behavior can arise intrinsically from the use of softmax and cross-entropy. When learning peaked probability distributions, e.g., next-token distributions, these components generically yield power-law vanishing losses and gradients, regardless of many microscopic details, creating a fundamental optimization bottleneck. This ultimately leads to power-law time scaling of the loss with a universal exponent of $1/3$. Our results provide a mechanistic explanation for observed neural scaling and suggest new directions for improving LLM training efficiency.

We analyze the Accelerated Noisy Power Method, an algorithm for Principal Component Analysis in the setting where only inexact matrix-vector products are available, which can arise for instance in decentralized PCA. While previous works have established that acceleration can improve convergence rates compared to the standard Noisy Power Method, these guarantees require overly restrictive upper bounds on the magnitude of the perturbations, limiting their practical applicability. We provide an improved analysis of this algorithm, which preserves the accelerated convergence rate under much milder conditions on the perturbations. We show that our new analysis is worst-case optimal, in the sense that the convergence rate cannot be improved, and that the noise conditions we derive cannot be relaxed without sacrificing convergence guarantees. We demonstrate the practical relevance of our results by deriving an accelerated algorithm for decentralized PCA, which has similar communication costs to non-accelerated methods. To our knowledge, this is the first decentralized algorithm for PCA with provably accelerated convergence.

We analyze a lightweight simulation-based inference method that infers simulator parameters using only a regression-based projection of the observed data. After fitting a surrogate linear regression once, the procedure simulates small batches at the proposed parameter values and assigns kernel weights based on the resulting batch-residual discrepancy, producing a self-normalized pseudo-posterior that is simple, parallelizable, and requires access only to the fitted regression coefficients rather than raw observations. We formalize the construction as an importance-sampling approximation to a population target that averages over simulator randomness, prove consistency as the number of parameter draws grows, and establish stability in estimating the surrogate regression from finite samples. We then characterize the asymptotic concentration as the batch size increases and the bandwidth shrinks, showing that the pseudo-posterior concentrates on an identified set determined by the chosen projection, thereby clarifying when the method yields point versus set identification. Experiments on a tractable nonlinear model and on a cosmological calibration task using the DREAMS simulation suite illustrate the computational advantages of regression-based projections and the identifiability limitations arising from low-information summaries.

Graph generative modelling has become an essential task due to the wide range of applications in chemistry, biology, social networks, and knowledge representation. In this work, we propose a novel framework for generating graphs by adapting the Generator Matching (arXiv:2410.20587) paradigm to graph-structured data. We leverage the graph Laplacian and its associated heat kernel to define a continous-time diffusion on each graph. The Laplacian serves as the infinitesimal generator of this diffusion, and its heat kernel provides a family of conditional perturbations of the initial graph. A neural network is trained to match this generator by minimising a Bregman divergence between the true generator and a learnable surrogate. Once trained, the surrogate generator is used to simulate a time-reversed diffusion process to sample new graph structures. Our framework unifies and generalises existing diffusion-based graph generative models, injecting domain-specific inductive bias via the Laplacian, while retaining the flexibility of neural approximators. Experimental studies demonstrate that our approach captures structural properties of real and synthetic graphs effectively.

Monitoring daily weather fields is critical for climate science, agriculture, and environmental planning, yet fully probabilistic spatio-temporal models become computationally prohibitive at continental scale. We present a case study on short-term forecasting of daily maximum temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States using novel scalable spatio-temporal Gaussian process methodology. Building on three approximation families - inducing-point methods (FITC), Vecchia approximations, and a hybrid Vecchia-inducing-point full-scale approach (VIF) - we introduce three extensions that address key bottlenecks in large space-time settings: (i) a scalable correlation-based neighbor selection strategy for Vecchia approximations with point-referenced data, enabling accurate conditioning under complex dependence structures, (ii) a space-time kMeans++ inducing-point selection algorithm, and (iii) GPU-accelerated implementations of computationally expensive operations, including matrix operations and neighbor searches. Using both synthetic experiments and a large NOAA station dataset containing more than one million space-time observations, we analyze the models with respect to predictive performance, parameter estimation, and computational efficiency. Our results demonstrate that scalable Gaussian process models can yield accurate continental-scale forecasts while remaining computationally feasible, offering practical tools for weather applications.

Computational optimal transport (OT) offers a principled framework for generative modeling. Neural OT methods, which use neural networks to learn an OT map (or potential) from data in an amortized way, can be evaluated out of sample after training, but existing approaches are tailored to Euclidean geometry. Extending neural OT to high-dimensional Riemannian manifolds remains an open challenge. In this paper, we prove that any method for OT on manifolds that produces discrete approximations of transport maps necessarily suffers from the curse of dimensionality: achieving a fixed accuracy requires a number of parameters that grows exponentially with the manifold dimension. Motivated by this limitation, we introduce Riemannian Neural OT (RNOT) maps, which are continuous neural-network parameterizations of OT maps on manifolds that avoid discretization and incorporate geometric structure by construction. Under mild regularity assumptions, we prove that RNOT maps approximate Riemannian OT maps with sub-exponential complexity in the dimension. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate improved scalability and competitive performance relative to discretization-based baselines.

We study approximation and statistical learning properties of deep ReLU networks under structural assumptions that mitigate the curse of dimensionality. We prove minimax-optimal uniform approximation rates for $s$-Hölder smooth functions defined on sets with low Minkowski dimension using fully connected networks with flexible width and depth, improving existing results by logarithmic factors even in classical full-dimensional settings. A key technical ingredient is a new memorization result for deep ReLU networks that enables efficient point fitting with dense architectures. We further introduce a class of compositional models in which each component function is smooth and acts on a domain of low intrinsic dimension. This framework unifies two common assumptions in the statistical learning literature, structural constraints on the target function and low dimensionality of the covariates, within a single model. We show that deep networks can approximate such functions at rates determined by the most difficult function in the composition. As an application, we derive improved convergence rates for empirical risk minimization in nonparametric regression that adapt to smoothness, compositional structure, and intrinsic dimensionality.

Modern learning systems often interpolate training data while still generalizing well, yet it remains unclear when algorithmic stability explains this behavior. We model training as a function-space trajectory and measure sensitivity to single-sample perturbations along this trajectory. We propose a contractive propagation condition and a stability certificate obtained by unrolling the resulting recursion. A small certificate implies stability-based generalization, while we also prove that there exist interpolating regimes with small risk where such contractive sensitivity cannot hold, showing that stability is not a universal explanation. Experiments confirm that certificate growth predicts generalization differences across optimizers, step sizes, and dataset perturbations. The framework therefore identifies regimes where stability explains generalization and where alternative mechanisms must account for success.

Kriging is a fundamental tool for spatial prediction, but its computational complexity of $O(N^3)$ becomes prohibitive for large datasets. While local kriging using $K$-nearest neighbors addresses this issue, the selection of $K$ typically relies on ad-hoc criteria that fail to account for spatial correlation structure. We propose a penalized kriging framework that incorporates LASSO-type penalties directly into the kriging equations to achieve automatic, data-driven neighbor selection. We further extend this to adaptive LASSO, using data-driven penalty weights that account for the spatial correlation structure. Our method determines which observations contribute non-zero weights through $\ell_1$ regularization, with the penalty parameter selected via a novel criterion based on effective sample size that balances prediction accuracy against information redundancy. Numerical experiments demonstrate that penalized kriging automatically adapts neighborhood structure to the underlying spatial correlation, selecting fewer neighbors for smoother processes and more for highly variable fields, while maintaining prediction accuracy comparable to global kriging at substantially reduced computational cost.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) as optimizers for black-box scientific design problems requires efficient test-time refinement under expensive evaluations and without training data. We propose a memory-augmented test-time optimization framework that combines episodic memory of high-scoring candidates, score-difference feedback, and restart-from-best sampling to improve iterative search. We evaluate the approach on quantum circuit synthesis, where the objective is to maximize the Meyer–Wallach (MW) global entanglement measure under an exponentially expensive black-box oracle. On 20-qubit circuits, the framework achieves $Q(\psi)=0.99$ without feedback. On the more challenging 25-qubit task, feedback and restart mechanisms enable multiple runs to reach $Q(\psi)=1.0$ within 45 oracle calls, while a budget-matched random hill-climbing baseline stalls below $Q(\psi)\approx0.29$. These results demonstrate that memory and evaluator feedback substantially improve the sample efficiency of LLM-based black-box optimization and establish quantum circuit synthesis as a challenging benchmark for test-time optimization.

Integrating hard constraints into deep learning is essential for safety-critical systems. Yet existing constructive layers that project predictions onto constraint boundaries face a fundamental bottleneck: gradient saturation. By collapsing exterior points onto lower-dimensional surfaces, standard orthogonal projections induce rank-deficient Jacobians, which nullify gradients orthogonal to active constraints and hinder optimization. We introduce Soft-Radial Projection, a differentiable reparameterization layer that circumvents this issue through a radial mapping from Euclidean space into the interior of the feasible set. This construction guarantees strict feasibility while preserving a full-rank Jacobian almost everywhere, thereby preventing the optimization stalls typical of boundary-based methods. We theoretically prove that the architecture retains the universal approximation property and empirically show improved convergence behavior and solution quality over state-of-the-art optimization- and projection-based baselines.

Estimating treatment effects in networks is challenging, as each potential outcome depends on the treatments of all other nodes in the network. To overcome this difficulty, existing methods typically impose an exposure mapping that compresses the treatment assignments in the network into a low-dimensional summary. However, if this mapping is misspecified, standard estimators for direct and spillover effects can be severely biased. We propose a novel partial identification framework for causal inference on networks to assess the robustness of treatment effects under misspecifications of the exposure mapping. Specifically, we derive sharp upper and lower bounds on direct and spillover effects under such misspecifications. As such, our framework presents a novel application of causal sensitivity analysis to exposure mappings. We instantiate our framework for three canonical exposure settings widely used in practice: (i) weighted means of the neighborhood treatments, (ii) threshold-based exposure mappings, and (iii) truncated neighborhood interference in the presence of higher-order spillovers. Furthermore, we develop orthogonal estimators for these bounds and prove that the resulting bound estimates are valid, sharp, and efficient. Our experiments show the bounds remain informative and provide reliable conclusions under misspecification of exposure mappings.

Score-based diffusion models are a recently developed framework for posterior sampling in Bayesian inverse problems, enabling high-quality reconstructions in inverse problems by leveraging expressive prior distributions learned from empirical data. Despite their strong empirical performance and growing interest within the machine learning community, their behaviour in realistic, severely ill-posed inverse problems with experimental measurement data remains under-explored. Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is an inverse boundary value problem that uses boundary measurements of near-infrared light to recover spatially varying absorption and scattering parameters in biological tissue. The problem is highly ill-posed and particularly sensitive to both measurement noise and modelling errors. We introduce a regularization strategy by constructing a mixed score consisting of a learned component and a model-based component. We show that the resulting mixed score approximates the score of a corresponding mixture distribution locally and in the small diffusion-time regime, providing a theoretical justification for the approach. We compare four approaches for difference imaging in DOT: a classical model-based method, an approximate score-based diffusion method (DPS), an exact posterior sampling method (UCoS) and a novel, regularized version of UCoS. We show that both the model-based approach and approximate diffusion-based sampling degrade significantly in the presence of limited-view geometry and real experimental data, whereas UCoS yields more accurate reconstructions.

This paper studies the optimization of the KL functional on the Wasserstein space of probability measures, and develops a sampling framework based on Wasserstein gradient descent (WGD). We identify two important subclasses of the Wasserstein space for which the WGD scheme is guaranteed to converge, thereby providing new theoretical foundations for optimization-based sampling methods on measure spaces. For practical implementation, we construct a particle-based WGD algorithm in which the score function is estimated via score matching. Through a series of numerical experiments, we demonstrate that WGD can provide good approximation to a variety of complex target distributions, including those that pose substantial challenges for standard MCMC and parametric variational Bayes methods. These results suggest that WGD offers a promising and flexible alternative for scalable Bayesian inference in high-dimensional or multimodal settings.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often produce overconfident out-of-distribution predictions, motivating Bayesian uncertainty quantification. The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) achieves this by linearizing the DNN and applying Laplace inference to the resulting model. Importantly, the linear model is also used for prediction. We argue this linearization in the posterior may degrade fidelity to the true Laplace approximation. To alleviate this problem, without increasing significantly the computational cost, we propose the Quadratic Laplace Approximation (QLA). QLA approximates each second order factor in the approximate Laplace log-posterior using a rank-one factor obtained via efficient power iterations. QLA is expected to yield a posterior precision closer to that of the full Laplace without forming the full Hessian, which is typically intractable. For prediction, QLA also uses the linearized model. Empirically, QLA yields modest yet consistent uncertainty estimation improvements over LLA on five regression datasets.

Inferring the activities of transcription factors from high-throughput transcriptomic or open chromatin profiling, such as RNA-/CAGE-/ATAC-Seq, is a long-standing challenge in systems biology. Identification of highly active master regulators enables mechanistic interpretation of differential gene expression, chromatin state changes, or perturbation responses across conditions, cell types, and diseases. Here, we describe MARADONER, a statistical framework and its software implementation for motif activity response analysis (MARA), utilizing the sequence-level features obtained with pattern matching (motif scanning) of individual promoters and promoter- or gene-level activity or expression estimates. Compared to the classic MARA, MARADONER (MARA-done-right) employs an unbiased variance parameter estimation and a bias-adjusted likelihood estimation of fixed effects, thereby enhancing goodness-of-fit and the accuracy of activity estimation. Further, MARADONER is capable of accounting for heteroscedasticity of motif scores and activity estimates.

This paper proposes a machine learning-based framework for asset selection and portfolio construction, termed the Best-Path Algorithm Sparse Graphical Model (BPASGM). The method extends the Best-Path Algorithm (BPA) by mapping linear and non-linear dependencies among a large set of financial assets into a sparse graphical model satisfying a structural Markov property. Based on this representation, BPASGM performs a dependence-driven screening that removes positively or redundantly connected assets, isolating subsets that are conditionally independent or negatively correlated. This step is designed to enhance diversification and reduce estimation error in high-dimensional portfolio settings. Portfolio optimization is then conducted on the selected subset using standard mean-variance techniques. BPASGM does not aim to improve the theoretical mean-variance optimum under known population parameters, but rather to enhance realized performance in finite samples, where sample-based Markowitz portfolios are highly sensitive to estimation error. Monte Carlo simulations show that BPASGM-based portfolios achieve more stable risk-return profiles, lower realized volatility, and superior risk-adjusted performance compared to standard mean-variance portfolios. Empirical results for U.S. equities, global stock indices, and foreign exchange rates over 1990-2025 confirm these findings and demonstrate a substantial reduction in portfolio cardinality. Overall, BPASGM offers a statistically grounded and computationally efficient framework that integrates sparse graphical modeling with portfolio theory for dependence-aware asset selection.

Quantitative imaging methods, such as magnetic resonance fingerprinting (MRF), aim to extract interpretable pathology biomarkers by estimating biophysical tissue parameters from signal evolutions. However, the pattern-matching algorithms or neural networks used in such inverse problems often lack principled uncertainty quantification, which limits the trustworthiness and transparency, required for clinical acceptance. Here, we describe a physics-structured variational autoencoder (PS-VAE) designed for rapid extraction of voxelwise multi-parameter posterior distributions. Our approach integrates a differentiable spin physics simulator with self-supervised learning, and provides a full covariance that captures the inter-parameter correlations of the latent biophysical space. The method was validated in a multi-proton pool chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and semisolid magnetization transfer (MT) molecular MRF study, across in-vitro phantoms, tumor-bearing mice, healthy human volunteers, and a subject with glioblastoma. The resulting multi-parametric posteriors are in good agreement with those calculated using a brute-force Bayesian analysis, while providing an orders-of-magnitude acceleration in whole brain quantification. In addition, we demonstrate how monitoring the multi-parameter posterior dynamics across progressively acquired signals provides practical insights for protocol optimization and may facilitate real-time adaptive acquisition.

We propose an orthogonal approximate message passing (OAMP) algorithm for signal estimation in the rectangular spiked matrix model with general rotationally invariant (RI) noise. We establish a rigorous state evolution that exactly characterizes the high-dimensional dynamics of the algorithm. Building on this framework, we derive an optimal variant of OAMP that minimizes the predicted mean-squared error at each iteration. For the special case of i.i.d. Gaussian noise, the fixed point of the proposed OAMP algorithm coincides with that of the standard AMP algorithm. For general RI noise models, we conjecture that the optimal OAMP algorithm is statistically optimal within a broad class of iterative methods, and achieves Bayes-optimal performance in certain regimes.

In Calgary, November 2005, Chad Hedrick was the first to skate the 5,000 m below 6:10. His world record time 6:09.68 was then beaten a week later, in Salt Lake City, by Sven Kramer's 6:08.78. Further top races and world records followed over the ensuing seasons; up to and including the 2024-2025 season, a total of 126 races have been below 6:10, with Nils van der Poel's 2021 world record being 6:01.56. The appropriately hyped-up canonical question for the friends and followers and aficionados of speedskating has then been when (and by whom we for the first time would witness a below 6:00.00 race. In this note I first use extreme value statistics modelling to assess the state of affairs, as per the end of the 2024-2025 season, with predictions and probabilities for the 2025-2026 season. Under natural modelling assumptions the probability of seeing a new world record during this new season is shown to be about ten percent. We were indeed excited but in reality merely modestly surprised that a race better than van der Poel's record was clocked, by Timothy Loubineaud, in Salt Lake City, November 14, 2025. But Six-Minute Man Sander Eitrem's outstanding 5:58.52 in Inzell, on January 24, 2026, is truly beamonesquely shocking. I also use the modelling machinery to analyse the post-Eitrem situation, and suggest answers to the question of how fast the 5,000 m ever can be skated.