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Physics Nonlinear Sciences Chaotic Dynamics

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Monday 5 October

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Classical chaotic signatures in Krylov space

In recent years, Krylov space approaches have emerged as a useful framework for characterizing dynamical chaos in a wide variety of physical systems. However, the connection between Krylov dynamics and the established structures of classical chaos remains largely unexplored. Classical chaos is characterized by exponential stretching and mixing. For quantum maps with a classical limit, we show that these two signatures are encoded in different structures within Krylov space: stretching is encoded in the geometry of the Krylov operators as determined by the Lyapunov exponent, while mixing manifests itself as an exponential decay of the Arnoldi sequences in agreement with the Ruelle-Pollicott resonances.
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Chaotic Dynamics

Adiabatic confinement and escape in an open billiard

We introduce a stationary, field-free billiard that reproduces the adiabatic confinement mechanism of a magnetic mirror through boundary geometry alone. Rapid transverse reflections generate an approximately conserved action that plays the role of the magnetic moment, producing an effective longitudinal barrier and a nominal loss cone for escape. For the half-width profile considered here, confinement is controlled by a competition between mirror strength and adiabaticity: shortening the profile increases the mirror ratio but also reduces the accuracy of the adiabatic approximation. As a result, the escaping fraction is nonmonotonic and confinement is strongest at an intermediate profile length. We characterize the associated phase-space structure, escape-time statistics, and escape basins, revealing long-lived transient motion and a strong sensitivity of the final escape direction to the initial condition that persists as the uncertainty in the initial condition is reduced.
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All authors Matheus Rolim Sales, Leonardo Costa de Souza, Ricardo Luiz Viana, Edson Denis Leonel, Iberê Luiz Caldas

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Kardar-Parisi-Zhang superdiffusion in chaotic quantum circuits

We construct a family of chaotic brickwork quantum circuits exhibiting superdiffusive transport with dynamical exponent $z=3/2$ in the full Kardar–Parisi–Zhang (KPZ) universality class. This is enabled by the equilibrium current associated with a inhomogeneous conserved density having a nontrivial dependence on the chemical potential. Using nonlinear fluctuating hydrodynamics, we derive the propagation velocity, broadening scale, and universal scaling form of the charge correlation function from microscopic equilibrium properties. Tensor-network simulations of a two-site spin-$1$ (qutrit) circuit reproduce these parameter-free predictions, including the full stationary KPZ profile. We further construct a three-site spin-$\frac12$ (qubit) circuit, where transport varies from diffusive to superdiffusive with the chemical potential, while long-lived coherent quasiparticles delay the convergence of the profile to the KPZ scaling form. Our results establish that KPZ superdiffusion in quantum systems is not restricted to fine-tuned integrable models.
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All authors Rustem Sharipov, Urban Duh, Sun Woo P. Kim, Friedrich Hübner

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from math.DS

A Response Theory Probe for Learned Stochastic AI Simulators, Tested on Lorenz-63

Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifies that an emulator responds correctly to forcing, the property that projection and attribution studies rely on. Linear response theory makes this testable: the forced response follows from unperturbed correlations through a generalized fluctuation-dissipation relation, and decomposes over the stochastic Ruelle-Pollicott resonances of the Koopman generator. Building on the Koopmanism Response framework, we turn this into a calibrated, mode-resolved test for learned surrogates: each surrogate rollout passes or fails each check, and failure rates are compared with those of independent realizations of the true system. On stochastic Lorenz-63, a three-variable toy model, we evaluate SINDy, an MLP, a reservoir computer, a neural ODE and a neural SDE with learned diffusion, over up to 80 rollouts each. A sparse-regression model with the correct library passes every check at rates consistent with the true system. Invariant-statistics fidelity and response fidelity dissociate in both directions: a quarter of reservoir-computer rollouts pass every invariant-statistics check and match the static susceptibility $\chi(0)$, yet misrepresent the slow relaxation modes, while the neural ODE and SDE rarely meet the invariant-statistics floor but recover those modes in three quarters of rollouts. As expected of a time-integrated quantity dominated here by fast relaxation, $\chi(0)$ does not separate these cases. For a fixed network, the training formulation (one-step drift, flow map, or multi-step through the integrator) decides which of these properties it gets right.
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All authors João Böger, Simon Driscoll, Niccolò Zagli, Valerio Lucarini, Francisco Camara Pereira

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Parameter Estimation in Machining Dynamics with Regenerative Delay and Nonsmooth Friction using Physics-Informed Neural Networks

A multi-domain eXtended Physics-Informed Neural Network (XPINN) framework is developed for nonsmooth Delay Differential Equations (DDEs). This is the first implementation to demonstrate the efficacy of partitioning the temporal domain into subdomains of integer multiples of the characteristic time delay and progressively training the associated subnetworks while freezing previously learned parameters. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated using a machining dynamics model that incorporates both regenerative and nonsmooth frictional effects. Results demonstrate that the proposed multi-domain XPINN framework leads to better solution reconstruction in DDEs and improved parameter estimation compared to a generic PINN (SPINN) formulation. The proposed method works particularly well for extended temporal domains and non-constant history functions. The robustness of inverse XPINN (I-XPINN) is also assessed using reference data contaminated with Gaussian measurement noise. Results indicate that I-XPINN remains resilient to measurement noise and the physics-informed constraints guide the network toward accurately recovering the underlying dynamics. This demonstrates, for the first time, the potential of the proposed framework for reliable parameter identification in DDEs characterised by nonsmoothness and large time delays.
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Chaotic Dynamics

A Renormalization-Group Hierarchy of Stochastic Effective Dynamics Learned through Path Integrals

This study combines a stochastic renormalization group (RG) in space with a path-integral description of the time evolution, giving a spatial hierarchy of coarse-grained dynamics together with the distribution over spatiotemporal paths. The RG is defined as a diffusion process that applies scale-dependent Laplacian damping together with additive Gaussian noise. The time evolution at each spatial scale is formulated as an Onsager–Machlup action, with a drift (i.e., the predictor) and white noise whose amplitude is fixed by the RG. The predictor of these dynamics is optimized by minimizing the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the path distributions from the RG and from the path-integral description. The optimal predictor contains the score function that connects the spatial scales, so the predictor and the score are two aspects of the same multiscale path formulation. The formulation unifies simulation using the predictor, unconditional generation using the score, and super-resolution using both. The predictor has no closed form, so it is computed by a neural network in two realizations that differ only in how the score is computed. The first realization obtains the score by automatic differentiation of the path distribution, remaining faithful to that formulation. The second obtains the score as an additional network output trained by denoising, at a lower computational cost. These two realizations are validated through numerical experiments on two representative multiscale systems, the Kolmogorov flow and the two-timescale Lorenz-96 model.
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Saturday 3 October

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Do Neural PDE Solvers Learn the Right Dynamics?

Neural PDE solvers can achieve low prediction errors, but do they reproduce the dynamics of the systems they model? Prediction scores alone offer an incomplete answer: they measure agreement with reference solutions but provide limited insight into how errors accumulate, nearby states diverge, or extreme events arise. We propose an evaluation framework that directly examines these behaviors in deterministic and stochastic neural solvers. By evolving ensembles of nearby initial states and comparing them with direct numerical simulation, we assess three complementary aspects of learned dynamics: error formation, ensemble geometry, and extreme events. Experiments on two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow reveal limitations that conventional scores can obscure. Smaller trajectory errors can reflect weaker error amplification despite less accurate local updates. Models can match an ensemble's overall spread and effective dimension while failing to capture the spatial directions where nearby states diverge. Similarly, matching overall event frequencies can conceal failures to predict persistent extreme events. These findings show that improved prediction accuracy does not necessarily imply greater dynamical fidelity. Our framework makes this distinction measurable, providing concrete criteria for evaluating whether advances in neural PDE solvers better capture the underlying dynamics.
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All authors Haonan Li, Yue Song, Bin Yang, Kaihong Luo

Chaotic Dynamics

ETM-3D: A One-Parameter Multistable Quadratic Flow with an Explicit Absorbing Set and Intermittent Chaos

We study a one-parameter three-dimensional quadratic flow, denoted ETM-3D, on the benchmark domain $\rho\geq0$. Its homogeneous quadratic triad preserves Euclidean quadratic energy, while the full vector field has constant divergence -8. A shifted quadratic Lyapunov function yields an explicit positively invariant absorbing set and therefore global ultimate boundedness. The equilibria reduce generically to a scalar quartic, with a separate singular case at $\rho=\sqrt{5}$. Continuation reveals two saddle-node bifurcations, a generic transcritical bifurcation, a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, and a fold of limit cycles. Stable and unstable period-one branches meet at the fold with their nontrivial Floquet multipliers approaching +1. Just beyond this point, a 25-point logarithmic parameter study gives a laminar-length scaling exponent of -0.551 (95% confidence interval [-0.621,-0.481]), consistent with type-I intermittency. At larger $\rho$, a chaotic attractor coexists with an asymptotically stable equilibrium and periodic windows occur. Structural invariants are used to distinguish the flow from several classical quadratic chaotic families.
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Chaotic Dynamics

Influence of astrocyte feedback and noise on breathing neural clusters

Astrocytes are increasingly recognized as active regulators of neural dynamics, yet their role in large-scale synchronization remains incompletely understood. Building on the discovery of breathing cluster synchronization in neuron-astrocyte networks, we investigate whether this phenomenon persists under more biologically realistic conditions by incorporating thermosensitive neuronal dynamics, intrinsic electric-field interactions, stochastic perturbations, and delayed astrocytic feedback. Through systematic numerical simulations of a network containing structurally symmetric neuronal subsets, we show that breathing clusters characterized by intermittent alternations between synchronized and desynchronized states, remain robust across a broad range of biophysical conditions. The results reveal a non-monotonic dependence on astrocytic attenuation and feedback parameters, with intermediate values maximizing rhythmic switching through a slow push-pull regulatory mechanism. Temperature and electric-field effects primarily modulate neuronal excitability and the tolerance of the breathing state to noise, while elevated stochastic perturbations progressively destabilize cluster coherence. In contrast, the phenomenon exhibits remarkable robustness to biologically realistic astrocytic delays. Importantly, our findings indicate that the emergence of breathing synchronization remains fundamentally governed by the interplay between network symmetry and astrocyte-mediated feedback, whereas temperature, electric fields, and noise act as modulators of its stability and temporal organization. These results establish breathing cluster synchronization as a robust organizing principle of astrocyte-regulated networks and provide a quantitative framework for understanding how glial regulation shapes cortical state-switching under realistic physiological conditions.
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Friday 2 October

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Physics is the Best Teacher: Consistency Learning for Time-Invariant Operators of Chaotic Dynamics

Accelerating the prediction of long-term behavior in chaotic systems is crucial in scientific computing. However, existing methods rely on numerical solvers or autoregressive models that advance one small step at a time, which makes long horizons expensive. We instead view this problem as learning the system's time-invariant evolution operator, which jumps the state across a large time span in a single evaluation. To this end, we derive the consistency equations a time-invariant operator must satisfy, with differential and compositional objectives in physical time. These equations also connect the learned operator to the physics-prescribed instant dynamics, enabling physics embedding in consistency learning. Across five chaotic systems, we find that physics-distilled consistency makes both short-term trajectories and long-term statistics more accurate. The learned operator survives temporal extrapolation and requires one-tenth as many evaluations as autoregressive rollout, offering an efficient route to long-term simulation of chaotic dynamics.
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All authors Lufang Chiang, Jiachen Yao, Thomas Y.L. Lin, Anima Anandkumar

Chaotic Dynamics

Chaotic Griffiths phase in neuron map networks

Griffiths phases provide a mechanism for sustaining critical dynamics over extended parameter regions without fine-tuning to an isolated transition point. This behavior has been mainly associated with structural heterogeneity in complex networks. Here we show that quenched heterogeneity in local parameters can generate a chaotic Griffiths phase in a network of map-based neurons. We study globally coupled Chialvo maps with quenched disorder in a local neuronal parameter, thereby isolating intrinsic parameter disorder from topological disorder. As the coupling strength is varied, a chaotic Griffiths phase emerges between desynchronized and coherent chaotic dynamics, characterized by intermittent formation and breakup of neuronal clusters and large fluctuations in the fraction of clustered neurons. Within this regime, cluster sizes exhibit power-law distributions with coupling-dependent exponents, providing evidence of critical behavior over a finite parameter interval. The chaotic Griffiths phase is absent in the homogeneous limit and broadens progressively as the degree of parameter heterogeneity increases. We further introduce topological disorder through small-world connectivity and find that its combined action with local parameter heterogeneity substantially extends the chaotic Griffiths phase. In both globally coupled and small-world networks, the number of positive Lyapunov exponents displays anomalous scaling with system size. These results demonstrate that intrinsic dynamical heterogeneity constitutes an independent mechanism for generating chaotic Griffiths phases and that its interplay with structural disorder enhances extended criticality in neuronal networks.
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Chaotic Dynamics

An Arrow of Time in Stable Autonomous Generation

Does stable autonomous generation select a direction of time? This question matters both for learning models that autonomously generate prescribed dynamics and for designing controllers that make an invariant set attracting without changing its dynamics. Periodic motion and quasiperiodic torus rotations admit stable generation in either direction. For a chaotic attractor, however, reversing the equations reproduces its backward trajectories while turning attraction into repulsion. Can additional latent variables or autonomous feedback restore attraction without changing the reversed motion? We prove an obstruction to such exact generation by finite-dimensional autonomous systems with $C^2$ vector fields, compact attracting sets, and continuous readouts. The result applies to the classical Lorenz attractor and, more generally, to dynamics with an ergodic invariant measure of positive metric entropy whose intrinsic local stable fibers are totally disconnected on a set of positive measure. The proof connects this geometry to an entropy contradiction: a hypothetical attracting realization would force the output entropy to vanish, contrary to the prescribed chaotic dynamics. We use reservoir-computing examples to illustrate the difficulty of stable autonomous generation for time-reversed chaos: both time directions are closely tracked while the networks are driven by data, but only the forward example retains Lorenz geometry during autonomous generation. The theorem identifies a class of dynamics that cannot be learned for exact, stable autonomous generation by finite-dimensional smooth models satisfying the stated assumptions, regardless of the learning procedure or the number of latent variables.
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Thursday 1 October

Chaotic Dynamics

Multistability in the Duffing–Holmes oscillator: basins of antiperiodic, periodic, and chaotic attractors and their relative volumes

The periodically driven Duffing–Holmes oscillator is strongly multistable: for the same forcing amplitude and frequency, periodic, chaotic, and antiperiodic attractors coexist, each with its own basin of attraction. Antiperiodic orbits are periodic orbits invariant under a shift of half a driving period combined with a sign reversal of the coordinates, a symmetry of the equations of motion. Guided by a continuation map of the parameter plane, which locates the regimes but is blind to their coexistence, we explore the space of initial conditions along two one-parameter cuts, at fixed forcing frequency and at fixed forcing amplitude. Stochastic sampling of the full space yields an unbiased estimate of the relative volume of each basin as a function of the control parameter, on the same parameter grids on which single-trajectory bifurcation diagrams are computed by continuation. Basin maps on two-dimensional sections, complemented by maps of the order of the attractor reached from each initial condition, resolve the geometry of the coexisting basins where the competition between attractors is strongest. The relative volumes reveal windows of global antiperiodic dominance, in which the antiperiodic orbit attracts essentially every initial condition, separated by narrow intervals in which two or three qualitatively different attractors share the space in comparable proportions, as well as extended ranges of persistent coexistence; at large forcing amplitude, a single antiperiodic orbit of order one captures the whole space. Compared with the bifurcation diagrams, the abrupt changes of basin volume are the ensemble-level counterpart of the multistability-induced discontinuities of the sweeps, and the gradual shrinking of the antiperiodic basin explains why the branch followed by a sweep depends on the initial state and on the drive phase.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from math.DS

From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events

In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear systems. We highlight some of the challenges and opportunities of transforming estimates of a dynamics-based early warning system, based on trends in stability or resilience into forecasts with high skill. We highlight the importance of (a) quantifying consequences of possible actions in response to warnings that may be false negatives or positives (b) considering finite time horizon predictions to give verifiable predictions (c) assumptions necessary for valid extrapolations of trends. We evaluate approaches to improving the skill and utility of the forecast.
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All authors Franco Du Plessis, Victoria Volodina, Chris A. Boulton, Muhammed Fadera, Sneha Kachhara, Timothy M. Lenton, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Peter Ashwin

Chaotic Dynamics

Evidence for an Obstruction to Perturbative Renormalization Group in Stochastic Turbulence

We examine whether the perturbative renormalization group (RG) regime of stochastic turbulence can be continued from small $\varepsilon$ to the physical value $\varepsilon_{\mathrm{phys}}=2$, corresponding to large-scale forcing. Exploiting the simplifications of the large-$d$ limit, we calculate the correction exponent $\omega$ to five-loop order and find a simple structure suggesting a closed analytic form. This form implies that the fixed point stable near $\varepsilon=0$ ceases to be simultaneously real and infrared stable before reaching $\varepsilon_{\mathrm{phys}}=2$, pointing to a possible change of infrared regime rather than a controlled perturbative RG extrapolation.
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All authors L. Ts. Adzhemyan, D. A. Davletbaeva, D. A. Evdokimov, M. V. Kompaniets

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.LG

From Redundancy to Minimality: Fixed-Point-Guided Hierarchical Reduction of Learned Piecewise-Linear Dynamics

Understanding a nonlinear dynamical system from time series requires not only reproducing its trajectories, but also identifying a simple representation that preserves its essential dynamical structure. Almost-linear recurrent neural networks (AL-RNNs) are piecewise-linear RNNs in which only a subset of units use ReLU nonlinearities, so that nonlinear capacity is explicitly controlled by the number of ReLU units. Their activation patterns define linear regions, represented as symbols, whose observed transitions form a symbolic transition graph. However, directly training AL-RNNs with few ReLU units to realize minimal dynamical representations can be unreliable. We ask whether an AL-RNN with more ReLU units can instead be trained first and systematically reduced to a minimal dynamical representation. We introduce a fixed-point-guided hierarchical reduction procedure that progressively linearizes selected ReLU units, merging neighboring linear regions and graph nodes while preserving distinct symbols containing fixed points (FPs). The resulting reduction tree defines a hierarchy of progressively simpler candidates. Each reduced candidate is initialized from the parent parameters and retrained under guidance from the parent dynamics. We also prove that reproducing $Q$ distinct fixed points requires at least $Q$ FP-containing symbols, providing a certificate of symbol-level minimality when this bound is attained. On the 3-scroll Chua system, direct training with the theoretical minimum of three ReLU units achieves high-fidelity minimal realizations in only 20% of seeds, whereas our learn-reduce-retrain strategy increases the seed-macro success rate to approximately 71% at the same final nonlinear capacity. These results show that redundant nonlinear capacity can serve as a scaffold for discovering and realizing minimal dynamical representations.
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Chaotic Dynamics

The Effect of Gait Stability Based on Two Types of Impact Strategies for Two-Link Walking and Brachiating Robots

In this paper, we explore the impulsive dynamics common to single-joint, two-link models of walking and brachiating gaits with respect to slope and switching time. In particular, we investigate how the stability of a gait and bifurcations encountered within a family of gaits change under time-based and state-based switching of the impulsive dynamics.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.plasm-ph

Transport Impacts of Resonant Island Chains in Fusion Plasmas

Magnetic field-line transport in magnetically confined plasmas is commonly modeled as diffusion through stochastic magnetic layers generated by resonant perturbations. However, experimentally relevant magnetic configurations frequently exhibit transport rates that are substantially slower than predicted by fully stochastic models, indicating the presence of unresolved dynamical barriers. In this work, we investigate the role of nested resonant island chains and their associated invariant manifolds in regulating transport within the edge magnetic topology of DIII-D tokamak discharge #171491 subjected to strong n=3 resonant magnetic perturbations. Using field-line tracing, Poincare analysis, and manifold calculations, we identify a hierarchy of homoclinic and heteroclinic tangles associated with both period-one and period-ten hyperbolic points. A systematic construction based on primary intersection points is developed to extract partial transport barriers from the full manifold geometry and divide the chaotic region into dynamically distinct domains. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that field-line escape exhibits a bi-exponential character when only the outermost period-one boundary is considered, reflecting the presence of a long-lived "sticky" region associated with the period-ten island chain. When the inner period-ten boundary is explicitly incorporated into the Monte Carlo, the escape process becomes approximately single exponential and is accurately described by turnstile lobe transport. The measured escape rate agrees with predictions obtained from the turnstile lobe area and the symplectic structure of the field-line map. These results demonstrate that nested tangles provide a quantitative transport skeleton governing magnetic-field-line escape and establish a framework for analyzing transport barriers, cantori, and lobe dynamics in realistic fusion-plasma magnetic configurations.
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All authors Sidney D. V. Williams, Kevin Mitchell, Ethan Custodio, Dmitri M. Orlov

Wednesday 30 September

Chaotic Dynamics

Automated discovery of dimensional reductions in coupled oscillators

There have been persistent efforts to uncover low-dimensional macroscopic dynamics in large systems of interacting microscopic units, in which underlying physical principles govern their collapse onto low-dimensional manifolds. Here, focusing on interacting phase oscillator systems, we show that an unsupervised autoencoder framework can determine their intrinsic dimensionality, in agreement with the predictions of Watanabe-Strogatz theory. Systematic sweeps over the latent dimensions identify the analytically predicted reduced dimensions, while supervised regression confirms that the learned latent variables capture the full information contained in the theoretical Watanabe-Strogatz coordinates. We demonstrate this capability for two prototype systems: Kuramoto oscillators and resistively loaded Josephson junctions. We further establish the diagnostic specificity of the framework by showing that systems lacking such reducible dynamics do not exhibit a sharp dimensional reduction.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn

On the spectra of strong turbulence on water surfaces

Here, I give a brief history of the theory, with twists and turns, and list possible predictions for the spectra of the direct cascade of gravity waves on the water. The description of long waves is straightforward within the weak-turbulence theory developed by Zakharov and his school. As the energy cascade proceeds to shorter scales, the mean surface steepness grows, and wave-breaking events appear with increasing frequency. Considering surface cusps, Phillips suggested a wavenumber spectrum (with a wrong magnitude, as I argue here) and a frequency spectrum whose whole form is incorrect. The right form for the frequency spectral slope due to breaking waves was suggested by Kuznetsov. Here we estimate the magnitude and argue that the frequency spectrum is expected to continue unchanged through the whole cascade. The transition from weak to strong turbulence in the wavenumber and spatio-temporal spectra is due to spectrally nonlocal interactions and happens earlier (at larger scales) than the dimensional estimate suggests. As a result, the magnitude of the strong-turbulence spectrum is not universal but depends on the pumping for a sufficiently long weak-turbulence cascade. The reason for nonlocality is likely that breaking of shorter waves is determined by the magnitude of the longest wave on whose crest they are running.
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Chaotic Dynamics

Prediction Accuracy Can Select the Scaling Law of Required Precision

How much precision must be allocated, and to which uncertainty channels, to meet a prediction requirement? We formulate a minimum one-shot specification cost over initial state variables and persistent forcing parameters. The central result is that prediction accuracy can select the horizon-scaling law of this resource by activating different physical uncertainty channels. Within any common uniformly scale-separable regime with the same active channels, changing a fixed tolerance changes the required precision by only $\cO(1)$ bits. An exactly solvable multiscale toral system shows that one fixed dynamics and target can nevertheless switch from $B_N(\eps_c)=\Th(\log N)$ to $B_N(\eps_f)=\Th(N)$ when finer accuracy activates an expanding channel. A forced Lorenz–84 calculation then realizes the same channel-switching mechanism numerically over finite horizons in a single two-scale diagnostic field: a sampled post-transient eddy envelope supports a coarse branch controlled by the phase rate of a large-scale forcing, whereas finer accuracy activates exponentially sensitive atmospheric degrees of freedom and produces an approximately linear increase of the linearized one-shot cost over the resolved window. Thus accuracy can determine not only how much predictive precision is required, but which physical channel controls its growth with horizon.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn

A Reynolds-like Criterion for the Onset of Universal Active Turbulence

Beyond a critical Toner–Tu drive, bacterial turbulence exhibits universal statistics, including a parameter-independent energy spectrum $E(k)\sim k^{-3/2}$. We show that the same universal state can be reached not only by increasing activity, but also by strengthening nonlinear advection, weakening nonlinear saturation, or tuning the Swift–Hohenberg instability. Motivated by the competition between these processes, we identify the independent dimensionless groups governing the dynamics and construct a Reynolds-like control parameter from them. A single critical value, calibrated from the known activity-controlled transition, predicts the onset of universality along the other parameter routes and collapses them onto a common threshold. These results identify a dynamical organizing parameter for the onset of universal active turbulence and provide a Reynolds-like measure for the Toner–Tu–Swift–Hohenberg universality class.
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All authors Kunal Kumar, Sandip Sahoo, Kirti Kashyap, Amal Manoharan, Siddhartha Mukherjee, Anupam Gupta, Samriddhi Sankar Ray

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.LG

TopTimeNet: Topologically-assisted time-series classification model

Distinguishing periodic from chaotic dynamics in a time series is a fundamental challenge in both physics and engineering. Yet, end-to-end learned architectures must discover both a representation and a decision boundary from data, at substantial cost. We introduce TopTimeNet, which decouples these tasks: a fixed, non-learned stage extracts a $42$-dimensional geometric and topological descriptor from Takens delay embeddings and persistent homology, and a lightweight learnable stage performs classification. On a benchmark of $49$ nonlinear dynamical systems, a $1{,}638$-parameter configuration matches the mean accuracy of one with $33\times$ more trainable parameters. Additionally, this approach delivers mean accuracy comparable to convolutional neural networks and surpasses the average performance of converged Transformer models, while requiring three to four orders of magnitude fewer trainable parameters. Robustness also depends sharply on where noise is introduced: TopTimeNet degrades gracefully under perturbations to its precomputed features, but degrades sharply when noise is introduced into the raw signal and the full feature-extraction pipeline is recomputed, showing that robustness to perturbations of the precomputed features does not imply robustness of the complete raw-signal-to-prediction pipeline. These results show that decoupling fixed geometric and topological feature construction from a lightweight discriminative stage can achieve comparable classification accuracy with substantially fewer trainable parameters.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

Butterfly Effect Confirmed in Global AI Weather Models: Evidence from Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

A paradox recently emerged in artificial intelligence (AI) weather prediction research. While some claim AI weather models cannot simulate atmospheric butterfly effect, this conflicts with AI models' limited predictability and advances in AI ensemble forecasting. This study demonstrates via counterexamples that the butterfly effect does exist in AI weather predictions. For Super Typhoon Khanun, AI predictions are constrained by a double-attractor system. Minor initial perturbations confined to two regions trigger state transitions between two local attractors, causing a 1006-km difference in the predicted storm position on Day 7. This behavior is consistent with numerical weather prediction models and observed in ~12% of tropical cyclones in the past 5 years. These findings verify AI's ability to capture atmospheric chaos and provide the physical basis for AI ensemble forecasting.
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All authors Jeremy Cheuk-Hin Leung, Daosheng Xu, Weiye Yu, Shaojing Zhang, Xiaodong Zeng, Gaozhen Nie, Jie Feng, Jingchen Pu, Yi Li, Kaijun Ren, Qingcun Zeng, Banglin Zhang

Chaotic Dynamics

Improved Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent framework for Comprehensive Synchronization Analysis in Multilayer Networks

We propose an Improved version of the Lagrangian Finite Time Lyapunov Exponents(IFTLE) framework as a new quantifier for Comprehensive Synchronization analysis of multilayer networks undergo adaptive coupling scheme in order to incorporate the effects of deformation in synchrony due to the dynamic variations in the coupling strengths of intra-layer and inter-layer links. Theoretical formulation of the IFTLE along with its numerical validation has been provided using a three layer network of Chaotic Rössler oscillators. The numerical illustration clearly shows the efficacy of the proposed method revealing the need for comprehensive synchrony deformation analysis in adaptive coupling scenarios. Also we have stated a few properties of IFTLE useful for the quantification purpose.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Learning Chaos Without Seeing Chaos: Extrapolation of Global Dynamics in Autoregressive Transformers

Autoregressive models are trained to predict a system's behavior one step at a time, and recursive generation allows the learned dynamics to unfold over long horizons. To what extent can such dynamics learned from local observations recover broader organization of an underlying system that was only partially observed during training? Here we study small autoregressive transformers trained from scratch on trajectories sampled from restricted parameter regimes of several non-linear dynamical systems, including logistic and sine maps, the Lorenz system, and the generalized Hopf system, with control parameters and state trajectories represented as sequences of continuous tokens. Under closed-loop evaluation at parameters far outside the training distribution, the models can recover self-similar period-doubling cascades, chaotic dynamics, and attractor structures with remarkable visual and numerical fidelity. For the logistic map, a transformer reproduces successive period doublings up to period 128, yielding a finite-order scaling ratio of 4.6687, matching the Feigenbaum constant to within $5\times10^{-4}$. We further investigate how these structures emerge over the course of training, and reveal with causal interventions how control-parameter information is processed through attention into state prediction and shapes the resulting closed-loop dynamics. These results suggest that a surprisingly narrow window into a system's local behavior may suffice for autoregressive transformers to generalize to its unseen global dynamical organization.
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All authors Yilun Liu, Yi Zhang, Ganyu Wu, Sikuan Yan, Mengyue Wang, Alois Knoll, Volker Tresp, Yunpu Ma

Tuesday 29 September

Chaotic Dynamics

Initial-State Precision as a Predictive Resource: From Tori to Strange Nonchaotic Attractors and Chaos

How much initial-state precision is required to predict a nonlinear system to a prescribed accuracy over a finite horizon? We formulate this inverse prediction problem through a one-shot resource $B_N$, defined as the number of binary refinement bits required in the initial state by a specified local sensing architecture. Within a common scale-separable error-growth regime, changing a fixed tolerance changes $B_N$ only by an $N$-independent offset. An exactly solvable circle/Chebyshev map provides the chaotic calibration $B_N=N\log_2 m+O(1)$. We then apply the framework to the quasiperiodically forced logistic map under phase-only initial uncertainty. Over the resolved horizons, representative smooth-torus, strange-nonchaotic-attractor (SNA), and chaotic regimes exhibit a three-level precision-resource hierarchy: bounded, logarithmic-like, and linear-like growth, respectively. For the SNA, algebraic phase sensitivity $G_N^{\mathrm{op}}\sim N^\mu$ implies an admissible initial uncertainty of order $N^{-\mu}$, and therefore a precision cost proportional to $\log N$. Phase-grid refinement shows that the sampled worst-case maxima are numerically stable with increasing phase resolution. Near the torus–SNA fractalization point, derivative-based phase sensitivity can already grow while finite perturbations remain below a fixed operational tolerance for more than $10^6$ iterations, revealing exceptionally long activation horizons. Thus an SNA can occupy an intermediate finite-precision resource class between a smooth torus and ordinary chaos, while its operational manifestation can occur on a much longer timescale than its derivative-based sensitivity.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cond-mat.soft

Measures of Chaotic Advection in Simulations of Active Nematics

Active nematics are non-equilibrium fluids composed of rod-like self-propelled units that collectively generate large-scale coherent flows. Here, we focus on a canonical experimental system: an active nematic fluid in $2D$ driven by ATP, composed of densely packed, extended microtubule (MT) bundles cross-linked by kinesin motors. An intriguing feature of this system is the creation and annihilation of topological defects with topological charge $\pm1/2$, due to the fracturing of the material. Experiments confirm that the positive ($+1/2$) defects serve as "virtual stirring rods" that move around each other in a complex braiding pattern. This collective braiding motion of positive defects stretches and folds the fluid itself, i.e., produces macroscale chaotic advection. The degree of self-mixing due to the chaotic advection can be measured using topological entropy and the Lyapunov exponent. Our goal is to determine whether continuum models of MT-based active nematic fluid can reproduce these measurements. To this end, we use two continuum models: the traditional Beris-Edwards (BE) model and the more recently developed Beris-Edwards model with enhanced nematic locking (BENL). The difference between the two models is the adoption of the "nematic locking principle", which states that an individual MT bundle cannot rotate independently of its neighbors due to steric interactions among elongated dense MT bundles. This principle holds in the BENL model except in small localized areas of the material domain where the material fractures, specifically near the creation and annihilation of topological defects. We employ several numerical methods to estimate measures of chaotic advection using both models. Our study shows that the BENL model more accurately reproduces experimental measures of self-mixing driven by chaotic advection in MT-based active nematic fluids.
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All authors Md Mainul Hasan Sabbir, Brandon Klein, Daniel A. Beller, Kevin A. Mitchell

Chaotic Dynamics

Anomalous Behavior in Systems with Delay

In a recent letter [Phys. Rev. E 112, L042201 (2025)], we demonstrated the occurrence of anomalous diffusion, weak chaos, and weak ergodicity breaking in a certain class of time-delayed feedback systems with linear instantaneous and nonlinear delayed term. This anomalous behavior is caused by the trapping of chaotic solutions close to nonhyperbolic fixed-point solutions in function space. In this paper, we extend our previous study, present more detailed insights, and show surprising new results. We first investigate the case of a constant delay, where the dynamical behavior during such trapping events can be explained by center manifold theory. In the large-delay limit, the probability for the trapping events becomes small because of a high effective dimension of the chaotic phases. As a consequence, anomalous behavior is only observable on very large time scales. By introducing a periodic modulation of the delay time, trapping events become more probable with increasing modulation amplitude due to a reduction of the effective dimension and the occurrence of laminar chaos. For large values of the modulation amplitude, the anomalous behavior is more complex and the most relevant aspects can be reproduced by a two-dimensional iterated map and a stochastic model.
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All authors Tony Albers, David Müller-Bender, Lukas Hille, Martin Weigel

Monday 28 September

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.NE

Massively Parallel Reinforcement Learning with a Chaotic Reconfigurable Clockless Chip

Hardware accelerators based on physical dynamical systems offer an attractive route toward energy-efficient reinforcement learning applications. However, their scalability is challenging because it requires many statistically independent entropy sources. Here, we introduce a quasi-analog decision-making architecture based on asynchronous Boolean networks (or lattices) implemented on a clockless reconfigurable chip. Each node in the network consists of a single logic element that acts as an autonomous entropy source. This architecture gives rise to distributed Boolean chaos, in which a spatially coupled network generates parallel streams of chaotic Boolean transitions with very low statistical dependence between nodes. We experimentally demonstrate parallel decision-making on a 1024-armed bandit problem, which is beyond the scale of previous hardware implementations, while significantly improving power-law scaling performance. Separately, we scale the proposed entropy source to 5120 parallel channels, yielding an aggregate sample generation rate of 2.14 TS/s. Our solution is implemented on a commercial reconfigurable CMOS chip and offers high integration density and ease of programmability. Our results pave the way for using distributed Boolean chaos as a valuable hardware substrate for large-scale reinforcement learning and for the development of fully integrated, high-throughput decision-making accelerators.
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