Papers

Consistency Models (CMs) have shown promise for efficient one-step generation. However, most existing CMs rely on manually designed discretization schemes, which can cause repeated adjustments for different noise schedules and datasets. To address this, we propose a unified framework for the automatic and adaptive discretization of CMs, formulating it as an optimization problem with respect to the discretization step. Concretely, during the consistency training process, we propose using local consistency as the optimization objective to ensure trainability by avoiding excessive discretization, and taking global consistency as a constraint to ensure stability by controlling the denoising error in the training target. We establish the trade-off between local and global consistency with a Lagrange multiplier. Building on this framework, we achieve adaptive discretization for CMs using the Gauss-Newton method. We refer to our approach as ADCMs. Experiments demonstrate that ADCMs significantly improve the training efficiency of CMs, achieving superior generative performance with minimal training overhead on both CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Moreover, ADCMs exhibit strong adaptability to more advanced DM variants. Code is available at https://github.com/rainstonee/ADCM.

Nonparametric Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework for clustering without pre-specifying the number of groups, yet they are well known to overestimate the number of clusters, especially for functional data. We show that a fundamental cause of this phenomenon lies in misspecification of the error structure: errors are conventionally assumed to be independent across observed points in Bayesian functional models. Through high-dimensional clustering theory, we demonstrate that ignoring the underlying correlation leads to excess clusters regardless of the flexibility of prior distributions. Guided by this theory, we propose incorporating the underlying correlation structures via Gaussian processes and also present its scalable approximation with principled hyperparameter selection. Numerical experiments illustrate that even simple clustering based on Dirichlet processes performs well once error dependence is properly modeled.

Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs in the observational study is crucial but challenging, due to the presence of unmeasured confounding. While previous methods employed the negative controls to adjust for the confounding bias, they were either restricted to the discrete setting (i.e., all variables are discrete) or relied on strong assumptions for identification. To address these problems, we develop a general nonparametric approach that accommodates both discrete and continuous settings for testing causal hypothesis under unmeasured confounders. By using only a single negative control outcome (NCO), we establish a new identification result based on a newly proposed integral equation that links the outcome and NCO, requiring only the completeness and mild regularity conditions. We then propose a kernel-based testing procedure that is more efficient than existing moment-restriction methods. We derive the asymptotic level and power properties for our tests. Furthermore, we examine cases where our procedure using only NCO fails to achieve identification, and introduce a new procedure that incorporates a negative control exposure (NCE) to restore identifiability. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive simulations and real-world data from the Intensive Care Data and World Values Survey.

We introduce a novel regularization scheme for autoencoders based on matricial free energy. Our approach defines a differentiable loss function in terms of the singular values of the code matrix (code dimension x batch size). From the standpoint of free probability an d random matrix theory, this loss achieves its minimum when the singular value distribution of the code matrix coincides with that of an appropriately sculpted random metric with i.i.d. Gaussian entries. Empirical simulations demonstrate that minimizing the negative matricial free energy through standard stochastic gradient-based training yields Gaussian-like codes that generalize across training and test sets. Building on this foundation, we propose a matricidal free energy maximizing autoencoder that reliably produces Gaussian codes and show its application to underdetermined inverse problems.

We study online learning in finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the challenging aggregate bandit feedback model, where the learner observes only the cumulative loss incurred in each episode, rather than individual losses at each state-action pair. While prior work in this setting has focused exclusively on worst-case analysis, we initiate the study of best-of-both-worlds (BOBW) algorithms that achieve low regret in both stochastic and adversarial environments. We propose the first BOBW algorithms for episodic tabular MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback. In the case of known transitions, our algorithms achieve $O(\log T)$ regret in stochastic settings and ${O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret in adversarial ones. Importantly, we also establish matching lower bounds, showing the optimality of our algorithms in this setting. We further extend our approach to unknown-transition settings by incorporating confidence-based techniques. Our results rely on a combination of FTRL over occupancy measures, self-bounding techniques, and new loss estimators inspired by recent advances in online shortest path problems. Along the way, we also provide the first individual-gap-dependent lower bounds and demonstrate near-optimal BOBW algorithms for shortest path problems with bandit feedback.

How can we assess the reliability of a dataset without access to ground truth? We introduce the problem of reliability scoring for datasets collected from potentially strategic sources. The true data are unobserved, but we see outcomes of an unknown statistical experiment that depends on them. To benchmark reliability, we define ground-truth-based orderings that capture how much reported data deviate from the truth. We then propose the Gram determinant score, which measures the volume spanned by vectors describing the empirical distribution of the observed data and experiment outcomes. We show that this score preserves several ground-truth-based reliability orderings and, uniquely up to scaling, yields the same reliability ranking of datasets regardless of the experimen – a property we term experiment agnosticism. Experiments on synthetic noise models, CIFAR-10 embeddings, and real employment data demonstrate that the Gram determinant score effectively captures data quality across diverse observation processes.

Competing risks data refer to situations where the occurrence of one event pre- cludes the possibility of other events happening, resulting in multiple mutually exclusive events. This data type is commonly encountered in medical research and clinical trials, exploring the interplay between different events and informing decision-making in fields such as healthcare and epidemiology. We develop a penal- ized variable selection procedure to handle such complex data in an interval-censored setting. We consider a broad class of semiparametric transformation regression mod- els, including popular models such as proportional and non-proportional hazards models. To promote sparsity and select variables specific to each event, we employ the broken adaptive ridge (BAR) penalty. This approach allows us to simultane- ously select important risk factors and estimate their effects for each event under investigation. We establish the oracle property of the BAR procedure and evaluate its performance through simulation studies. The proposed method is applied to a real-life HIV cohort dataset, further validating its applicability in practice.

Regression with non-Euclidean responses—e.g., probability distributions, networks, symmetric positive-definite matrices, and compositions—has become increasingly important in modern applications. In this paper, we propose deep Fréchet neural networks (DFNNs), an end-to-end deep learning framework for predicting non-Euclidean responses—which are considered as random objects in a metric space—from Euclidean predictors. Our method utilizes the representation-learning power of deep neural networks (DNNs) to the task of approximating conditional Fréchet means of the response given the predictors, the metric-space analogue of conditional expectations, by minimizing a Fréchet risk. The framework is highly flexible, accommodating diverse metrics and high-dimensional predictors. We establish a universal approximation theorem for DFNNs, advancing the state-of-the-art of neural network approximation theory to general metric-space-valued responses, without making model assumptions or relying on local smoothing. We further establish rigorous generalization guarantees for DFNNs and derive corresponding risk bounds, providing, to the best of our knowledge, the first such theoretical results for deep learning regression with metric-space-valued responses. Empirical studies on synthetic distributional and network-valued responses, as well as real-world applications to predicting compositional responses in an Aitchison simplex and spherical responses, demonstrate that DFNNs consistently outperform all existing methods.

Mean-field variational inference (MFVI) is a widely used method for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions by product measures. It has been empirically observed that MFVI optimizers often suffer from mode collapse. For example, when the target measure $\pi$ is a mixture $\pi = w P_0 + (1 - w) P_1$, the MFVI optimizer tends to place most of its mass near a single component of the mixture. This work provides the first theoretical explanation of mode collapse in MFVI. Starting from two-component mixtures, we introduce the notion of \emph{$\varepsilon$-separateness} to quantify the separation of the mixture components. We derive explicit bounds on the mass that any MFVI optimizer assigns to each component, when $P_0$ and $P_1$ are $\varepsilon$-separated for sufficiently small $\varepsilon$. We further extend this analysis to mixture target distributions with multiple components. Our results reveal that the occurrence of mode collapse crucially depends on the relative position of the components. To address this issue, we propose rotational variational inference (RoVI), which augments MFVI with a rotation matrix. The numerical studies support our theoretical findings and illustrate improved mode coverage with RoVI in Bayesian mixture posteriors, including a real-data example.

Type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment can benefit from personalized lifestyle prescriptions. However, the delivery of personalized lifestyle medicine prescriptions is limited by the shortage of trained professionals and the variability in physicians' expertise. We propose an offline contextual bandit approach that learns individualized lifestyle prescriptions from the aggregated NHANES profiles of 119,555 participants by minimizing the Magni glucose risk-reward function. The model encodes patient status and generates lifestyle medicine prescriptions, which are trained using a mixed-action Soft Actor-Critic algorithm. The task is treated as a single-step contextual bandit. The model is validated against lifestyle medicine prescriptions issued by three certified physicians from Xiangya Hospital. These results demonstrate that offline mixed-action SAC can generate risk-aware lifestyle medicine prescriptions from cross-sectional NHANES data, warranting prospective clinical validation.

This paper tackles the challenging problem of jointly inferring time-varying network topologies and imputing missing data from partially observed graph signals. We propose a unified non-convex optimization framework to simultaneously recover a sequence of graph Laplacian matrices while reconstructing the unobserved signal entries. Unlike conventional decoupled methods, our integrated approach facilitates a bidirectional flow of information between the graph and signal domains, yielding superior robustness, particularly in high missing-data regimes. To capture realistic network dynamics, we introduce a fused-lasso type regularizer on the sequence of Laplacians. This penalty promotes temporal smoothness by penalizing large successive changes, thereby preventing spurious variations induced by noise while still permitting gradual topological evolution. For solving the joint optimization problem, we develop an efficient Proximal Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (PADMM) algorithm, which leverages the problem's structure to yield closed-form solutions for both the graph and signal subproblems. This design ensures scalability to large-scale networks and long time horizons. On the theoretical front, despite the inherent non-convexity, we establish a convergence guarantee, proving that the proposed PADMM scheme converges to a stationary point. Furthermore, we derive non-asymptotic statistical guarantees, providing high-probability error bounds for the graph estimator as a function of sample size, signal smoothness, and the intrinsic temporal variability of the graph. Extensive numerical experiments validate the approach, demonstrating that it significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both convergence speed and the joint accuracy of graph learning and signal recovery.

When measurements fall below or above a detection threshold, the resulting data are missing not at random (MNAR), posing challenges for statistical analysis. For example, in longitudinal biomarker studies, observations may be subject to detection limits. Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) is commonly used method for dimension reduction of dense and sparse data measured along a continuum, but standard approaches typically ignore MNAR mechanisms by imputing detection limit values, leading to biased estimates of principal components and scores. Building on recent work by Liu and Houwing-Duistermaat (2022, 2023), who proposed estimators for the mean and covariance functions under detection limits, we extend FPCA to accommodate functional data affected by such limits. We derive the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators and assess their performance through simulations, comparing them to standard methods. Finally, we illustrate our approach using longitudinal biomarker data subject to detection limits. Our method yields more accurate estimates of functional principal components and scores, enhancing the reliability of functional data analysis in the presence of detection limits.

In many business settings, task-specific labeled data are scarce or costly to obtain, limiting supervised learning on a target task. A classical response is transfer learning (TL). Many TL works study how to transfer information from related sources. We study, for linear regression and classification, when to transfer via sample sharing: in a multi-source setting, we greedily decide from which sources and how many samples to incorporate into the target dataset. Our method uses an accept/reject rule based on a data-dependent estimate of the transfer gain, i.e the marginal decrease in target predictive error, computed conditionally on the observed target samples. We analyze our approach and show that how the derived statistical test enforces positive transfer with high probability. Under additional standard conditions, we also study the transfer gain itself and characterize when transfer is beneficial. Experiments on synthetic and real data show consistent gains over classical and recent strong baselines while avoiding negative transfer.

Recent causal inference literature has introduced causal effect decompositions to quantify sources of observed inequalities or disparities in outcomes, but these approaches are typically limited to pairwise comparisons. In healthcare delivery settings, both the exposure of interest-hospital or healthcare unit-and sociodemographic group membership may be polytomous, making pairwise contrasts inadequate. We therefore take the observed variance in care delivery outcomes as the quantity of interest and develop a new causal variance decomposition framework for this setting. The proposed framework attributes the observed variation to eight components, including novel terms characterizing modification of hospital effects by sociodemographic group membership, hospital access or selection, and the correlation between these two sources of heterogeneity. We discuss the causal interpretation of these components, propose both parametric and nonparametric model-based estimators, and study their performance through simulation. Finally, we illustrate the method using data from the SEER program in an application to cervical cancer care delivery.

In the social sciences, small- to medium-scale datasets are common, and linear regression is canonical. In privacy-aware settings, much work has focused on differentially private (DP) linear regression, but mostly on point estimation with limited attention to uncertainty quantification. Meanwhile, synthetic data generation (SDG) is increasingly important for reproducibility studies, yet current DP linear regression methods do not readily support it. Mainstream DP-SDG approaches either are tailored to discrete or discretized data, making them less suitable for analyses involving continuous variables, or rely on deep learning models that require large datasets, limiting their use for the smaller-scale data typical in social science. We propose a method for linear regression with valid inference under Gaussian DP. It includes a bias-corrected estimator with asymptotic confidence intervals (CIs) and a general SDG procedure such that the corresponding regression on the synthetic data matches our DP linear regression procedure. Our approach is effective in small- to moderate-dimensional settings. Experiments show that our method (1) improves accuracy over existing methods for DP linear regression, (2) provides valid CIs, and (3) produces more reliable synthetic data for downstream statistical and machine learning tasks than current DP synthesizers.

We consider the estimation of a $d_1\times d_2\times d_3$ tensor $X^\star$ of Tucker rank $(r_1,r_2,r_3)$ from the nonlinear observations $\{y_i=f_i(\langle A_i,X^\star\rangle)\}_{i=1}^n$. We develop a unified approach that first constructs a gradient map from the data and then establishes the tensor restricted approximate invertibility condition (T-RAIC), a condition that quantifies how well the gradient map aligns with the ideal descent step under a low-rank tensor dual norm. We show that T-RAIC yields local linear convergence guarantees for a Riemannian gradient descent (RGD) algorithm, which may incorporate a normalization step if $\|X^\star\|_{\rm F}$ is known a priori. Under $O(r_1r_2r_3+\sum_{1\le i\le 3}r_id_i)$ Gaussian measurements, we establish T-RAICs for single-index models, logistic regression, phase retrieval, ReLU regression, and one-bit compressed sensing. The RAICs imply that RGD locally converges to $X^\star$ exactly in phase retrieval and ReLU regression, and up to near-optimal estimation errors in the remaining models. We further show that, in all these models except for phase retrieval, a simple spectral initialization yields the desired initialization from $O(d^{3/2})$ measurements under $d_1=d_2=d_3=d$ (ignoring dependence on the Tucker rank and condition number of $X^\star$). This is also the best known sample complexity for polynomial-time and end-to-end algorithms in tensor linear regression and tensor completion. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate our theoretical findings.

The remarkable success of machine learning (ML) in predictive tasks has led scientists to incorporate ML predictions as a core component of the scientific discovery pipeline. This was exemplified by the landmark achievement of AlphaFold (Jumper et al. (2021)). In this paper, we study how ML predictions can be safely used in statistical analysis of data towards scientific discovery. In particular, we follow the framework introduced by Angelopoulos et al. (2023). In this framework, we assume access to a small set of $n$ gold-standard labeled samples, a much larger set of $N$ unlabeled samples, and a ML model that can be used to impute the labels of the unlabeled data points. We introduce two new learning-augmented estimators: (1) Prediction-Augmented Residual Tree (PART), and (2) Prediction-Augmented Quadrature (PAQ). Both estimators have significant advantages over existing estimators like PPI and PPI++ introduced by Angelopoulos et al. (2023) and Angelopoulos et al. (2024), respectively. PART is a decision-tree based estimator built using a greedy criterion. We first characterize PART's asymptotic distribution and demonstrate how to construct valid confidence intervals. Then we show that PART outperforms existing methods in real-world datasets from ecology, astronomy, and census reports, among other domains. This leads to estimators with higher confidence, which is the result of using both the gold-standard samples and the machine learning predictions. Finally, we provide a formal proof of the advantage of PART by exploring PAQ, an estimation that arises when considering the limit of PART when the depth its tree grows to infinity. Under appropriate assumptions in the input data we show that the variance of PAQ shrinks at rate of $O(N^{-1} + n^{-4})$, improving significantly on the $O(N^{-1}+n^{-1})$ rate of existing methods.

The problem of the mean-square optimal linear estimation of the functional $A\xi=\ \int\limits_{R^s}a(t)\xi(-t)dt,$ which depends on the unknown values of stochastic stationary process $\xi(t)$ from observations of the process $\xi(t)+\eta(t)$ at points $t\in\mathbb{R} ^{-} \backslash S $, $S=\bigcup\limits_{l=1}^{s}[-M_{l}-N_{l}, \, \ldots, \, -M_{l} ],$ $R^s=[0,\infty) \backslash S^{+},$ $S^{+}=\bigcup\limits_{l=1}^{s}[ M_{l}, \, \ldots, \, M_{l}+N_{l}]$ is considered. Formulas for calculating the mean-square error and the spectral characteristic of the optimal linear estimate of the functional are proposed under the condition of spectral certainty, where spectral densities of the processes $\xi(t)$ and $\eta(t)$ are exactly known. The minimax (robust) method of estimation is applied in the case where spectral densities are not known exactly, but sets of admissible spectral densities are given. Formulas that determine the least favorable spectral densities and the minimax spectral characteristics are proposed for some special sets of admissible spectral densities.

The aim of this article is to overview the problem of mean square optimal estimation of linear functionals which depend on unknown values of periodically correlated stochastic process. Estimates are based on observations of this process and noise. These problems are investigated under conditions of spectral certainty and spectral uncertainty. Formulas for calculating the main characteristics (spectral characteristic, mean square error) of the optimal linear estimates of the functionals are proposed. The least favorable spectral densities and the minimax-robust spectral characteristics of optimal estimates of the functionals are presented for given sets of admissible spectral densities.

The problem of optimal estimation of functionals $A\xi =\sum\nolimits_{k=0}^{\infty }{}a(k)\xi (k)$ and ${{A}_{N}}\xi =\sum\nolimits_{k=0}^{N}{}a(k)\xi (k)$ which depend on the unknown values of stochastic sequence $\xi (k)$ with stationary $n$th increments is considered. Estimates are based on observations of the sequence $\xi (m)$ at points of time $m=-1,-2,\ldots$. Formulas for calculating the value of the mean square error and the spectral characteristic of the optimal linear estimates of the functionals are derived in the case where spectral density of the sequence is exactly known. Formulas that determine the least favorable spectral densities and minimax (robust) spectral characteristic of the optimal linear estimates of the functionals are proposed in the case where the spectral density of the sequence is not known but a set of admissible spectral densities is given.

In this paper we study Bayesian supervised learning models proposed by Lê in \cite{Le2025}. Using functoriality of probabilistic morphisms, we prove that sequential and batch Bayesian inversions coincide in supervised learning models with conditionally independent (possibly non-i.i.d.) data \cite{Le2025}. This equivalence holds without domination or discreteness assumptions on sampling operators. We derive a recursive formula for posterior predictive distributions, which reduces to the Kalman filter in Gaussian process regression. For Souslin label spaces $\mathcal{Y}$ and arbitrary input sets $\mathcal{X}$, we characterize probability measures on $\mathcal{P}(\mathcal{Y})^{\mathcal{X}}$ via projective systems, generalizing Orbanz \cite{Orbanz2011}. We revisit MacEachern's Dependent Dirichlet Processes (DDP) \cite{MacEachern2000} using copula-based constructions \cite{BJQ2012} and show how to compute posterior predictive distributions in universal Bayesian supervised models with DDP priors.

The recursive logit (RL) model provides a flexible framework for modeling sequential decision-making in transportation and choice networks, with important applications in route choice analysis, multiple discrete choice problems, and activity-based travel demand modeling. Despite its versatility, estimation of the RL model typically relies on nested fixed-point (NFXP) algorithms that are computationally expensive and prone to numerical instability. We propose a new approach that reformulates the maximum likelihood estimation problem as an optimization problem with equilibrium constraints, where both the structural parameters and the value functions are treated as decision variables. We further show that this formulation can be equivalently transformed into a conic optimization problem with exponential cones, enabling efficient solution using modern conic solvers such as MOSEK. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our convex reformulation achieves accuracy comparable to traditional methods while offering significant improvements in computational stability and efficiency, thereby providing a practical and scalable alternative for recursive logit model estimation.

This work develops a flexible inferential framework for nonparametric causal inference in time-to-event settings, based on stochastic interventions defined through multiplicative scaling of the intensity governing an intermediate event process. These interventions induce a family of estimands indexed by a scalar parameter {\alpha}, representing effects of modifying event rates while preserving the temporal and covariate-dependent structure of the observed data generating mechanism. To enhance interpretability, we introduce calibrated interventions, where {\alpha} is chosen to achieve a pre-specified goal, such as a desired level of cumulative risk of the intermediate event, and define corresponding composite target parameters capturing the downstream effects on the outcome process. This yields clinically meaningful contrasts while avoiding unrealistic deterministic intervention regimes. Under a nonparametric model, we derive efficient influence curves for {\alpha}-indexed, calibrated, and composite target parameters and establish their double robustness properties. We further sketch a targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) strategy that accommodates flexible, machine learning based nuisance estimation. The proposed framework applies broadly to (causal) questions involving time-to-event treatments or mediators and is illustrated through different examples event-history settings. A simulation study demonstrates finite-sample inferential properties, and highlights the implications of practical positivity violations when interventions extend beyond observed data support.

We study a variant of the simple hypothesis testing problem where observed samples do not necessarily come from either of the specified distributions, but rather from a close variant of them. In this setting, we require a test that is robust to misspecification and identifies which distribution is closer in Hellinger distance. If the underlying distribution is nearly equidistant from both hypotheses, the problem becomes intractable. Our main result is a lower bound on the slack factor, which quantifies how much closer the underlying distribution must be to one hypothesis relative to the other for any test to remain robust. We also demonstrate the implications of this result for testing with respect to symmetric chi-squared distance. Finally, we study an alternative way to specify robustness, where each hypothesis is a Hellinger ball around a fixed distribution. We provide and analyze a test for this composite hypothesis testing problem.

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric framework for mean-variance optimization that enables inference on economically motivated shape constraints in finance, including positivity, monotonicity, and convexity. Many central hypotheses in financial econometrics are naturally expressed as shape relations on latent functions (e.g., term premia, CAPM relations, and the pricing kernel), yet enforcing such constraints during estimation can mask economically meaningful violations; our approach therefore separates learning from validation by first estimating an unconstrained solution and then testing shape properties. We establish statistical properties of the regularized sample estimator and derive rigorous guarantees, including asymptotic consistency, a functional central limit theorem, and a finite-sample deviation bound achieving the Monte Carlo rate up to a regularization term. Building on these results, we construct a joint Wald-type statistic to test shape constraints on finite grids. An efficient algorithm based on a pivoted Cholesky factorization yields scalability to large datasets. Numerical studies, including an options-based asset-pricing application, illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method for evaluating monotonicity and convexity restrictions.

Complex systems are increasingly explored through simulation-driven workflows that combine physics-based and empirical models with optimization and analytics. Despite their power, these workflows face two central obstacles: high computational cost from repeated expensive simulator runs, and limited transparency when decisions rely on opaque black-box models. We propose a workflow that addresses both challenges by training lightweight emulators on compact designs of experiments that (i) provide fast, low-latency approximations of expensive simulators, (ii) enable rigorous uncertainty quantification, and (iii) support global and local eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) analyses. This work formalizes a methodological bridge accommodating continuous, categorical, and integer variables across diverse domains, from engineering design to socio-environmental agent-based models. To validate surrogate explanations and examine how faithfully they reflect simulator behavior, we introduce a comparative methodology incorporating active validation filters, including explanation consistency and aleatoric uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, we provide practical guidelines for coupling experimental designs with emulator training to select architectures that balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We demonstrate the framework across two contrasting paradigms: a deterministic multidisciplinary design simulation of a hybrid-electric aircraft and a stochastic agent-based simulation of urban segregation. Results show that coupling surrogates with XAI enables large-scale exploration in seconds, reveals critical nonlinear interactions, and highlights potential design and policy levers while establishing consistent explanations across architectures.

We obtain a reliability acceptance sampling plan for independent competing risk data under interval censoring schemes using the Bayesian approach. At first, the Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan is obtained where the decision criteria of accepting a lot is pre-fixed. For large samples, computing Bayes risk is computationally intensive. Therefore, an approximate Bayes risk is obtained using the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Lastly, the Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan is obtained, where the decision function is arbitrary. The manufacturer can derive an optimal decision function by minimizing the Bayes risk among all decision functions. This optimal decision function is known as Bayes decision function. The optimal sampling plan is obtained by minimizing the Bayes risk. The algorithms are provided for the computation of optimum Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plan. Numerical results are provided and comparisons between the Bayesian reliability acceptance sampling plans are carried out.

We study nonparametric regression and classification for path-valued data. We introduce a functional Nadaraya-Watson estimator that combines the signature transform from rough path theory with local kernel regression. The signature transform provides a principled way to encode sequential data through iterated integrals, enabling direct comparison of paths in a natural metric space. Our approach leverages signature-induced distances within the classical kernel regression framework, achieving computational efficiency while avoiding the scalability bottlenecks of large-scale kernel matrix operations. We establish finite-sample convergence bounds demonstrating favorable statistical properties of signature-based distances compared to traditional metrics in infinite-dimensional settings. We propose robust signature variants that provide stability against outliers, enhancing practical performance. Applications to both synthetic and real-world data - including stochastic differential equation learning and time series classification - demonstrate competitive accuracy while offering significant computational advantages over existing methods.

Matched sets may have unlike mean scores and spreads yet share the same way in which some scores stand apart. Mean gaps and raw-score correlations do not answer this question. Correlation of divergency, c_delta, is put forward to fill that gap. For every score in each of two equally sized, matched sets, it finds how far that score lies from every other score in its own set. It then draws these gaps into one divergence score through a power mean. The Pearson correlation between the two lists of divergence scores is c_delta, which lies between -1 and 1. A high positive value means that the same people or things stand out in both sets, no matter which way their raw scores point. A negative value means that a score far from the rest in one set tends to be matched with a score near the rest in the other, whilst a value near zero shows little linear link. As c_delta stems from within-set gaps, it is unchanged by shifts in overall level or units. It can show whether the same people feel sharply shut out in matched neighbourhood sets, whether the same bacterial strains grow oddly under two drugs, or whether the same proteins stand out in two drug-binding fingerprints. It should sit alongside means and raw-score correlations rather than take their place: c_delta does not show whether an outlier is high or low, nor why it arose. The power p sets the weight given to wide gaps. With p=1 it uses Gini distance, and with p=2 root-mean-square distance. Higher p gives more weight to the furthest gaps but cuts Kish's effective sample size. The raw scores and the choice of p must therefore be read with care.

The classical notion of causal effect identifiability is defined in terms of treatment and outcome variables. In this paper, we consider the identifiability of state-based causal effects: how an intervention on a particular state of treatment variables affects a particular state of outcome variables. We demonstrate that state-based causal effects may be identifiable even when variable-based causal effects may not. Moreover, we show that this separation occurs only when additional knowledge – such as context-specific independencies – is available. We further examine knowledge that constrains the states of variables, and show that such knowledge can improve both variable-based and state-based identifiability when combined with other knowledge such as context-specific independencies. We finally propose an approach for identifying causal effects under these additional constraints, and conduct empirical studies to further illustrate the separations between the two levels of identifiability.