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Monday 7 September

Probability

Stationary solution for a fractional stochastic delay differential equations with multiple delays

This paper studies a linear stochastic delay differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion and involving a finite number of discrete delays. The model combines two sources of memory: delayed feedback in the drift and temporal dependence induced by the Hurst parameter of the fractional Brownian motion. We first introduce the fundamental solution associated with the corresponding deterministic delay equation and use it to obtain an explicit representation of the solution. The stochastic convolution with respect to fractional Brownian motion is defined pathwise as a Riemann–Stieltjes integral, using the finite-variation properties of the fundamental solution. This representation allows us to compute the mean and auto-covariance function of the process. Under a delay-independent stability condition on the drift coefficients, we prove that the fundamental solution decays exponentially and derive the long-time behaviour of the stochastic delay equation. In particular, the solution converges in finite-dimensional distributions to a stationary Gaussian process, whose limiting mean and covariance are given explicitly. When the Hurst parameter satisfies \(H>1/2\), we show that the limiting covariance preserves the long-memory behaviour of the driving fractional Brownian motion and decays asymptotically as \(h^{2H-2}\). Finally, by extending the noise to a double-sided fractional Brownian motion, we construct a stationary solution of the equation and prove its uniqueness. The results provide a tractable framework for modelling stationary systems with both delay effects and fractional memory, with potential applications to stochastic volatility, energy modelling, and other time series exhibiting persistence.
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Probability

Higher-order hyperuniformity of random measures

We study higher-order hyperuniformity through the large-scale variance of local $k$-point patterns, and write $\HU_k$ for the resulting condition; $\HU_1$ is ordinary hyperuniformity. The conditions $\HU_k$ need not coincide: for every $k\geq1$ there exists an $\mathbb R$-invariant weakly mixing simple point process that belongs to $\HU_j$ for all $j\leq k$ but not to $\HU_{k+1}$. Randomly translated lattices belong to $\HU_k$ for every $k$, whereas sufficiently small non-degenerate iid perturbations of lattices and projection determinantal point processes already belong to $\HU_1\setminus\HU_2$. For regular Euclidean cut-and-project processes we give an exact criterion for $\HU_k$. For ball windows, $\HU_k$ is equivalent to $\HU_1$ in internal dimensions two and three, whereas in every internal dimension $m\geq4$ we construct ball-window examples in $\HU_1\setminus\HU_2$. Finally, the nonperiodic Kurasov–Sarnak Fourier-quasicrystalline point process is stealthy—its first-order spectrum has a gap at the origin—yet does not belong to $\HU_2$.
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Probability

Critical-Window Fluctuations and Disorder Universality for the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick Model

We establish free-energy fluctuation limits for the Ising Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model in the nonzero parts of its critical window. For fixed $b\ne0$ and $\beta_N=1+bN^{-1/3}\sqrt{\log N}$, our main Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) result is \[ \sqrt{\frac6{\log N}}\left(F_{N,\beta_N}-N\,\mathrm{FE}(\beta_N)+\frac{\log N}{12}\right)\xrightarrow{d}G+\sqrt{\frac32}\,b_+TW_1, \] where $G$ is standard Gaussian, $TW_1$ has the real Tracy–Widom law, and $G$ is independent of $TW_1$, and $\mathrm{FE}$ denotes the limit of spherical Sherrington–Kirkpatrick free-energy. Additionally, we show that in a moderately supercritical regime \[ \frac{2}{N^{1/3}(\beta_N-1)}\left(F_{N,\beta_N}-N\,\mathrm{FE}(\beta_N)+\frac{\log N}{12}\right)\xrightarrow{d}TW_1. \] We also show that the above results remains valid for independent, not necessarily identically distributed, disorder matrices whose first three moments match the Gaussian law and whose fourth moments satisfy an averaged bound.
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All authors Yu Cheng, Song-Hao Liu, Qi-Man Shao, Jing-Yu Xu

Probability

Fixed Points for the $q$-Bass Martingale: Existence, Stability, and Convergence

We establish existence, uniqueness, stability, and convergence results for one-dimensional $q$-Bass martingales, characterized as the martingales with prescribed initial and terminal marginals whose transition kernels are closest to a reference measure $q$. Their existence is equivalent to the solvability of a fixed-point problem for probability distributions. Building on Acciaio and Marini (2026), that requires the first marginal to be supported on finitely many points, we study the case of general marginals in convex order. Under the assumption that $q\ll\lambda$, we prove existence, uniqueness and stability of fixed-point distributions, $\mathcal{W}_\infty$-convergence of the fixed-point iteration, and support-diameter estimates. We also extend the martingale Benamou-Brenier formula from Brownian motion to any additive reference process $X$ and show that the corresponding $X$-Bass martingale is optimal whenever it exists, with an interpretation as an adapted Wasserstein projection of $X$.
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Probability

Christoffel transform and symplectic skew Howe duality

For a symmetric weight $w(x)$ on a finite discrete lattice and its Christoffel transforms $x^{2}w(x),x^{2}(x^{2}w(x)),\dots$, we prove that, at each Christoffel step, the conjugated projection associated with the transformed Christoffel–Darboux kernel differs from the original orthogonal projection by a rank-one operator on the subspace of functions vanishing at the origin. This provides a general mechanism for transferring local asymptotic results from an orthogonal polynomial ensemble to its Christoffel-transformed counterpart as the lattice size tends to infinity. As a main application, we study local fluctuations of random Young diagrams arising from skew $(\mathrm{Sp}_{2n},\mathrm{Sp}_{2k})$ Howe duality. The corresponding particle ensemble is obtained from the Krawtchouk orthogonal polynomial ensemble on a quadratic lattice by a Christoffel transform. We identify four asymptotic regimes of local fluctuations in the limit $n,k\to\infty$ with $n/k\to c\in(0,\infty)$. Besides the universal bulk fluctuations governed by the discrete sine kernel and universal Airy fluctuations at the right edge of the limit shape, we obtain the discrete Hermite kernel in the critical regime $(k-n)/\sqrt{n+k}\longrightarrow r\in\mathbb{R}$, and the discrete hard-wall sine kernel at the left corner.
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Probability · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Spectral Criterion for Disorder-Free Localization of Quantum Walks on Hypercube: QBN Approach

We study disorder-free localization in a spin-coupled quantum walk on the hypercube within the quantum Bernoulli noises framework. We derive a general criterion for disorder-free localization: it occurs if and only if some spectral subspace of a reduced unitary evolution contains a vector whose position marginal probability is non-uniform. For the Grover walk with distance-dependent coupling \(\phi_\sigma=|\sigma|\pi/(n+1)\) in dimension \(d=4\), we explicitly construct a non-uniform fixed point in the all \(+1\) spin configuration. This implies that disorder-free localization occurs in our model.
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Probability

Critical and subcritical fusion asymptotics for Sine$_\beta$ correlation functions

We determine the first correction to the leading Vandermonde fusion law for the correlation functions of the Sine$*\beta$ process in the critical and and subcritical regimes $m\beta\leq1$. When $m\beta<1$, the normalized correction is of order $|\varepsilon|^{1+m\beta}$, with a strictly negative coefficient given by an explicit gamma-function ratio times an absolutely convergent arithmetic-geometric mean deficit integral. At $m\beta=1$, it is $-\frac{\sum*{i<j}(a_i-a_j)^2}{8m^2(2m+1)}\varepsilon^2\log(1/|\varepsilon|)+O(\varepsilon^2)$. For two merging points, the subcritical coefficient reduces to a gamma-function expression involving $\sec(\pi\beta)-1$, and the critical logarithmic coefficient is $-1/160$. The argument starts from a geometric interpolation of circular-Jacobi weights. Selecting one particle in the interpolation derivative increases the fused charge by $\beta$ and leaves a strict positive-power moment margin in the remaining stochastic-zeta expectation. This yields an absolutely convergent one-particle identity and uniform control at the collision scale. The results resolve the critical and subcritical conjecture in the author's earlier preprint and complement its supercritical second-order expansion.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cond-mat.dis-nn

Finite-rank multiplicative perturbations of rotationally invariant non-Hermitian random matrices

We study finite-rank multiplicative deformations of rotationally invariant non-Hermitian random matrices. More precisely, we consider models of the form $\mathbf{A}(\mathbf{I}+\mathbf{T})$, where $\mathbf{A}$ is a large rotationally invariant non-Hermitian random matrix, $\mathbf{T}$ is a finite-rank normal perturbation, and $\mathbf{I}$ denotes the identity matrix. We characterize the emergence of outlier eigenvalues, their fluctuations, and the associated eigenvector overlaps. Our results provide a multiplicative non-Hermitian counterpart to the classical Baik–Ben Arous–Péché framework.
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Probability · Cross-listed from q-fin.PR

Pricing and Hedging of Discretely Monitored Asian Options in the Volterra-Heston Model

We develop semi-closed pricing formulas and lifted-model hedging methods for discretely monitored geometric and arithmetic Asian options in the Volterra-Heston stochastic volatility model. Exploiting the affine Volterra structure, we derive a tractable transform for the joint law of the terminal log-price and the discretely monitored geometric average. This transform yields semi-closed pricing formulas for geometric Asian options, which in turn provide effective control variates for Monte Carlo valuation of arithmetic Asian options. Under the stated real-moment and affine-transform hypotheses, we also derive the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition for Fourier-representable payoffs and obtain a variance-optimal hedge in terms of the Riccati-Volterra equation and the forward-variance curve. Using N-factor Markovian approximations, we obtain a finite-dimensional numerical implementation for hedging Asian options. Our numerical experiments document factor convergence for a regular non-Markovian kernel and the effect of rebalancing frequency on hedging error. In the Heston benchmark, geometric Asian controls substantially reduce the variance of arithmetic-Asian price estimates and improve the finite-sample stability of regression-based hedging relative to direct regression.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cs.IT

Conditional Fisher-Information Central Limit Theorems under Log-Concavity with Information-Theoretic Consequences

We establish conditional central limit theorems in Fisher information under log-concavity in every fixed dimension. For conditionally centered normalized sums, after whitening by the averaged conditional covariance, the averaged conditional Fisher information converges to the dimension if and only if it is finite at one convolution level. The scalar criterion follows as the one-dimensional case; we also provide an independent scalar proof based on a second-order continuity theorem for Fisher production on Gaussian-smoothed, tail-controlled classes. For the original sums, the averaged Fisher information matrix converges in operator norm to the inverse averaged conditional covariance. Consequently, the conditional relative Fisher information with respect to the limiting Gaussian law vanishes, and the Gaussian logarithmic Sobolev inequality yields convergence in conditional relative entropy and conditional entropy. We give two operational consequences. For any fixed finite-constellation low-power input, the first-order conditional mutual-information slope converges to the Gaussian-noise benchmark. For Gaussian signaling at any fixed signal covariance, the mutual-information gap from that benchmark is bounded by the conditional relative Fisher deficit and hence vanishes asymptotically.
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Probability

Uniform asymptotics and entropy structure of the Bingham distribution in arbitrary dimensions

The Bingham distribution is widely used to model directional data with antipodal symmetry, and its normalizing constant $Z$ and moments play a central role in statistical inference and closure models. Their behavior becomes singular when one or more eigenvalue gaps of the parameter matrix become unbounded. In this work, we develop a uniform asymptotic framework for the Bingham distribution in arbitrary dimensions. Starting from an inverse-Laplace integral representation, we derive asymptotic expansions with explicit remainder estimates that are uniform with respect to arbitrary relative scales among multiple diverging eigenvalues. In a particular regime, the asymptotic series becomes absolutely convergent with an exponentially small remainder. These results yield precise asymptotic profiles of the Bingham moments and characterize the degeneration of higher-dimensional distributions to lower-dimensional counterparts. As an application to the Bingham closure, we prove that the entropy admits a decomposition into an explicit logarithmic leading term and a residual that is uniformly Lipschitz continuous on the moment simplex. Moreover, on each boundary face, the residual agrees with its lower-dimensional version up to an explicit additive constant. The results provide a unified description of the singular structure of the Bingham distribution and have implications for numerical closure and $Q$-tensor models of nematic liquid crystals.
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Probability

Optimal central limit theorem for bounded random variables in high dimensions

Let $W=n^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$, where the $X_i$ are independent centered random vectors in ${\mathbb R}^p$ with $|X_{ij}|\le B$ almost surely. Suppose that $\text{Cov}(W)$ has unit diagonal and smallest eigenvalue at least $b^2>0$. We prove that the distance between $W$ and a Gaussian vector with the same covariance, uniformly over axis-aligned rectangles, is at most $C\min\{1,b^{-2}Bn^{-1/2}\log^{3/2}(ep)\}$. For fixed $b$, the dependence on summand size and dimension matches known lower bounds in growing-dimensional regimes. The proof combines a concentration estimate near rectangle boundaries with a carefully chosen Gaussian comparison.
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Probability

Optimal Sobolev Rate for Gaussian Density Approximation of Wiener Chaos Vectors

Let $(F_n)$ be a sequence of random vectors with identity covariance matrix whose components belong to the same fixed Wiener chaos, and assume that $F_n$ converges in law to a standard Gaussian vector. We prove that, for every integer $m\geq0$ and every $p\in[1,\infty]$, the optimal rate of convergence of the densities in the Sobolev space $W^{m,p}$ is given by the maximum of the absolute third-order cumulants and the diagonal fourth-order cumulants. The same quantity also gives the optimal rates in total variation, Kolmogorov and $1$-Wasserstein distances. Our proof first derives, by Gaussian interpolation and Gaussian convolution, a cumulant expansion in the space of tempered distributions without imposing Malliavin nondegeneracy at the endpoint. Finite-order Malliavin density estimates then upgrade this identity to Sobolev spaces. Matching lower bounds follow from a finite-dimensional argument in which parity separates the third-order and fourth-order Gaussian corrections, while norm equivalence rules out cancellations among mixed cumulants. A superconvergence theorem supplies the required finite negative moments of the Malliavin determinant along a sufficiently far tail of the approximating sequence, so that no Malliavin nondegeneracy assumption is required.
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Probability

Gaussian Convolution, Internal Energies, and the Kneser–Poulsen Conjecture

We study to what extent the majorisation order between a probability measure and its $1$-Lipschitz image is preserved when both measures undergo Gaussian convolution. We show that the majorisation order is fully preserved in dimensions $n\leq 2$, and obtain dimension-dependent partial preservation in higher dimensions. The perspective taken is that majorisation between densities amounts to comparison through internal energies satisfying a certain pressure condition. Accordingly we introduce a notion of iterated nonnegativity of pressure, closely related to iterated pressures arising in optimal transport, placing the majorisation order within a graded hierarchy of internal energy comparisons. Using the observation that the volume of Euclidean neighbourhoods can be detected from internal energy measurements along the heat flow, we show that our results imply several principal known cases of the Kneser–Poulsen conjecture.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.MG

Hopf quotients of the infinite-dimensional Gaussian pyramid

We study the infinite-dimensional Gaussian pyramid and its quotients by the global sign flip and the $U(1)$-Hopf action. We resolve affirmatively a long-standing problem posed by Tomohiro Fukaya around 2014: these three limiting geometries are pairwise non-similar, meaning that no positive rescaling makes any two of them coincide.
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Probability

Locality of Bernoulli Site Percolation on Transitive Graphs

We prove locality of the critical probability for Bernoulli site percolation on infinite, connected, locally finite, vertex-transitive graphs, under the usual assumption that the critical probabilities stay uniformly below one. The proof develops site-percolation forms of the two-ghost inequality, sharp-threshold and snowballing estimates, and the nonunimodular height method. We also establish the plentiful-tube geometry needed for the multiscale argument from quantitative structure and random-walk estimates.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST

Almost Sharp Equivalence between Approximate Message Passing and Low-Degree Polynomials

We prove a sharp lower bound for growing-degree polynomial estimation in the Gaussian planted submatrix model. The observation is $$ \boldsymbol{Y}= \frac{\lambda}{\sqrt{n}} \boldsymbol{\theta} \boldsymbol{\theta}^{\top}+\boldsymbol{W}, $$ where the coordinates of $\boldsymbol{\theta}$ are independent $\mathsf{Ber}(\rho)$ variables and $\boldsymbol{W}$ is symmetric with independent standard Gaussian upper-triangular entries. For every fixed $\lambda>0$ and $\rho\in(0,1)$, we give an explicit finite-dimensional bound implying that every sequence of polynomial estimators of degree $D(n)=o(n^{1/60})$ has normalized mean-square error with limit inferior at least $\rho-q_{\mathsf{amp}}/\lambda$, the limiting error of Bayes approximate message passing (AMP). This extends the constant-degree result of Montanari and Wein~\cite{montanari2025equivalence} for the Bernoulli prior. Combined with their polynomial approximation of fixed-iteration AMP, the bound identifies the exact limiting low-degree MMSE whenever $D(n)\to\infty$ within this range. It therefore resolves the Bernoulli rank-one case of the growing-degree AMP-equivalence question discussed in~\cite{wein2025computational, maleki2026high}. The proof constructs a low-degree certificate using conditional joint cumulants of the signal coordinates and their products. Specifically, we condition on an auxiliary Gaussian channel $\boldsymbol{R}$ calibrated to the AMP fixed point. This retains signal dependence that is lost in unconditional cumulant bounds and produces the cancellations needed for quantitative control as the degree grows. Most of the arguments in this paper were generated using GPT-6 Astra.
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Probability

The $L^q$-bounds for Derivatives of Unitary Developments of Random Continuous Geometric Rough Paths

In this paper we derive an explicit formula for derivatives of unitary developments of random continuous geometric rough paths of all orders and establish proper $L^q$-bounds for them, which allow us to study the analyticity of their characteristic functions in a quantitative manner and then prove that under some mild conditions the distributions of the signatures of random continuous geometric rough paths are determined by their expected signatures, provided the latter have positive radius of convergence. In particular, we give a partial affirmative answer to an open question posed by T. Lyons and H. Ni in “Expected signature of Brownian motion up to the first exit time from a bounded domain” (The Annals of Probability, 43(5), 2729-2762, 2015), concerning whether the expected signature of stopped Brownian motion determines the law of its signature.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST

Accelerated High-Accuracy Sampling from a Warm Start via the Proximal Bouncy Particle Sampler

We study the problem of sampling from $\mu(\mathrm{d}x)\propto e^{-V(x)}\,\mathrm{d}x$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, where $V$ is $\alpha$-strongly convex and $\beta$-smooth, and write $\kappa:=\beta/\alpha$. We design and analyze the Proximal Bouncy Particle Sampler (Proximal BPS), a new sampler that combines ideas from the proximal sampler and the bouncy particle sampler. From a warm start initialization with $ O(1) $ Rényi divergence w.r.t. $\mu$, Proximal BPS returns a sample whose law is $\varepsilon$-close to $\mu$ in total variation distance using $\widetilde O(\sqrt\kappa\,d^{1/4} \,\mathrm{polylog}(1/\varepsilon))$ gradient queries in expectation.
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All authors Fan Chen, Sinho Chewi, Jianfeng Lu, Matthew S Zhang

Probability

$q$-deformed polyanalytic Ginibre point processes:construction and central limit theorems for linear statistics

Based on the representation theory of the $q$-CCR algebra, we develop a representation-theoretic construction of the $q$-deformed polyanalytic Fock spaces, their reproducing kernels, and the associated $q$-deformed polyanalytic Bargmann transforms. The associated determinantal point processes provide $q$-deformations of the pure and full polyanalytic Ginibre ensembles. Moreover, we determine their limiting density and establish central limit theorems for the fluctuations of their linear statistics as the number of particles tends to infinity and the deformation parameter $q$ tends to 1 simultaneously. Remarkably, although the $q$-deformation changes the macroscopic density and the size of the droplet, the limiting covariance structures coincide, after spatial rescaling, with those of the classical polyanalytic Ginibre ensembles.
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Probability

Hydrodynamic limit of exclusion processes with killing on weighted Riemannian manifolds via a graph discretization

In the present paper, we consider an exclusion process with killing on a proximity graph constructed from a partition of a geodesically complete weighted Riemannian manifold. We rigorously derive its hydrodynamic equation, which is governed by a heat equation with a killing potential term on the manifold. Within our graph discretization framework, we define an empirical density field for the exclusion process and prove its convergence, under an appropriate space-time scaling, to the unique bounded weak solution of the hydrodynamic equation, provided that the weighted manifold is stochastically complete. Combining local regularity for the parabolic equation with techniques from stochastic analysis on manifolds, we prove the uniqueness of the bounded weak solution and give the explicit representation of the solution in terms of the minimal Schrödinger kernel. Our result requires neither a global lower Ricci curvature bound nor global boundedness of the weight function.
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Probability

Strong Galerkin Approximation, Malliavin Regularity, and Blow-Up for a Mixed Local–Nonlocal Stochastic Wave Equation

We investigate the dynamical behavior of a class of semilinear stochastic wave equations on a bounded smooth domain $\Ocal\subset\R^d$ driven by additive trace-class noise, where the elastic response is governed by a mixed local–nonlocal operator $\Acal=-\theta\Delta+\beta(-\Delta)^s$ with $s\in(0,1)$. A fundamental challenge in this setting is that the local and nonlocal operators do not commute on bounded domains: the natural Dirichlet basis fails to diagonalize the restricted fractional Laplacian. Consequently, we first establish the strong convergence of the resulting non-diagonal, dense Galerkin approximation scheme. Leveraging these uniform energy bounds, we rigorously derive the associated Itô energy identity. In the defocusing regime ($\varepsilon = +1$), this strong approximation yields global well-posedness on the energy-subcritical range, providing a unique probabilistically strong solution in the energy space $V \times H$. Within this variational framework, we conduct an analysis of the Malliavin regularity, showing $(u(t), v(t)) \in \mathbb{D}^{1,2}(V) \times \mathbb{D}^{1,2}(H)$, and leverage fractional Sobolev embeddings to prove that the one-dimensional probability law of $u(t, x_0)$ is absolutely continuous via the Bouleau–Hirsch criterion. In stark contrast, for the focusing regime ($\varepsilon = -1$), we establish local well-posedness and prove a rigorous dichotomy: under a negativity condition on the initial energy, either pathwise explosion occurs with positive probability in finite time, or the energy norm possesses an infinite second moment before an explicit critical time $T^*$. Finally, we observe how the dense Galerkin interaction matrices pose unique structural challenges for spatial statistical inference.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Learning Adaptive SED for heterogeneous load balancing

We study a two-server load balancing system with heterogeneous service rates that are a priori unknown to the dispatcher. The goal is to route customers according to the Shortest–Expected–Delay (SED) policy, but this requires knowledge of the service rates. Empirical policies that route based on estimates perform poorly: due to estimation error, the empirical policy disagrees with the oracle on an infinite region of the state space. We propose an online learning algorithm that converges to SED while learning the service rates. The algorithm carefully balances empirical SED routing with forced exploration phases that guarantee sufficient sampling of both servers. We prove that our algorithm achieves finite regret; this differs from classical Multi-Armed Bandit settings where regret typically grows logarithmically in time. Finally, numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of our algorithm and highlight the regimes in which forced exploration is especially beneficial.
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All authors Sanne van Kempen, Jaron Sanders, Fiona Sloothaak, Maarten G. Wolf

Sunday 6 September

Probability

Normal random variables

This is an advanced introduction to the various types of normal random variables, with most of the needed preliminaries included. We first discuss the probability basics, standard central limits, and the theory of the usual, real normal variables, with examples, illustrations and numerous formulae. Then we go on a similar discussion regarding the complex normal variables, and the Rayleigh variables too. We then move to arbitrary dimensions, with a discussion regarding the Gaussian vectors, and related probability laws, featuring some functional analysis, and geometry and physics too. Finally, we provide an introduction to the quantum versions of the normal variables, and notably to those coming from free probability and random matrices.
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Probability

Uniqueness for DLR equations of $\mathsf{Sine}_\beta$

We prove that, for all $\beta>0$, the Dobrushin-Lanford-Ruelle (DLR) equations for the unit-intensity $\mathsf{Sine}_\beta$ point process have a unique stationary solution under a particular finite electric energy condition. Uniqueness fails if this condition is dropped. This answers a question of Dereudre-Hardy-Leblé-Maïda and gives a canonical statistical physics characterisation of $\mathsf{Sine}_\beta$. The main technical ingredient is a relative entropy estimate which allows us to compare the conditional distribution in a finite box of a DLR solution to a corresponding circular $\beta$ ensemble.
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Probability

The maximum relaxation time of a random walk on regular graphs

We establish sharp quadratic bounds on the relaxation time of simple random walk on connected regular graphs, with leading constants $3/(2\pi^2)$ and $1/\pi^2$ for even and odd orders, respectively. This resolves a longstanding conjecture known as Aldous–Fill spectral gap conjecture (2002). We also prove uniqueness and stability theorems for the corresponding cubic and quartic chains, and settle the quartic uniqueness conjecture posed by Abdi, Ghorbani, and Imrich (2021) and by Abdi and Ghorbani (2023). We establish sharp bounds on algebraic connectivity under minimum-degree and regularity constraints and prove the conjectured chain structure of the minimisers, identifying their repeating blocks. This resolves a longstanding conjecture of Guiduli and Mohar (1996) and a structural conjecture of Abdi and Ghorbani (2024). Our quantitative stability theorem shows that nearly minimum algebraic connectivity forces nearly maximum diameter, proving their diameter conjecture. We further obtain sharp relaxation-time bounds in terms of edge-connectivity. For nonregular graphs, we establish sharp bounds for the gap between maximum degree and adjacency spectral radius, confirming a conjecture of Liu (2024). As applications, we prove the sharp bounds on hitting and commute times conjectured by Aldous and Fill (2002) for regular graphs.
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Probability

Central limit theorem for real zeros of random Weyl polynomials with general coefficients

For a random polynomial, the number of real zeros $N_{\mathbb R}$ is a highly nonlinear function of its coefficients, and its statistical properties have been studied extensively. A natural question is whether $N_{\mathbb R}$ satisfies a central limit theorem. For various ensembles with iid standard Gaussian coefficients, such central limit theorems have been established; see, for instance, arXiv:1911.12182, arXiv:1801.06331, arXiv:1401.5745; Azais and Leon, Electron. J. Probab. 18 (2013), no. 68; arXiv:1504.05355, arXiv:2111.09015, arXiv:1707.09276, arXiv:1005.4113. These results rely on a rich range of tools, including Kac-Rice formulas, moment methods, and Wiener chaos decompositions. In the non-Gaussian setting, however, many of these tools are unavailable. To the best of our knowledge, prior central limit theorems beyond the Gaussian setting were limited to Kac-type polynomials, including hyperbolic polynomials; see the works of Maslova (1974), O. Nguyen and Vu (arXiv:1904.04347), and, more recently, Do, N. Nguyen, and O'Rourke (arXiv:2605.26402). In this paper, we prove a central limit theorem for the total number of real zeros of Weyl polynomials whose coefficients are iid copies of a symmetric, mean-zero, variance-one subgaussian random variable $\xi$. This substantially extends one of the main results of Do and Vu (arXiv:1707.09276) to a broad class of non-Gaussian distributions, including the Rademacher distribution. Without the symmetry assumption, we prove central limit theorems for the number of real zeros for positive bulk intervals, as well as for $[0,\infty)$. Our proof combines the uniform one-point anti-concentration estimates from our recent work (arXiv:2511.07735) with the localization of Weyl polynomials around the coefficient index $i\approx x^2$. While our proofs use comparison to compute the variances, the CLT deduction is rather direct.
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Probability

Random walk and Weber-Schafheitlin integral: generalizations and discussion

This paper presents a study of the Weber-Schafheitlin integral and its connections to random walk theory. The Weber-Schafheitlin integral, defined as the improper integral of a product of Bessel functions, arises naturally in the evaluation of probability distributions for multidimensional random walks. This work bridges pure special function theory with applied probability.
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Probability

Identifiability of finite-state $\epsilon$-machines from finite summaries

We study how much observable finite-dimensional information is sufficient to identify a finite-state generator $\epsilon$-machine. The observable summaries are labeled tables of conditional probabilities given finite histories and contiguous block laws. For stationary ergodic finite-alphabet processes, we first prove that a table with past horizon $L$ and future horizon $R$ is equivalent to the block law of length $L+R$. We then recall the classical linear-realization bound. Two hidden Markov presentations with $r$ and $s$ states agree on the entire process law if they agree on words through length $r+s-1$. Our main result gives a structural synchronization bound adapted to exact finite-state generator $\epsilon$-machines. If their target synchronization radii are $a$ and $b$, and their maximum predictive separation radius is $d$, then equality of one block law of length $a+b+d+1$ implies isomorphism. The proof aligns the states of both machines with words that synchronize the two generators simultaneously. For the full-support binary context subfamily of order $m$ with pairwise distinct parameters, the structural synchronization bound is $2m+2$, whereas the state-count and rank-dimension forms of the classical linear-realization bound are $2^{m+1}-1$. A construction shows that a horizon of order $m$ is necessary. When the order-$m$ context structure is known in advance, the sharp horizon is $m+1$ symbols. Thus the raw state-count and rank-dimension formulas can be exponentially pessimistic on this subfamily. The comparison is between general sufficient bounds, not with an optimal realization horizon.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.NA

A discontinuous Galerkin approximation of the Dean–Kawasaki equation

We introduce and analyse an arbitrary order spatial discontinuous Galerkin (dG) method for the Dean–Kawasaki equation, a highly singular SPDE modelling density fluctuations of $N$ diffusing particles in the regime of large particle number $N \gg 1$. Our starting point is a general procedure for discretising multiplicative, divergence-form noise on finite element spaces whilst preserving its cross-variation structure at the discrete level; the construction is explicit, elementwise, applies to continuous and discontinuous spaces alike, and extends to general mobilities. Using it, we prove weak error estimates of order $O(h^p)$ between fluctuations of the semi-discrete scheme and those of the underlying particle system, together with a correction that is exponentially small in the scaling regime $Nh^d \gg 1$ and arises because the scheme does not preserve positivity. The resulting method is locally and globally conservative and applies on unstructured simplicial meshes. Quantitative numerical experiments support the analysis, and further experiments illustrate the method beyond the scope of the theory: indicator function observables, external and interaction potentials, convection-dominated regimes and reflecting boundary conditions.
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