Papers

The recent emergence of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has significantly advanced multi-step forecasting performance, enabling accurate predictions over extended future horizons. However, existing TSFMs often suffer from significantly inherent uncertainty, which typically manifests as derived forecast branches emerging at each time step and spreading to subsequent steps; different forecast branches often exhibit varying forecasting performance, thereby undermining the credibility of TSFM forecasts. In this paper, we propose the Slicing-Graphing-Alignment (SGA) method to quantify the uncertainty of multi-step TSFM forecasts. The proposed SGA first characterizes the topology of all potential forecast branches using a directed acyclic graph, such that the graph complexity bounds the uncertainty of multi-step forecasts, and then precisely measures the graph complexity by integrating both topological information and TSFM-inherent stochasticity. Experimental results conducted on 11 TSFMs and 27 datasets demonstrate that (i) SGA achieves the best performance when ranking predictive errors with uncertainty estimates; (ii) SGA works with a more extensive and more precise sampling coverage than those of existing UQ methods, deriving a quantification mechanism fundamentally different from those of established ones; and (iii) larger model scales of TSFMs correlate with lower uncertainty estimates of multi-step forecasts, suggesting another empirical scaling law for uncertainty quantification of multi-step TSFM forecasts.

Aggregation theory has traditionally focused on operators defined over vectors. However, many applications-including Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Group Decision Making, Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification Systems, and overlap/grouping indices-require aggregating information naturally structured as a matrix of membership degrees (e.g., where a set of objects interacts with a family of fuzzy sets). Despite this, no formal framework has been proposed for this class of operators, partly due to the common practice of flattening matrices into vectors (which discards structural information) and partly due to a reliance on decomposable operators that aggregate rows and columns sequentially. This paper addresses this gap by formalizing the notion of a matrix aggregation operator (MAO). We analyze the decomposability and symmetry properties of MAOs, showing that certain operators cannot be expressed in decomposable form and examining several notions of symmetry. Finally, we introduce a family of MAOs termed maximum entropy global coverage indices (MEGCIs), provide a construction method for them based on combining grouping functions and MEOWA operators, and illustrate their usefulness in cluster quality assessment through an extensive computational study.

Evaluating a stochastic large language model is costly: benchmark scores estimate expected performance from randomized rollouts, yet uniform repetition ignores sharp differences in task-level rollout variance. We ask how to minimize the variance of a fixed-benchmark mean under an exact rollout budget. We develop Speculative Evaluation with a Hierarchical Bayesian Neyman (HBN) policy with pilot size and stage weight jointly chosen ex ante. It runs a short uniform pilot, pools per-task success counts with a hierarchical Bayesian model, and uses posterior expectations of task-level sampling variances for exact positive-integer Neyman allocation. To mitigate the pilot synchronization barrier, HBN-async speculatively executes continuations from partial pilot feedback and retains those selected by the final allocation. Across six checkpoints and 18 benchmark groups, we evaluate 107 nondegenerate benchmark-checkpoint profiles. For rollout budgets of 8-64 per task, Speculative Evaluation reduces variance relative to Uniform by 12.8%-33.6% on average across profiles, outperforming hindsight-tuned empirical and independent Bayesian baselines. Real-generation experiments that account for the pilot synchronization barrier show that HBN-async mitigates its overhead, helping translate statistical efficiency into practical evaluation benefits.

When can a learner make only finitely many prediction errors along every infinite sequence labeled by a fixed, unknown hypothesis? We characterize this form of consistency for arbitrary binary hypothesis classes in ZFC, without requiring a uniform mistake bound. The characterization uses a single linear order on finite realizable traces. Each trace selects its least subtrace, and the order must satisfy two conditions: conflicting traces select different subtraces, and the order is well-founded on the traces of each fixed target. These conditions induce a learner whose selected evidence decreases on every mistake. Conversely, a consistent learner yields such an order through canonical mistake transcripts and the Kleene–Brouwer ordering. The result provides a representation of consistent prediction by finite evidence, answering a question of Lu (2024).

Generalized Langevin equations describe non-Markovian dynamics in which the evolution of resolved variables depends on their past. We propose a memory-conditioned diffusion method for learning stochastic flow maps of these dynamics from observed trajectories, without identifying a memory kernel or reconstructing unresolved variables. A compact, recursively updated bank of exponential filters enables the flow map to retain predictive history over multiple time scales without conditioning on long observation windows. The next-step distribution is conditioned on the current observation and this memory state, whose storage and update costs are independent of the history length for a fixed bank size. Predictive criteria guide the memory budget, with reference-assisted selection in the vector benchmark, and an optional linear projection further reduces the conditioning dimension. A kernel-based score estimator generates conditional samples without training a score network, and these samples are used to train a neural flow map for autoregressive simulation. Three numerical examples assess long-memory retention at small conditioning dimension, predictive compression in coupled vector dynamics, and non-Gaussian conditional distributions and intermittent events. The non-Gaussian example reproduces conditional asymmetry and burst statistics in a stochastic model of the plasma scrape-off layer.

Local geometric mixing localizes geometric mixing by requiring geometric convergence to equilibrium in total variation only over finitely many transitions. It accommodates local convergence rates and captures rapid local equilibration, even when global mixing is much slower. We establish and discuss local geometric mixing bounds through Dobrushin contraction. We then apply this approach to Diffusion Path Monte Carlo, a recently proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo method, aimed at leveraging advances in score-based modeling, whose ideal transitions coincide with those of the Proximal Sampler. Our analysis covers both the ideal method and its implementable Metropolis-adjusted counterpart, providing mixing guarantees under minimal assumptions. For the ideal method, these guarantees complement recent spectral gap estimates, which we develop into mixing time bounds.

LLM leaderboard gains can reflect selection among privately evaluated model variants, yet neither the number of variants nor their dependence is public. We ask how many hidden variants a published margin can support while retaining statistical evidence of a provider's advantage over a fixed comparator. For a fixed candidate family under a Gaussian margin model, we derive a sensitivity curve that reports this maximum count as a function of a lower bound on within-family correlation. The relevant correlation must match the score used for ranking and the sampling model: in a controlled family, pooled item correlation is 0.90, whereas composite-score correlation is 0.46 under item resampling and 0.92 when MMLU subjects are resampled. An item-based audit of 394 adjacent-rank claims on the Open LLM Leaderboard finds that 391 lack statistical support even before accounting for selection. Among claims that pass the uncorrected test, certification can depend on assumptions about the hidden family's correlation. The resulting curves make these assumptions explicit without estimating the unobserved search size.

We study the high-dimensional recovery of a signal vector $\mathbf{x}$ in the presence of sparse Wishart-like noise. We define an $N \times N$ matrix $A = J+(\theta/N)\mathbf{xx}^{\top}$, where $\mathbf{xx}^{\top}$ is the rank-one deformation of the random noise matrix $J$. We consider a Wishart-like matrix $J={X}^{\top} X$, where $X$ is a sparse $M \times N$ random matrix with entries $X_{ij} = c_{ij}W_{ij}$, with $c_{ij}$ regulating the density of non-zero elements, and $W_{ij}$ the bond weights. Using the replica method, we compute analytically the top eigenpair statistics of $A$, and their dependence on the signal strength $\theta$, the rectangularity ratio $\alpha=\sqrt{M/N}$, and the average connectivity of the noise. The spectral observables are expressed in terms of a system of Recursive Distributional Equations, which are efficiently solved via a Population Dynamics algorithm. They allow us to compute the average largest eigenvalue $\langle\lambda_1\rangle_{A}$, the average top eigenvector component density, and the average overlap between the top eigenvector of $A$ and $\mathbf{x}$. We identify a critical threshold $\theta_{\mathrm{crit}}$–depending on the average connectivity of the noise–that marks a BBP-like phase transition: below this value, $\langle\lambda_1\rangle_{A}$ is unaffected by the signal, and the overlap vanishes. Thus, the signal is not recoverable from the top eigenvector of $A$. For $\theta>\theta_{\mathrm{crit}}$, the signal-related outlier eigenvalue becomes $\langle\lambda_1\rangle_{A}$ and the overlap is nonzero, allowing for recovery of the signal. The results are in excellent agreement with numerical diagonalisation. We show that in the dense limit, the recovery threshold and eigen-statistics converge to the results predicted by the classical BBP transition for additive rank-one deformations of dense Wishart matrices.

Neural Processes (NPs) are model-based meta-learners that implicitly learn a stochastic process and adapt to a new task from a small context set. Most extensions of NPs focus on improving the neural network architecture. We instead develop an extension motivated by the shared hierarchical interpretation of meta-learning and mixed-effects models. Specifically, we introduce Neural Process Boosting (NPBoost), which decomposes structured response variability into tree-boosted fixed effects shared across tasks and NP random effects that capture stochastic task-to-task variation. We propose to train the two components jointly using a boosting algorithm in which an NP learns residual task-specific structure and a tree ensemble estimates common patterns across tasks. Across synthetic and real-world tabular meta-learning problems, this decomposition improves over a standard NP when the shared structure contains discontinuities or other irregular patterns that boosted trees can represent effectively.

Data assimilation estimates a dynamical state from partial and noisy observations. Classical ensemble filters are efficient but restrict analysis updates through finite sample covariance and affine Gaussian distribution. We introduce the Flow Ensemble Filter (FlowEF), which uses conditional flow matching to transport the forecast ensemble from a classical baseline filter to an analysis ensemble. FlowEF uses a localized Gaussian source during training, transports forecast ensemble members from a baseline filter at deployment, and conditions its velocity field on ensembles from that baseline filter and the observation. The proposed model therefore learns a nonlinear update while mapping each baseline ensemble independently. For sparsely observed dynamical systems, FlowEF improves both deterministic and probabilistic metrics over all four classical ensemble filters. It also achieves the best performance among the state-of-the-art generative data assimilation models.

Verified income is often unavailable in digital loan applications, forcing lenders to rely on reported income and potentially leading to over-lending, overly conservative offers, or rejection of creditworthy applicants. Cross-institutional data-sharing constraints make this problem especially difficult for smaller lenders with limited training data. We introduce FedIncome, a federated learning framework for income estimation that enables institutions to train a shared model without pooling raw borrower records. Using more than one million LendingClub loans partitioned into $50$ state-level clients, we simulate a heterogeneous lending consortium. The best federated model achieves out-of-time $R^2=0.608$, compared with $0.619$ for a pooled centralised benchmark. Small-sample clients obtain an average out-of-time $R^2$ improvement of $3.8$ percentage points relative to the pooled centralised benchmark, while the fitted client-level relationship places the empirical crossover at approximately $4,790$ training observations in this setting. When pooling is infeasible and the relevant alternative is local-only training, federation improves out-of-time performance across all sample-size groups, with the largest gains for data-scarce clients. We also combine federated income estimates with state- and income-specific debt-to-income thresholds. In a retrospective decision analysis, replacing reported income with the federated estimate increases simulated approval rates with only modest changes in observed default rates. FedIncome supports collaborative learning under data-locality constraints with little aggregate loss relative to pooled training and larger gains relative to local-only estimation.

Score-based diffusion models are increasingly considered in settings where the underlying data distribution may differ from the training distribution, yet existing theoretical guarantees largely focus on the no-shift setting. In this work, we study robust score estimation under Wasserstein perturbations of a reference distribution. For the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck diffusion, we show that robust estimation decomposes into two fundamental components: the statistical cost of learning the reference distribution and the intrinsic cost of distribution shift. The latter scales quadratically with the Wasserstein radius, and this dependence is minimax optimal. We construct an explicit finite-sample estimator achieving the resulting robust minimax rate without knowing the shift radius. When the reference distribution lies on an unknown low-dimensional subspace, the statistical term adapts to the intrinsic dimension while the shift cost remains unchanged. Finally, we show that the same decomposition governs positive-time reverse sampling and obtain matching minimax guarantees in KL divergence. Together, these results characterize how finite data, intrinsic dimension, and distribution shift affect the robustness of score-based diffusion models.

Multi-constraint instruction following requires a model to respond to a query under many simultaneously active constraints. Even strong instruction-tuned models still routinely violate some of them. Existing approaches either augment supervision with sequence- or token-level RL rewards from external verifiers or learned graders, or use on-policy distillation (OPD) against a single full-context teacher whose probability mass becomes diluted as more constraints become simultaneously active. We propose CC-OPD (Counterfactual Constraint-Conditioned On-Policy Distillation), which inverts the standard supervision-generation direction in distillation. Rather than enriching the teacher with information beyond what the student sees, CC-OPD ablates each constraint from the teacher's conditioning in turn, and constructs the per-constraint signal from the resulting per-token probability differentials. The resulting per-token leave-one-out log-likelihood shifts are summed, clipped, and added to the vanilla OPD reward as a token-level shaping term. All shaping terms are obtained from the frozen teacher, without an external verifier during distillation, and the reward equals vanilla OPD wherever the aggregate shift is zero. Across two Qwen model pairs and seven benchmarks, CC-OPD achieves the highest average among all evaluated student-training methods. A 1.5B student trained with CC-OPD surpasses its own 7B RL-trained teacher on the MulDimIF benchmark.

Conventional score-based diffusion models learn scores without representing normalized densities, whereas tractable normalized models support both sampling and direct likelihood evaluation. A recent tensor-network approach provides such a representation but is largely restricted to low-dimensional lattices. Here we introduce a discrete diffusion model that parameterizes normalized probability distributions using variational autoregressive networks. Explicit Markov jump operators govern the forward noising and reverse denoising dynamics, extending discrete diffusion models with normalized distributions to spin systems on higher-dimensional lattices. We apply this framework to the two- and three-dimensional Ising models across ordered, critical, and disordered regimes, accurately computing thermodynamic quantities including free energy, energy, and magnetization. We further integrate the framework with Monte Carlo sampling, using adaptive diffusion steps to maintain high acceptance rates even at low temperatures while enhancing sample diversity. These results establish a neural-network framework for the discrete diffusion model with normalized probability distributions.

We study multitask regression when coefficient sharing can differ by predictor. For a given predictor, many tasks may have the same coefficient while a few differ, and the exceptional tasks need not be the same for another predictor. We describe this structure by two quantities: the number of active predictors and the total number of task coefficients that differ from the most common value for their predictor. We estimate the coefficient matrix by penalizing all pairwise coefficient differences across tasks, with an additional group penalty when predictor selection is needed. The resulting upper and lower bounds have the same dependence on these two quantities. We also consider the stronger setting in which a large set of tasks shares one entire coefficient vector. Under explicit sample-size conditions, the same pairwise estimator pools those tasks exactly, while allowing the remaining tasks to differ. Simulations and household energy data illustrate the transition between broad sharing and task-specific coefficients.

We study causal discovery where each node is a random function. Previous studies on this topic rely on structural assumptions, e.g., linearity or non-linearity, and distributional assumptions, e.g., Gaussianity or non-Gaussianity. In contrast, we make use of covariance operators to avoid these assumptions. Under functional additive noise models, we propose a new sufficient condition to identify a valid topological ordering based on comparing norms of conditional covariance operators. Taking advantage of this identifiability condition, we develop a new mixed regression model that subsumes linear and non-linear models. Together with variable selection, our procedure yields an estimation of the causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) for functional variables. In theory, we develop the least-squares-type theory of this regression model, and derive asymptotic consistency of order determination, sparse regression, as well as identifying the DAG. Computational algorithms based on discrete observations are provided. Applied to simulated data, our approach performs satisfactorily among existing approaches. A real data example of brain effective connectivity is also presented.

This work revisits a fundamental question in active learning: how powerful is the ability to synthesize arbitrary queries? Compared to pool-based active learning, where the learner only selects queries from a given unlabeled pool, we find that this seemingly mild change in query ability may dramatically alter the difficulty of statistical learning. In particular, some hypothesis classes that are inherently slow to learn in the pool-based setting, achieving only polynomial error decay in the number of samples, become exponentially learnable once synthesized queries are allowed. This striking gap suggests that membership query synthesis induces a fundamentally different mode of learning, one that is not adequately captured by existing active learning theory and calls for new analytical tools to characterize its complexity. Motivated by this phenomenon, we develop several sufficient conditions, present intriguing examples, and propose a conjectural perspective toward understanding which hypothesis classes admit efficient learning through synthesized queries.

Prediction with expert advice is a fundamental problem in online learning. When the time horizon $T$ is known in advance, the minimax cumulative regret over $n$ experts is asymptotically $\sqrt{\frac{T \ln n}{2}}$. This is achieved by the Multiplicative Weights Update algorithm with a learning rate tuned to $T$, and is known to be tight. If instead the regret bound is required to hold simultaneously at every time $t$, the best known guarantee has been $\sqrt{t \ln n}$—a factor of $\sqrt{2}$ worse—and it has remained unknown whether this factor of $\sqrt{2}$ is necessary. We show that it is not. We give an algorithm, requiring no knowledge of the horizon, whose cumulative regret satisfies $R_t \le \bigl(1 + O(\sqrt{\ln \ln n / \ln n})\bigr)\sqrt{t \ln n / 2}$ simultaneously for every $t \ge 1$.

Estimating the causal effects of medical treatments is difficult when clinically important outcomes are costly to measure or require long follow-up. Short-term or inexpensive surrogate outcomes offer a potential alternative, but surrogate biomarkers may be unavailable or difficult to identify. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled increasingly accurate prediction of clinical outcomes from inexpensive, high-dimensional measurements, which creates an opportunity to use AI predictions themselves as surrogates. To this end, we develop a framework for estimating treatment effects from paired measurements obtained before and after treatment for each treated individual. A pretrained AI model is applied to the before and after measurements, and our estimator compares the resulting outcome predictions. We characterize the technical assumptions under which this within-person contrast identifies the average treatment effect on the treated, even when clinical outcomes are never observed for treated individuals. When these assumptions cannot be justified, we use prediction-powered inference to correct bias using a small number of observed clinical outcomes and obtain valid inference. Synthetic and real-world cardio-oncology experiments demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the approach.

We study distribution-free sequential changepoint detection for independent observations with unknown and unrestricted pre- and post-change laws. We build on the conformal test martingales and associated e-detectors of Vovk(2021), which control the probability of false alarm (PFA) and the average run length (ARL) respectively. The majority of these works focus on validity, with statistical efficiency usually left for simulations. We develop a comprehensive theory of how conformal p-values behave under non-exchangeable data with a changepoint at an unknown time $T$. We use this to analyze the post-change growth and resulting detection delay of conformal martingale methods, and prove that the standard existing methods are suboptimal for PFA and ARL control, and can lead to delays that are $\Omega(T)$ and $\Omega(\sqrt{\text{ARL}})$ respectively. We propose different conformal e-processes and e-detectors that are provably minimax optimal, with delays $\Theta(\log T)$ and $\Theta(\log \text{ARL})$ respectively, and have much shorter delays in simulations.

We analyze a simple stochastic inertial Krasnosel'skii–Mann (iKM) method for finding a fixed point of a nonexpansive operator in a real Hilbert space. Our method is obtained simply by adding two inertial extrapolations to stochastic KM [Bravo and Cominetti, 2024], and it retains one call to a possibly biased stochastic oracle per update and achieves sharp rates in both the stochastic and deterministic regimes. Specifically, with our proposed parameter schedule, we prove the following last-iterate fixed-point residual bound: \[ {O}\!\left(\frac{1}{K} +\frac{\sigma\log K}{\sqrt K} +\frac{B_K\log K}{K}\right), \] where $K$ is the horizon, $\sigma$ is the noise level and $B_K$ is the accumulated root-mean-square bias. When $B_K=O(\sqrt K)$, this yields $\widetilde O(\epsilon^{-2})$ sample complexity that matches, up to a logarithmic factor, the stochastic-oracle lower bound given under the unbiased subclass of our model [Foster et al., 2019, Theorem 2]. It also improves the best-known $O(\epsilon^{-4})$ random-iterate guarantee for stochastic KM [Bravo and Cominetti, 2024, Corollary 5.4]. To our knowledge, this is the first single-loop method for general nonexpansive fixed-point problems to attain this near-optimal sample complexity without variance reduction or batching. When the oracle is exact, the same method attains the worst-case-optimal $O(K^{-1})$ last-iterate residual rate [Park and Ryu, 2022, Theorem 4.6], improving the $O(K^{-1/2})$ rate of classical KM [Cominetti et al., 2014; Bravo and Cominetti, 2018].

Modern conformal forecasting systems often maintain several adaptive pipelines that differ in base forecasters, conformity scores, calibration windows, and update rules. Comparing them is difficult because coverage is a hard constraint, whereas efficiency should be optimized only among feasible pipelines. We formulate this problem as sequential inference for a stochastic constrained argmin. At each time, the target is the set of minimum-cost pipelines satisfying multiple prefix-average conditional miscoverage constraints. We introduce Coverage-Constrained Sequential Model Confidence Sets (CC-SMCS), which separate certifiably feasible, possibly feasible, and possibly constrained-optimal pipelines. Using simultaneous martingale confidence sequences, CC-SMCS projects a rectangular confidence region onto the constrained argmin and admits an exact closed-form rule. With probability at least $1-\delta$, it contains every constrained-optimal pipeline simultaneously over all times. This finite-sample guarantee requires no stationarity or mixing assumptions and remains valid under data-dependent stopping. We also establish an impossibility result for safe certification at the coverage boundary and extend the construction to delayed multi-horizon feedback and outcome-dependent efficiency objectives.

Before acting upon an unobservable physical system, an autonomous agent must determine which latent distinctions govern downstream tasks, how many active interventions are necessary to certify them, and when to abstain to prevent catastrophic errors. Classical observability treats state reconstruction as an unconditioned binary predicate, failing when passive observations cannot break latent degeneracies without perturbation, full microscopic inversion is prohibitively costly, and distinguishing task-irrelevant degrees of freedom wastes interaction budgets. We formalize task-conditioned active observability complexity: the minimum worst-case expected interaction cost required to identify task-relevant states under certified error and safe abstention guarantees. We prove that task-predictive equivalence induces the unique minimal sufficient quotient $\mathcal{H}/\!\sim_\tau$, leaving active observability complexity strictly invariant while eliminating superfluous distinctions. In deterministic regimes, this complexity is characterized by an optimal adaptive distinguishing tree and Bellman recursion; in noisy regimes, it obeys a stopped-transcript relative-entropy lower bound and adaptive martingale certificates that compose without independence assumptions. We instantiate a prospective certified observer with staged recovery: a nominal verifier defers candidate compilation, triggering active probing only upon evidence, while a history-measurable score shell prunes hypotheses without sacrificing risk bounds. Stress audits across high-dimensional physical systems and thousands of operational trials demonstrate certified state recovery with zero false acceptances and substantial reductions in sensor reads and model steps.

With recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) and LLM-based agents, these agents are becoming increasingly autonomous and gaining broader access to act on users' behalf on the internet. However, the vulnerability of automated agents deployed on social media platforms (e.g., for managing a user's personal account) remains underexplored. Existing studies on agent poisoning typically assume that the adversary can expose poisoned content to the agent. Although such an attack is direct and effective, it is more easily detected and mitigated. In the context of social media platforms, this leaves open whether the recommendation system itself would surface such content to the agent in a more subtle manner. Through theoretical analysis, we show that the like-score mechanism used in OASIS can be exploited, and we characterize the conditions under which a multi-stage chain of poisoned posts can steer the agent's feed. Based on these insights, we further develop an algorithm that crafts realistic poisoned posts. Experiments support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Notably, by exploiting the like-score feedback loop, the attack causes the recommendation system to select poisoned posts even when their user-post similarity falls below the retrieval threshold.

Reward fine-tuning aims to update a pre-trained flow-based generative model to improve the downstream reward of its generated samples. Existing methods typically formulate this problem as sampling from a reward-tilted distribution, the solution to a KL-regularized reward-maximization problem. Here, we introduce an optimal transport regularizer built directly from the pre-trained drift. Unlike KL reward tilting, the resulting objective transports individual samples toward higher reward rather than reweighting the base distribution. We show that the resulting problem is equivalent to a deterministic optimal control problem on the flow. Given a pre-trained flow map, this equivalence yields a simulation-free reinforcement learning algorithm for fine-tuning generative flows. We call the resulting framework Wasserstein-Tilted Flow Maps (WTF), the first end-to-end fine-tuning recipe native to flow maps. The output is a fine-tuned flow map that retains strong reward-aligned performance at few-step inference budgets without post-hoc distillation. Experiments on ImageNet-256 and text-to-image show that WTF achieves higher reward with comparable or higher diversity than baselines, while requiring up to $280\times$ less training compute. More broadly, we argue that accelerated samplers such as flow maps are essential infrastructure for efficient post-training, and that the dominant KL-regularized formulation is only one of many choices worth revisiting.

We study online inverse linear optimization with a fixed unknown linear utility: in each round, an environment presents a compact action set, the learner recommends an action from it, and the environment returns an action that maximizes the utility over the same set. When the utility vector and the actions lie in the $d$-dimensional Euclidean unit ball, we give a randomized algorithm whose regret—the cumulative utility shortfall relative to optimal actions—is $O(\sqrt d)$ in expectation for every time horizon, without knowledge of the horizon. The dependence on $d$ is optimal up to a constant factor by the known $\Omega(\sqrt d)$ lower bound for horizons $T\ge d$. Our algorithm maintains matrix multiplicative weights on polynomial feature spaces at geometrically spaced scales. It selects a recommendation distribution by solving a linear program and updates its score matrices by comparing the available actions with the feedback action. With rational oracle outputs and feedback actions, an implementation computable relative to a linear-optimization oracle preserves the $O(\sqrt d)$ regret bound. Whether the same rate is attainable with running time polynomial in the dimension, horizon, and input length remains open.

We introduce Rolling Conformal Prediction (rolling-CP), a distribution-free predictive inference method for the setting of sequential model training. Specifically, given a data stream $(X_1,Y_1),(X_2,Y_2),\dots$, at each time $n$ the trained model may depend on the observed history $\{(X_i,Y_i)\}_{i<n}$. This setting arises naturally in modern sequential training, including one-pass training over massive datasets and continual fine-tuning or test-time adaptation of language models during deployment. Rolling-CP first calibrates each incoming observation against the current predictor and then rolls it into future training. In this way, we avoid the need for data splitting. Remarkably, although the models at times $n=1,2,\dots$ may have entirely different properties and accuracy levels, for exchangeable data it is nonetheless possible to establish a guarantee of marginal coverage, with a familiar universal factor-two guarantee (a worst case guarantee of $1-2\alpha$ coverage, as compared to the target level $1-\alpha$), without any assumptions of stability or any restrictions on the model training process. For i.i.d. data streams, we further prove high-probability training-conditional validity uniformly over time; under stability conditions, coverage guarantees sharpen towards $1-\alpha$. Numerical experiments on sequential regression, multiclass SGD, and one-pass neural-network training further demonstrate the practical effectiveness of rolling-CP.

This article is motivated by an imaging application from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, aiming to predict task-based brain activation maps from t-fMRI using cortical metrics from structural MRI (s-MRI) and brain connectivity data from resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI). Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is well-suited for integrating diverse imaging data and quantifying prediction uncertainty. However, progress in this field is limited due to challenges in designing joint priors that capture the structures and interconnections between different imaging modalities, along with computational complexity and lack of theoretical assurances. To address these challenges, the article introduces a novel regression framework that treats t-fMRI and s-MRI images as functional data, incorporating additive non-linear effects of both network and functional predictors on the functional response. Specifically, we employ Gaussian process (GP) priors on coefficients related to the functional predictors to capture their intricate functional dependencies with the response. Furthermore, a GP prior is assigned to encapsulate the non-linear nodal effects of the network predictor on the response function. The method is supported by theoretical results on predictive accuracy for the functional response, and is empirically validated through simulation studies and analysis of multi-modal neuroimaging data from the ABCD study.

Residual-based adaptive GMsFEM for high-contrast elliptic problems repeatedly evaluates local weighted $H^{-1}$ indicators on every coarse neighborhood, making indicator evaluation a recurring cost in repeated-query settings. We introduce a non-intrusive Gaussian-process (GP) surrogate for the indicator scores used in Dörfler marking. The operational predictor is the GP posterior mean, algebraically equivalent to a kernel ridge regression (KRR) estimator under the stated convention; it uses compressed local solution and spectral features without changing the multiscale solve, local spectral construction, or basis enrichment. A nonuniform perturbed-marking result quantifies how pointwise score errors affect the exact indicator mass captured by surrogate-selected neighborhoods, while a conditional bounded-discrepancy KRR pathway identifies sufficient assumptions for such score bounds. In controlled held-out in-distribution tests, the surrogate-guided method gives error-versus-DoF trends comparable with classical $H^{-1}$-residual offline adaptivity and evaluates the online indicator component 2.0-2.1 times faster, excluding offline data generation and GP training.

We study decentralized partially observable team decision problems with low-rank latent dynamics and unknown system models. The proposed framework combines team-theoretic equivalence with low-rank model representations to address cooperative decision-making in partially observable Markov decision processes without prior knowledge of the transition model. Each team member makes decisions based on local private information and delayed common information shared across the team. Using only this available information, each member learns an approximate low-rank Markov decision process and applies least-squares value iteration to compute its policy. This yields a fully decentralized learning and planning algorithm that requires neither a centralized coordinator nor centralized training. We show that the resulting member-side solutions approximate the centralized team solution: despite partial observability, unknown dynamics, and delayed common information, each member recovers the corresponding component of an approximate team-optimal policy. We further establish finite-sample performance guarantees and derive a corresponding sample-complexity bound for the proposed algorithm.