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Quantitative Biology Quantitative Methods

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Wednesday 30 September

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Analysis of Quantized and Efficiently Adapted Protein Language Models

Background: Protein language models (PLMs) are increasingly used for sequence generation and property prediction, but their size makes fine-tuning and deployment expensive. The effects of quantization and parameter efficient fine-tuning on performance, representations and generation remain insufficiently characterized. Results: We evaluated 4-bit quantization and low-rank adapter fine-tuning (QLoRA) across ESM-2, ESMC, ProtBERT, ProtT5, Ankh, Ankh3 and Profluent-E1. Across protein prediction tasks, many model-task pairs retained more than 90% of full fine-tuning performance. Peak GPU memory savings approached 90% for the largest models, although performance and efficiency varied by model, dataset and training configuration. QLoRA often preserved early-layer representations while inducing task-specific adaptations in middle and late layers, resembling full fine-tuning with smaller representational changes. Training speed and power effects were more varied. For unconditional generation with ProLLaMA, ProtGPT2, ProGen2, ProteinGLM and ESM3, 4-bit quantization largely preserved predicted structural and sequence-level properties, but token-level analysis revealed model-dependent shifts in autoregressive output distributions. Conclusion: QLoRA and 4-bit quantization reduce PLM computational requirements, particularly GPU memory usage. Our results support QLoRA as a first-pass strategy for memory limited adaptation, reserving full fine-tuning for challenging tasks, unstable architectures or low validation recovery. For generative PLMs, sequence-level and structural metrics should be complemented with distributional analysis, since downstream predictions alone may miss quantization-induced shifts. These approaches can broaden access to large-scale protein modelling while requiring model- and task-specific validation.
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All authors Ilan Yaniv Zeisler, Sebastian Clancy, Pouriya Bayat, Saaim Raad, Ivan Kraskov, Matthew Xie, Vivian White, Spencer Perkins, Serena Singh, Sepehr Bayat, Keith Pardee

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from eess.IV

CPathOGen: Spatially and Morphologically Controlled H&E Counterfactuals for Probing Pathology Models

Computational pathology models infer biologically and clinically meaningful outcomes from histology, but their predictions are shaped by complex, intertwined tissue signals whose roles are important to understand. Common pixel- and feature-space perturbations can produce implausible tissue, making model responses difficult to interpret. We introduce CPathOGen, a conditional latent-diffusion framework for generating paired H&E counterfactuals with explicit controls over cellular spatial organization, nuclear morphology, and stain appearance. Cellular maps condition spatial structure through a spatial encoder, while a morphology/appearance vector modulates denoising through blockwise feature-wise linear modulation (FiLM). On held-out H&E tiles, CPathOGen generates visually plausible tissue with improved distributional agreement after spatially guided selection, as reflected by lower Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) and Kernel Inception Distance (KID); generated cells track requested abundance and position, and measured morphology and color vary monotonically with their controls. We use these verified interventions to probe pathology encoders with endpoint heads, task-specific classifiers, and survival models. Responses are quantified using total variation distance and prediction-flip rate. We further introduce the Biology-Nuisance Sensitivity Ratio, a metric that contrasts model sensitivity to biologically motivated morphology and spatial factors with sensitivity to non-biological, stain-related nuisance variation. CPathOGen provides a practical, fidelity-audited framework for evaluating robustness and controlled feature sensitivity in computational pathology model. \href{https://github.com/a12dongithub/PathOGen}{GitHub} and \href{https://huggingface.co/a12donhf/CPathOGen}{Hugging~Face}.
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Quantitative Methods

Covariance Eigenspace Provides Latent Attribution of Longitudinal Effects in Brain Age Gap

Brain age gap is a promising machine learning (ML)-driven bio\-marker of accelerated biological aging and is derived from neuroimaging data. Recent works on coVariance neural networks (VNN) for brain age gap prediction have provided an explainable and anatomically verifiable framework for brain age gap prediction. Notably, VNN outcomes are derived by filtering inputs along covariance eigenvectors, providing a mechanism for explaining their decisions in terms of latent (orthogonal) vectors. In this paper, we investigate the longitudinal brain age gap effects in a Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) cohort using a VNN-driven brain age gap prediction framework. Specifically, using Integrated Gradients (IG) as the attribution mechanism, our results demonstrate that the eigenspectrum of the anatomical covariance matrix explains the different longitudinal effects observed in brain age gap in amyloid positive vs amyloid negative subcohorts more prominently than individual brain regions ($83.2\%$ with the leading eigenvector versus a maximal value of $7.7\%$ for any brain region). Therefore, the covariance-based latent explanation identifies a key coordinated input pattern that carries most of the observed longitudinal effect in brain age gap.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from q-bio.GN

MerKurio: sequence extraction and annotation based on matching k-mers

K-mers, short subsequences of length k, play an important role in computational analyses using biological sequence data. A critical downstream processing step involves getting back to the source sequences of selected k-mers for further analysis or validation. Here, we present MerKurio, a high-performance command line tool written in Rust with two main functionalities: 1) extracting sequence records from FASTA/FASTQ files using k-mers and 2) annotating or filtering aligned sequences in SAM/BAM files with k-mer tags. The tool automatically selects the pattern matching algorithm via empirically derived rules based on query characteristics and supports paired-end reads, compressed input files, and reverse complement searching. Benchmark comparisons demonstrate that MerKurio outperforms existing tools in terms of speed while providing additional utility including detailed matching statistics and comprehensive file format support. MerKurio is a fast and user-friendly tool for sequence record extraction and tagging of aligned sequences based on k-mers. MerKurio is freely available at https://github.com/lschoenm/MerKurio.
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Tuesday 29 September

Quantitative Methods

Disease-level drug approval forecasting from trial-agnostic public data

Drug development is an expensive and lengthy process requiring developers to select drugs for human trials and diseases to target. Computational tools that can estimate before testing which drug-disease candidates are most likely to reach FDA approval could reduce development time and costs through early program advancement and disease prioritization. Yet existing approaches predict outcomes at a single level or stage or do not distinguish between disease outcomes for the same drug. We ask (1) whether FDA approval can be forecast for a drug-disease pair using only pre-clinical trial information, and (2) whether these forecasts can help prioritize diseases for the same drug. We built a cohort of 14,134 drug-disease pairs by reconstructing programs from ClinicalTrials.gov, extracting disease-level approvals from FDA label documentation, and enriching each pair with molecular, disease, ADMET, target, and pathway features. We divided the cohort into pre- and post-2019 programs and trained a classifier on pre-2019 data to predict FDA approval. On the post-2019 cohort (2,637 programs), the model would have prioritized a program that ultimately gained approval over one that did not approximately three out of four times. For drugs tested across multiple diseases, selecting the model's highest-ranked disease would have identified an ultimately approved disease 61.3% of the time, compared with 40.7% under random selection. These results show that public pre-trial information contains signal for forecasting FDA approval at the drug-disease level and can help prioritize diseases for the same drug. We provide a public web tool for SMILES- and ICD-10-based drug-disease approval forecasting.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG

RetroGEF: Dynamic Graph Edit Flow for Single-Step Retrosynthesis

Retrosynthesis enables the discovery of viable synthetic routes to target molecules. It plays a central role in modern drug discovery and materials design. Retrosynthesis involves molecular graph transformations that can change both connectivity and graph size. These transformations may introduce reactant components absent from the target while revising the product-derived structure. To model these transformations, we propose RetroGEF, a flow-based generative model for single-step retrosynthesis. Starting from the target molecule, it constructs possible reactants by adding atoms and changing bonds in the molecular graph. RetroGEF models molecular transformations and changes in graph size within the same generative process, rather than relying on a fixed-size graph canvas. It learns this process directly from product–reactant pairs without requiring a prescribed edit order. Experiments on representative retrosynthesis benchmarks demonstrate that RetroGEF achieves state-of-the-art performance.
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All authors Xiaozhuang Song, Xuemin Chen, Xinjian Zhao, Yaoyao Xu, Tianshu Yu

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.SD

2-Dimensional spectral gating for denoising bioacoustics recordings

Isolating vocalizations from noise in bioacoustics recordings is a prerequisite to many ecological analyses, including species identification, animal communication understanding, and individual or population-level variability studies. However, when recordings are acquired in open environments, vocalizations, noise, or signal-to-noise ratio can vary widely across individuals, species, environment, and recording conditions, making it hard to develop robust and generalizable methods for ecological analyses. To account for these challenges, noise reduction techniques are used to remove noise before downstream analyses. Popular methods such as Noisereduce rely on spectral gating, which estimates a noise threshold for each frequency channel. We propose a further improvement to Noisereduce, leveraging the fact that most animal sounds have structure across multiple frequencies. We apply our method on bird and marine mammals recordings and show that our extension of Noisereduce leads to improved denoising in both above and under water acoustic recordings, without impacting speed of preprocessing.
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All authors Julien Boussard, Mélisande Teng, Sulagna Saha, Mario Gallego-Abenza

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI

OmniVCBench: Benchmarking Evidence-Grounded Multimodal Reasoning Towards AI Virtual Cells

Artificial Intelligence Virtual Cells (AIVCs) are envisioned as scientific agents that simulate cellular responses, explain underlying mechanisms, and support hypothesis-driven discovery. Existing AIVC benchmarks, however, operate primarily at the simulation layer, motivating complementary evaluation of how models interpret experimental evidence and formulate biological hypotheses. We introduce OmniVCBench, a figure-centric, source-traceable benchmark for the interpretation component of an AIVC. It contains 6,077 curated single- and multi-subfigure question–answer pairs derived from figures and experimental contexts in the scientific literature. Guided by Bloom's taxonomy, we instantiate interpretation-layer counterparts of the AIVC Predict–Explain–Discover agenda through three scientific reasoning tasks. We further introduce AIVC-Judge, a task-conditioned MLLM-as-a-judge framework with category-specific, reference-aware rubrics for evaluating open-ended responses. A complementary Model-Derived Hard-Negative Mining (MDHNM) strategy converts plausible errors observed during model inference into MCQ distractors for lower-cost evaluation. Within the evaluated heterogeneous model pool, MCQ accuracy correlates positively with AIVC-Judge scores, providing a complementary view of performance alongside open-response evaluation. Code and data demo are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OmniVCBench.
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All authors Manyu Li, Xunkai Li, Yongfu Xiong, Yi Liu, Rong-Hua Li, Guoren Wang

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Benchmarking graph-based models for in-silico toxicity prediction in drug discovery

Drug discovery is a costly and high-risk process, where toxicity-related failures remain a major cause of attrition in both preclinical and clinical stages. As a result, accurate early prediction of chemical toxicity is essential to reduce downstream costs and improve compound prioritization. In this context, graph deep learning (GDL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for toxicity prediction, leveraging molecular graph representations to learn directly from chemical structure with improved expressivity over traditional approaches. Despite the growing number of proposed models, current literature-based comparisons are often difficult to interpret due to inconsistencies in datasets, preprocessing pipelines, and evaluation protocols. To address this limitation, we introduce a unified and standardized benchmarking framework for GDL-based toxicity prediction. We systematically evaluate more than 20 representative approaches under consistent experimental conditions and across multiple datasets and partitioning strategies, enabling a fair and reproducible comparison of model performance. In addition, we complement this empirical study with a structured literature analysis to contextualize existing methodological trends and performance claims. Our results provide a clearer and more reliable assessment of the current state of the field, highlighting both the strengths and limitations of existing graph-based approaches. To support transparency and reproducibility, we release our benchmarking framework as open-source software https://gitlab.citius.gal/noel.suarez/benchtox, allowing the community to evaluate and compare models under consistent conditions.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from q-bio.BM

How 'Foundational' Are Current Molecular Foundation Models?

Large-scale models have permeated the molecular sciences, yet what makes a model 'foundational' in this domain remains poorly defined. This paper proposes three testable criteria for assessing the foundational nature of molecular models: (i) generality across molecular entities, properties, and tasks; (ii) transferability to new applications with no or minimal task-specific retraining; and (iii) generalization beyond the training distribution. Applying these criteria to the state of the art reveals promising progress, particularly visible in biomolecular structure prediction and machine-learned interatomic potentials, although none of the approaches examined fully satisfies all three. Success is concentrated in domains where target properties are consistently defined and training data are abundant, with low label noise relative to physically meaningful variation. More broadly, progress in the molecular sciences appears to depend less on model scale alone than on the quality and structure of available data, as well as the incorporation of prior knowledge into models, prediction tasks, or downstream applications. This work shifts the notion of a molecular foundation model from a descriptive label to a testable hypothesis, offering a framework for assessing current models and guiding future developments.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI

AssayRouter: Historical Utility Priors for Frozen Molecular Predictor Routing

Laboratories often face a new molecular assay with 16-64 labels and a bank of predictors whose training data and parameters are unavailable. The practical question is which frozen outputs to include in a small local model. AssayRouter treats completed assays as pseudo-targets and labels each candidate by its post-fit utility: the reduction in held-out discovery loss when the candidate is added to the local target predictor. A shared regressor learns to predict this utility from candidate behavior on the support set, without source identity; on a new assay, one frozen ranking selects four sources and separate labels fit a convex combiner. We train only on completed ChEMBL-MT assays and evaluate 24 external regression assays across six frozen interface families. AssayRouter-C lowers strict four-call negative log-likelihood (NLL) by 0.0409 relative to Support-CV@4. Frozen candidate-label permutations confirm that candidate-utility correspondence carries the transferred information, and leave-one-interface-out training shows that the mapping generalizes to unseen predictor families. Completed assays therefore provide transferable supervision for scarce-label routing through frozen prediction interfaces.
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All authors Dong Xu, Zhangfan Yang, Jiantao Wu, Shipeng Zhang, Zexuan Zhu, Jiangqiang Li, Jun Zhang, Junkai Ji

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Scalable Diffusion SBI for Compositional Inference under Simulator Misspecification

Simulation-based inference is challenging when many heterogeneous observations must be composed, hierarchical latent structure must be preserved, and the simulator is misspecified relative to observed data. We develop sampling and fine-tuning methods for diffusion-based inference in design-conditional settings, where the same simulator is queried across different experimental conditions $\xi$. We extend compositional score-based inference with a continuous-time diffusion coefficient that accounts for the number of observations, avoiding Jacobian and auxiliary-covariance corrections. We introduce Hierarchical Blockwise Diffusion Sampling (HBDS), which infers shared parameters and group-specific latent states using a single pretrained model, with the hierarchy specified only at sampling time. Together, these methods support variable observation sets and groupings without retraining. To address misspecification, we introduce path-regularized fine-tuning that adapts the learned likelihood to observations and transfers corrections to posterior inference. Using Girsanov's theorem, we quantify path divergence between pretrained and fine-tuned models across experimental designs and interpret it alongside predictive errors to distinguish candidate misspecification correction from unnecessary adaptation. We evaluate compositional sampling on exact-score Gaussian and Simple Likelihood, Complex Posterior benchmarks, HBDS with analytic and learned scores on a controlled hierarchical model, and fine-tuning and localization on a separate analytic model with known design-dependent discrepancy. Finally, we apply the framework to 940 measurements across four cell lines in a mechanistic Bone Morphogenetic Protein signaling model, where fine-tuning improves posterior-predictive accuracy relative to the pretrained model and shifts posterior marginals toward the least-squares reference while retaining spread.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.GR

Volcanite: Commodity-Hardware Segmentation Volume Visualization for Connectomics and Beyond

Modern imaging produces terabyte-scale segmentation volumes, assigning each voxel an object label. These categorical, boundary-sensitive and label-rich data underpin connectomics and other imaging-driven fields, yet their scale often forces interpretation through slices, approximate meshes or distributed workflows that obscure spatial context and voxel-level defects. Here we show that such volumes can be explored directly on commodity hardware with Volcanite, an open-source framework for dense-segmentation rendering. Combining compression-aware data handling, a Vulkan GPU backend and segmentation-specific rendering, Volcanite enables low-latency exploration without meshing or distributed infrastructure, including for unpublished, sensitive or proprietary data. Across multi-domain datasets, it preserves voxel labels, adds shadows and global illumination, and renders up to half a trillion voxels at 100 frames per second. By replacing lengthy preprocessing with direct inspection, Volcanite decouples hypothesis generation from data preparation and turns teravoxel label fields into interactive evidence for discovery, validation and cross-domain spatial analysis
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All authors Max Piochowiak, Reiner Dolp, Julian Herold, Eric Behle, Carsten Dachsbacher, Alexander Schug

Monday 28 September

Quantitative Methods

Gel-Confined Rolling-Circle Amplification Enables Sensitive Single-Cell Proteoform Analysis

Protein abundance alone does not capture the molecular diversity generated by protein processing and post-translational modification, yet most single-cell protein assays do not resolve these proteoform states. Here, we develop RCAmp-scWB, a post-separation amplification strategy that performs rolling-circle amplification directly within the polyacrylamide gel after single-cell protein electrophoresis. Reaction-transport modeling identifies a balance between reagent access and confinement of the template-associated amplification product that supports signal amplification while retaining the electrophoretically encoded spatial readout. Using purified protein standards, RCAmp-scWB produced a 4.0-7.8-fold steeper concentration-response slope than conventional single-cell western blotting. Across six human cancer cell lines, RCAmp-scWB quantified protein abundance and resolved distinct Vimentin and PD-L1 proteoform states whose relative abundance and single-cell distributions were not captured by total protein measurements alone. Extension to individual small extracellular vesicles further revealed source-dependent shifts in Vimentin proteoform composition despite comparatively similar abundance of one major Vimentin species. By separating electrophoretic molecular discrimination from signal amplification, RCAmp-scWB enables proteoform-resolved analysis of heterogeneous cells and small extracellular vesicles.
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All authors Luyao Zhao, Yanjun Yang, Yaochao Zheng, Yuhao Zhang, Zhengfu Huang, William Teng, Lucas Yatcyshyn, Jiahwei Cheong, Jonathan Arnold, Jin Xie, Kenan Song, Xianqiao Wang, Yiping Zhao, Xianyan Chen, Yao Yao, Leidong Mao, Yang Liu

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Mirror-Score: Calibrated, Inference-only Scoring Exposes the Limits of Sequence-compatibility Ranking in D-peptide Design

D-peptides combine protease resistance with high target specificity, but computational design of D-peptide binders remains immature. Mirror-Peptidizer introduced an in silico mirror-image screening pipeline using target reflection, backbone generation, and ProteinMPNN sequence design, but its raw ProteinMPNN negative log-likelihood (NLL) ranking was not validated against measured affinities, and only 4 of 9 tested MDM2 designs bound detectably. We introduce Mirror-Score, a calibrated, inference-only scoring framework for heterochiral D-peptide/L-protein complexes, and a public benchmark of 31 crystal complexes across four target families, including 18 with literature-verified affinities. Raw ProteinMPNN NLL is not a valid affinity ranker: its pooled Spearman correlation with affinity is 0.19, and correlations reverse between MDM2/CHIP (+0.62) and gp41 (-0.70). We therefore evaluate Boltz-2 mirror-space cofolding confidence. For the complete viral-entry family (7 structures representing 3 peptides), interface predicted local distance difference test (pLDDT) achieves structure-level leave-one-out Spearman rho = 0.90 (p = 0.006) and correctly orders all three peptides by affinity, whereas NLL fails (structure-level rho = 0.18). Because only three independent chemotypes are represented, this result indicates directional consistency rather than a statistically validated predictor. Cross-family calibration does not transfer at current sample sizes, supporting family-matched calibration as the practical deployment mode. We also specify a prospective design protocol for the antimicrobial-resistance targets LasR and LecB from Pseudomonas aeruginosa, including mirrored structures, ligand-derived hotspot maps, diffusion-model-ready inputs, and Mirror-Score ranking. Code, benchmark data, structures, and analysis scripts are openly available at https://github.com/Jiadalee/Mirror-Score.
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Quantitative Methods

An integrated geometric quantification and shape analysis framework for axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients

Quantitative characterization of lymph node morphology is important for assessing axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer. However, surfaces reconstructed from computed tomography (CT) segmentation may contain geometric and topological defects that compromise subsequent analysis, while conventional shape descriptors predominantly characterize global morphology. To address these issues, we developed an integrated framework combining topology-aware surface processing with multi-resolution spherical harmonic (SH) analysis of CT-derived axillary lymph nodes. The processing pipeline produced topology-valid genus-0 surfaces with improved mesh quality, which were then represented at multiple SH degrees and characterized using 20 predefined geometric feature families. Geometric fidelity increased with SH degree, whereas predictive performance peaked at intermediate resolutions. Preferred SH degree also differed across feature families. A family-specific mixed-resolution model achieved an AUC of 0.918, compared with 0.884 for the conventional PyRadiomics Shape14 baseline, corresponding to an improvement of 0.0344. Controlled perturbation experiments showed that higher SH degrees transmitted more fine-scale geometric variation and yielded lower stability of curvature-based predictions. Representative geometric descriptors provided interpretable characterization of metastasis-associated surface morphology. Independent validation further supported the framework's transportability: label-free replication in a multicenter lymph node cohort reproduced the family-specific resolution effects, while a labeled LIDC-IDRI lung-nodule experiment reproduced the resolution-dependent relationship between SH degree and predictive performance. Altogether, the framework provides a topology-valid basis for quantitative characterization of lymph node morphology and metastasis-associated imaging phenotypes.
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Quantitative Methods

Uncertainty Quantification in Cardiac Model Personalisation from Ultrafast Ultrasound

Cardiac model personalisation requires inferring mechanical parameters that are not directly measurable in vivo. Ultrafast ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) enables non-invasive tracking of myocardial stiffness dynamics over the cardiac cycle, providing a target for personalisation. However, mapping these observations to subject specific model parameters remains ill-posed, as multiple parameter sets can reproduce the same stiffness dynamics. We formulate SWE-informed personalisation as a statistical inference problem using simulation-based inference (SBI). Using a subject-adapted 0D cardiovascular model and neural posterior estimation, we estimate model-conditional posterior distributions over active stiffness scale k0, contraction rate kATP, and relaxation rate kSR, conditioned on SWE-derived curve features and subject specific context. Among six healthy volunteers, four passed objective prior-support diagnostics and were retained for quantitative posterior analysis. Curve-level RMSE against the observed SWE target decreased from 12.61 $\pm$ 5.55 kPa for the prior predictive median to 1.14 $\pm$ 0.38 kPa for the posterior predictive median, an 89.7 $\pm$ 4.2% reduction. Posterior analysis revealed parameter-specific uncertainty, k0-kATP compensation, weaker constraint of kSR, and the importance of prior-predictive diagnostics for assessing whether each subject is represented within the modelled SWE feature space. These results support SBI for uncertainty aware SWE-based personalisation, while identifying prior support and forward-model adequacy as key diagnostics.
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All authors Camilla Ferrario, Maelys Venet, Olivier Villemain, Maxime Sermesant

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI

DoAtlas-2: A Foundation for Self-Evolving Causal Biomedical Discovery

We introduce DoAtlas-2, a foundation for self-evolving causal biomedical discovery that organizes knowledge around causal mechanisms and advances through external evidence from human populations. DoAtlas-2 integrates 771 research resources covering more than 720,000 participants in 48 countries, from longitudinal clinical phenotypes, medical imaging, and continuous physiological signals to eight molecular layers, together with an evidence network of approximately 4.7 million literature-derived records over 93,566 concepts and 149,383 candidate causal relations. DoAtlas-2 autonomously formulates research questions from evidence gaps and unresolved mechanisms, prespecifies their causal designs, and generates validated analyses. Supporting, challenging, and unresolved results continuously revise mechanistic interpretations, the causal evidence state, and the discovery frontier, so that DoAtlas-2 self-evolves within a closed loop of hypothesis generation, empirical testing, and renewed discovery. DoAtlas-2 has systematically evaluated 2,031 research questions. In the Human Phenotype Project (HPP), it formulated 4,014 candidate pathway questions across vascular, early-glycemic, and hepatic-metabolic systems, and screening of the first 1,079 yielded statistical support for 756. Representative studies identify blood pressure as a convergence node linking adiposity, hepatic, and lipid phenotypes to vascular outcomes, and show that an adiposity-inflammation-blood-pressure pathway is largely attenuated by joint adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and smoking. The discovered vascular network constitutes a completely interpretable predictive foundation, admitting exact attribution of every prediction and closed-form mediation effects. DoAtlas-2 thereby unifies causal mechanism discovery, population-evidence testing, and interpretable prediction within one continuously evolving foundation.
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All authors Yulong Li, Rong Xia, Yuxuan Zhang, Jianxu Chen, Xiwei Liu, Haochen Xue, Maosheng Li, Yuhang Liu, Yibo Yuan, Yutong Xie, Chong Li, Jionglong Su, Hagai Rossman, Eran Segal, Imran Razzak

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI

A General Harness for Protein Foundation Model Fitness Prediction

Accurate fitness prediction is central to protein engineering and understanding sequence-function relationships. With advances in deep learning, protein foundation models (PFMs) have become widely used for this task. Recent analyses, however, show that these models share preferences reflecting their training corpora, while unreliable inputs can further distort fitness predictions. Family-specific evolutionary evidence and structural context can help address these limitations by providing complementary constraints on model scores, motivating VenusREM-Harness (VRH), a general, model-agnostic, training-free Retrieval-Enhanced Mutation harness. It fuses frozen model scores with multiple sequence alignment (MSA) evidence according to model uncertainty, then applies gated background correction and score shrinkage based on structural confidence and solvent exposure. Across 1,211 assays and 3.1 million measured variants from ProteinGym, VenusMutHub, and the newly curated viral benchmark VenusViroHub, all 71 configurations improve Spearman correlation on all 3 benchmarks by 0.073 on average, with broad gains across 5 metrics. Extended analyses relate retrieval gains to model-MSA preference differences, assess domain-level gains and immune-escape cases, and quantify computational speedups. Built with VRH, VenusREM2 is the first to rank highest in all function, taxon, MSA-depth, and mutation-depth categories, with a ProteinGym Average Spearman of 0.556, 0.038 above the prior best.
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All authors Yang Tan, Qijia Tian, Gangyu Sun, Bozitao Zhong, Mingchen Li, Yuanxi Yu, Nanqing Dong, Liang Hong

Sunday 27 September

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Robust Biomolecular Complex Design Across Protein Conformational Landscapes

Proteins populate conformational ensembles, yet structure-based biomolecular design typically optimizes candidates against a single target conformation. Consequently, a candidate that fits one state can lose favorable interactions or develop steric clashes when the target adopts another. We introduce FlexEvo, a model-agnostic evolutionary framework that adapts candidates once at inference time from a single target conformation to improve compatibility with alternative natural conformations unseen during adaptation, without retraining the source model or requiring a conformational ensemble. FlexEvo casts cross-state adaptation as geometry-constrained bi-objective optimization, balancing preservation of input-state interactions against robustness to plausible conformational perturbations. To limit the search space and reduce invalid structural edits, geometry-derived FlexBoxes define protected anchor regions, adaptable regions for local exploration, and forbidden regions for clash avoidance. A unified all-atom representation supports topology-preserving adaptation across diverse binder categories, while Pareto selection preserves nondominated candidates across the two objectives. We evaluate FlexEvo across multiple generation baselines and nine representative binder categories spanning diverse molecular sizes and structural topologies. FlexEvo reduces the category-balanced mean relative performance degradation from 47.8% to 4.4%, while adding only 1.4–3.1 minutes of adaptation per sample. These results establish single-state inference-time adaptation as a practical route toward robust biomolecular complex design across protein conformational landscapes.
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All authors Qingyuan Zeng, Zongqi Xu, Anglin Liu, Ziqi Gong, Pengxiang Cai, Zixin Guan, Yunan Chen, Sen Gao, Min Zhou, Jintai Chen

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cs.LG

KoopCell: Koopman-Based Generative Model for Learning Single-Cell Dynamics from Distribution Snapshots

Learning population dynamics from temporally sparse, unpaired distribution snapshots is a fundamental challenge in developmental biology. Recent approaches based on neural differential equations and flow matching can interpolate between observed population snapshots, but may struggle to extrapolate beyond the training horizon and often lack an explicit mechanism for modeling developmental branching. We propose KoopCell, a unified generative framework based on Koopman-Mori-Zwanzig theory that jointly learns representations and predictive linear latent dynamics. Theoretically, using the weak continuity equation, we derive a closed-form least-squares estimator for the Koopman generator from distribution snapshots and establish convergence guarantees under suitable assumptions. To model branching dynamics, we further develop KoopCell-M, which incorporates non-Markovian memory into the latent Koopman dynamics through a Markovian embedding. Experiments on synthetic systems and three scRNA-seq datasets demonstrate the ability of our framework to recover Koopman spectra, model branching through memory, and scale to predicting high-dimensional gene expression distributions, achieving state-of-the-art performance among the evaluated methods.
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All authors Wanfeng Lu, Yutong Zhang, Keyi Zhou, Chenxin Ge, Wei Lin, Qunxi Zhu

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from q-bio.NC

Pre-registered spectral and certified mixing analysis of the male Drosophila central nervous system connectome

We report a pre-registered test of five hypotheses about the synapse-flow random walk on the connectome of the male Drosophila central nervous system (166,700 neurons, 124 million synapses), in which a walker moves to a postsynaptic partner in proportion to synapse number. The hypotheses concern the spectral gap and its dependence on the neck connective, the localisation of the leading modes of an input-normalised signed map, the certified mixing depth measured by the Dobrushin coefficient, its robustness to per-synapse detection confidence, and the dependence of the signed spectrum on the neurotransmitter sign convention. After public registration and a code freeze, each was tested once. Two held: the two-neuron photoreceptor modes that lead the signed spectrum are an artefact of normalising by very small inputs, removed by an input floor at the median, and they do not depend on the sign convention. Three failed: at a threshold of five synapses per connection the spectral gap is an order of magnitude smaller than predicted ($|\lambda_2| = 0.9965$) and the chain is certifiably far from mixed after 128 steps, and at no confidence level tested was the mixing depth certifiably robust. Exploratory analyses trace the slow mode to eleven neurons of the cord, seven of them mesothoracic efferent neurons, that become nearly closed once weak connections are dropped, find a similar boundary set in the lamina of the FlyWire female brain, show that null models preserving cell-type wiring reproduce the slow modes, and show that exact chains built from the confidence data change the depth profile after 32 steps by at most 0.017 at the pre-registered confidence level, far less than the worst-case certificate allows. Random-walk summaries of connectomes are dominated by nearly closed sets at the edges of the reconstruction unless these are treated explicitly.
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Saturday 26 September

Quantitative Methods

Discovery of Bioresorbable Polymer Suture Coatings for Controlled Tissue Regeneration with Multimodal Foundation Models

Therapeutic sutures can localize bioactive payloads to wounds, but burst release and insufficient coating durability can compromise regeneration and increase infection risk. In this work, we introduce a data-driven discovery strategy for bioresorbable polymer suture coatings that improve therapeutic retention and release kinetics. We develop GenPoly, an end-to-end multimodal generative framework that learns a shared polymer representation over paired polymer string sequences and molecular graphs via contrastive alignment, and couples this representation to property prediction, synthetic accessibility filtering, and motif-based candidate clustering to discover coating families beyond commonly used linear aliphatic polyesters. Starting from a clinically prevalent baseline, GenPoly identifies candidate coatings and selects representative polymers for experimental evaluation on nanoparticle-loaded sutures with recombinant human EGF to an in vitro human keratinocyte wound model. A discovered polymer coating of the LA-TMC family shows improved payload retention and sustained release, exhibiting a $3.3\times$ increase in rhEGF concentration, accompanied by more localized Ki-67-positive keratinocyte proliferation at the wound bed, in comparison with the current state-of-the-art candidates. These findings suggest new opportunities in AI-driven polymer discovery, and highlight the viability of GenPoly in engineering bioresorbable coatings for suture-based therapeutic delivery in targeted tissue regeneration.
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Quantitative Methods

Structured Population Models for Follicular Development

Ovarian follicle development has been modeled either by compartmental models, where developmental stages are represented by discrete compartments, or by physiologically structured population models (PSPMs), formulated as transport PDEs describing follicles along a continuous maturation variable. Compartmental models reproduce full-cycle hormonal and follicular dynamics but cannot describe cellular features. PSPMs capture multiscale behavior, yet lack a direct link to compartmental descriptions, making hormonal feedback difficult to incorporate. Here, we introduce a class of ODE systems derived as finite-dimensional reductions of PSPMs via a perturbative moment closure. These systems provide backbone approximations of the structured dynamics, retaining key nonlinear mechanisms governing recruitment, selection for dominance, and atresia while projecting maturation onto macroscopic variables. Zero- and first-order moments, derived from phenomenological assumptions regarding follicular maturation, allow us to realistically model follicle sizes and blood estradiol concentrations over one follicular wave. This application is supported by bovine data and likely generalizable to other mammalian species.
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Friday 25 September

Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from cond-mat.stat-mech

Slow-fast dynamics of the McKean model with stochastic resetting and diffusion

In this paper we investigate the combined effects of stochastic resetting and diffusion on a slow–fast dynamical system given by the piecewise-linear McKean model. That is, the fast variable $v$ is subject to Gaussian white noise with effective diffusivity $D$ and is reset to a fixed value $v_r$ at a random sequence of times generated from a Poisson process with rate $r$. Assuming that resetting occurs on the fast timescale, we freeze the slow variable \(w\) under an adiabatic approximation and determine the resulting non-equilibrium stationary state (NESS) of the fast variable as the solution of a modified Fokker–Planck equation. We show that the NESS can be expressed in terms of parabolic cylinder functions, whose asymptotic behavior allows us to recover the corresponding NESS without diffusion in the small-diffusion limit. The NESS is used to derive an averaged equation for the slow dynamics, whose solution converges to a stable fixed point \(w^*\) that depends on \(D\), \(r\) and \(v_r\). This fixed point effectively determines the long-time behaviour of the full system. Finally, we analyze the regime in which resetting occurs on the same timescale as the slow variable. We show how the slow variable now undergoes noisy oscillations due to resetting-induced switching between branches of the fast nullcline and derive the corresponding NESS for $w$ in the non-diffusive case.
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Quantitative Methods

Predicting Mutational Signature Exposures from H&E Whole Slide Images: A Pan-Cancer Feasibility Study

Mutational signatures reveal cancer-driving processes with clinical relevance: MMR-deficient tumors respond better to immunotherapy, HRD tumors are sensitive to PARP inhibitors, and POLE-mutant tumors often have high mutation burdens influencing treatment response. Yet signature profiling remains limited by the cost, complexity, and turnaround time of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) or whole-exome sequencing. Histopathology is widely available and cost-effective, and H&E morphology has been linked to MSI, HRD, POLE-related processes, and driver mutations. Whether histology can recover the broader landscape of mutational signature exposures in a pan-cancer setting remains unknown. Here we introduce Hist2Sig, a deep learning framework predicting exposures to 30 COSMIC SBS signatures from H&E-stained slides. Trained on matched WGS and histology data from 7,063 TCGA patients across 29 cancer types, Hist2Sig was compared with a tumor type-only baseline to separate morphology-derived signal from tissue-of-origin priors. In internal cross-validation, it recovered relative signature compositions across most tumor types and achieved higher mean top-three overlap than the baseline in 19 of 29, with the largest gains in COAD, PRAD, GBM, and UCEC. It also recurrently recovered signatures of poorly characterized etiology, including SBS8, SBS12, SBS39, and SBS40a. In an external CPTAC cohort of 193 patients across five tumor types, Hist2Sig retained moderate concordance with observed compositions and outperformed the baseline in glioblastoma and pancreatic adenocarcinoma. These results support the feasibility of inferring mutational signature exposures from routine histology, while highlighting variation across tumor types. Hist2Sig provides a foundation for tumor-specific models that could complement sequencing in pre-sequencing triage or support decisions where WGS is unavailable.
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All authors Flavio Sartori, Cesare Rollo, Isabella Caranzano, Tiziana Sanavia, Piero Fariselli, Corrado Pancotti

Thursday 24 September

Quantitative Methods

Parameter identifiability of a neuroendocrine-inflammatory model across experimental designs

Mathematical modeling helps us identify and investigate complex mechanisms of function. This is especially useful for understanding inflammation, which is a complex, multiscale process that interacts nonlinearly with other physiological systems. The full potential of these models can only be realized when combined with experimental data through parameter estimation. However, uniquely determining model parameters requires that they are practically identifiable, which can be assessed by multiple, possibly inconsistent, methods. Identifiability can also vary with experimental designs and observation operators. This study investigates this issue by assessing parameter identifiability in a coupled model of the neuroendocrine-inflammatory system. We compare three workflows following a global sensitivity analysis: Fisher-information matrix based identifiability, global optimization with frequentist confidence intervals, and the profile-likelihood. We compare results across six observation operators with and without measurement noise, all of which are experimentally feasible given prior literature. Our results show that Fisher-information-based methods typically lead to larger sets of identifiable parameters while profile-likelihood analyses lead to a smaller number of identifiable parameters. This suggests that, while computationally expensive, the profile-likelihood is necessary for accurately assessing identifiability, and must be recalculated when the experimental design is altered.
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Quantitative Methods · Cross-listed from q-bio.PE

Mathematical Modelling of Within-Host HIV Dynamics with Cytotoxic Immune Response and Antiretroviral Therapy

We develop and analyse a mechanistic ODE model of within-host HIV dynamics that includes uninfected CD4$^+$ T cells, latently and productively infected cells, free virions, and cytotoxic immune effectors. Antiretroviral therapy is described by two time-dependent efficacy functions that separately reduce new infections and virion production. We show that solutions remain non-negative and bounded, identify the infection-free and endemic equilibria, and derive the basic reproduction number together with the local stability condition for the infection-free state. We also obtain treatment-dependent suppression thresholds and an analytical estimate of when this threshold is crossed as treatment efficacy declines. Numerical simulations consider untreated infection, ART initiation, periodic variation in efficacy, and progressive loss of treatment effect. Without therapy, the model approaches a state of persistent infection. ART reduces viral load and promotes recovery of the CD4$^+$ T-cell population, while the latent reservoir persists under the parameter set considered. Periodic changes in treatment efficacy produce sustained forced oscillations. These results connect the analytical threshold conditions with the treatment-dependent dynamics of the model and provide a basis for future calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and extensions informed by clinical data.
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Quantitative Methods

PRAXIS-VirtualCell: A Programmable and Trustworthy Framework for Agentic Virtual Cell Experiments

Virtual cells are evolving from single-task predictive models toward programmable biological simulation systems, yet heterogeneous data, models, and validation evidence still lack a unified organizational framework. Here, we present PRAXIS-VirtualCell, a modular framework that organizes biological data, predictive models, perturbations, adapters, execution environments, and validation evidence to enable reproducible and auditable virtual experiments. The system supports cross-species tasks spanning Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and human K562 cells, while using biological contracts and evidence-aware execution to distinguish supported predictions from extrapolation and abstention. By further integrating agentic orchestration, PRAXIS-VirtualCell automatically translates natural-language questions into traceable virtual experiments, providing a unified runtime foundation for trustworthy and scalable Virtual Cell systems.
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Quantitative Methods

ProteoEM: probabilistic protein abundance estimation from iterative affinity traces

Single-molecule affinity mapping enables measurement of individual proteins and proteoforms, but imperfect and nonspecific probe binding means that affinity traces may be compatible with multiple proteoforms. Accurate abundance estimation therefore requires probabilistically weighting ambiguous traces rather than assigning each trace to a single candidate. We developed ProteoEM, an expectation-maximization framework for weighted proteoform quantification, inspired by transcript abundance estimation methods for RNA-seq and released as an open-source Python package. ProteoEM evaluates each observed affinity trace against all candidate proteoforms using fixed, pre-calibrated probe-response rates that are separate from abundance estimation. It estimates the abundance of each proteoform and reports proteoforms that the probes cannot tell apart as a single group. Because some proteoforms are observed more readily than others, ProteoEM also corrects for these observation yields to estimate the composition of the source sample. We show that grouping traces that carry the same evidence into equivalence classes reduces the EM's work sevenfold without changing the estimates. In simulations, ProteoEM recovered the true molecular composition, whereas approaches that reduced each affinity trace to a hard yes/no call introduced substantial errors. Performance was robust to moderate, uniform calibration error but was biased by informative missing data and by proteoforms absent from the reference set. When observation yields were known, ProteoEM also recovered source-sample composition from observed molecular counts. ProteoEM is an open-source, reproducible framework for quantitative analysis of single-molecule affinity measurements and provides a basis for validation using experimental molecule-level data.
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