Papers

In this work we investigate the relationship between kernel regularity and algorithmic performance in the bandit optimization of RKHS functions. While reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) methods traditionally rely on global kernel regressors, it is also common to use a smoothness-based approach that exploits local approximations. We show that these perspectives are deeply connected through the spectral properties of isotropic kernels. In particular, we characterize the Fourier spectra of the Matérn, square-exponential, rational-quadratic, $\gamma$-exponential, piecewise-polynomial, and Dirichlet kernels, and show that the decay rate determines asymptotic regret from both viewpoints. For kernelized bandit algorithms, spectral decay yields upper bounds on the maximum information gain, governing worst-case regret, while for smoothness-based methods, the same decay rates establish Hölder space embeddings and Besov space norm-equivalences, enabling local continuity analysis. These connections show that kernel-based and locally adaptive algorithms can be analyzed within a unified framework. This allows us to derive explicit regret bounds for each kernel family, obtaining novel results in several cases and providing improved analysis for others. Furthermore, we analyze LP-GP-UCB, an algorithm that combines both approaches, augmenting global Gaussian process surrogates with local polynomial estimators. While the hybrid approach does not uniformly dominate specialized methods, it achieves order-optimality across multiple kernel families.

Public-use microdata samples (PUMS) from the United States (US) Census Bureau on individuals have been available for decades. However, large increases in computing power and the greater availability of Big Data have dramatically increased the probability of re-identifying anonymized data, potentially violating the pledge of confidentiality given to survey respondents. Data science tools can be used to produce synthetic data that preserve critical moments of the empirical data but do not contain the records of any existing individual respondent or business. Developing public-use firm data from surveys presents unique challenges different from demographic data, because there is a lack of anonymity and certain industries can be easily identified in each geographic area. This paper briefly describes a machine learning model used to construct a synthetic PUMS based on the Annual Business Survey (ABS) and discusses various quality metrics. Although the ABS PUMS is currently being refined and results are confidential, we present two synthetic PUMS developed for the 2007 Survey of Business Owners, similar to the ABS business data. Econometric replication of a high impact analysis published in Small Business Economics demonstrates the verisimilitude of the synthetic data to the true data and motivates discussion of possible ABS use cases.

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that "minimize information loss" from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

Deep neural networks often fail when deployed in real-world contexts due to distribution shift, a critical barrier to building safe and reliable systems. An emerging approach to address this problem relies on disagreement discrepancy – a measure of how the disagreement between two models changes under a shifting distribution. The process of maximizing this measure has seen applications in bounding error under shifts, testing for harmful shifts, and training more robust models. However, this optimization involves the non-differentiable zero-one loss, necessitating the use of practical surrogate losses. We prove that existing surrogates for disagreement discrepancy are not Bayes consistent, revealing a fundamental flaw: maximizing these surrogates can fail to maximize the true disagreement discrepancy. To address this, we introduce new theoretical results providing both upper and lower bounds on the optimality gap for such surrogates. Guided by this theory, we propose a novel disagreement loss that, when paired with cross-entropy, yields a provably consistent surrogate for disagreement discrepancy. Empirical evaluations across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that our method provides more accurate and robust estimates of disagreement discrepancy than existing approaches, particularly under challenging adversarial conditions.

We consider the fundamental problem of balanced $k$-means clustering. In particular, we introduce an optimal transport approach to alternating minimization called BalLOT, and we show that it delivers a fast and effective solution to this problem. We establish this with several theoretical guarantees and a variety of numerical experiments. On the theory front, we first prove that for generic data, BalLOT produces integral couplings at each step. Next, we perform a landscape analysis to provide theoretical guarantees for both exact and partial recoveries of planted clusters under the stochastic ball model. We also propose initialization schemes that achieve one-step recovery of planted clusters. To conclude, we present numerical experiments that corroborate our theoretical results.

Accurate real-time waypoints estimation for the UAV-based online Terrain Following during wildfire patrol missions is critical to ensuring flight safety and enabling wildfire detection. However, existing real-time filtering algorithms struggle to maintain accurate waypoints under measurement noise in nonlinear and time-varying systems, posing risks of flight instability and missed wildfire detections during UAV-based terrain following. To address this issue, a Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter, guided by a Residual Variance Matching Estimation (RVME) criterion, is proposed to adaptively estimate the real-time waypoints of nonlinear, time-varying UAV-based terrain following systems. The proposed method is validated using a UAV-based online terrain following system within a simulated terrain environment. Experimental results show that the RVM-RLS filter improves waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88$\%$ compared with benchmark algorithms across multiple evaluation metrics. These findings demonstrate both the methodological advances in real-time filtering and the practical potential of the RVM-RLS filter for UAV-based online wildfire patrol.

It is well known that model selection via cross validation can be biased for time series models. However, many researchers have argued that this bias does not apply when using cross-validation with vector autoregressions (VAR) or with time series models whose errors follow a martingale-like structure. I show that even under these circumstances, performing cross-validation on time series data will still generate bias in general.

In this paper, we propose a recurrent neural network (RNN)-based framework for estimating the parameters of the fractional Poisson process (FPP), which models event arrivals with memory and long-range dependence. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network estimates the key parameters $\mu >0$ and $\beta \in(0,1)$ from sequences of inter-arrival times, effectively modeling their temporal dependencies. Our experiments on synthetic data show that the proposed approach reduces the mean squared error (MSE) by about 55.3% compared to the traditional method of moments (MOM) and performs reliably across different training conditions. We tested the method on two real-world high-frequency datasets: emergency call records from Montgomery County, PA, and AAPL stock trading data. The results show that the LSTM can effectively track daily patterns and parameter changes, indicating its effectiveness on real-world data with complex time dependencies.

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and frequentist approaches, we develop the inferential framework for estimation, interval construction, hypothesis testing, and prediction. Through canonical models, we illustrate how prior information and observed data are formally integrated to yield posterior distributions. We also explore key concepts including loss functions, credible intervals, Bayes factors, identifiability, and asymptotic behavior. While emphasizing analytical tractability in classical settings, we outline modern extensions that rely on simulation-based methods and discuss challenges related to prior specification and model evaluation. Though focused on foundational ideas, this paper sets the stage for applying Bayesian methods in contemporary domains such as hierarchical modeling, nonparametrics, and structured applications in time series, spatial data, networks, and political science. The goal is to provide a rigorous yet accessible entry point for students and researchers seeking to adopt a Bayesian perspective in statistical practice.

We study monotone paths in Erdős-Rényi random graphs on numbered vertices. Benjamini & Tzalik established a phase transition at $p = \frac{\log n}{n}$ for this model. We refine the critical value to $p = \frac{\log n - \log \log n }{n}$ and identify the critical window of order $\Theta(1/n)$.

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors (between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate). The statistics of these errors are in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), as a key part of precision medicine, have progressively gained more attention recently. To inform clinical decision making, interpretable and parsimonious models for contrast functions are preferred, raising concerns about undue misspecification. It is therefore important to properly evaluate the performance of candidate interpretable models and select the one that best approximates the unknown contrast function. Moreover, since a DTR usually involves multiple decision points, an inaccurate approximation at a later decision point affects its estimation at an earlier decision point when a backward induction algorithm is applied. This paper aims to perform model selection for contrast functions in the context of learning optimal DTRs from observed data. Note that the relative performance of candidate models may heavily depend on the sample size when, for example, the comparison is made between parametric and tree-based models. Therefore, instead of investigating the limiting behavior of each candidate model and developing methods to select asymptotically the `correct' one, we focus on the finite sample performance of each model and attempt to perform model selection under a given sample size. To this end, we adopt the counterfactual cross-validation metric and propose a novel method to estimate the variance of the metric. Supplementing the cross-validation metric with its estimated variance allows us to characterize the uncertainty in model selection under a given sample size and facilitates hypothesis testing associated with a preferred model structure.

Analyzing decision problems under uncertainty commonly relies on idealizing assumptions about the describability of the world, with the most prominent examples being the closed world and the small world assumption. Most assumptions are operationalized by introducing states of the world, conditional on which the decision situation can be analyzed without any remaining uncertainty. Conversely, most classical decision-theoretic approaches are not applicable if the states of the world are inaccessible. We propose a decision model that retains the appeal and simplicity of the original theory, but completely overcomes the need to specify the states of the world explicitly. The main idea of our approach is to address decision problems in a radically empirical way: instead of specifying states and consequences prior to the decision analysis, we only assume a protocol of observed act–consequence pairs as model primitives. We show how optimality in such empirical decision problems can be addressed by using protocol-based empirical choice functions and discuss three approaches for deriving inferential guarantees: (I) consistent statistical estimation of choice sets, (II) consistent statistical testing of choice functions with robustness guarantees, and (III) direct inference for empirical choice functions using credal sets. We illustrate our theory with a proof-of-concept application comparing different prompting strategies in generative AI models.

This paper focusses on robust estimation of location and concentration parameters of the von Mises-Fisher distribution in the Bayesian framework. The von Mises-Fisher (or Langevin) distribution has played a central role in directional statistics. Directional data have been investigated for many decades, and more recently, they have gained increasing attention in diverse areas such as bioinformatics and text data analysis. Although outliers can significantly affect the estimation results even for directional data, the treatment of outliers remains an unresolved and challenging problem. In the frequentist framework, numerous studies have developed robust estimation methods for directional data with outliers, but, in contrast, only a few robust estimation methods have been proposed in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, we propose Bayesian inference based on the density power divergence and the $\gamma$-divergence and establish their asymptotic properties and robustness. In addition, the Bayesian approach naturally provides a way to assess estimation uncertainty through the posterior distribution, which is particularly useful for small samples. Furthermore, to carry out the posterior computation, we develop the posterior computation algorithm based on the weighted Bayesian bootstrap for estimating parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated through simulation studies. Using two real datasets, we further show that the proposed method provides reliable and robust estimation even in the presence of outliers or data contamination.

Semantic communication systems aim to transmit task-relevant information between devices capable of artificial intelligence, but their performance can degrade when heterogeneous transmitter-receiver models produce misaligned latent representations. Existing semantic alignment methods typically rely on additional digital processing at the transmitter or receiver, increasing overall device complexity. In this work, we introduce the first over-the-air semantic alignment framework based on stacked intelligent metasurfaces (SIM), which enables latent-space alignment directly in the wave domain, reducing substantially the computational burden at the device level. We model SIMs as trainable linear operators capable of emulating both supervised linear aligners and zero-shot Parseval-frame-based equalizers. To realize these operators physically, we develop a gradient-based optimization procedure that tailors the metasurface transfer function to a desired semantic mapping. Experiments with heterogeneous vision transformer (ViT) encoders show that SIMs can accurately reproduce both supervised and zero-shot semantic equalizers, achieving up to 90% task accuracy in regimes with high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), while maintaining strong robustness even at low SNR values.

Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling. State-space formulations provide a coherent probabilistic framework for such inference, yet fully Bayesian estimation is often computationally prohibitive because evaluating the observed-data likelihood requires integration over a latent trajectory. The Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) algorithm offers a principled approach for joint state and parameter inference, combining an outer SMC sampler over parameters with an inner particle filter that estimates the likelihood up to the current time point. Despite its theoretical appeal, this nested particle filter imposes substantial computational cost, limiting routine use in near-real-time outbreak response. We propose Ensemble SMC$^2$ (eSMC$^2$), a computationally efficient variant that replaces the inner particle filter with an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to approximate the incremental likelihood at each observation time. While this substitution introduces bias via a Gaussian approximation, we mitigate finite-sample effects using an unbiased Gaussian density estimator and adapt the EnKF for epidemic data through state-dependent observation variance. This makes our approach particularly suitable for overdispersed incidence data commonly encountered in infectious disease surveillance. Simulation experiments with known ground truth and an application to 2022 United States (U.S.) monkeypox incidence data demonstrate that eSMC$^2$ achieves substantial computational gains while producing posterior estimates comparable to SMC$^2$. The method accurately reconstructs epidemic trajectories and estimates key epidemiological parameters, providing an efficient framework for sequential Bayesian inference from imperfect surveillance data.

Tumor shape plays a critical role in influencing both growth and metastasis. We introduce a novel topological radiomic feature derived from persistent homology to characterize tumor shape, focusing on its association with time-to-event outcomes in gliomas. These features effectively capture diverse tumor shape patterns that are not represented by conventional radiomic measures. To incorporate these features into survival analysis, we employ a functional Cox regression model in which the topological features are represented in a functional space. We further include interaction terms between shape features and tumor location to capture lobe-specific effects. This approach enables interpretable assessment of how tumor morphology relates to survival risk. We evaluate the proposed method in two case studies using radiomic images of high-grade and low-grade gliomas. The findings suggest that the topological features serve as strong predictors of survival prognosis, remaining significant after adjusting for clinical variables, and provide additional clinically meaningful insights into tumor behavior.

Classical supervised learning evaluates models primarily via predictive risk on hold-out data. Such evaluations quantify how well a function behaves on a distribution, but they do not address whether the internal decomposition of a model is uniquely determined by the data and evaluation design. In this paper, we introduce Modular Jets for regression and classification pipelines. Given a task manifold (input space), a modular decomposition, and access to module-level representations, we estimate empirical jets, which are local linear response maps that describe how each module reacts to small structured perturbations of the input. We propose an empirical notion of mirage regimes, where multiple distinct modular decompositions induce indistinguishable jets and thus remain observationally equivalent, and contrast this with an identifiable regime, where the observed jets single out a decomposition up to natural symmetries. In the setting of two-module linear regression pipelines we prove a jet-identifiability theorem. Under mild rank assumptions and access to module-level jets, the internal factorisation is uniquely determined, whereas risk-only evaluation admits a large family of mirage decompositions that implement the same input-to-output map. We then present an algorithm (MoJet) for empirical jet estimation and mirage diagnostics, and illustrate the framework using linear and deep regression as well as pipeline classification.

We study the calibration of Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions in the interpolation setting from a design-marginal perspective. Conditioning on the data and averaging over a design measure \mu, we formalize \mu-coverage for central intervals and \mu-probabilistic calibration through randomized probability integral transforms. We introduce two methods. cps-gp adapts conformal predictive systems to GP interpolation using standardized leave-one-out residuals, yielding stepwise predictive distributions with finite-sample marginal calibration. bcr-gp retains the GP posterior mean and replaces the Gaussian residual by a generalized normal model fitted to cross-validated standardized residuals. A Bayesian selection rule-based either on a posterior upper quantile of the variance for conservative prediction or on a cross-posterior Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion for probabilistic calibration-controls dispersion and tail behavior while producing smooth predictive distributions suitable for sequential design. Numerical experiments on benchmark functions compare cps-gp, bcr-gp, Jackknife+ for GPs, and the full conformal Gaussian process, using calibration metrics (coverage, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, integral absolute error) and accuracy or sharpness through the scaled continuous ranked probability score.

The main objective of this study is to propose an optimal transport based semi-supervised approach to learn from scarce labelled image data using deep convolutional networks. The principle lies in implicit graph-based transductive semi-supervised learning where the similarity metric between image samples is the Wasserstein distance. This metric is used in the label propagation mechanism during learning. We apply and demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a GNSS real life application. More specifically, we address the problem of multi-path interference detection. Experiments are conducted under various signal conditions. The results show that for specific choices of hyperparameters controlling the amount of semi-supervision and the level of sensitivity to the metric, the classification accuracy can be significantly improved over the fully supervised training method.

The visible parts of a scene are determined by occlusion among overlapping surfaces. Here we consider "dead leaves" models, which replicate this by independently sampling objects ("leaves") with position, shape, color, and texture and layering them until the image is covered. Building on prior theory, we present a self-contained framework that rigorously defines the dead leaves model and derives an analytical Bayesian ideal observer for partitioning finite pixel sets. The longest part of the paper spans the derivation of the prior probability, which elevates the observer beyond pixel-similarity methods by incorporating geometric information. These computations are practical only for small pixel sets (up to 9-10 pixels). We emphasize accessibility through step-by-step derivations, extensive visualizations, and examples. We empirically evaluate three tractable observers (prior-only, likelihood-only, and the full ideal observer), plus a random baseline on 108 dead leaves image datasets varying in texture intensity, leaf size, and image size. Likelihood-only performance falls with increasing texture intensity and image size. Prior-only performance falls with decreasing leaf size and increasing maximal image dimension. All model-based observers strongly outperform the random baseline, and the ideal observer consistently outperforms the others by combining both information sources. The model provides a principled upper bound on segmentation performance for limited pixel sets, enabling comparisons with human observers and algorithms.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a pivotal challenge in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), profoundly impacting decision-making, risk assessment and model reliability. In this paper, we introduce Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications (CDEC and IDEC, respectively) as novel approaches to address UQ in classification tasks. CDEC and IDEC leverage a credal set (closed and convex set of probabilities) and an interval of evidential predictive distributions, respectively, allowing us to avoid overfitting to the training data and to systematically assess both epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible) uncertainties. When those surpass acceptable thresholds, CDEC and IDEC have the capability to abstain from classification and flag an excess of epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty, as relevant. Conversely, within acceptable uncertainty bounds, CDEC and IDEC provide a collection of labels with robust probabilistic guarantees. CDEC and IDEC are trained using standard backpropagation and a loss function that draws from the theory of evidence. They overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts, and extend the current evidential deep learning literature. Through extensive experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, together with their natural OoD shifts (F-MNIST/K-MNIST, SVHN/Intel, TinyImageNet), we show that CDEC and IDEC achieve competitive predictive accuracy, state-of-the-art OoD detection under epistemic and total uncertainty, and tight, well-calibrated prediction regions that expand reliably under distribution shift. An ablation over ensemble size further demonstrates that CDEC attains stable uncertainty estimates with only a small ensemble.

Train delays are a persistent issue in railway systems, particularly in suburban networks where operational complexity is heightened by frequent services and high passenger volumes. Traditional delay models often overlook the temporal and structural dynamics of real delay propagation. This work applies continuous-time multi-state models to analyze the temporal evolution of delay on the S5 suburban line in Lombardy, Italy. Using detailed operational, meteorological, and contextual data, the study models delay transitions while accounting for observable heterogeneity. The findings reveal how delay dynamics vary by travel direction, time slot, and route segment. Covariates such as station saturation and passenger load are shown to significantly affect the risk of delay escalation or recovery. The study offers both methodological advancements and practical results for improving the reliability of rail services.

DNA databases are widely used in forensic science to identify unknown offenders. When no exact match is found, familial DNA searches can help by identifying first-degree relatives using likelihood ratios. If multiple subpopulations are relevant, likelihood ratios can be computed separately based on allele frequency estimates. Various strategies exist to combine these ratios, such as averaging allele frequencies or taking the average, maximum, or minimum likelihood ratio. While some comparisons have been made in populations like those in the U.S., their effectiveness in other regions remains unclear. This study evaluates likelihood ratio-based strategies in Southeast Asian populations, specifically Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. Our findings align with previous research, showing that statistical power varies across strategies. Among Thai subpopulations, the minimum likelihood ratio strategy is preferred, as it maintains high power while minimizing differences between subpopulations.

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as substitutes for missing or unobserved data. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to drawing inference with predicted data (IPD) and show that high predictive accuracy does not guarantee valid downstream inference. We show that all such failures reduce to statistical notions of (i) bias, when predictions systematically shift the estimand or distort relationships among variables, and (ii) variance, when uncertainty from the prediction model and the intrinsic variability of the true data are ignored. We then review recent methods for conducting IPD and discuss how this framework is deeply rooted in classical statistical theory. We then comment on some open questions and interesting avenues for future work in this area, and end with some comments on how to use predicted data in scientific studies that is both transparent and statistically principled.

Recent advances in natural language processing have enabled the increasing use of text data in causal inference, particularly for adjusting confounding factors in treatment effect estimation. Although high-dimensional text can encode rich contextual information, it also poses unique challenges for causal identification and estimation. In particular, the positivity assumption, which requires sufficient treatment overlap across confounder values, is often violated at the observational level, when massive text is represented in feature spaces. Redundant or spurious textual features inflate dimensionality, producing extreme propensity scores, unstable weights, and inflated variance in effect estimates. We address these challenges with Confounding-Aware Token Rationalization (CATR), a framework that selects a sparse necessary subset of tokens using a residual-independence diagnostic designed to preserve confounding information sufficient for unconfoundedness. By discarding irrelevant texts while retaining key signals, CATR mitigates observational-level positivity violations and stabilizes downstream causal effect estimators. Experiments on synthetic data and a real-world study using the MIMIC-III database demonstrate that CATR yields more accurate, stable, and interpretable causal effect estimates than existing baselines.

We consider the problem of learning the parameters of a $N$-dimensional stochastic linear dynamics under both full and partial observations from a single trajectory of time $T$. We introduce and analyze a new estimator that achieves a small maximum element-wise error on the recovery of symmetric dynamic matrices using only $T=\mathcal{O}(\log N)$ observations, irrespective of whether the matrix is sparse or dense. This estimator is based on the method of moments and does not rely on problem-specific regularization. This is especially important for applications such as structure discovery.

Watermarking has recently emerged as a crucial tool for protecting the intellectual property of generative models and for distinguishing AI-generated content from human-generated data. Despite its practical success, most existing watermarking schemes are empirically driven and lack a theoretical understanding of the fundamental trade-off between detection power and generation fidelity. To address this gap, we formulate watermarking as a statistical hypothesis testing problem between a null distribution and its watermarked counterpart. Under explicit constraints on false-positive and false-negative rates, we derive a tight lower bound on the achievable fidelity loss, measured by a general $f$-divergence, and characterize the optimal watermarked distribution that attains this bound. We further develop a corresponding sampling rule that provides an optimal mechanism for inserting watermarks with minimal fidelity distortion. Our result establishes a simple yet broadly applicable principle linking hypothesis testing, information divergence, and watermark generation.

This paper addresses theoretical issues associated with probabilistic partial least squares (PLS) regression. As in the case of factor analysis, the probabilistic PLS regression with unique variance suffers from the issues of improper solutions and lack of identifiability, both of which causes difficulties in interpreting latent variables and model parameters. Using the fact that the probabilistic PLS regression can be viewed as a special case of factor analysis, we apply a norm constraint prescription on the factor loading matrix in the probabilistic PLS regression, which was recently proposed in the context of factor analysis to avoid improper solutions. Then, we prove that the probabilistic PLS regression with this norm constraint is identifiable. We apply the probabilistic PLS regression to data on amino acid mutations in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) protease to demonstrate the validity of the norm constraint and to confirm the identifiability numerically. Utilizing the proposed constraint enables the visualization of latent variables via a biplot. We also investigate the sampling distribution of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) using synthetically generated data. We numerically observe that MLE is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed.

We revisit the multi-period newsvendor network problem, in which demands from multiple customers are correlated and jointly time-varying. Due to the curse of dimensionality associated with estimating the full joint demand distribution, we consider fluid approximation, a widely used approach for solving two-stage stochastic optimization problems such as large-scale service-system design. However, replacing the underlying random distribution (e.g., the demand distribution) with its mean (e.g., the time-varying average arrival rate) introduces bias in performance estimation and can lead to suboptimal decisions. In this paper, we investigate how to identify an alternative point statistic, not necessarily the mean, such that substituting this statistic into the two-stage newsvendor network problem yields an optimal decision. We refer to this statistic as the decision-corrected point estimate (a time-varying arrival rate). Although the critical fractile is well known to be the decision-corrected point forecast for the single-item newsvendor problem, counterexamples show that such a point statistic may not exist for newsvendor networks. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of such a corrected point estimate and propose an algorithm for computing it. Numerical experiments on real data demonstrate that using the proposed decision-corrected point forecast in fluid approximation achieves substantially lower cost than traditional fluid approximation and sample average approximation benchmarks.