Papers

In this paper, we study nonasymptotic $L^p$ error bounds for interval length and conditional coverage in split conformalized quantile regression (CQR). Our bounds rely on local regularity conditions and accuracy guarantees for the estimated quantiles. We further instantiate our bounds for quantile regression with sparse ReLU neural networks. We also consider covariate shift, where the calibration and test covariates have different distributions, and derive nonasymptotic bounds for this setting. We obtain matching minimax upper and lower bounds in expectation for two constructed fixed-score calibration benchmarks under known covariate shift. The bounds match for every $p\in[1,\infty]$ in the scalar problem and for finite $p$ in the $K$-threshold problem; for the latter, a high-probability minimax lower bound holds for every $p\in[1,\infty]$.

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) minimises aggregate reconstruction error, which can inadvertently represent majority subgroups with substantially higher fidelity than minority subgroups. Fairness-aware extensions of PCA correct this disparity but require group labels as input. We address the logically prior question: given only a data matrix, which binary partition of the data suffers the greatest representational disparity under a shared PCA projection? We formalise this as the max-disparity partition problem and propose a greedy local-search algorithm, grounded in the Fiduccia-Mattheyses bipartitioning framework, that discovers the disparity-maximising partition without any predefined group labels. Two benchmark algorithms, a fixed-projection sorting baseline and a simulated-annealing variant, confirm that the greedy solution is empirically near-optimal. Having identified the partition, we attribute the disparity to specific features via PCA loading scores and association rule mining, enabling a practitioner to assess whether the disadvantaged group corresponds to a human-meaningful minority. On the Predict Students' Dropout and Academic Success dataset, representational disparity is driven predominantly by institutional and programmatic proxies for socioeconomic disadvantage, with gender emerging as a secondary but consistent contributor within the disadvantaged group. The discovered partition is then passed directly to Fair PCA, completing a detect-explain-mitigate pipeline.

Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs) were developed as interpretable surrogate models for RFs, but their use as standalone prediction models with uncertainty quantification has not been systematically investigated. We combine ARTs with leaf-wise Mondrian conformal predictive systems (CPS), enabling a single tree to provide continuous predictions, prediction intervals, and probabilities of exceeding arbitrary thresholds. We compared ARTs with CPS against decision trees with CPS and separate regression and probability trees across five simulation scenarios, 21 benchmark datasets, and a cross-sectional NHANES example data set. Repeated cross-validation assessed predictive performance, interpretability, and stability. ARTs with CPS yield compact, structurally stable trees with substantially more reproducible split-variable selection than decision trees across benchmark datasets and NHANES. Decision trees showed slightly better predictive performance and narrower prediction intervals, while coverage was broadly comparable. CPS-based trees generally achieved lower and less variable Brier scores than multi-model approaches. Combining ARTs with CPS therefore provides a single, interpretable, and stable model for continuous predictions and calibrated probabilities, balancing predictive performance with reproducibility and transparency in settings where stability and interpretability are essential.

Tensor completion has attracted significant attention in both applications and theoretical research. Under standard uniform sampling, existing polynomial-time guarantees generally require more observations than the number of degree of freedom, motivating the study of a possible statistical-to-computational gap in highly missing regimes. Fortunately, in many practical scenarios, side information is available, which can provide valuable insights to mitigate these challenges. In this paper, we introduce an algorithm called Tensor Completion using Subspace Information (TCSI) that incorporates side information through an estimated subspace. Our approach first extracts the subspace from the available side information and then reformulates tensor completion as a matrix regression problem. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that, when accurate subspace information is available, the required sample complexity is reduced to nearly linear order in the uncoupled ambient dimensions, removing the coupled-mode dimension from the leading term. Leveraging the estimated subspace information, we obtain a less stringent sufficient signal-to-noise ratio requirement than those in several existing passive-uniform-sampling guarantees. Under additional mild conditions, we obtain a sharper statistical error bound. Our theoretical findings are supported by numerical simulations. We apply TCSI to the reconstruction of global Total Electron Content (TEC) maps and observe lower reconstruction errors than the compared methods in our experiments.

Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty but requires MCMC; the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) is the gold standard but is slow and must restart from scratch for every new dataset, model and prior. We introduce metabeta, a pretrained neural network for prior-amortized in-context Bayesian inference over GLMMs. Unlike previous neural posterior estimators that fix the prior at training time, metabeta accepts prior families and hyperparameters as inputs at test time, enabling zero-shot generalization. Two set transformers and conditional normalizing flows mirror the posterior's two-level structure (global parameters shared across groups, local parameters per group). The model is trained on millions of realistic simulated datasets spanning continuous, binary, and count outcomes. By default, the flow posterior is refined by Independence Metropolis-Hastings against the unnormalized posterior, so its correctness rests on the sampler rather than the network; this yields tuning-free inference two to three orders of magnitude faster than NUTS. Alternatively, the flow can warm-start NUTS, giving nearly identical inference with substantially increased speed and stability. On controlled benchmarks with ground-truth parameters, metabeta matches NUTS in parameter recovery, calibration and out-of-sample prediction. On out-of-distribution real datasets, its posteriors closely match those of NUTS across all parameter types, and they remain faithful under misspecified likelihoods and priors, out-of-distribution predictors, collinear designs, and data-poor regimes. The model is open-source and open-weights and thus immediately deployable.

Current experimental scientists increasingly rely on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex models with intractable likelihoods. A primary goal in these settings is to obtain credible regions with valid coverage. While recent model-agnostic conformal calibration methods have succeeded in constructing credible sets with prescribed local Bayesian coverage, their approximate nature introduces inherent epistemic uncertainty in the calibration process. In this work, we propose a novel tool for diagnosing calibration uncertainty. Our approach is based on a simple three-way hypothesis testing procedure. We demonstrate how this tool can be used to effectively assess necessary simulation budgets for calibration sets and analyze the epistemic uncertainty associated with cutoff estimation.

Combining predictions from different models can improve performance at machine learning tasks, but the training of the individual models and the rule used to combine them are typically chosen separately, and by ad hoc means. Recent advances in distributional optimisation (i.e. where the optimisation occurs over the set of probability distributions) offer an opportunity for principled joint training, viewing the collection of models as a discrete distribution whose support points are to be optimised, but the potential of these methods is not well-understood. In this paper we (1) cast two standard combination strategies - ensembles and low-rank adapter averaging - as entropy-regularised distributional optimisation, observing that the resulting objective is convex in the ensemble case but not in the adapter-averaging case, so that existing convergence guarantees for mean field Langevin dynamics transfer only to the former; (2) assess existing and novel algorithms for this task, including a functional variant of variational gradient descent; and (3) report an empirical study spanning synthetic classification tasks and fine-tuning of large language models on a commonsense reasoning benchmark.

We study the problem of adversarially robust PAC learning. In this framework, the learner observes independent samples from an unknown distribution over $\mathcal{X} \times \{0,1\}$, as in classical PAC learning. However, given a perturbation map $\mathcal{U} : \mathcal{X} \to 2^{\mathcal{X}}$ known to the learner, the goal is to output, with high probability, a predictor that correctly classifies every perturbation $z \in \mathcal{U}(x)$ of most future examples $(x,y)$ drawn from the same underlying distribution. We determine the optimal $\mathcal{U}$-independent sample complexity of this problem in both the realizable and agnostic settings. More specifically, for every concept class $\mathcal{H}$ of $\operatorname{VC}$ dimension $d$, we prove upper bounds of $\mathcal{O} \big( d/\epsilon + \log(1/\delta)/\epsilon \big)$ in the realizable setting and $\mathcal{O} \big( d/\epsilon^2 + \log(1/\delta)/\epsilon^2 \big)$ in the agnostic setting, together with an optimal first-order refinement of the latter. These bounds match the corresponding lower bounds for classical PAC learning. Consequently, and perhaps surprisingly, adversarial robustness incurs no additional distribution-free statistical cost, uniformly over all perturbation maps. Our bounds improve exponentially on those of [Montasser, Hanneke, and Srebro; COLT '19]. On the technical side, we present short and elementary proofs based on a new algorithmic principle that we call binomial-bagging. We believe that binomial-bagging and its analysis may be of independent interest.

LLM judges evaluate candidate language models through pairwise comparisons of their responses. Judge-aware Bradley–Terry models aggregate pairwise comparisons by jointly estimating candidate scores and judge-specific sensitivities (how strongly each judge responds to quality differences), often interpreted as reliability. We show that this reading fails when judges prefer a display position. Even under balanced display orders or swap-and-average, omitting position attenuates fitted judge sensitivity by approximately the factor $1-D^2$ near equal quality, where $D$ is the judge's net first-slot preference between equally good responses. We propose OSCAR, which jointly estimates candidate scores, judge sensitivities and judge-specific position, length and family effects, and provides confidence intervals for pairwise win probabilities that account for dependence within prompts. On held-out data, observed attenuation closely matches the prediction $1-D^2$ (correlation of log ratios 0.99). Across four datasets, position adjustment lowers held-out log loss by 14-23% and changes which judges would be dropped for low sensitivity on three datasets. On MT-Bench, it ranks GPT-4 first instead of claude-v1, matching human votes. Simulations with known parameters show improved recovery of judge sensitivities and candidate rankings, with 94.4-95.2% confidence interval coverage. Low estimated sensitivity alone is therefore not evidence of an unreliable judge.

Black-box machine learning models increasingly deliver strong predictions, but extracting useful information from them, such as a set of important features, remains challenging. Existing model-agnostic methods primarily estimate feature importance or conduct inference on it rather than directly selecting features, whereas many feature selection methods are model-specific or rely on the model-X assumption. We introduce LOCO-guided Adaptive Minipatch Sampling (LAMPS), a model-agnostic ensemble framework that uses any black-box regression algorithm as its base learner to select features important for predicting the response. The base learner need only produce predictions and need not perform feature selection itself. LAMPS operates within a minipatch ensemble framework that subsamples both observations and features, allowing leave-one-covariate-out (LOCO) feature importance scores to be easily computed. It adaptively concentrates minipatch sampling on features with high LOCO scores while maintaining exploration. The resulting sampling probabilities rapidly separate signal from noise features after a few iterations, enabling selection through simple thresholding. We establish that LAMPS achieves exact feature selection in high-dimensional settings, provided that the base predictive models are sufficiently well trained on average. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data show that LAMPS outperforms state-of-the-art feature selection methods, with particularly strong performance in the presence of correlated features.

Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) combines causal inference with Bayesian optimization to enable sample-efficient intervention selection in systems with causal structure. This survey provides a systematic review of CBO through a unified BO-loop perspective, showing how causal assumptions shape intervention search spaces, surrogate models, acquisition functions, and decision policies. We organize existing methods by graph and system-knowledge assumptions, environment, intervention representation, surrogate architecture, and decision rule, and connect CBO to causal bandits, Bayesian experimental design, safe optimization, policy search, and causal abstraction. We also introduce a reproducibility-oriented benchmark spanning hard- and soft-intervention settings, with standardized GAP and a new trajectory-aware Path-Aware GAP (PA-GAP), evaluating seven CBO methods and a non-causal BO baseline across thirteen datasets, three budgets, and two metrics. Results show that no method dominates uniformly: rankings depend on dataset, budget, metric, and how causal information is used, while strong non-causal baselines remain competitive in several settings. Controlled graph-misspecification and omitted-variable stress tests further show that rankings can change substantially when learner-side causal information is perturbed. We conclude by identifying key open challenges, including robustness to causal-assumption violations, scalable unknown-graph optimization, mixed intervention types, realistic cost models, stronger theoretical guarantees, and integration with modern representation learning and causal abstractions.

Large-scale multipurpose cohort studies and biobanks often omit covariates needed for specific downstream analyses. We study target-population inference for generalized linear regression when key covariates are completely absent from the target data but observed in a related source population. Standard missing covariate methods are not directly applicable because they require at least partial observation of the covariates in the target population. We develop a doubly robust transfer learning framework under a sub-population shift assumption, which allows the distribution of the observed outcome and covariates to differ between populations while requiring the conditional distribution of the missing covariates given the observed variables to be shared. Unlike linear regression, nonlinear target estimating equations require parameter-indexed conditional functionals of the missing covariates rather than a fixed collection of low-order conditional moments. Our estimator combines importance-weighted source estimating equations with imputation of these conditional functionals. Under the identifying assumption, the estimator remains consistent when either the density-ratio model or the conditional-covariate model is correctly specified. Under regularity conditions, it is root-$n$ consistent and asymptotically normal, and attains the semiparametric efficiency bound when both nuisance models are correctly specified.

We develop exponential family synthetic controls (EFSC), a distributional version of synthetic controls for a panel of datasets. Each cell of the panel corresponds to a dataset drawn from an exponential family whose natural parameters factorize probabilistically across units and times. We estimate the latent factors using black-box variational inference. This replaces the usual weighted-average view of synthetic controls with a flexible probabilistic model that operates on full distributions. We propose causal estimands based on divergences between pre- and post-intervention distributions induced by the posterior of the natural parameters, together with distributional placebo tests to support causal inference and assess the significance of the estimated effects. We validate the proposed framework on synthetic and real data. Across a variety of exponential-family distributions, EFSC accurately recovers causal effects induced by exponential tilts, together with the corresponding divergences between treated and counterfactual distributions. The framework also captures effects induced by structural perturbations of the latent factors and by heavy-tailed noise contamination. Finally, we apply EFSC to study the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and its impact on the distribution of health insurance coverage across U.S. states. Code is available at https://github.com/blei-lab/efsc.

This paper presents a probabilistic perspective on large language models (LLMs), developed with the aim of bringing together, in a single self-contained account, tools that are usually treated separately across the literature. LLMs are described through probability measures on the set of sequences of tokens, specified via their autoregressive conditional distributions. Training is formulated as a maximum-likelihood estimation problem, addressed by stochastic gradient methods, while text generation is viewed as the sequential simulation of the resulting stochastic process. The role of the asymmetry of the Kullback–Leibler divergence in text generation is examined in relation with characteristic phenomena such as hallucination and the distinction between statistical plausibility and truth. As a complementary illustration of the same viewpoint, we also discuss diffusion models, built around the score function, which cast generation not as sequential token prediction but as the simulation of a reverse-time stochastic process transforming noise into data both in discrete and continuous time.

Robust linear fits can resist response contamination yet remain too dense or unstable for useful global explanations. We propose penalized distillation, which fits a smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) estimator to a robust initial estimator's empirical fitted surface along a safeguarded coordinate-descent path and evaluates candidate states separately for fidelity, parsimony, perturbation stability, and held-out prediction. The new results attach to the states the algorithm actually computes. Conditional on a fixed uncontaminated design, deterministic bounds transfer response-replacement boundedness from the initial fit to every retained path state. Turning to fixed dimension, we characterize the oracle-support branch by its empirical-Gram projection and influence function, give conditions for covariance-weighted least-squares approximation equivalence, and establish a path-conditional generalized information criterion. By contrast, at large dimension-to-sample ratios the full-coordinate robust fit collapses without warning, and screening restores the construction. Under a sure-screening framework, the robustness bound and the support and selection guarantees transfer to the screened fit. Simulations separate robustness transfer from support recovery, efficiency, and computation across the dimension-to-sample ratio, with p up to 240, and the signal density, which isolates what the sparse stage adds once the screen over-selects. In a duplicate-grouped superconductivity study, the distilled estimator remains predictively stable under prespecified training-response shifts but retains 66.8–68.8 of 81 slopes. Stronger sparsification reduces the model to 12.6–14.0 slopes only at visible fidelity and prediction cost. Distillation therefore preserves predictive stability on these data without substantiating a compact coordinate-level explanation.

Density-Ratio Rescoring (DRR) augments a classifier trained at the original class prior with a survey-raking dual score. Raking reweights the majority sample to match minority feature moments within a tolerance. DRR marginally standardizes the dual and base scores and combines them with a fixed weight of one half, using the fitted dual directly for prediction without resampling or refitting the base classifier. Under exact population matching and a correctly specified log-linear tilt model, the dual equals the log density ratio up to an additive constant. A class-separation analysis characterizes the signal strength and correlation conditions under which fusion improves separation under common within-class covariance. On 24 tabular benchmarks, evaluated over 30 trials and five base learners, DRR at the D=128 random-feature setting improves average precision over the standardized base on every dataset, with a mean gain of 0.034. It exceeds the shared-dual raking-and-relabeling resampler on 22 of 24 datasets, with a mean gain of $0.092$, and on all eight one-versus-rest tasks of a shared gene-expression cohort. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of using raking duals as reusable scores for improving rare-class ranking while retaining classifiers trained at the original prior.

The Generalized Naive Bayes (GNB) model was introduced for discrete and categorical random variables as an extension of classic Naive Bayes. We now accommodate the GNB framework to continuous explanatory variables. A central result of the paper is that structure learning of the GNB depends only on the pair copulas of the bi-variate marginals. We proved that the GNB structure can be assigned to the basis of a matroid, therefore we give greedy algorithms for finding the optimal GNB structure on the training data, in sense of minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence. Three cases are considered: joint Gaussian distribution, then a more flexible model where we suppose the dependence structure to be described by a Gaussian copula with arbitrary marginals, and an even more flexible case where the joint continuous probability distribution is arbitrary, i.e. copula and marginal distributions are arbitrary. A method for model reduction, based on the newly introduced concept of GNB forest is given. We close the paper by comparing the newly introduced GNB classification results to other classical "glass-box" algorithms on real datasets.

Dictionary learning seeks to recover an unknown dictionary $A$ from observations ${\bf y}_i = A{\bf x}_i$ with sparse coefficient vectors ${\bf x}_i$. We introduce the Iterative Atom Refinement (IAR) algorithm, a simple procedure for recovering individual dictionary atoms. Starting from a random direction, IAR repeatedly selects the observations most strongly correlated with the current iterate and updates the direction by averaging the selected data. Our main contribution is a rigorous convergence theory of IAR. Using high-dimensional probabilistic estimates and a novel monotonicity principle for atom-selection probabilities, we show that a small initial advantage of one atom is amplified until that atom is isolated. Under our model assumptions, IAR identifies a generating atom after only three refinement steps. Numerical experiments support the theory and show that the resulting dynamics accurately capture the behavior observed in dictionary refinement.

Modern conditional generative models face significant challenges when learning complex covariate dependencies. While sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) provides a principled approach to compress these dependencies, traditional SDR frameworks were not formulated for conditional generation. To bridge this gap, we propose Belted Engression, a unified and architecturally parameter-efficient framework for generative distributional regression. Our approach establishes an end-to-end compress-then-generate paradigm driven by sufficient representation learning, embedding a structural bottleneck into the generative architecture. Theoretically, we prove that the standard SDR condition is equivalent to a law-preserving generative factorization, which is achieved at the global optimum of the population Belted Engression objective. Furthermore, by uncovering a localized Bernstein-type control for the energy-score loss, we establish finite-sample convergence rates that are sharper than those of existing results. We also prove that this belted architecture is strictly smaller, operating with an asymptotically vanishing parameter count relative to the unstructured baseline. Extensive simulations and real-world applications demonstrate that Belted Engression achieves superior distributional prediction and SDR recovery with fewer trainable parameters.

Probabilistic forecasting requires accurate central predictions and calibrated uncertainty estimates. This paper presents TEMPER, the Temporal Encoder-Masked Probabilistic Ensemble Regressor, a univariate time-series forecasting algorithm that combines a temporal autoencoder, a differentiable masked neural decision forest, continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) training, and Gaussian-mixture post-processing. The R implementation is built on torch for R and returns horizon-wise density, distribution, quantile, and sampler functions. We evaluate TEMPER on three deterministic synthetic level series with trend, periodic, regime-switching, nonlinear-threshold, and heteroskedastic components. Across 96 rolling-origin forecasts at horizons t + 1, t + 5, t + 20, and t + 60, TEMPER obtains 2.824% mean CRPS normalized by origin level, 3.635% median absolute error, and 68.8% empirical 90% interval coverage after training with a 300-epoch cap and early-stopping patience of 100. A naive persistence bootstrap has the best aggregate CRPS, 2.763%, while TEMPER has the best median absolute error and the best CRPS at t+1 and t+5. The ablation study uses matched series-origin-horizon cells, horizon-wise CRPS deltas, endpoint sensitivity summaries, and a calibration-specific interval study. Relaxing the learned mask improves average CRPS by 0.472 percentage points on the ablation subset, mainly through long-horizon gains. A twofold interval inflation improves held-out coverage from 54.2% to 91.7% and gives the best 90% interval score among tested calibration rules. The results identify calibration, horizon-specific tuning, and component selection as the central research priorities.

In high-dimensional tabular learning, feature screening provides a lightweight, model-agnostic way to remove irrelevant features before model fitting. However, scoring raw values directly can miss nonlinear or distributional structure. We introduce PACE (Plug-and-Play Contextual Embedding), which inserts a frozen tabular foundation model (TFM) column encoder before an existing feature-scoring rule, expanding each feature into a higher-dimensional contextual representation. Across controlled studies, PACE improves raw-space screening of complex nonlinear dependence with only modest additional encoding cost. These gains translate to downstream prediction on TALENT datasets: PACE-DC improves binary AUC by 0.077 and multiclass macro-AUC by 0.064, with a median normalized RMSE improvement of 0.063 across ten learners. Matched random-weight and random-feature controls show that PACE gains from pretrained structure beyond generic dimensional expansion. PACE further achieves favorable performance–time trade-offs against task-fitted selectors and attribution-based methods, positioning pretrained column geometry as a reusable upstream primitive for tabular learning.

We study second- and higher-order methods for solving smooth monotone variational inequalities (MVI). Monteiro and Svaiter (SIAM J. Optim., 2012) showed that a second-order method, NPE, converges at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1.5})$. For convex-concave minimax optimization, a subclass of MVI problems, Chen, Liu, Luo, and Zhang (COLT 2025) recently improved this rate to $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}( T^{-1.75})$. However, the result has a substantial gap compared to the lower bound of $\Omega(T^{-2.5})$ established by Chen et al. (2026). In this paper, we propose a novel second-order method that achieves the optimal rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-2.5})$. Our algorithm also extends to higher-order methods: for any integer $ p \ge 1$, we obtain a $p$th-order method with a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-(3p-1)/2})$, matching the known lower bounds and therefore establishing optimal rates across all orders.

Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental yet challenging task in scientific research. While existing approaches are primarily based on conditional independence tests, structure scores, or restrictive functional assumptions, we propose Decoupled Causal Discovery (DCD), a novel decoupling-based perspective that does not rely on these methodologies. DCD directly identifies the Markov boundary (MB) by decoupling non-target variables via weighting functions, such that only variables within the MB preserve dependence with the target under the decoupled distribution. Building on this, DCD iteratively constructs the Completed Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (CPDAG) by exploiting structural asymmetries within the MBs. We establish the theoretical identifiability, soundness, and completeness of DCD. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that DCD achieves strong performance, particularly excelling in challenging noise regimes.

In clinical trials, randomization of treatment and control groups is typically used to ensure the groups have similar covariate distributions on average, resulting in unbiased causal effect estimation. Such balanced covariate distributions are hard to achieve in practice, however, due to recruitment costs, patient dropouts, and more. One possible solution to this problem is to include control patients from external, real world databases. In this paper, we propose DBML, a method that selects control units from a real world database by matching the distribution between the treatment group and the potential control group, instead of matching units between two groups. DBML has three steps. First, we detect anomalous database units (with respect to the treatment distribution) using a variational autoencoder. Second, we re-weight the remaining database units to match the distribution of the treatments. Finally, we use these weights to sample units for our control group. The proposed method is compared to alternative matching-based algorithms and weighted algorithms, achieving superior performance in covariate balance.

Bayesian filtering provides a principled framework for online state estimation under uncertainty, yet its application to systems with high-dimensional states and complicated posterior distributions remains challenging. Recent generative models, such as flow matching, have shown potential in Bayesian filtering. However, they still rely on particle-based representations of the posterior, which lose the rich information of the full distribution, or tackle a trajectory-level inverse problem that conflicts with the recursive structure of Bayesian filtering. To address this, we propose a new perspective of directly encoding the evolving distribution into flow matching model weights, namely, the Belief Flow Filter (BFF). It is a generative filtering framework that updates model weights via gradient descent at test time to track the posterior evolution. Thereby, BFF bypasses the scalability issue of particle representations or the flexibility limitation of Gaussian assumptions in conventional filters. We theoretically justify that the BFF design is structurally aligned with Bayesian filtering, and its training objective targets the recursive filtering operator. BFF is empirically verified across 5 different physical systems, including ones with chaotic dynamics and highly sparse, non-linear observations. The results show that BFF attains the best score in 8 of 9 metric-benchmark cells across the three standard 1D and 2D PDE benchmarks, and similarly leads on the extreme single-moving-sensor setting and on a real-world-grounded tokamak plasma estimation task, demonstrating its potential to accurately approximate the Bayesian filtering operator in high-dimensional probability space.

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth–death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

Data assimilation aims to infer the state of complex dynamical systems based on observational data. However, accurate inference of the multimodal posteriors induced by nonlinear or non-injective observation operators remains a key challenge under high-dimensional and sparse observation conditions. Ensemble filters scale to high dimensions but are confined by restrictive distributional assumptions, while training-free generative filters (e.g., EnSF, EnFF) alleviate this limitation but may introduce structural errors and hinder information propagation under sparse observations. To address these issues, we propose a training-free, asymptotically exact posterior transport method. Firstly, a covariance-aware posterior transport scheme is designed, which embeds the forecast cross-covariance into flow-based transport and accurately recovers unobserved states while preserving the non-Gaussian posterior structure. Furthermore, the method combines a tractable observation-adaptive proposal with posterior correction, ensuring accurate approximation of the nonlinear posterior distribution. Finally, we establish the corresponding posterior flow theory, from which the asymptotic exactness of the proposed method relative to finite-ensemble surrogates and the Wasserstein error bound are derived. Experiments on Double-Well, Lorenz-96, and Kolmogorov flow show that the proposed method captures complex posterior structure and remains accurate under sparse, nonlinear, and non-injective observations. In the sparse non-injective setting, it reduces RMSE by 56% relative to the best baseline.

The Deck-of-cards-based Ordinal Regression (DOR) infers a value function from a ranking of reference alternatives in which the Decision Maker (DM) inserts blank cards between consecutive levels to express preference intensity. DOR, and its stochastic extension (SMAA-DOR), treat these answers as hard constraints defining a set of compatible value functions. We propose B-DOR, a probabilistic reformulation of DOR in which each pair of adjacent levels yields an ordinal observation, the declared direction and the number of cards, modelled through a cumulative-link likelihood that relates the number of blank cards to the latent value difference between alternatives. Two Bayesian inference algorithms are proposed: BAYES-DOR samples the whole posterior distribution by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; FTRL-DOR tracks the maximum a posteriori estimate by constrained convex optimization. Moreover, through a multi-step elicitation process, elicitation can be spread over several short sessions reducing the cognitive burden on the DM. Both algorithms enjoy logarithmic regret bounds for prediction that hold for any sequence of DM responses and that guide the choice of the prior hyperparameters. A Monte Carlo study over 768 configurations shows that accuracy grows with the number of sessions, that blank cards add significant information over preference directions alone, that both algorithms maintain good performance under inconsistent answers, and that both outperform DOR and SMAA-DOR. An illustrative application to Italian regional healthcare performance demonstrates the practical applicability of the approach for building composite indicators.

Modern prediction-driven decision systems often rely on black-box predictors, but a point forecast alone does not provide the uncertainty scale required for robust downstream decision-making. We build a score-calibrated robustness framework that converts any fixed point predictor into a decision-relevant uncertainty representation through distribution-free conformal calibration. We use the conformal score, rather than a particular uncertainty set, as the primitive unit of robustness. The same score determines coverage-calibrated uncertainty sets for reliability-based robust optimization and normalizes target violations in a target-oriented formulation, Conformal Robust Satisficing. This formulation induces a conformal fragility measure that quantifies how rapidly performance deteriorates as the realized parameter departs from the forecast on the conformal score scale. For objective-uncertainty problems under standard convexity and duality conditions, we show that the reliability-based and target-oriented formulations parameterize the same score-calibrated robust decision frontier. This equivalence yields a data-driven mapping between reliability levels and acceptable targets and characterizes the marginal cost of robustness. Synthetic experiments validate the theoretical guarantees and illustrate the reliability-target correspondence. A real-data online-grocery case study demonstrates how the interface combines deep-learning demand forecasts with tractable inventory optimization, thereby improving reliability and reducing operational costs. Overall, our work shows that conformal scores endow fixed black-box predictors with an interpretable uncertainty scale for downstream decision-making while enabling reliability guarantees, acceptable-target selection, and fragility analysis within a unified framework.

Comparing probability measures in machine learning trades transport geometry against computational cost: Wasserstein distances encode the geometry of $\mathbb R^d$ but require solving a transport problem, while kernel discrepancies are cheap to evaluate yet depend delicately on their test class. We study the Toscani–Fourier family $\mathrm T_{s,p}$, the weighted $L^p$ norm of the difference of two characteristic functions, as a continuous Fourier-side discrepancy on $\mathbb R^d$. For $1\le p<\infty$ we show that $d/p<s<1+d/p$ is exactly the window in which $\mathrm T_{s,p}$ is finite on $\mathcal P_p(\mathbb R^d)$, both endpoints already failing for a pair of Dirac measures, and we establish the metric, embedding, and compactness structure of the resulting space, which we prove to be complete. Duality identifies $\mathrm T_{s,p}$ as an integral probability metric over a homogeneous Fourier–Lebesgue ball, with an explicit extremizer when $1<p<\infty$. We prove the global bound $\mathrm T_{s,p}\lesssim W_p^{\,s-d/p}$, whose exponent is sharp, show that no global converse of any form can hold, and recover topological equivalence with $W_p$ on bounded-support and uniform-tail classes, together with explicit reverse moduli on bounded-support classes that improve the imported energy-kernel exponent at $p=2$. There, $\mathrm T_{s,2}$ is a constant multiple of the classical energy distance, which yields an exact finite-sample identity for the mean of the empirical discrepancy; the numerical experiments are otherwise diagnostic.