Quantitative Methods
Disease-level drug approval forecasting from trial-agnostic public data
Samir Townsley, Pagkratios Tagkopoulos and Ilias Tagkopoulos
Drug development is an expensive and lengthy process requiring developers to select drugs for human trials and diseases to target. Computational tools that can estimate before testing which drug-disease candidates are most likely to reach FDA approval could reduce development time and costs through early program advancement and disease prioritization. Yet existing approaches predict outcomes at a single level or stage or do not distinguish between disease outcomes for the same drug. We ask (1) whether FDA approval can be forecast for a drug-disease pair using only pre-clinical trial information, and (2) whether these forecasts can help prioritize diseases for the same drug. We built a cohort of 14,134 drug-disease pairs by reconstructing programs from ClinicalTrials.gov, extracting disease-level approvals from FDA label documentation, and enriching each pair with molecular, disease, ADMET, target, and pathway features. We divided the cohort into pre- and post-2019 programs and trained a classifier on pre-2019 data to predict FDA approval. On the post-2019 cohort (2,637 programs), the model would have prioritized a program that ultimately gained approval over one that did not approximately three out of four times. For drugs tested across multiple diseases, selecting the model's highest-ranked disease would have identified an ultimately approved disease 61.3% of the time, compared with 40.7% under random selection. These results show that public pre-trial information contains signal for forecasting FDA approval at the drug-disease level and can help prioritize diseases for the same drug. We provide a public web tool for SMILES- and ICD-10-based drug-disease approval forecasting.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG
RetroGEF: Dynamic Graph Edit Flow for Single-Step Retrosynthesis
Xiaozhuang Song, Xuemin Chen, Xinjian Zhao et al. (+2 more)
Retrosynthesis enables the discovery of viable synthetic routes to target molecules. It plays a central role in modern drug discovery and materials design. Retrosynthesis involves molecular graph transformations that can change both connectivity and graph size. These transformations may introduce reactant components absent from the target while revising the product-derived structure. To model these transformations, we propose RetroGEF, a flow-based generative model for single-step retrosynthesis. Starting from the target molecule, it constructs possible reactants by adding atoms and changing bonds in the molecular graph. RetroGEF models molecular transformations and changes in graph size within the same generative process, rather than relying on a fixed-size graph canvas. It learns this process directly from product–reactant pairs without requiring a prescribed edit order. Experiments on representative retrosynthesis
benchmarks demonstrate that RetroGEF achieves state-of-the-art performance.
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All authors Xiaozhuang Song, Xuemin Chen, Xinjian Zhao, Yaoyao Xu, Tianshu Yu
Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.SD
2-Dimensional spectral gating for denoising bioacoustics recordings
Julien Boussard, Mélisande Teng, Sulagna Saha et al. (+1 more)
Isolating vocalizations from noise in bioacoustics recordings is a prerequisite to many ecological analyses, including species identification, animal communication understanding, and individual or population-level variability studies. However, when recordings are acquired in open environments, vocalizations, noise, or signal-to-noise ratio can vary widely across individuals, species, environment, and recording conditions, making it hard to develop robust and generalizable methods for ecological analyses. To account for these challenges, noise reduction techniques are used to remove noise before downstream analyses. Popular methods such as Noisereduce rely on spectral gating, which estimates a noise threshold for each frequency channel. We propose a further improvement to Noisereduce, leveraging the fact that most animal sounds have structure across multiple frequencies. We apply our method on bird and marine mammals recordings and show that our extension of Noisereduce leads to improved denoising in both above and under water acoustic recordings, without impacting speed of preprocessing.
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All authors Julien Boussard, Mélisande Teng, Sulagna Saha, Mario Gallego-Abenza
Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI
OmniVCBench: Benchmarking Evidence-Grounded Multimodal Reasoning Towards AI Virtual Cells
Manyu Li, Xunkai Li, Yongfu Xiong et al. (+3 more)
Artificial Intelligence Virtual
Cells (AIVCs) are envisioned as scientific
agents that simulate cellular responses, explain underlying mechanisms, and support hypothesis-driven discovery. Existing AIVC
benchmarks, however, operate primarily at the simulation layer, motivating complementary evaluation of how models interpret experimental evidence and formulate biological hypotheses. We introduce OmniVCBench, a figure-centric, source-traceable
benchmark for the interpretation component of an AIVC. It contains 6,077 curated single- and multi-subfigure question–answer pairs derived from figures and experimental contexts in the scientific literature. Guided by Bloom's taxonomy, we instantiate interpretation-layer counterparts of the AIVC Predict–Explain–Discover agenda through three scientific
reasoning tasks. We further introduce AIVC-Judge, a task-conditioned MLLM-as-a-judge framework with category-specific, reference-aware rubrics for evaluating open-ended responses. A complementary Model-Derived Hard-Negative Mining (MDHNM) strategy converts plausible errors observed during model inference into MCQ distractors for lower-cost evaluation. Within the evaluated heterogeneous model pool, MCQ accuracy correlates positively with AIVC-Judge scores, providing a complementary view of performance alongside open-response evaluation. Code and data demo are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OmniVCBench.
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All authors Manyu Li, Xunkai Li, Yongfu Xiong, Yi Liu, Rong-Hua Li, Guoren Wang
Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Benchmarking graph-based models for in-silico toxicity prediction in drug discovery
Noel Suarez-Barro, Manuel Lama and Juan C. Vidal
Drug discovery is a costly and high-risk process, where toxicity-related failures remain a major cause of attrition in both preclinical and clinical stages. As a result, accurate early prediction of chemical toxicity is essential to reduce downstream costs and improve compound prioritization. In this context, graph deep learning (GDL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for toxicity prediction, leveraging molecular graph representations to learn directly from chemical structure with improved expressivity over traditional approaches. Despite the growing number of proposed models, current literature-based comparisons are often difficult to interpret due to inconsistencies in
datasets, preprocessing pipelines, and evaluation protocols. To address this limitation, we introduce a unified and standardized benchmarking framework for GDL-based toxicity prediction. We systematically evaluate more than 20 representative approaches under consistent experimental conditions and across multiple
datasets and partitioning strategies, enabling a fair and reproducible comparison of model performance. In addition, we complement this empirical study with a structured literature analysis to contextualize existing methodological trends and performance claims. Our results provide a clearer and more reliable assessment of the current state of the field, highlighting both the strengths and limitations of existing graph-based approaches. To support transparency and reproducibility, we release our benchmarking framework as open-source software https://gitlab.citius.gal/noel.suarez/benchtox, allowing the community to evaluate and compare models under consistent conditions.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from q-bio.BM
How 'Foundational' Are Current Molecular Foundation Models?
Francesca Grisoni
Large-scale models have permeated the molecular sciences, yet what makes a model 'foundational' in this domain remains poorly defined. This paper proposes three testable criteria for assessing the foundational nature of molecular models: (i) generality across molecular entities, properties, and tasks; (ii) transferability to new applications with no or minimal task-specific retraining; and (iii) generalization beyond the training distribution. Applying these criteria to the state of the art reveals promising progress, particularly visible in biomolecular structure prediction and machine-learned interatomic potentials, although none of the approaches examined fully satisfies all three. Success is concentrated in domains where target properties are consistently defined and training data are abundant, with low label noise relative to physically meaningful variation. More broadly, progress in the molecular sciences appears to depend less on model scale alone than on the quality and structure of available data, as well as the incorporation of prior knowledge into models, prediction tasks, or downstream applications. This work shifts the notion of a molecular foundation model from a descriptive label to a testable hypothesis, offering a framework for assessing current models and guiding future developments.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI
AssayRouter: Historical Utility Priors for Frozen Molecular Predictor Routing
Dong Xu, Zhangfan Yang, Jiantao Wu et al. (+5 more)
Laboratories often face a new molecular assay with 16-64 labels and a bank of predictors whose training data and parameters are unavailable. The practical question is which frozen outputs to include in a small local model. AssayRouter treats completed assays as pseudo-targets and labels each candidate by its post-fit utility: the reduction in held-out discovery loss when the candidate is added to the local target predictor. A shared regressor learns to predict this utility from candidate behavior on the support set, without source identity; on a new assay, one frozen ranking selects four sources and separate labels fit a convex combiner. We train only on completed ChEMBL-MT assays and evaluate 24 external regression assays across six frozen interface families. AssayRouter-C lowers strict four-call negative log-likelihood (NLL) by 0.0409 relative to Support-CV@4. Frozen candidate-label permutations confirm that candidate-utility correspondence carries the transferred information, and leave-one-interface-out training shows that the mapping generalizes to unseen predictor families. Completed assays therefore provide transferable supervision for scarce-label routing through frozen prediction interfaces.
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All authors Dong Xu, Zhangfan Yang, Jiantao Wu, Shipeng Zhang, Zexuan Zhu, Jiangqiang Li, Jun Zhang, Junkai Ji
Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Scalable Diffusion SBI for Compositional Inference under Simulator Misspecification
Vincent D. Zaballa and Elliot E. Hui
Simulation-based inference is challenging when many heterogeneous observations must be composed, hierarchical latent structure must be preserved, and the simulator is misspecified relative to observed data. We develop sampling and fine-tuning methods for
diffusion-based inference in design-conditional settings, where the same simulator is queried across different experimental conditions $\xi$. We extend compositional score-based inference with a continuous-time
diffusion coefficient that accounts for the number of observations, avoiding Jacobian and auxiliary-covariance corrections. We introduce Hierarchical Blockwise
Diffusion Sampling (HBDS), which infers shared parameters and group-specific latent states using a single pretrained model, with the hierarchy specified only at sampling time. Together, these methods support variable observation sets and groupings without retraining. To address misspecification, we introduce path-regularized fine-tuning that adapts the learned likelihood to observations and transfers corrections to posterior inference. Using Girsanov's
theorem, we quantify path divergence between pretrained and fine-tuned models across experimental designs and interpret it alongside predictive errors to distinguish candidate misspecification correction from unnecessary adaptation. We evaluate compositional sampling on exact-score Gaussian and Simple Likelihood, Complex Posterior
benchmarks, HBDS with analytic and learned scores on a controlled hierarchical model, and fine-tuning and localization on a separate analytic model with known design-dependent discrepancy. Finally, we apply the framework to 940 measurements across four
cell lines in a mechanistic Bone Morphogenetic
Protein signaling model, where fine-tuning improves posterior-predictive accuracy relative to the pretrained model and shifts posterior marginals toward the least-squares reference while retaining spread.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.GR
Volcanite: Commodity-Hardware Segmentation Volume Visualization for Connectomics and Beyond
Max Piochowiak, Reiner Dolp, Julian Herold et al. (+3 more)
Modern imaging produces terabyte-scale segmentation volumes, assigning each voxel an object label. These categorical, boundary-sensitive and label-rich data underpin connectomics and other imaging-driven fields, yet their scale often forces interpretation through slices, approximate meshes or distributed workflows that obscure spatial context and voxel-level defects. Here we show that such volumes can be explored directly on commodity hardware with Volcanite, an open-source framework for dense-segmentation rendering. Combining compression-aware data handling, a Vulkan GPU backend and segmentation-specific rendering, Volcanite enables low-latency exploration without meshing or distributed infrastructure, including for unpublished, sensitive or proprietary data. Across multi-domain
datasets, it preserves voxel labels, adds shadows and global illumination, and renders up to half a trillion voxels at 100 frames per second. By replacing lengthy preprocessing with direct inspection, Volcanite decouples hypothesis generation from data preparation and turns teravoxel label fields into interactive evidence for discovery, validation and cross-domain spatial analysis
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All authors Max Piochowiak, Reiner Dolp, Julian Herold, Eric Behle, Carsten Dachsbacher, Alexander Schug