Papers

Clustering is an unsupervised learning technique that partitions unlabeled data into groups. Most existing methods require user-specified parameters, such as the number of clusters or neighborhood size. Conversely, we propose automatic depth-based local center clustering (A-DLCC), a fully data-driven method that eliminates numerical parameter tuning. A-DLCC uses the $\beta$-integrated local depth to identify stable exemplars, points consistently central across multiple locality levels, termed local centers, which are ranked by their representativeness. Each local center induces a group of similar points, with group-level similarity measured by a proposed nonparametric metric called group-level local similarity. To guide merging, we incorporate the bottleneck path idea from graph theory, which forms the basis of our adaptive merging criterion. Based on this criterion, we design a single agglomeration rule in which a group is either absorbed by a neighbor it reaches better than itself or bonded to a neighbor that both sides find more reachable than their own background, every merge being additionally required to be carried by a contact stronger than a configuration-model null expects. The rule automatically estimates the number of clusters and decides when to stop merging. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that A-DLCC produces interpretable clustering results without parameter tuning.

Offline reinforcement learning and off-policy evaluation evaluates dynamic treatment rules based on retrospectively collected data prior to deployment. In recent AI applications, state and reward information is recorded as complex text or image, which recent AI advancements such as LLM-as-a-judge can label with unknown bias. Expert annotation may be available but at a higher cost. For example, safety classification via cheap but imperfect classifiers vs. expensive expert review. We show how a limited budget for ground-truth data-annotation can be used via doubly-robust OPE with missing rewards, and we optimize variance-optimal annotation probabilities for sequential off-policy evaluation, where the target policy value is estimated from annotated data. We characterize the optimal annotation probabilities for sequential forward-monotone annotation protocols, and provide a feasible batch-adaptive implementation. Our work is motivated by a collaboration with a homelessness services nonprofit that writes casenotes for individuals over time. Our method can be used to unlock trustworthy inference from casenote data and answer new inferential questions such as: how does expanding outreach effort over time affect progress towards a housing application and improvement in housing placement? In simulations and on two real datasets - casenotes from the nonprofit and human-preference votes from LMArena - we see reductions in RMSE of 34-65% for housing placement and 17-68% for progress towards a housing application at budgets of 40% of full annotation and above, and by 55-62% at every budget on LMArena.

Commonly, classifiers and monitoring procedures are trained from labeled data by optimizing an objective such as the misclassification rate. This may lead to unrepresentative conditional distributions of the outcome (the labels) given important external variables, different from the conditional laws in the population. We show how to modify any given threshold-type classifier resp. monitoring rule to achieve representative conditional label prediction by using adapting the threshold to a covariate $Z$ (the context) to distribute sensitivity while maintaining the false alarm rate. In case that the alarm event is unknown, this approach also allows to (approximately) infer the event in terms of a thresholding rule. The approach is implemented by a computationally cheap nonparametric estimation procedure, and its properties are studied in terms of nonasymptotic error bounds and asymptotic distribution theory including empirical process theory. These results allow to construct uniform confidence bands, functional hypothesis tests and change-detection procedures. For the well known FICOS credit scoring example, often used in interpretable machine learning, threshold adaptation leads to an easily interpretable decision rule which can compete with state of the art methods including transformers, in terms of common classification metrics.

Sparse Gaussian processes achieve $O(N)$ inference by replacing the kernel with an appropriate expansion in a fixed basis $\{\phi_j\}$ on the input space. Given a compute budget $M \ll N$, practitioners conventionally truncate the basis to its first $M$ entries. Nothing in the formalism, however, prevents one from selecting only those $M$ basis functions that matter for the data at hand. This would avoid spending budget on basis functions where there is no signal, but it requires a criterion for ranking the candidates. We propose three such criteria derived from an information-theoretic view of the basis-function selection problem. Each criterion matches a different state of knowledge at selection time: a no-data state, a no-prior state, and an in-between state. We then study the performance of truncation versus selection strategies on six UCI regression benchmarks across three basis families: Hilbert-space Gaussian processes (HSGP), variational Fourier features (VFF), and variational inducing spherical harmonics (VISH). We observe that the no-data criterion is a safe default, matching or improving on truncation for HSGP, VFF and VISH, with substantial gains for VISH and improvements over a recently developed selection heuristic for that basis family. The data-aware no-prior and in-between criteria provide substantial gains over truncation specifically for HSGP, which is the most broadly used of the three families in practice.

Streaming principal component analysis (PCA) seeks to recover a leading spectral subspace in a single pass over a data stream. We give a new analysis of the ubiquitous Oja's algorithm [Oja82] for the most general, gap-free variant of this problem, where no eigengap assumptions are made on the underlying mean matrix, complemented by a nearly-matching lower bound. Prior works achieving near-optimal rates for streaming PCA either required gap assumptions [JJK+16, HNWW21], or were limited to rank-one updates [AZL17, Lia23]. Our proof only uses a second moment bound on the individual stochastic updates, bypassing the almost sure bounds needed by prior near-optimal analyses, and the analogous offline matrix Bernstein bound. We also extend our result to a Rayleigh quotient notion of approximate PCA, addressing an open question of [JJK+16]. As our main application, we give gap-free differentially private PCA guarantees for sub-Gaussian data, settling Conjecture 1.1 of [Bro26] up to logarithmic factors.

This manuscript formalizes the most popular model validation tools used in general insurance actuarial modeling. These include graphical tools like calibration plots, actual-vs-expected plots, lift charts, Murphy diagrams, as well as classical statistical tools such as Bregman losses, deviance losses, elementary losses, Murphy's decomposition and Gini scores. Particular emphasis is placed on whether calibration and discrimination are studied under a policy-weighted or an exposure-weighted population measure. This distinction is crucial in ensuring that premium schemes are calibrated on the correct scale.

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a fundamental tool to reduce the dimensionality of the data in many applications. PCA finds a few signal directions that contain most of the variability of the data by computing the eigenvectors of the sample covariance matrix. In this work, we focus on the spiked covariance model, in which the data vectors are defined by a few orthogonal signals plus an isotropic Gaussian noise, and our goal is to estimate one or more of the leading signals. Our main theoretical finding is that the subspace spanned by several leading eigenvectors of the sample covariance matrix contains significant information about the desired signals long before the individual eigenvectors converge to the population principal components. To prove this, we derive a posteriori bounds for the angle between the subspace spanned by the desired population signals and the subspace obtained from the sample using perturbation theory for singular vectors. This leads to a new algorithm, SuperPCA (SUbsPace subsamplER PCA), which capitalizes on an approximate eigenspace of the sample covariance matrix to find the leading signals far more efficiently and accurately than classical PCA in the high-dimensional, multi-signal setting. SuperPCA exploits only a small number of subsampled coordinates of the data, which can lead to tremendous savings in data acquisition cost, especially when the signals are approximately sparse. For the same number of measurements, SuperPCA can offer a factor $10$ improvement in accuracy compared to the classical PCA method.

We study preference elicitation under the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model where the true partworth vector is unknown and has to be estimated as a parameter with elicited preference information. The set of selected pairwise queries is non-uniform, deterministic, and arbitrary over a collection of alternatives, provided that it satisfies a joint identifiability condition. We focus on understanding when the canonical maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is finite and admits sharp error bounds without explicit compactness constraints on the feasible set or external regularizers. To this end, we derive minimax lower bounds under the standard bounded dynamic range condition, and find that the same Fisher-information geometry in the classic Cramér-Rao lower bounds underpins the finite-sample difficulty of the estimation problem. By combining a non-asymptotic expansion of the likelihood score equation with a fixed-point localization argument, we identify a design-dependent sample size threshold above which the unconstrained canonical MLE exists and is unique with high probability. The same expansion yields a decomposition of the estimation error into a linear stochastic term, an explicit second-order bias, and a higher-order remainder. A refined analysis gives sufficient sample size conditions under which the canonical MLE attains the minimax rates up to logarithmic and constant factors. These results provide a unified non-asymptotic theory for parametric utility elicitation and reveal when the inference is determined by response data alone rather than by external regularization. Preliminary numerical results are consistent with the theoretical findings.

Causal tabular foundation models amortize effect estimation across synthetic mechanisms, but latent-effect supervision rewards posterior shrinkage rather than encoding the repeated-sample response needed in a fixed deployment population. We introduce fluctuation-supervised pretraining (FSP): each synthetic table is labeled by its average treatment effect plus its efficient influence-function fluctuation; deployment remains a frozen forward pass. Along the path $T_{\lambda,P}=\theta(P)+\lambda P_n\psi_P$, we prove an endpoint transition: every fixed $\lambda<1$ retains label ambiguity of order $(1-\lambda)^2/n$, whereas full fluctuation makes the Gaussian label observable and reduces optimal finite-stratum causal label-prediction risk to order $n^{-2}$. A finite-pretraining bound combines label, network, episode-sampling, and optimization errors; its sampling defect controls fixed-mechanism bias, mean squared error, variance, Gaussian approximation, and, with variance-head accuracy, studentized coverage. Complementary lower bounds separate local $n^{-1}$ ATE risk from the $\log N/M$ excess risk of generic finite-dictionary episode learning. Experiments trace the learned sampling response. Across 24 nonlinear continuous-covariate cells at trained context lengths, continuous-row FSP lowers checkpoint-mean macro RMSE by 7.0% versus S-learner and wins all 12 weak-overlap cells; validation-selected Summary FSP deploys $11.6\times$ faster per table in our warm one-thread benchmark. Under effect shift, matched Raw FSP lowers mean-checkpoint RMSE by 54.2% and teacher defect by 99.0% versus latent-effect supervision, and RMSE by 10.2% versus the released CausalPFN-S checkpoint. Known-effect semisynthesis tests coverage; two randomized-study evaluations show that lower RMSE can coexist with residual attenuation.

Explanations are central to causal reasoning, and cognitive science has long established that the human drive to explain is itself a mechanism for learning about causality. Despite this, learning from those abductive signals is largely ignored in artificial intelligence. While explainable AI (XAI) increasingly draws on causal models to generate explanations, the converse direction about what explanations can do for causality remains largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we propose xWhyL, a formal framework connecting causality and XAI by learning causal models from explanations. We develop a mathematical theory that translates explanations into a learning signal complementary to observational data, and demonstrate how it enables overcoming the limits of observational causal discovery. As explanations can be derived from incorrect beliefs and clash with data, a tension we call the Causal Tug-of-War, we prove conditions under which our framework rejects misspecified explanations rather than absorbing them. Our practical instantiation, Causal Interactive Learning (CIL), shows how expert explanations can efficiently support causal discovery and distinguish correct from incorrect explanations.

Causal inference guides operational and managerial decisions but remains challenging in high-dimensional panel or tensor settings, where decisions may depend on the joint conditional distribution of missing control outcomes. We develop Counterfactual Tucker Diffusion (\CFTDiff), which integrates the treatment mask and latent Tucker structure into conditional diffusion to recover this distribution given observed control outcomes through efficient nonlinear score learning in a low-dimensional core. The masked Tucker score preserves dependence across tensor modes while reducing the dimension of nonlinear score learning from the product of mode dimensions to the much smaller product of Tucker ranks. We establish high-probability error bounds for conditional score estimation that depend on the Tucker ranks, largest mode dimension, and the factor-strength-adjusted number of missing outcomes, and show how these bounds translate into recovery guaranties for the conditional distribution of the missing control outcomes. Across missing rates, simulations show more accurate point recovery than common causal panel and matrix/tensor completion methods; comparisons with nested diffusion specifications further demonstrate the gains from masked conditioning and Tucker dimension reduction. In Norway's iFlex experiment, \CFTDiff recovers missing outcomes more accurately than competing methods; when applied to causal analysis, its estimated conditional distributions yield counterfactual prediction intervals and target-attainment probabilities, allowing pricing interventions to be evaluated by demand-reduction magnitude and reliability.

Mixed-precision weight quantization is commonly formulated as a Multiple-Choice Knapsack Problem (MCKP), yet existing solvers rely on scalar sensitivity proxies that collapse each weight matrix's Hessian into a single number and treat every module independently. We prove that even the optimal scalar proxy incurs multiplicative distortion up to $\sqrt{\kappa(\mathbf{A})\kappa(\mathbf{B})}$ relative to the full activation-aware quadratic, where $\kappa(\mathbf{A})$ and $\kappa(\mathbf{B})$ denote the condition numbers of the input- and output-side Hessian factors. This bound varies from $10^1$ to $10^{13}$ for typical LLM modules, making inter-module sensitivity ranking unreliable. To address these limitations, we propose Cross-layer Activation-aware Sensitivity Allocation (CASA), a two-phase method. In Stage 1, the scalar proxy is replaced by an activation-aware metric derived from the Kronecker-factored Hessian, reducing the MCKP to a form whose continuous relaxation admits a closed-form solution. In Stage 2, a cross-layer-aware local search evaluates bit-width updates using the end-to-end model loss. Experiments on multiple LLMs across different bit budgets show that CASA achieves lower perplexity than the latest scalar-proxy baselines, especially at ultra-low bit-widths ($<3$ bits per weight). Moreover, the performance gain in zero-shot accuracy tracks the per-model average condition-number over modules, confirming the distortion bound as a practical indicator of scalar-proxy failure.

Memory constraints in artificial intelligence motivate accurate function approximation with fewer parameters. We study looping, which repeatedly composes one update function with shared parameters; each output becomes the next input. A looped Transformer, for example, reuses one block, whereas its conventional untied counterpart uses separately parameterized blocks. We compare their parameter requirements for a given worst-case approximation accuracy, or equivalently, their approximation accuracy under a common budget limiting distinct trainable coefficients. We then ask whether this representational parsimony improves statistical accuracy. For general likelihood models, we establish an upper squared Hellinger risk bound for looped sieve maximum likelihood and a minimax lower bound for the jointly tuned untied family. Further loop iterations improve the approximation bound without adding parameters, while increasing computation and the fitted-class complexity bound. For targets of known Hölder smoothness, looped residual feedforward networks and post-layer-normalized Transformers attain the minimax polynomial rate up to logarithmic factors with a fixed number of bounded real parameters. At sufficiently large fixed budgets, looped worst-case risk vanishes while optimal worst-case untied risk remains bounded away from zero. The loop-to-untied risk ratio also tends to zero under specified growing-budget conditions. Regression, binary response, and energy-based generative models illustrate the theory.

Class-balanced replay controls class frequency but does not determine the interval between successive replay appearances of a class. We study this interval, the rehearsal gap, separately from the class marginal and class co-occurrence, and introduce randomised-pass replay (RPR), which visits each resident class once per shuffled pass. For a fixed set of C resident classes and replay batch size b less than or equal to C, RPR preserves the balanced time-averaged class marginal and bounds every gap by 2*ceil(C/b)-1; a churn-conditional bound applies while the resident set changes. The scheduler uses no future class information and adds no replay examples or forward passes. In a linear-head ER-ACE diagnostic, joint absence from the incoming and replay batches produces a one-sided classifier-bias gradient. Longer absence episodes are associated with larger negative bias displacement, and removing the incoming-loss mask attenuates the scheduling effect. In the primary ER-ACE experiments, RPR improves final average accuracy by 0.72-1.67 percentage points relative to independent class-balanced retrieval under reservoir storage, with positive effects also observed under balanced storage. Pretrained ViTs show positive effects on the tested LT10 streams with small replay batches, while matched larger-batch controls show no material effect. Fixed-cycle and reused-pass controls change more than one temporal statistic, so the experiments do not isolate rehearsal-gap length from all other forms of temporal dependence. The accuracy effects depend on the learner and operating regime.

The statistical accuracy of neural networks depends on both their approximation power and the complexity of the class fitted from data. While increasing network size is a natural way to improve approximation, parameter magnitude provides another resource whose role must be quantified in both respects. We establish a sharp width–magnitude tradeoff at fixed depth using one elementary bounded $1$-Lipschitz Dyadic–Triangular Activation. For the unit $\beta$-Hölder ball on $[0,1]^d$ with $0<\beta\leq1$, the optimal $L^p$ approximation error for $0<p<\infty$ is of order $[N^2\log(eNT)]^{-\beta/d}$ when the network width satisfies $N\geq2d+3$ and the parameter magnitudes are bounded by $T\geq1$. Matching lower bounds hold for every fixed globally Hölder activation; its Hölder exponent affects the constants but not the rate. Under bounded design densities and independent centered sub-Gaussian noise, approximate least squares over the full clipped class at depth $23$ attains the classical Hölder minimax risk $\mathcal{O}(M^{-\frac{2\beta}{2\beta+d}})$ without logarithmic loss whenever $N^2\log(eNT)\asymp M^{\frac{d}{2\beta+d}}$, where $M$ is the sample size. This yields a continuum of statistically optimal choices, ranging from unit parameter radius to fixed network size. At fixed size, four hidden layers with at most $8d+7$ nonzero parameters give a near-optimal radius, while six layers with at most $8d+27$ attain the optimal order $\log T=\mathcal{O}(\eta^{-d/\beta})$ at approximation error $\eta$. The same decoding method also yields fixed-size Transformer approximation.

Federated learning (FL) is intrinsically heterogeneous: honest clients may have different data-generating models. On top of that, adversarial clients can make heterogeneity even more pronounced by sharing arbitrary updates. Existing analyses typically control the interaction between statistical heterogeneity and adversarial behavior through gradient-dissimilarity conditions. However, the underlying bound is imposed a priori and may yield conservative guarantees even for least-squares regression. We instead derive the gradient heterogeneity from the statistical model of linear and nonlinear regression with fresh data samples at every round. Our bounds separate heterogeneity among the honest clients' ground-truth model parameters, finite-sample label noise, and initialization. We then demonstrate that, for any $(f,\kappa)$-robust aggregator with coefficient $\kappa = O(f/n)$, where $f$ is the number of adversarial clients and $n$ the total number of clients (with $f/n < 1/2$), convergence holds after an explicit sample burn-in.

Exhaustively evaluating every candidate LLM configuration on every benchmark item to identify a high-performing one is costly. We formulate configuration selection as a cost-aware Bayesian bandit problem and propose GittinsEval, which draws on the Bayesian-optimal Gittins policy to determine which configuration to evaluate next and when to stop. We extend the policy with an anytime recommendation rule over both fully and partially evaluated configurations, using an LCB-style score to account for posterior uncertainty. GittinsEval is computationally efficient, requiring only lightweight online updates after offline precomputation. Across GSM8K, PIQA, AlpacaEval, and MMLU response matrices, GittinsEval is consistently competitive, with particularly strong gains over configuration-level Bayesian optimization on large-example benchmarks and over cost-unaware bandit baselines on large-candidate tasks. Crucially, GittinsEval often attains near-zero simple regret using only 1% to 2% of the exhaustive-evaluation cost; it also offers an adaptive stopping rule that typically triggers at 1% to 10%.

In this paper, we study the estimation of a marginal regression function from independent units with repeated binary, count, or continuous responses using ReLU deep neural networks. In the model, we assume that the dependence is generated by an unobserved random mean function within each unit. We then fit a neural network with a convex generalized regression loss. We show an oracle inequality by separating conditional measurement variation from between-unit variation. In addition, we prove that with $n$ units and $m$ measurements per unit, ReLU networks can attain an integrated mean squared error of order $n^{-1}+(nm)^{-2\beta/(2\beta+d)}$, up to logarithmic factors, over $\beta$-Hölder classes. We also derive a weighted oracle inequality for unequal cluster sizes and a rate for compositionally smooth functions. For pointwise ensemble inference, we give a projection central limit theorem and prove infinitesimal jackknife consistency under an explicit asymptotic linearity condition. Simulations and real data examples are provided to support our theoretical findings and practical implications.

We study the estimation of a $K$-dimensional simplex from $N$ i.i.d.\ points sampled uniformly from its interior; the observations are convex combinations of $K+1$ unknown prototypes. Existing polynomial-time estimators need cubic per-sample work or $O(NK)$ storage and are impractical at $N\sim 10^6$–$10^8$. We propose DeepMVSA, which re-expresses the minimum-volume principle in neural implicit form: a lightweight coordinate network generates the mixing weights and a triangular LU-type parameterization the dual simplex matrix, reducing the trainable-state memory to $O(K^2)$, independent of $N$, and the cost per data pass to $O(NK^2)$. We prove a non-asymptotic sample-complexity bound of the polynomial-time benchmark order for a localized surrogate estimator; an oracle inequality for every global minimizer of the neural objective, with volume-inflation control and an explicit shrinkage bias; a conditional end-to-end error budget separating statistical, approximation, optimization, and enclosure-residual terms on an explicit envelope event; and two-point lower bounds: at any noise level $\sigma>0$ fixed independently of $N$, the $N^{-1/2}$ scaling is unimprovable in its $N$-exponent. Experiments with up to $N=10^8$ synthetic observations are consistent with the predicted accuracy and scaling, and feasibility on real scenes of $\sim 10^7$ pixels is demonstrated.

Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) significantly advance Automated Theorem Proving (ATP), but are often deployed as guiding policies within tree search rather than for single-attempt generation. Recent work shows cross entropy is suboptimal for an LLM used in flat search strategies such as aggregation or filtering and that work has developed new loss functions to correct this misalignment. Extending this alignment to tree search is more challenging: proof discovery depends on exploration and recovery through off-trace states that supervised demonstrations do not reveal. We extend Compute-Aligned Training (CAT) to this setting through an abstraction of policy-guided search, deriving tractable, trace-supported losses. Alongside these search-aware losses, we introduce a search-agnostic uniform-allocation (UA) loss that accounts for the budget without specifying the specific search. Both induce scalar weights on per-tactic cross-entropy gradients. We characterize how off-trace behavior affects the search-aware weights, including conditions for vanishing approximation error at large budgets. On a Lean benchmark, both approaches achieve higher observed proof-success rates than cross-entropy across six search strategies, with strong results from a single shared UA adapter. Budget sweeps show larger gains over cross-entropy at 16 than at 256 expansions, implying CAT scales with test time compute.

Multiple instance learning (MIL) is widely used in computational pathology because it enables weakly supervised analysis of whole-slide images (WSIs) without requiring patch-level annotations. In attention-based MIL, instances with high attention scores are often interpreted as diagnostically important regions and used as visual explanations. However, attention scores alone cannot determine whether selected high-attention instances are significantly different from normal instances, limiting the reliability of attention-based explanations. In this paper, we formulate the evaluation of high-attention instances as a statistical hypothesis testing problem. Specifically, we assess whether a selected high-attention instance significantly deviates from a representative normal reference instance selected based on feature similarity. A major challenge is that both the target instance and the reference instance are selected through data-dependent procedures, rendering standard hypothesis testing invalid. To address this issue, we introduce a selective inference (SI) framework that explicitly accounts for the selection events induced by attention-based instance selection and adaptive reference selection, thereby enabling the computation of valid selective $p$-values conditional on these events. Experiments demonstrate Type-I error control on synthetic and MNIST-based data and practical applicability to pathological WSIs, with higher statistical power than the conventional over-conditioning approach.

We present the first method for native, continuous gradient descent for machine learning models with $p$-adic parameters. Existing native optimizers are discrete, mostly combinatorial searches, as the $p$-adic numbers $\mathbb{Q}_p$ are totally disconnected, with standard losses that are flat away from their minima. To enable continuous optimization, we propose working with $\mathbb{Q}_p$ via its Berkovich affine line: a canonical, path-connected expansion of $\mathbb{Q}_p$ that preserves its isometries and uniquely extends its analytic maps. This hull is a metric tree with interpretable points and local derivatives, which we show enables effective optimizers and backpropagation. We formulate gradient descent and show that its approximations efficiently learn linear models with coefficients in $\mathbb{Q}_p$ to do modular arithmetic, an XOR-like task not expressible by linear models in $\mathbb{R}$. We also demonstrate momentum and Adam variants, linear regression, and classification on binary-encoded hierarchies (Quillian semantic networks), addressing open problems posed by Martins (2025). Library at https://github.com/google-deepmind/padic-ml

Semi-supervised federated learning (SSFL) trains models on clients' unlabeled data using a teacher to generate pseudo-labels, with a small labeled seed dataset on the server. Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) is particularly fragile here: pseudo-label errors compound across the output sequence and across training rounds into divergence, leaving a large gap to fully-supervised FL. We show that closing this gap turns on two coupled design axes – the teacher (which model generates the pseudo-labels) and the anchor (the server-side updates on labeled data that stabilize training). On the teacher axis, a per-client online teacher (each client's own evolving model) diverges on its own, but once stabilized it matches or beats the broadcast global teacher (one server model, fixed within a round) – decisively in-domain and competitively under domain shift. As the seed grows stronger and the online teacher's advantage narrows, a transitioning teacher (global $\rightarrow$ online at round $r$) matches or beats both. On the anchor axis, the server must keep training on labeled data between rounds – otherwise the online teacher drifts – and this interleaving, more than the seed model, governs convergence. The two axes are inseparable: aggressive teacher choices pay off only once the anchor stabilizes training, which is highly sensitive to data augmentation and batch size – the settings that govern how much input and gradient noise the server injects. How much stabilization is needed is domain-dependent, governed by the dispersion of the seed data and its overlap with client data. These findings yield guidelines for SSFL in ASR training, improving over the strongest prior method on 9 of 11 pairs, by $20.8\%$ on average in-domain and $10.0\%$ cross-domain, narrowing the gap to fully-supervised FL.

A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal prediction in nonparametric uncertainty quantification, standard marginal validity offers limited resolution at the prediction values on which decisions are based, and fully conditional guarantees with respect to the covariates are provably unattainable. We address this gap by introducing a prediction-based conditioning framework that we refer to as Prediction-Interval-Conditional Prediction Intervals (PICPIs). Formally, a PICPI is an interval $I$ satisfying a self-consistency condition: $$\mathbb{E} [Y \mid p(X) \in I] \in I,$$ for predictive model $p$, contextual covariate $X$, and outcome $Y$. Thus, an interval simultaneously defines a stratum of prediction values and certifies that the mean outcome in that stratum lies in the same interval. This self-consistency condition yields data-adaptive strata without altering the original prediction. Such intervals can be constructed using practical algorithms. Under regularity of the prediction distribution, the constructed intervals cover all but an arbitrarily small fraction of prediction values and have widths that decrease at rate $n^{-1/3}$, up to logarithmic factors and the prediction error. Moreover, identifying these locally calibrated intervals can, in turn, inform downstream decision-making. We derive inference procedures for PICPIs in probabilistic prediction and multi-class classification, accompanied by theoretical guarantees. Empirical results are provided that compare PICPIs with existing interval-based baselines.

We propose penalized nonreversible Langevin algorithms for sampling from $\pi(x)\propto e^{-f(x)}\mathbf 1_{\mathcal C}(x)$, where $\mathcal C\subset\mathbb R^d$ is a compact convex set. The algorithms combine a squared distance penalty with constant or compatible state dependent skew symmetric perturbations that preserve the penalized Gibbs distribution. For smooth, possibly nonconvex $f$, we derive nonasymptotic total variation bounds for the full gradient algorithm under a log Sobolev inequality. When unbiased stochastic gradients are available, we establish $2$-Wasserstein bounds under global contraction and Lipschitz conditions on the full drift in an adapted quadratic metric. For a fixed penalty parameter, the error relative to the penalized Gibbs distribution decays exponentially to an $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\eta})$ neighborhood, where $\eta$ is the stepsize. We also bound the discrepancy between the penalized Gibbs distribution and the constrained target. In a two dimensional quadratic model, we establish nonreversible acceleration by tuning the skew perturbation to the curvature imbalance induced by penalization. With the target accuracy and smaller curvature fixed and initial Wasserstein distances uniformly bounded, tuning the skew perturbation improves the sufficient Euler iteration bound from linear to logarithmic in the curvature ratio. Numerical experiments evaluate the algorithms on constrained Bayesian regression, classification, neural networks, and truncated sampling, and examine the acceleration mechanism in a stochastic quadratic model.

We empirically audit privacy leakage by testing whether outputs from edge-neighbouring inputs remain distinguishable, using statistically valid lower bounds on the privacy loss witnessed by our attacks. Our framework compares direct-edge, local-structural, and GNN-based attacks through the geometry surrounding a target edge. Experiments across two generators and two networks show that privacy leakage is both mechanism- and network-dependent, with learned representations revealing information not captured by conventional local statistics.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) offer an efficient approach to amortized Bayesian inference for inverse problems, but posterior accuracy can depend strongly on the choice of variational regularization, particularly when the inverse problem contains weakly identified parameter directions. This study investigates three objectives: a reverse Kullback–Leibler formulation (VAE-KL), an asymmetric Jensen–Shannon formulation (VAE-JS), and a Jensen–Shannon–Wasserstein formulation (VAE-JSWA), which replaces the reverse Kullback–Leibler regularizer with the squared 2-Wasserstein distance while retaining forward-Kullback–Leibler posterior supervision. A full-covariance Gaussian encoder and a pre-trained physics-based surrogate are used for amortized posterior inference. A local linear–Gaussian analysis in the generalized Fisher basis is developed to characterize the variance-dependent gradients of the three objectives. The formulations are first evaluated using linear–Gaussian benchmarks with known posterior solutions and subsequently tested on nonlinear physics-based inverse problems, including an inverse problem governed by a linear ODE and two PDE-constrained problems. VAE-KL performs slightly better than the other formulations in the well-conditioned benchmark, where all three approaches yield comparable posterior approximations, whereas VAE-JSWA provides substantially lower posterior errors in the strongly ill-conditioned benchmark. The nonlinear physics-based problems exhibit a similar conditioning-dependent trend, with JS-based formulations providing greater benefit as posterior ill-conditioning increases. These results indicate that posterior conditioning is an important factor in selecting variational objectives and motivate geometry-adaptive variational inference for Bayesian inverse problems.

Lepto-regression is defined as the machine learning process of constructing a Regression Tree of a target feature on itself. It is a novel, model-free method potentially revealing information on important sample structure properties. But it is yet not clear what the informational content of lepto-variance is and how it is related to other well-known statistics of a sample. One significant finding is that 58% of the historical US stock return variability is 1-bit lepto-variance that can not be explained by any financial factor. The central question investigated in this paper is to use small normal N(0, 1) drawn samples to explore how the 1-bit sample lepto-variance and lepto-ratio relate to sample variance, skewness and excess kurtosis. Using a large sample simulation, the lepto ratio of a normal is found to converge to 36.3%. For smaller normally distributed simulated N(0, 1) samples, while lepto-variance itself is highly correlated to sample variance, lepto-variance as a fraction of total variance is highly correlated to excess kurtosis. Both lepto-variance and lepto-ratio are orthogonal to sample skew. Another finding is that while lepto-ratio is strongly correlated to lepto-variance it remains orthogonal to sample variance.

Pharmaceutical process characterization is central to Quality by Design because it defines how variations in process parameters affect the ability to meet product quality specifications, thereby supporting proven acceptable ranges and robust manufacturing. In practice, however, characterization still relies largely on factorial design of experiments (DOE) approaches, which are inefficient for resolving multivariate pass/fail boundaries in higher-dimensional spaces. While Bayesian optimization has transformed process optimization, adaptive methods for multi-objective process characterization remain lacking. Here, we introduce JAREX (Joint Acceptable Region EXploration), a Bayesian active-learning acquisition function for multi-objective process characterization. JAREX formulates characterization as a joint boundary-learning problem and adaptively selects experiments to recover the joint pass region defined by simultaneous satisfaction of threshold criteria across multiple objectives. JAREX combines an optimistic joint-feasibility mask with a multi-objective extension of randomized straddle, focusing sampling on the joint edge of failure. Our benchmark study suggests that JAREX provides more accurate and sample-efficient recovery of the joint pass region than factorial DOE, space-filling designs, and greedy objective-wise strategies over the full experimental budget range. For batched experimentation, it reduces the number of iterative process characterization experiments by more than half while preserving high accuracy for the boundary-identification task. Implemented in the open-source obsidian package, JAREX provides a modular framework for adaptive, data-efficient multi-objective algorithmic process characterization, supporting sample-efficient range finding in high-dimensional spaces.

Binary classification trees select subgroups using the same outcomes later used to assess their differences. We develop finite-sample conditional tests of a common success probability within a parent selected by deterministic Gini CART. The construction retains all eligible cutpoints and conditions on the selected split, its ancestor path, the parent success total, and outside outcomes. The resulting uniform label fiber gives an exact count distribution, while a reversible parallel Monte Carlo construction yields super-uniform inclusive and exactly uniform tie-randomized p-values for any prespecified finite run budget. Within a two-child constant-risk model, the selected count law is an exponential family with information equal to its conditional count variance. We separate information loss from computational limitations and exhibit a selected fiber disconnected under single-label swaps. Simulations with 200 or 400 observations, ten independent or correlated predictors, and trees of depth three show conservative inclusive tests and nontrivial power for large risk differences. At 400 observations and a generating risk difference of 0.4, randomized rejection conditional on reaching the prespecified third-level target is 51–71%, while selection followed by rejection occurs in 11–21% of datasets. Smaller signals remain difficult to detect, and a representative fivefold increase in computation gives little power improvement. The guarantee concerns parent homogeneity, or equality of two constant child risks, and does not cover equality of heterogeneous regional averages.