Papers

When providing forecasted probabilities with a predictive model, the ideal model offers perfect calibration: the true probability of the outcome (i.e., the probability that $Y=1$) exactly matches the forecasted probability $f(X)$. In practice, models inevitably exhibit calibration error, and it is therefore important to be able to measure this miscalibration to assess a model's reliability. The Expected Calibration Error (ECE) is the most widely used measure of miscalibration, but is known to be impossible to estimate the ECE with guaranteed accuracy in an assumption-free setting. In this work, we propose an alternative measure, the rankECE, that is based on comparing points with neighboring values of the predicted probability $f(X)$. Our theoretical guarantees and empirical results establish that rankECE provides a better proxy for ECE as compared to binned approximations to ECE, which are the most commonly-used approximations in practice.

Deep neural networks are expressive enough to contain worst-case targets that can be evaluated in polynomial time but cannot be learned in polynomial time by gradient descent. For practical tasks they nonetheless learn well, raising the question of what non-generic structure of real-world targets enables this. Existing surrogate models cannot pose this question because they either lack hard-to-learn targets entirely (deep linear networks) or cannot evaluate such targets efficiently (kernel methods, infinite-width limits). We study tree tensor networks (TTNs), a model class that generalizes deep linear networks and Tucker decompositions. We show they embed arbitrary read-once Boolean formulas, and thus contain polynomial-size targets that cannot be learned by gradient descent in polynomial time under the same mechanism as neural networks. Despite this, we prove that their loss landscapes are conditionally benign for every realizable target: every local minimum that is minimum-norm is global. Thus, surprisingly, bad local minima are not what distinguishes between typical and worst-case problems in TTNs. Instead, learning difficulty in TTNs can arise from high-order degenerate saddle points, which we show are caused by rank-deficiency. This is explored through a case study of the parity function, illustrating the potential for TTNs to relate landscape geometry to computational hardness.

Transfer learning explores how to leverage knowledge from various tasks or domains (sources) to enhance predictive performance in related tasks or domains (targets). Typically, transfer learning research is segmented into several isolated sub-areas (such as domain generalisation, domain adaptation, or multi-domain learning), each making distinct assumptions about target data availability, namely how much data and how many labels are available at training time. However, in many real-world applications, data availability is not fixed but evolves over time, as instances and labels are progressively collected from a new domain. Each of the classical settings then describes only a snapshot of a trajectory that a deployed system must traverse in full. We formalise this trajectory as a transfer learning problem in its own right, Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a learning protocol that the method is free to choose, and an evaluation criterion that scores the whole trajectory of models rather than a single one. Within this formalism, the classical settings are recovered as regimes that a learner may pass through, rather than as separate problems that TrED concatenates. We then examine the transfer learning literature to identify mechanisms that are promising building blocks for a solution, and find that most methods are tailored to a single regime and that even the strongest existing candidates do not yet optimise the whole trajectory. We argue that TrED is a well-posed and unsolved problem, and an important direction for future research.

Classical convergence guarantees for stochastic gradient methods typically assume Lipschitz-smooth objectives and finite-variance gradient noise, both frequently violated in practice. In contrast, we study nonconvex stochastic optimization under the joint relaxation of these assumptions: objectives with $(L,s)$-Hölder continuous gradients, $s\in(0,1]$, and gradient noise satisfying only a bounded $\alpha$-th moment condition for $\alpha\in(1,2]$. We establish three convergence results. Firstly, that standard SGD converges at rate $O(T^{-s/(1+s)})$ whenever $\alpha\ge1+s$, extending the classical nonconvex SGD rate to heavy-tailed noise and Hölder smoothness simultaneously. Secondly, we analyze $\delta$-regularized gradient clipping ($\delta$-GClip), a provable trainer of wide and deep nets, and establish a stationarity rate of $O(T^{-2s(\alpha-1)/[(1+s)(2\alpha-1)]})$ under the same condition. Thirdly, we analyze standard gradient clipping (G-Clip) and show that it recovers the above rate for $\alpha\ge1+s$ while in the very heavy-tailed regime $\alpha<1+s$, it has a convergence rate $O(T^{-2s(\alpha-1)/[(\alpha-1)+s(2\alpha-1)]})$ — the first convergence guarantee in this regime for any stochastic gradient based method.

In many settings involving stochastic differential equations, including in diffusion based generative AI, our aim is to accurately generate samples from a terminal distribution. Typically, this is done by generating i.i.d. samples of diffusion paths. Given a fixed simulation budget, a reasonable way to gain efficiency may be to instead generate a tree of paths through appropriately split partial paths. This suggests improved performance, but one worries about the injected dependence. In this paper, we study this issue comprehensively. With Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance as a measure of accuracy, we identify the limiting errors of the associated empirical distributions as the simulation budget increases to infinity. We characterize a splitting strategy motivated by a corresponding asymptotic optimization problem. The theoretical results bring out the elegant underlying structure in the problem. Practical implementation involves two phases, an initial estimation phase and a final inference phase. Overall, we observe a 10-25% improvement in mean error over i.i.d. samples in many settings. In an exploratory CIFAR-10 study, our method reduces the maximum mean discrepancy by 8-13%.

We formulate and analyze the linear exponential quadratic Gaussian (LEQG) covariance steering problem in continuous time over a given deadline (finite time horizon). The solution for this problem can be seen as a risk-sensitive Schrödinger bridge between Gaussian endpoints in the linear quadratic setting. Unlike the risk-neutral case, the LEQG covariance steering controller–still a linear state feedback–can no longer be written in closed form. We show that the optimal controller is parameterized by a symmetric matrix solving an algebraic equation that encodes the implicit dependence on the risk-sensitivity parameter. We explain how the structure of this optimal controller significantly generalizes the existing results for the risk-neutral case. Building on these results, for the matched noise and input channel case, we prove the existence-uniqueness of solution for the LEQG covariance steering problem in the neighborhood of the known risk-neutral optimal solution. We give an illustrative numerical example.

Community detection in bipartite networks is a fundamental problem in modern data analysis, with applications in recommendation systems, biological networks, and social network analysis. Unlike conventional unipartite graphs, bipartite networks consist of two distinct types of nodes with edges only connecting across types, so recovering latent communities requires estimating labels on the two node types. The stochastic co-blockmodel is a classical probabilistic framework for such networks, yet theoretical guarantees for exact community recovery in this setting remain limited, especially when the number of communities grows, the community sizes are unbalanced, or the degrees are heterogeneous. In this work, we prove that a simple spectral clustering algorithm based on the diagonal-deleted Gram matrix achieves exact recovery with high probability under mild conditions on sparsity, community balance, and the number of clusters. We further extend the result to the degree-corrected stochastic co-blockmodel, where each node carries its own degree heterogeneity parameter, and show that a row-normalized version of the same algorithm maintains the exact recovery guarantee. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical findings.

We study an online sketched Newton method that approximates the Newton direction at each step via a state-of-the-art sketching solver, called the generalized accelerated sketch-and-project solver (GAS), thereby mitigating the computational bottleneck of classical second-order methods. The GAS solver improves upon vanilla, unaccelerated sketch-and-project solvers by achieving accelerated convergence through Nesterov momentum updates, and accommodates a flexible projection metric whose proper choice further reduces computational cost. Building on this design, we establish asymptotic normality of the averaged sketched Newton iterates and characterize their limiting covariance matrix. The resulting covariance recovers that of the unaccelerated sketched Newton method under a specific choice of acceleration parameters, converges more rapidly (in the number of sketching steps) to the minimax-optimal covariance in general, and is smaller than that of the last iterate produced by the accelerated method. Finally, we strengthen these results by establishing a functional central limit theorem for the Newton iterates, which allows us to bypass explicit covariance estimation and develop an online inference procedure based on random scaling. Specifically, we construct a pivotal test statistic by appropriately rescaling the averaged iterates, so that its limiting distribution is free of any unknown parameters, enabling asymptotically valid online inference. Numerical experiments demonstrate superior performance of the proposed inference procedure.

Dementia is a major and growing global health burden, with Alzheimer's disease (AD) accounting for most cases. Timely and accurate diagnosis is central to managing this burden and increasingly depends on integrating complementary clinical and imaging information. Multimodal deep learning can combine these modalities for AD diagnosis, but how its explanations behave across modalities, fusion strategies, and cohorts remains unclear. We developed an explainable multimodal framework pairing a 3D CNN encoder for T1-weighted MRI with a feedforward network for harmonized clinical and demographic data, comparing varied model setups on three-way and pairwise diagnostic tasks using 6,479 internal records from the ADNI and 1,703 independent records from the OASIS-3. On ADNI, the tabular-only model achieved the highest three-class AUC-ROC of 0.879 and best discriminated cognitively normal (CN) versus mild cognitive impairment (MCI; 0.903), while cross-attention performed best for MCI versus AD (0.861); CN versus AD was highly discriminative overall. On OASIS-3, the vision-only model performed best (three-class AUC-ROC 0.910); CN versus MCI remained difficult, and no fusion strategy consistently outperformed single modalities across tasks and cohorts. SHAP and Integrated Gradients identified the MMSE as the dominant tabular feature in both cohorts, with global feature rankings agreeing strongly in ADNI ($\rho=0.94$) and OASIS-3 ($\rho=0.96$); CAM-based explanations, however, changed with model configuration and cohort. These findings show that multimodal performance and explanations are task, modality, fusion, and cohort-dependent: a dominant cognitive signal persisted across cohorts, but feature contributions and CAM explanations did not, underscoring the need to evaluate explainability under cohort shift rather than as a stable, intrinsic property.

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) have emerged as a compelling paradigm for language modeling, offering the capability for efficient parallel text generation. However, existing parallel sampling methods typically update multiple masked tokens independently and ignore the complex mutual dependencies among the masked tokens. This independent updating mechanism lacks global coordination and might lead to incoherent outputs. To address this limitation, we propose Representation-based Masked Diffusion Model (RMDM), a framework that leverages the text representation to explicitly encode global semantics and help to parallel update tokens more precisely. Specifically, we first encode text into a continuous semantic space using a pretrained encoder and learn an invertible transformation that normalizes the representation distribution to a Gaussian prior, facilitating efficient sampling during generation. Conditioned on this latent semantic representation, we train a masked diffusion model to learn the conditional text distribution, where the representation serves as global semantic guidance to coordinate parallel token updates and faithfully approximate the target distribution. Empirical results demonstrate that RMDM significantly improves generation quality, particularly in aggressive few-step sampling regimes.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) are the standard tool for auditing the privacy risks of machine learning models. Given a query point, an MIA aims to determine whether that point was used to train the target model. In practice, such inference must rely on the statistical signals exposed by the model's outputs, such as confidence scores, logits, and intermediate feature representations. However, existing methods often fail to efficiently summarize and combine these statistical signals. To address this limitation, we propose Pairwise Likelihood MIA (PL-MIA), a unified method that combines a Gaussian likelihood-ratio (GLR) statistic with population calibration and the Cauchy combination test. We characterize theoretically how the GLR retains variance-contraction signals and establish conditions under which population calibration and Cauchy combination improve attack power. We obtain $p$-values from pairwise comparisons between the query point and reference points not used for training, and aggregate these continuous signals using the Cauchy combination test. This preserves the evidence strength that is discarded when each pairwise comparison is reduced to a binary vote. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PL-MIA outperforms strong baselines, improving the true positive rate (TPR) by over 25% in the critical low-false-positive regime, corroborating our theoretical findings. These results demonstrate how statistical principles can turn noisy model outputs into more powerful, calibrated, and reproducible evidence for membership privacy auditing.

We study the problem of estimating unknown parameters in PDE-constrained inverse problems from noisy observations, where the PDE solution is approximated using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). While PINNs have demonstrated remarkable empirical success, existing estimators often inherit the slow nonparametric convergence rate of the neural-network solution, leading to biased and statistically inefficient inference for the finite-dimensional parameters of interest. To address this, we propose a two-step debiased estimation procedure that combines neural-network-based nonparametric estimation with an influence-function-based bias correction. By eliminating the first-order sensitivity of the estimator to errors in the nuisance function, our procedure yields a $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal estimator without requiring undersmoothing of the neural network component. We further extend this framework to Bayesian inference by replacing the original likelihood with a debiased quasi-likelihood and establish a Bernstein-von Mises theorem showing that the resulting posterior contracts at the $\sqrt{n}$-rate with an asymptotic covariance matching that of the frequentist estimator. As a by-product of our analysis, we establish near-minimax optimal convergence rates for estimating a nonparametric regression function and its derivatives in Sobolev spaces using neural networks. Extensive numerical experiments corroborate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the necessity of the proposed debiasing procedure for valid statistical inference in PDE-constrained inverse problems.

This paper develops a theorem-level pipeline in symmetry-quotient settings: quotient linear stability implies quotient flatness, quotient flatness implies input smoothness, and input smoothness yields generalization under local covering assumptions. Flatness is often associated with generalization, and Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is frequently viewed as implicitly biased toward flat solutions. However, standard flatness measures are typically defined in the raw parameter space and are therefore not invariant under function-preserving symmetries such as positive rescaling. We develop a symmetry-aware theory of quotient flatness, quotient linear stability, input smoothness, and generalization on quotient spaces of neural-network parameters. For square loss and models equipped with function-preserving group actions, we define quotient flatness as the trace of the Hessian of the empirical loss on the regular quotient manifold. We show that quotient flatness controls input smoothness through a quotient-space analogue of the flatness-to-smoothness argument. We also prove that one-step mean-square quotient linear stability of the linearized SGD dynamics implies an explicit quotient-flatness bound in terms of the batch size and learning rate, and extend this analysis to higher-order tensor moments. Finally, under local covering and boundedness assumptions, we derive population generalization bounds in terms of quotient flatness and, consequently, in terms of quotient linear stability.

Medical image classification is frequently complicated by transitional categories whose feature distributions overlap those of adjacent classes, producing ambiguous decision boundaries. Conformal prediction returns uncertainty-aware prediction sets, but these are not directly actionable in clinical screening, where a single decision is required. This work proposes adaptive conformal redistribution (AdaConRed), a label-free post-conformal decision rule that converts ambiguous prediction sets into refined class assignments. A five-stage pipeline is developed. Vision-language generative augmentation addresses minority-class scarcity; a frozen DermFoundation encoder provides embeddings; a lightweight multi-layer perceptron performs classification; an entropy-modulated, margin-aware nonconformity score constructs adaptive prediction sets; samples predicted as transitional with multi-label sets are reassigned to the most probable alternative class within the set, using only model outputs at inference. Evaluation uses the OSCC oral lesion and ISIC skin lesion benchmarks at a miscoverage level of 0.2. On the 3-class OSCC benchmark, overall accuracy improves from 73.54% to 77.38%, with oral cancer accuracy rising from 64.29% to 82.14% and benign accuracy from 56.57% to 70.20%. Reassignment of transitional samples reduces OPMD accuracy from 84.78% to 80.16%, consistent with the asymmetric cost of missed malignancy. On ISIC, overall accuracy improves from 85.83% to 87.19%, melanoma accuracy rising from 66.04% to 68.34%. AdaConRed outperforms LAC, APS and RAPS under an identical backbone and redistribution rule. Conformal prediction can be extended beyond uncertainty quantification toward actionable decision support where transitional disease categories are present, with gains concentrated in the clinically critical malignant categories. Code repository: https://github.com/saibal436ghosh/AdaConRed.

Inference-time power sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) can substantially improve large language model (LLM) reasoning without requiring post-training. However, many existing SMC approaches rely on equal-weight resampling, which can aggressively prune low-weight trajectories, discarding potentially correct reasoning paths and degrading the genealogical diversity of the search space. To address this, we introduce Chopthin-Consensus Power Sampling (CCPS). Our method applies the Chopthin resampler to LLM decoding: rather than equalizing weights and forcing unnecessary particle duplication, it enforces an upper bound on the ratio between the largest and smallest weights and carries the unequal weights forward. This targeted intervention preserves a richer set of distinct reasoning paths, keeps the weighted SMC approximation unchanged in conditional expectation, and guarantees a lower bound on the post-resampling effective sample size (ESS). To fully exploit this enriched population, we employ a semantic-majority selection mechanism that merges token-identical final trajectories, clusters semantically equivalent answers, and returns the answer supported by the largest number of distinct trajectories. Evaluating across three open-weight models and five reasoning benchmarks, we show that Chopthin increases oracle coverage in 13 of 15 settings. Combined with semantic-majority selection, CCPS matches or exceeds the final-answer accuracy of the Power-SMC baseline in 14 of 15 settings, delivering absolute gains of up to 10.6 percentage points. These findings demonstrate that diversity-preserving resampling and diversity-aware selection are complementary mechanisms for training-free LLM reasoning. Code is available at github.com/MinooAhmadii/chopthin-consensus-power-sampling.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is an effective approach for adapting large pretrained models by learning low-rank weight updates. In practice, the LoRA rank is used to control an adapter's parameter budget and representational capacity. We show that this view is incomplete: while the nominal rank determines the representational capacity, the optimizer shapes how much of that capacity is used in the induced weight-space updates. In a case study of GPT-2 adaptation with LoRA, we observe a strong rank-dependent optimizer effect. Despite using the same nominal rank, AdamW often produces per-step updates with concentrated singular spectra and low effective rank, whereas Muon uses a richer set of directions and benefits more consistently from increasing LoRA rank. These observations motivate ISO-LoRA, an optimizer that couples the LoRA factor updates through spectral descent on the induced tangent perturbation in weight space. ISO-LoRA promotes updates that distribute energy more evenly across singular directions, improving rank utilization while preserving compatibility with the LoRA parameterization. We complement this design with theoretical guarantees showing that ISO-LoRA can achieve higher effective rank than standard factor-wise optimizers through a one-step analysis under a stylized spiked-gradient model. We validate this design on language-model adaptation across 0.1B-7B-parameter models, where ISO-LoRA improves effective rank and downstream performance, with the strongest gains at moderate-to-large LoRA ranks. Our results highlight rank utilization as a key factor in LoRA optimization and suggest that optimizer design offers an important path toward stronger parameter-efficient adaptation.

Outliers are important for stress-testing algorithms and understanding system behaviour under rare conditions. Despite being commonly described as low-likelihood events, existing generative approaches rarely control likelihood explicitly. In this work, we introduce a measure-theoretic notion of outliers based on the distribution of log-likelihood values, which is guaranteed to assign higher probability mass to low-likelihood events with a specifiable magnitude. Building on this formulation, we derive how likelihood reweighting modifies the diffusion score and use this relation to motivate a controlled modification of the reverse-time dynamics. In particular, likelihood reweighting implies a scaling of the score function with a control term derived from the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the likelihood distributions. Correspondingly, the updated score function can be obtained with no retraining of the diffusion model. We exploit the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup underlying diffusion models to motivate an exponentially interpolated controller which approximates the true control. Experiments demonstrate controlled generation of low-likelihood samples while remaining consistent with the data geometry.

We propose a learning procedure for system identification in interacting particle systems from single-snapshot observations of collective behaviors, unlike existing approaches that rely on observations of trajectories. This setting leads to a fundamentally ill-posed inverse problem, which we solve by using a regularization strategy based on the empirical distribution of observed configurations, drawn from different, unobserved initial conditions. We test our learning procedure on a variety of representative models with steady-state and quasi-stationary patterns, where collective behaviors encode implicit information about the interaction mechanisms, demonstrating that our approach enables stable and accurate recovery of the underlying interaction laws, leading to faithful reproduction of the collective behavior, and in many cases even of the dynamics leading up to it.

Generalization under distribution shift remains a core challenge in modern machine learning, yet existing learning bound theory is limited to narrow, idealized settings and is non-estimable from samples. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theory and practical applications. We first show that existing definition of concept shift breaks when the source and target supports mismatch. Leveraging entropic optimal transport, we propose a key notion: $\gamma^{*}\!$-concept shifts, and derive a general error bound unifying covariate and $\gamma^{*}\!$-concept shifts, which applies to broad loss functions, label spaces, and stochastic labeling. We further develop estimators for these shifts with concentration guarantees, and the DataShifts algorithm, which can quantify distribution shifts and estimate the error bound in most applications - a rigorous and general tool for analyzing learning error under distribution shift.

Generative artificial intelligence changes how firms reach customers, but standard marketing data do not record how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers. We develop Generative Marketing Mix Modeling (GMMM) to estimate the causal effects of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) and Generative Engine Marketing (GEM). For GEO, GMMM combines repeated generated answers with question counts, shares of use across generative systems, and notice probabilities. For GEM, it combines records of sponsored placements with notice probabilities. GMMM compares expected business responses under alternative treatment sequences and establishes sufficient conditions for identifying the resulting effects. We investigate the empirical performance of the proposed method using simulated answers to product recommendation in English and Japanese.

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides high-frequency measurements of glucose dynamics and enables short-term glucose forecasting for diabetes management. Although time-series foundation models have shown strong general forecasting ability, their effectiveness for CGM prediction and the added value of multimodal dietary context remain unclear. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study using eight public CGM datasets spanning Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol across multiple context lengths and prediction horizons, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform strong task-specific baselines such as Elastic Net and PatchTST. In contrast, lightweight fine-tuning substantially improved forecasting performance. For example, fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reduced RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and by 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort, with comparable improvements in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test settings. We further evaluate multimodal dietary context using CGMacros, which provides temporally aligned CGM signals, food images, and macronutrient records. A residual-based fusion framework reduced overall RMSE by approximately 3% and postprandial RMSE by approximately 15% relative to the CGM-only baseline. Moreover, Chronos-based CGM representations were more strongly correlated with observed postprandial glucose increments than representations from LSTM and CatBoost, even after those models incorporated additional dietary modalities, suggesting that pretrained temporal representations better preserve meal-induced excursion patterns. These findings show that foundation models require CGM-specific adaptation for reliable forecasting and that dietary context provides clinically meaningful signals beyond CGM alone, especially during postprandial periods.

We study the nonlocal continuity equation \[ \partial_t\mu_b =\operatorname{div}\!\left( \mu_b\nabla\log\bigl((I-b^2\Delta)^{-1}\mu_b\bigr) \right) \] on a closed connected Riemannian manifold. For smooth strictly positive initial data, we prove that as $b \to 0$, its global solution converges to heat flow $\mu(t)$ at the sharp, uniform-in-time rate \[ \sup_{t\ge0}\|\mu_b(t)-\mu(t)\|_{L^1}\le Cb^2. \] The key estimate is the uniform dissipation of a $b$-weighted higher-order resolvent energy, which yields exponential relaxation despite the absence of a Wasserstein gradient-flow structure. On the circle, we also analyze the corresponding deterministic $N$-particle dynamics. A weak–strong modulated energy argument gives \[ \mathbb E\!\left[ \sup_{t\ge0}W_1(\mu_b^N(t),\mu_b(t)) \right] \le C(Nb)^{-1/2} \] for iid initialization. Consequently, the choice $b\asymp N^{-1/5}$ approximates heat flow uniformly in time at rate $N^{-2/5}$.

We study reinforcement learning (RL) with transition look-ahead, where the agent may observe which states would be visited upon playing any sequence of actions before deciding its course of action. Although look-ahead can substantially improve achievable performance, [1] showed that optimal planning with multi-step transition look-ahead is NP-hard. However, this hardness was established using a discount factor close to one. It was therefore unknown whether the problem remains hard for every discount factor, and whether near-optimal planning can nevertheless be performed efficiently. We resolve both questions. First, we show that for every fixed discount factor, exact planning remains NP-hard. Second, we introduce a randomized polynomial-time approximation scheme for every fixed look-ahead depth. Third, we extend our approach to account for unknown transitions. We empirically validate the soundness of our results on the wind-farm storage-control benchmark of [2], showing that our approach, optimally accounting for -step look-ahead information, offers substantially better performance than existing algorithms. [1] Corentin Pla, Hugo Richard, Marc Abeille, Nadav Merlis, Vianney Perchet : On the Hardness of Reinforcement Learning with Transition Look-Ahead [2] Chenbei Lu, Zaiwei Chen, Tongxin Li, Chenye Wu, Adam Wierman : Reinforcement Learning with Imperfect Transition Predictions: A Bellman-Jensen Approach

We investigate mean-variance portfolio selection with an $\ell_0$-penalty to promote sparsity in asset allocations. Uncertainty in the mean return vector is incorporated through an ellipsoidal uncertainty set, yielding a robust sparse optimization framework. We characterize the structure of both local and global minimizers and exploit these properties in the risk minimization and return maximization formulations. Building on this structural insight, we develop a branch-and-bound algorithm tailored to the resulting robust sparse portfolio problems, together with a new pruning rule that can discard exponentially many candidate portfolios in a single step. Extensive computational experiments on real market data, together with comparisons against a mixed-integer second-order cone programming solver, demonstrate the effectiveness and competitiveness of the proposed approach.

In this paper, we investigate the generalization performance of distributed gradient descent algorithms in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space under a robust loss function $l_{\sigma}$. By exploiting the spectral characterization of gradient descent together with the intrinsic properties of robust loss functions, we establish optimal learning rates for the distributed kernel-based robust gradient descent (DKRGD) algorithm with an appropriately chosen scale parameter $\sigma$. The proposed parameter choice of $\sigma$ simultaneously alleviates the saturation phenomenon and guarantees statistical robustness. A key technical contribution is a novel error analysis that provides substantially sharper bounds for products of operators, thereby significantly relaxing existing restrictions on the maximum number of local machines while retaining optimal learning rates. Finally, we develop a communication-efficient strategy that further improves the convergence performance of DKRGD.

Coarse spatial resolution limits the ability of subseasonal prediction models to resolve extreme precipitation. Downscaling with either dynamical or deep generative models can overcome this issue, but the comparative performance of these models for extremes across different atmospheric regimes remains poorly understood. In this work, we evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model against a diffusion-based generative model by downscaling two physically distinct, extreme precipitation events up to lead times of 3 weeks. For a fair comparison with WRF, which can downscale boundary conditions from different driving models without model-specific training, the diffusion model is trained in an unpaired fashion. Both approaches improve upon the raw European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts, in comparison to fused rain gauge-radar observations in Switzerland (CombiPrecip), but exhibit regime-dependent strengths. WRF achieves the highest probabilistic skill for a multicell, non-stationary event. Conversely, the diffusion model is more consistent across different performance metrics for the two events, outperforming WRF in a more stationary supercell event. These results demonstrate that explicit dynamical modeling can add value for specific precipitation events for subseasonal lead times, and that generative downscaling adds value more broadly in different situations.

Multivariate time series imputation (MTSI) aims to recover missing values in temporal data composed of multiple interdependent variables. This problem is central to real-world applications such as healthcare monitoring, traffic networks, and energy systems. Recent diffusion-based approaches have shown strong potential for probabilistic imputation by learning to generate missing values through iterative denoising. However, most existing approaches perform diffusion directly in the original data space, requiring the denoising network to simultaneously capture global structure, temporal dynamics, and stochastic variability. This makes the generative task unnecessarily complex, especially when modern deterministic imputers can already provide accurate initial reconstructions. To address this limitation, we propose RDDMPI, a conditional residual diffusion framework that operates directly in residual space. Instead of modeling the full missing signal directly, we reformulate probabilistic imputation as a baseline-residual decomposition, where a pretrained model captures the dominant signal and a diffusion process models the residual uncertainty. To better exploit deterministic guidance, \model{} conditions the reverse denoising process on both the baseline-completed signal and its latent representation, while a reliability-aware conditioning mechanism adaptively controls the influence of baseline information during residual generation. This formulation simplifies the diffusion learning objective, enabling it to focus on structured correction terms rather than reconstructing the full signal. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that RDDMPI consistently improves both reconstruction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Identifiability of tensor decompositions is often established through linear-algebraic conditions on the factor families. For nonnegative decompositions, however, positivity provides additional information that is not captured by dimension and independence alone: nonnegative terms cannot cancel, and their supports constrain competing decompositions. We introduce a positive scattering term that quantifies this additional source of identifiability and combine it with the dimension budget underlying the Lovitz–Petrov generalization of Kruskal's theorem. For every subset of components, we obtain two sufficient conditions: a threshold of $2|S|-2$ guarantees minimality and nonnegative rank, while the stronger threshold $2|S|-1$ guarantees uniqueness among nonnegative decompositions of the same length. The key result is a positive splitting inequality for irreducible exchanges of nonnegative rank-one tensors, which combines the dimension constraint with support-induced geometric rigidity. Although the scattering term is defined through an optimization over intermediate factor spaces, we show that its mode costs are exactly $0$, $1$, or $+\infty$, yielding an exact activation characterization in terms of graph connectivity. The resulting criterion can strictly certify sparse nonnegative tensor decompositions beyond the reach of Kruskal and Lovitz–Petrov conditions, including examples for which those conditions fail even after reshaping. In the matrix case, the two criteria reduce respectively to full-rank factorization and two-sided separability.

Transportation agencies increasingly predict crash-injury severity with statistical and machine-learning models, but these models do not state how often their output contains the recorded injury level or for which groups of drivers it fails, a gap that matters most for motorcyclists and unrestrained drivers. This study develops and evaluates a certification layer that gives any fitted severity model a finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantee within prespecified safety strata. The layer, CHOIR (Conformal Heterogeneity-aware Ordinal Inference with Risk control), combines groupwise and weighted conformal prediction with conformal risk control to return contiguous KABCO intervals, and adds a declared sensitivity analysis for medically assessed injury and bounds on fatal omission. It is evaluated on 4.04 million Texas crashes from 2017-2023, one sampled driver per crash, with seven base models from the ordered logit to a tabular foundation model, and on held-out counties and later years. Under one pooled threshold every model reaches 0.90 coverage overall but covers motorcyclists or unrestrained drivers at 0.868 or lower, and class-balanced gradient boosting covers unrestrained drivers at only 0.374. Calibration within four safety strata places all 28 model-by-stratum estimates between 0.898 and 0.907, at the cost of sets spanning 3.6 to 4.6 of five categories for these groups, and the certified ordered logit is within 0.03 categories of the narrowest model. Injury-model coverage should therefore be certified within safety groups rather than on average, calibration rather than model complexity determines validity, and a statewide threshold should not be applied to small rural counties without local calibration data.

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.