Papers

We prove a filtration-level conversion from uniform fixed-time testing to all-sample one-sided error control and uniform future-tail control. Given an adapted deterministic binary test whose worst-case fixed-time error tends to zero, the construction selects update times with prescribed summable error budgets and holds each selected decision until the next update. For every prescribed significance level, the construction yields a test that controls Type I error at every sample size; from each update time onward, the probability of any subsequent error is bounded uniformly over each hypothesis class by the remaining budget. Hence the test is uniformly consistent and eventually correct almost surely under both hypotheses. Applying the conversion to finite-alphabet coordinate processes proves the first implication in Ryabko's Conjecture 5.2.

In his recent breakthrough work [JASA, 2021], Chatterjee proposed a rank-based correlation coefficient $\xi(X,Y)$ to measure the dependence of a random variable $Y$ on $X$. Unlike classical measures such as Pearson, Spearman, or Kendall, $\xi$ satisfies $\xi=0$ if and only if $X$ and $Y$ are independent, and $\xi=1$ if and only if $Y$ is a measurable function of $X$, without requiring monotonicity or linearity. This paper proposes a refined measure of $\xi(X,Y)$ and investigates its theoretical properties. We derive several equivalent representations, construct an estimator, and establish its strong consistency as well as its asymptotic distribution. A natural extension of the proposed framework is also presented. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed estimator outperforms Chatterjee's rank correlation in terms of finite-sample performance, particularly in controlling Type I error under the null.

In sampling problems, gradient-based schemes such as Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) mix faster than non-gradient-based methods, but their applicability is limited by access to the gradient of the target log-density. In practice, gradients are often unavailable and function evaluations are noisy, e.g., stochastic simulators or black-box simulators, so we propose LMC-SPSA with noise, which approximates the gradient of the target log-density using two noisy function evaluations per iteration. We prove, under noisy gradient estimates, that LMC-SPSA converges in distribution by proving the convergence in Wasserstein distance. Furthermore, we construct a diminishing step-size schedule that still drives the Wasserstein error bound to convergence, extending convergence guarantees beyond the constant-step setting. Further, we sharpen the dominant dimension dependence of the Wasserstein error from $O(p^4)$ to $O(p^2)$ (with $p$ denoting the dimension), and support this analysis with numerical results. We show that LMC-SPSA achieves $W_2$-accuracy $\varepsilon$ with total noisy-oracle complexity of $O(p/\varepsilon^2+\delta^2p^3/\varepsilon^3)$, where $\delta$ is the paired-noise level. This improves the noise-dependent accuracy scaling relative to the ZO-LMC method of Roy et al. We further establish asymptotically vanishing Wasserstein error as the number of iterations $\to\infty$ under diminishing step-size and perturbation sequences and derive an explicit convergence rate for a balanced schedule under noisy zeroth-order feedback. Empirical experiments are conducted to verify the performance of LMC-SPSA with noise. We provide an oracle-budget-matched comparison with the ZO-LMC method, showing smaller empirical sampling errors under the same function-evaluation budget.

We study the fundamental limits of convex-regularized estimation in high-dimensional linear regression with right-rotationally invariant design matrices. We show that the asymptotic risks of convex-penalized least squares estimators are lower bounded by the risk of an approximate message passing algorithm known as Bayes VAMP, and we further characterize when the lower bound is attainable. As a technical ingredient in the proof of our lower bound theorem, we characterize the asymptotic performance of the $\ell_2$-perturbed convex estimator for every fixed perturbation strength $\lambda>0$. This closes a gap in the literature, in which $\lambda$ was required to be sufficiently large or restrictions were imposed on the class of convex estimators. The benefit of our approach is that we can conduct a direct analysis of the spectrum's impact on the lower bound in the high-dimensional limit. In particular, we can show that the lower bound is monotone in an ordering on the limiting spectral distributions of the design matrix. These results isolate how the full singular-value distribution of the design—not merely the aspect ratio or average measurement strength—governs the limitations of convex regularization.

Comparisons between AutoML systems at short time budgets – tens of seconds rather than hours – are common in tool READMEs and workshop papers, and they are easy to get wrong. We report a case study in which a simple AutoML engine, Orcetra, appeared to beat FLAML and AutoGluon on 513 OpenML datasets, winning 57.1% of them at a nominal 60-second budget and 78.4% of datasets against FLAML alone at 30 seconds. Both margins came from protocol defects that a results table cannot show. The search loop scored every candidate on the test split and reported the best, making the headline metric a maximum over dozens of noisy estimates while the baselines selected on training data and touched the test set once; and the budget was checked before launching a candidate but never enforced during one, so the system consumed a median of 120 s against a 60-second budget, 2.24x the wall-clock AutoGluon used. Re-running with selection moved to a validation split, the deadline enforced externally and every framework pinned to an equal share of the machine, Orcetra's win rate on the re-run subset falls from 59.4% to 34.3% and no pairwise difference against either competitor remains significant. Recording both estimands inside a single search lets us attribute the collapse: the selection rule accounts for 4.8 percentage points and unequal compute for most of the rest. The same traces give the selection bias as a function of budget, measured rather than assumed: it grows with $K$ but reaches only 0.27 accuracy points, about five times below the $\sigma\sqrt{2\ln K}$ bound a marginal-standard-error argument predicts, because candidates scored on shared test rows cancel most of the noise. We close with a checklist for short-budget comparisons. Code, per-dataset results and the scripts that regenerate every number and figure in the paper are released with it.

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of the out-of-sample prediction risk of the high-dimensional ridgeless least-squares estimator when the feature dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ grow proportionally. We consider a generalized spiked population covariance model with multiple latent factors, where the number of spiked eigenvalues may remain finite or increase with $n$, and the spiked eigenvalues may be bounded or diverge at arbitrary rates. Beyond characterizing the impact of covariance spectra, we reveal a new mechanism underlying benign overfitting: the prediction behavior of ridgeless interpolation is fundamentally governed by the alignment between the regression coefficient $\boldsymbol\beta$ and the spiked eigenspaces of the population covariance matrix. In particular, we show that the signal energy distributed along latent spike directions determines whether interpolation leads to benign, tempered, or catastrophic overfitting. Our theoretical framework establishes sharp prediction risk limits under minimal moment conditions, requiring only finite fourth moments rather than Gaussianity. We characterize how the number, strength, and geometric structure of the spikes jointly influence the double-descent phenomenon. These results provide a unified understanding of when latent covariance structures facilitate or hinder generalization in overparameterized regression.

The goal of this paper is to model node heterogeneity and link homophily for dynamic networks. The proposed framework brings new insights on how networks evolve over time. It also provides more sophisticated tools for the prediction of future networks with statistical guarantees. The new model accounts for the link homophily associated with both observed traits and latent traits. The joint modeling of node heterogeneity and both observed and latent homophily effects also poses the significant challenge in statistical inference, resulted from the large number of confounding parameters in the model. To overcome this, we propose a novel normalized squared loss, paving the way for efficient and stable estimation of parameters in a high-dimensional setting. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the estimation method, and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive simulations and the illustration with some real-world network data.

We study Lambda-quantiles, a generalisation of classical quantiles in which the constant probability level $\lambda \in [0,1]$ is replaced by a functional parameter $\Lambda \colon \mathbb{R} \to [0,1]$. We consider the general case of non-monotone $\Lambda$, which arises naturally if closure properties of the class of corresponding Lambda-quantiles with respect to inf-aggregation or with respect to mixtures are required. As preliminary results, we characterise finiteness, constancy, and what we call the attainment property known from classical quantiles. We then consider the problem of reconstructing $\Lambda$ from the values of $\Lambda$-quantiles on a suitable family of simple distributions, showing its identifiability under mild assumptions. Next, we substantially refine several results obtained in the literature on weak upper and lower semicontinuity and on the property of convexity of the level sets with respect to mixtures, obtaining in both cases almost complete characterisations without any monotonicity assumption. We then move to the case in which $\Lambda$ has bounded variation, which enables us to prove a mixture representation result: any such $\Lambda$-quantile can be rewritten as a Lambda-quantile with an increasing functional parameter, evaluated at a mixture of the original distribution with a fixed reference distribution at a fixed weight, thus reducing the complexity of the parameter from bounded variation to monotone. Finally, we introduce and study the notion of the ordinal covariance group of a risk measure, showing that in the case of a $\Lambda$-quantile it coincides with the compositional invariance group of $\Lambda$ and with a certain group of measure-preserving transformations of the signed measure associated with $\Lambda$.

This paper introduces Mixtures of Geodesic Factor Analyzers (MGFA) on Riemannian homogeneous spaces. MGFA uses a geodesic factor model within each mixture component, providing greater expressiveness than mixtures of Riemannian radial distributions and enabling clustering of manifold-valued data with anisotropic subpopulations. We establish root-$n$ consistency for the MGFA maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), thereby filling a theoretical gap for mixtures of Riemannian radial distributions as a special case. We also propose an iterative estimation algorithm and implement it on spheres, shape spaces, and hyperbolic spaces. Numerical experiments show that MGFA substantially outperforms competing methods in well-specified regimes while remaining robust under model misspecification. Finally, case studies on corpus callosum and left hippocampus shape datasets demonstrate MGFA's effectiveness for both 2D contour and 3D shape analysis.

Covariate adjustment improves the efficiency of treatment-effect analyses in randomized clinical trials, provided the adjustment targets the correct quantity. For time-to-event endpoints, two marginal targets are of primary interest: the log-rank test for the presence of a treatment effect and the marginal hazard ratio for its magnitude. Existing covariate adjustment approaches reach these targets by different ways. Augmentation adjusts the log-rank score by regressing derived outcomes on the baseline covariates within each arm. Weighting instead reweights the two arms to balance the covariates before the survival comparison is formed: inverse probability weighting does so through a fitted propensity model, while calibration weighting solves directly for weights that match covariate means. In this manuscript, we first develop balancing weighting for time-to-event endpoints, covering both calibration weights (stable balancing weights and entropy balancing) and propensity score weights, and prove that any balancing-regular weighting is first-order equivalent to the augmented log-rank score and to the root of the marginal Cox score. All three routes therefore deliver the same estimator to first order, and calibration reaches it without fitting any model. The weighted procedures thereby inherit the validity and guaranteed efficiency gain of the augmentation approach. In addition, we show that the efficiency gain grows with the prognostic strength of the adjustment covariates, while the practical caveat lies in variance estimation, for which we give recommendations to guard against finite-sample Type I error inflation. We further confirm our results through simulation studies and an analysis of the REWIND cardiovascular trial.

Equitable scoring functions have a long history in meteorological forecast verification and have recently gained renewed prominence through the use of the Stable Equitable Error in Probability Space (SEEPS) score for evaluating precipitation forecasts from numerical and machine-learning weather prediction systems. This paper provides a systematic analysis of equitable scoring functions through the optimal forecasts they induce. We introduce the generalized diagonal score, which defines a broad class of equitable scoring functions that includes, up to equivalence, the SEEPS, Gerrity, Peirce, Barnston and diagonal scores. Within this framework, we show that optimal single-valued and categorical forecasts are characterized by crossing points between the predictive and climatological cumulative distribution functions. Moreover, we show that the generalized diagonal score, when evaluating predictive distributions, is proper but not strictly proper, and is insensitive to substantial forecast misspecification away from crossing points. The framework also yields scoring rules that are both proper and equitable for probabilistic forecasts with categorical outcomes. For single-valued and categorical forecasts, the crossing-point characterization shows that optimal forecasts can vary across climatologies even when the underlying predictive distribution is unchanged. Consequently, identical predictive distributions may lead to substantially different optimal forecasts under equitable scores, with important implications for assessing the suitability of such scores for any given application.

We discuss Bayesian inference on a low-dimensional targeted parameter in the presence of possibly highly complex nuisance components within the semi-parametric inference framework using an estimating function approach. We obtain a posterior distribution using non-parametric Bayesian methods through the Dirichlet process and the Bayesian bootstrap. We relax the commonly deployed notion of stochastic equicontinuity and develop a framework leading to posterior inference with good frequentist properties, specifically we demonstrate that the posterior distribution is asymptotically Normal and concentrates at the true value of the parameter. We emphasize the specific assumptions that are required to obtain these results, and how relaxing any of them alters the conclusions. We verify the analytical results in simulation.

The Mahalanobis distance is a fundamental covariance-adapted metric for multivariate data and plays a central role in recovering latent geometry from nonlinear observations. We extend this principle from vector-valued data to probability measures by introducing a Wasserstein Mahalanobis distance. Our construction replaces Euclidean displacement vectors with optimal transport displacement fields and local covariance matrices with covariance operators defined on Wasserstein tangent spaces. We show that this construction inherits the geometry-recovery property underlying nonlinear independent component analysis. In particular, for Gaussian measures with common covariance transformed by a smooth nonlinear pushforward, the proposed Wasserstein Mahalanobis distance approximates the classical Mahalanobis distance between the transformed latent means. The correspondence is exact for affine transformations and holds up to controlled higher-order error terms for general smooth transformations. These results establish a distribution-valued analog of classical Mahalanobis geometry and provide theoretical support for covariance-adapted learning directly in Wasserstein space. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical predictions and demonstrate accurate recovery of latent geometric structure.

This paper studies information-theoretic inaccuracy measures for record values and their application to testing symmetry. We study the Kerridge inaccuracy measure, cumulative residual inaccuracy, cumulative past inaccuracy, and extropy-based inaccuracy measures to the distributions of nth upper and lower k-record values. Explicit expressions are derived for several common lifetime distributions (exponential, Pareto, Weibull, and uniform), and the monotonic behaviour of these measures with respect to the record order n, the parameter k, and the distributional parameters is analysed. Building on the known characterisation that equality of upper and lower record-based inaccuracy implies symmetry, we develop a nonparametric goodness-of-fit test for symmetry. The test statistic is the difference between the estimated Kerridge inaccuracy measures for upper and lower records, and its null distribution is obtained by a bootstrap procedure that enforces symmetry. A simulation study demonstrates that the test maintains its nominal level for a variety of symmetric distributions and achieves high power against skewed alternatives, while a real-data illustration on annual maximum temperatures confirms its practical usefulness.

Latent subgroup analysis is central to fields such as genomics, precision medicine, and social science, where the goal is to identify heterogeneous populations with distinct covariate structures or response behaviors. Mixture models provide a natural probabilistic framework for this task, representing the data-generating distribution as a weighted combination of subgroup-specific laws with unobserved labels. In high-dimensional regimes, these analyses face significant challenges. Often, only a small subset of covariates drives meaningful subgroup separation; the remaining variables may introduce noise or redundancy. Standard clustering methods typically treat all dimensions as equal, but in high-dimensional spaces, irrelevant coordinates can distort distances and obscure the low-dimensional structures defining latent classes. This paper introduces a Bayesian distilled clustering framework for high-dimensional mixture models. We propose that clustering should occur within a statistically justified subspace rather than the full ambient space. Our method utilizes a Bayesian variable selection model to estimate posterior inclusion probabilities, quantifying the evidence that each covariate contributes to subgroup separation or response behavior. A "distilled" covariate set is then identified by controlling the expected false-discovery proportion. Clustering is performed on this reduced subspace, followed by conditional independence diagnostics to examine subgroup-specific dependencies among selected variables. Critically, this framework is model-based: the distillation step is tied directly to the mixture structure and response model rather than a generic dimension-reduction criterion. This ensures the resulting subspace remains aligned with the scientific objective: identifying latent subgroups that differ in both distributional structure and behavior.

Let $H\subseteq\{-1,+1\}^X$ be a class of finite VC dimension $d\ge1$. Writing $L$ for the binary risk and $L^*=\min_{h\in H}L(h)$, we construct a learner achieving the statistically optimal risk bound: from an i.i.d.\ sample of size $n$, for every $0<\delta\le 1/2$, with probability at least $1-\delta$, \[ L(\widehat h) \le L^*+ 7\cdot10^8\left( \sqrt{\frac{L^*(d+\log(1/\delta))}{n}} +\frac{d+\log(1/\delta)}{n} \right). \] This settles the sample complexity of agnostic PAC learning up to universal constants at every fixed $L^*$, matching the lower bounds of Devroye, Györfi, and Lugosi [A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition, Springer, 1996].

Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models have long been considered impractical beyond moderate dimensions: the likelihood is non-convex, the parametrization is identified only up to equivalence, and every evaluation costs a pass over the entire series. Yet their moving-average term captures with a few parameters what a pure autoregression matches only with many lags. We introduce an estimation framework that removes this computational barrier: each optimization iteration is independent of the series length $T$. The framework combines a partial-autocorrelation reparametrization that guarantees stationarity and invertibility by construction, Gaussian priors on the reparametrized coefficients with separate scales for diagonal and off-diagonal entries, and losses that depend on the data only through fixed-size sufficient statistics, evaluated by a Parseval (Fourier) identity at near-linear cost in the truncation length. This yields two point estimators: a regularized least-squares fit and a covariance-marginalized maximum-a-posteriori estimator. We prove that both recover the infinite-autoregressive representation of the true process at a near-parametric rate in fixed dimension, so the truncation introduces no asymptotic bias. The same machinery extends, at the same leading cost, to seasonal dynamics, exogenous regressors (VARMAX), and rolling-window refits. Empirically, the estimators stay close to the oracle forecast error from $d=10$ to $d=40$ (where classical conditional MLE returns non-invertible fits whose forecasts diverge) and match or beat VAR, Bayesian-VAR, component-wise ARMA, and sparse-VARMA baselines on retail-demand, meteorological, and air-quality data. This brings likelihood-based VARMA estimation, at a per-iteration cost independent of the series length, to the problem sizes where practitioners have so far relied on VAR models.

A monotone adversary observes an i.i.d. labeled sample and appends a finite number of further examples of its choice, every one of them labeled correctly by the target hypothesis. The learner sees a uniform shuffle of the combined sample and is scored on the original distribution. Every example is correctly labeled, but the insertions depend on the clean sample, so the combined sample is not exchangeable. Larsen, Pabbaraju, and Shetty, who introduced this model, showed that empirical risk minimization attains expected error $O((d/n)\log(n/d))$ for classes of VC dimension $d$, and that every known optimal learner can be pushed away from the $\Theta(d/n)$ rate, optimal for PAC learning. They asked whether the extra logarithm is an artifact of those particular algorithms or an inherent consequence of the lack of exchangeability. We show that this additional cost is inherent beyond VC dimension one. In the worst case over classes of VC dimension $d$ and over known finite insertion budgets, the minimax expected error is $\Theta(1/n)$ at $d=1$ and $\Theta((d/n)\log(n/d))$ for $d\geq 2$. The same rates hold with Littlestone dimension $d_{\mathrm L}$ in place of $d$, so the clean online-to-batch rate $O(d_{\mathrm L}/n)$ is unattainable as well. Thus, somewhat counterintuitively, adding correctly labeled examples can make learning harder by a logarithmic factor, even for classes that admit finite mistake bounds in online learning. The dimension-one upper bound is achieved by a simple improper learner whose analysis adapts the leave-one-out argument underlying the one-inclusion graph. All of our lower bounds are elementary and come from a single construction: an explicit class and prior on which two target hypothesis, which differ a point of nonnegligible mass, produce the same sample.

We study multinomial and biased-progressive No-U-Turn Samplers for strongly log-concave targets satisfying $mI_d\preceq \nabla^2U(x)\preceq LI_d,$ and $\|\nabla^2U(x)-\nabla^2U(y)\|_{\mathrm F}\le \gamma L^{3/2}\|x-y\|$ with \(\kappa\coloneqq L/m\). We introduce profile separation, a sufficient sign condition on the stationary mean U-turn diagnostics, and combine it with diagnostic concentration, leapfrog fidelity, and whole-orbit energy control to show that on a high-probability certification event, every doubling realization reaches a common terminal depth through a genuine U-turn. If \(T_\star\) is the selected physical trajectory length and \(a_\star=\sqrt m\,T_\star\), a terminal-depth transfer argument yields restricted conductance and warm-start mixing without lazifying either kernel. Up to logarithmic warm-start and accuracy factors, the transition bounds are \[ \widetilde O\!\left( 1+a_\star^2\kappa^2(1+\gamma)^{4/3} \right) \quad\text{and}\quad \widetilde O\!\left( 1+a_\star^4\kappa^3(1+\gamma)^2 \right) \] for multinomial and biased-progressive selection, respectively. These transition bounds are unconditional. Gradient-work bounds are deterministic when the maximum-depth cap is comparable to the certified depth and otherwise take cap-aware expected and high-probability forms. The framework recovers the Gaussian dimension dependence under these work-accounting conditions, provides population-profile and exact-diagnostic verification for nonlinear product targets, a near-isotropic specialization of the practical-tree certificate, and quantifies when a fixed post-warmup metric removes linear anisotropy.

Model evaluations may fix all tests before observing any responses or select later tests using earlier responses. We study this choice in a conditional-query model on a finite outcome space $\mathcal{X}$ with $|\mathcal{X}|=N$. We first ask which pairs of distribution classes can be reliably distinguished. We then ask how many additional queries are required to match an adaptive tester when all queried events must be fixed in advance. We show that learnability holds if and only if the two classes have positive separation in their pairwise conditional probabilities. When this separation is zero, the optimal worst-case error is exactly $1/2$ at every finite query budget. For any $T$-query adaptive policy and any $\rho \in (0,1)$, we construct a randomized non-adaptive procedure using $O(N^2(T + \log(1/\rho)))$ pair queries chosen before any response is observed. Its simulated transcript is within $\rho$ in total variation of the adaptive transcript, uniformly over all distributions in the model. We also construct a matching family with constant adaptive query complexity and $\Omega_\varepsilon(N^2)$ non-adaptive query complexity. Consequently, the worst-case fixed-error adaptivity gap is $\Theta_\varepsilon(N^2)$. Thus interaction can reduce the required number of tests by a quadratic factor, but the apparent exponential branching of an interactive evaluation does not yield an exponential query advantage.

A framework is developed for the inference of dynamics described by a generalized system of ordinary differential equations. A stochastic gradient method is coined that infers dynamics from observed marginal probability density functions using the joint probability density function of the observable and latent variables. Diffusion and other irreversible processes observed in a low-dimensional state can be recast as deterministic, reversible flows in a sufficiently augmented state space, where the joint density satisfies the hyperbolic Liouville equation. The marginal distribution observed is the projection of these hyperbolic dynamics onto the observed coordinates, with the latent components carrying the randomness and memory. This reframing allows inference for irreversible or stochastic dynamics into the recovery of a deterministic Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) from marginal observations. Instead of solving the high-dimensional Liouville equation for the joint density, the algorithm exploits its characteristic representation. Particles sampled from the initial distribution are transported along characteristic lines. The Eulerian sensitivity with respect to parameters is obtained by sensitivity propagation along the characteristic lines, with a crossed U-statistic producing an unbiased gradient estimator, which enables stochastic gradient descent. Four experiments validate the method: recovery of a three-mode linear system observed through the marginal of a single mode; a nonlinear Gompertz growth model with a hidden mode; a bistable system whose hidden mode turns a unimodal marginal bimodal; and Stokes–Oseen drag law recovery for particles in a cellular flow. Convergence behavior is analyzed across these settings.

Conditional expectation operators (CEOs) and their associated conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) play a central role across applied mathematics and machine learning, appearing in nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory. A fundamental question is when a CEO maps a function space on $\mathcal{Y}$ into a prescribed function space on $\mathcal{X}$, particularly a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We show that such mapping properties are characterized by the regularity of the Radon–Nikodym density of the conditional law, and establish a simple, verifiable sufficient condition under which the CEO is bounded and Hilbert–Schmidt. For RKHSs norm-equivalent to Sobolev spaces, this condition reduces to Sobolev regularity of the conditional density. The result yields a direct route to validate CME representations and error bounds for Galerkin-type and CME-based estimators. We verify the regularity condition in three settings: nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory for stochastic dynamical systems. We show in each case that classical regularity results on the underlying probabilistic model imply the required mapping properties. The resulting framework offers a unified perspective on conditional expectation operators across probability, operator theory, kernel methods, and stochastic dynamics.

The extended-onion and C-vine constructions of Lewandowski, Kurowicka and Joe (2009) are standard methods for sampling from the LKJ_n(eta) distribution on correlation matrices. We show that both arise from the simpler row-normalized Bartlett construction associated with the restricted-Wishart representation of Wang, Wu and Chu (2018), which exposes redundancies hidden in standard gamma-based implementations of the classical constructions. Two exact row-wise couplings establish this: the squared norm of the Gaussian vector supplying the onion's direction has exactly the Gamma law required for one component of the Beta radius, and the same vector, with one chi-squared variate, generates the entire row of mutually independent C-vine partial correlations with their required symmetric-Beta laws. We also show that, relative to flat off-diagonal measure, the LKJ family maximizes entropy at fixed expected log-determinant; the dual natural parameter is eta-1. Under gamma-ratio accounting, normalized Bartlett, the onion, and the conventional symmetric-Beta C-vine require n-1, 2(n-1), and n(n-1) Gamma-equivalent calls. Controlled benchmarks confirm a low-dimensional advantage over the onion implementation and a persistent advantage over the C-vine implementations examined; direct Bartlett normalization also avoids subtractive complements, moving the small-eta zero-diagonal threshold from machine-epsilon scale toward the subnormal range. The sampler is valid for every real eta > 0 and requires only standard normal and chi-squared variates.

Among $2^{nR}$ length-$n$ random sequences, one sequence is an outlier whose index is random. Under hypothesis $\mathcal{H}_0$, the components of the outlier are independent and identically distributed (IID) according to $Q_0$, whereas under hypothesis $\mathcal{H}_1$ they are IID according to $Q_1$. The remaining $(2^{nR}-1)$ sequences are mutually independent, independent of the outlier, and IID according to $P$ under both hypotheses. Based on the observation of all $2^{nR}$ sequences, one wishes to decide between $\mathcal{H}_0$ and $\mathcal{H}_1$. Under the constraint that the decision error probability under $\mathcal{H}_0$ must be bounded away from $1$, we determine the fastest exponential decay rate of the decision error probability under $\mathcal{H}_1$.

A polynomial structural regression model is studied, where the covariate is observed with a mixture of the classical and Berkson measurement errors. Both variances of the classical and Berkson errors, as well as some of their higher moments are assumed to be known. Without normality assumptions, consistent estimators of model parameters are constructed using the Corrected Score method, and conditions for their asymptotic normality are given. Under mild conditions, we found pairs of asymptotically independent estimators. A simulation study illustrates the results.

We provide limit theory for the trace of the squared sample correlation matrix $\mathbf R$, constructed from $n$ observations of a $p$-dimensional random vector with iid components. If the entries have finite fourth moment and $p$ and $n$ grow proportionally, it is known that $\operatorname{tr}({\mathbf R}^2)$ satisfies a central limit theorem (CLT) and the centering and scaling sequences are universal in the sense that they do not depend on the entry distribution. Under symmetry and regular variation assumption with index $\alpha$ and any growth rate of the dimension, we prove that the universal CLT remains valid for $\alpha >3$. For $\alpha<3$, we identify a critical dimension growth at which the fluctuations of $\operatorname{tr}({\mathbf R}^2)$ become non-Gaussian. Moreover, if the dimension $p$ grows faster and $\alpha\le 3$ we establish a non-universal CLT with norming sequences depending on the value of $\alpha$. Our findings are illustrated in a simulation study.

The one-sided microstructure noise model for high-frequency quotes from a limit order book is generalized to capture asset-specific noise tail behaviour. Estimation of a noise tail parameter becomes the key step for inference. This is possible based on moments of the high-frequency returns when specifying a parametric noise model. For a Gamma noise distribution, we establish a central limit theorem for 1-dependent observations from the resulting Gamma difference distribution and prove that it is valid also in the convolution model with general semimartingale log-price dynamics. We highlight that the noise tail parameter has important implications for estimating the efficient price and its volatility. An empirical analysis of recent NASDAQ limit order book data demonstrates that asset-specific noise tail parameters are relevant in practice.

Sequential clinical decision-making often involves more than maximizing average efficacy. Clinicians may need to simultaneously optimize clinically relevant tails of the outcome distribution, control treatment-related risk, and choose among multiple treatment options. Existing quantile dynamic treatment regime (DTR) methods capture distributional features of treatment outcomes but remain largely restricted to efficacy-only objectives and binary treatments. To address these limitations, we propose Risk-Aware Quantile Dynamic Treatment Regimes (RQDTR), a unified framework that optimizes a prespecified quantile of the cumulative potential outcome while explicitly incorporating treatment-related risk. We also develop an angle-based formulation for jointly learning decision rules across multiple treatment categories. Our framework includes three interpretable subclasses: efficacy-only quantile learning, constraint-based learning with population-level risk control, and utility-based learning through a composite benefit-risk utility. Theoretically, we establish identification and oracle equivalence, Fisher consistency of the smoothed surrogate, consistency of the estimated regime, and finite-sample performance error rates. Extensive simulation studies and applications to All of Us major depressive disorder and MIMIC-III sepsis data demonstrate that RQDTR improves tail-oriented efficacy and achieves more favorable benefit-risk trade-offs than existing quantile DTR methods.

We study the independence between an order statistic and its corresponding rank indicator for independent nonnegative random variables. A general characterization is established through a probability measure obtained by reweighting the distribution of a single observation according to its conditional probability of occupying a prescribed rank. This framework yields explicit expressions for the associated weighting functions and conditional distributions, as well as distribution-free measures of departure from independence based on Kolmogorov and Wasserstein distances. Special attention is devoted to the minimum and maximum order statistics, leading to new characterizations of independent right- and left-censoring under both single and multiple censoring mechanisms. We also establish sufficient conditions based on proportional hazards and proportional reversed hazards models and derive complete characterizations in the classical single-censoring setting. Discrete and continuous examples, together with numerical illustrations, are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.

We study exact simulation of diffusions via rejection sampling on path space using unbiased estimators of the density ratio obtained from Girsanov's theorem. When applied to the underdamped Langevin diffusion, it yields an algorithm for sampling from a strongly log-concave and log-smooth distribution with condition number $\kappa$, in dimension $d$, to accuracy $\varepsilon$ in Rényi divergence, in $\widetilde O(\kappa^{2/3} d^{1/3}\,\mathrm{polylog}(1/\varepsilon))$ queries. Under a third derivative bound, the dimension dependence improves to $d^{1/5}$. This improves substantially over the prior state-of-the-art complexity of $\widetilde O(\kappa d^{1/2}\,\mathrm{polylog}(1/\varepsilon))$ for the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm, and over the $d^{1/4}$ dimension dependence of Metropolized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo under the same third derivative bound. We also present applications to the mirror Langevin diffusion, and for obtaining Fisher information bounds in the non-log-concave case.