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Sunday 6 September

Probability

Recurrence, Transience, and the Rate of Escape for Elephant Random Walks with Two Memory Channels

We study the one-dimensional elephant random walk with two memory channels introduced by Saha [Phys.\ Rev.\ E 106, L062105 (2022)] with memory parameter $p\in(0,1)$. Maulik, Roy and Sadhukhan [arXiv:2509.10225] proved recurrence for $p\le11/16$ and transience for $p>7/8$, leaving the range $11/16<p\le7/8$ open. We close this gap by proving that $p=11/16$ is the exact recurrence–transience threshold and by determining how fast the walk escapes from the origin throughout the transient regime. For $11/16<p<7/8$, we also show that the scaling limit obtained by Maulik, Roy and Sadhukhan is almost surely nonzero. At $p=7/8$, we prove that the walk is transient with zero asymptotic velocity and escapes at the scale $n/\sqrt{\log n}$.
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Probability

Fluid and Diffusion Approximation of a Multiclass Proportional Processor Sharing Queue with Reneging and General Distributions

In this paper, we resolve the long open problem of the diffusion approximation for a generally distributed processor sharing queue with reneging. In particular, we first extend the known fluid limit for a single class processor sharing queue with reneging to the multiclass proportional processor sharing queue with reneging. We prove uniqueness of fluid model solutions and convergence of fluid scaled models to fluid model solutions. Next, we show that, under diffusion-scaling, the models are tight, and that subsequential limits can be uniquely characterized by a certain system of SDEs driven by a Gaussian sheet on $\R_+^2$ with a nontrivial covariation structure.
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Probability

Rough backward stochastic differential equations

We develop an intrinsic well-posedness theory for nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) driven simultaneously by Brownian motion and a (level-$2$) rough path of finite $p$-variation. Unlike earlier approaches based on smooth approximation or transformation methods, we formulate the equation directly by viewing its solution as a rough semimartingale (in the sense of \cite{friz2023rough}). This framework is particularly suited to BSDEs, whose Brownian martingale component is only implicitly defined and lacks the a priori time regularity required by stochastic-sewing-based controlled rough path methods \cite{fhl21,allan2024rough}. We establish comparison, existence, uniqueness, and stability under the natural regularity condition $H\in C_b^\gamma$, $\gamma>p$. The main analytical difficulty, namely, the loss of integrability arising from nonlinear composition, is overcome through conditional $p$-variation norms with BMO-type properties. Finally, by randomizing the rough driver as a Brownian rough path, we establish a direct correspondence between rough BSDEs and backward doubly stochastic differential equations (BDSDEs).
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All authors Peter K. Friz, Jian Song, Huilin Zhang, Kuan Zhang

Probability

A Functional Central Limit Theorem for Window Counts of Hardy–Szegő Zeros

The Hardy–Szegő zero process, investigated in the disk by Peres and Virág through the independent identically distributed Gaussian analytic function, is a canonical conformally invariant determinantal point process. This paper studies its upper half-plane realization. Although conformally equivalent to the disk model, this realization has its own natural geometry: real-translation invariance turns the process into a stationary object along the boundary and makes long horizontal windows the natural observables. For every admissible height window, we prove a Donsker-type functional central limit theorem for the centered zero counts in expanding horizontal windows, with an explicit intensity and variance depending on the height window. The proof is based on factorial cumulants and Brillinger mixing. The main technical input is a family of all-order integrability estimates for reduced cumulant densities, obtained by exploiting the determinantal cycle structure before integrating over the height variables. As further consequences, we derive an explicit covariance density, an asymptotic variance formula, and a macroscopic Gaussian white-noise limit for linear statistics.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.FA

Equivalence between $N$-particle log-Sobolev inequalities and non-linear Łojasiewicz inequalities for a class of mean field systems

The convergence rate of a free energy Wasserstein gradient flow is quantified by its so-called Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) constant $\lambda$, which relates the objective function to its dissipation along the flow. Such a flow is the mean-field limit as $N$ goes to infinity of a system of $N$ interacting particles, whose convergence rate in relative entropy towards its Gibbs measure is quantified by its log-Sobolev constant $\lambda_N$. Different behaviours of $\lambda_N$ as $N$ goes to infinity thus describe drastically different phenomena, such as fast relaxation or metastability, with many models undergoing phase transitions between these regimes, depending typically on temperature. Under fairly general conditions, a uniform-in-$N$ log-Sobolev constant (i.e. fast exponential convergence for the particle system) is known to induce a positive PL constant (i.e. exponential convergence for the mean-field flow). A conjecture was stated by Delgadino, Gvalani, Pavliotis and Smith according to which the converse implication was true ($\lambda>0$ implies $\liminf \lambda_N >0$), even with $\lim \lambda_N =\lambda$. First, we will prove this converse implication, although without the equality $\lim \lambda_N = \lambda$, for a general class of mean-field models. Second, we also notice that this implication fails if the free energy minimiser is not unique, and provide an explicit counter-example. Third, we also consider the same question of relating $N$-particle and mean-field inequalities in the context of more general Lojasiewicz inequalities, which correspond to polynomial (instead of exponential) convergence rates, and can describe the situation exactly at a phase transition.
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Probability

Shifted Anticoncentration for Real Gram Hafnians and Symmetric Gaussian Hafnians

We prove a uniform shifted anticoncentration theorem for the hafnian of a real Gaussian Gram matrix under an explicit condition on the row dimension. After normalization by its root mean square, the law has a bounded continuous density, maximal at zero, and every interval has probability bounded by an explicit coefficient times its radius. Under suitable growth conditions on the row dimension, this coefficient grows at most polynomially in the hafnian order, meaning half the dimension of the Gram matrix. We also compute the exact second moment. The proof exploits the perfect matching structure, combining conditional Gaussian representations, row suspension, and bilinear interpolation to control an inverse moment of the conditional variance. At fixed hafnian order, a rescaled limit as the row dimension grows yields corresponding bounds for the hafnian of a real symmetric Gaussian matrix with independent entries above the diagonal.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.AT

Central Limit Theorems for Persistent Betti Numbers

Various persistent invariants have been developed in recent years. In this paper, we develop a method based on homological algebra for deriving central limit theorems for persistent Betti numbers associated with $\mathbb{R}$-indexed chain complexes constructed from a homogeneous Poisson point process of unit intensity on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our method also applies to Gibbs point processes. This algebraic method reduces the verification of the required conditions to checking properties of the kernels and cokernels of add one maps between chain complexes. As an application, we recover the known central limit theorem for persistent Betti numbers arising from simplicial complex filtrations. In addition, we prove a central limit theorem for persistent Betti numbers of $\ell_p$-Vietoris-Rips simplicial homology, including blurred magnitude homology of random geometric graphs. We also establish central limit theorems for relative $\ell_p$-Vietoris-Rips homology and, in particular, for magnitude Betti numbers of random geometric graphs. These results suggest that our algebraic method can be applied more broadly to derive central limit theorems for persistent Betti numbers.
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Probability

Fluctuating Kinetic Theory: A Poissonian Stochastic Boltzmann Equation

We introduce a nonlinear Poissonian fluctuating Boltzmann equation whose noise encodes both the fluctuations and the path large-deviation rate function of the underlying hard-sphere gas. Unlike the Gaussian-noise equations commonly studied in fluctuating hydrodynamics, the present equation raises a new difficulty: a Poisson random measure produces jumps that may destroy the nonnegativity of the solution. To address this problem, we construct a finite-dimensional coarse-grained jump process and prove its well-posedness and nonnegativity. For each fixed mesh, this process satisfies a good path large-deviation principle. We then fix a regularized velocity cutoff and study the asymptotic behavior of the discrete rate functions as the mesh is refined. On a class of biased regular paths, their limit is the corresponding cutoff Boltzmann large-deviation rate function associated with the hard-sphere gas. This establishes the consistency of the coarse-grained fluctuating Boltzmann model with the underlying particle system at the level of path large deviations.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.NA

Rate of convergence of a fully discrete structure-preserving midpoint scheme for the stochastic Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert equation

The stochastic Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert (sLLG) equation is a strongly nonlinear stochastic PDE with a non-convex pointwise constraint arising in the theory of micromagnetics. We analyse a fully discrete, structure-preserving finite element approximation of the sLLG equation with coloured multiplicative Stratonovich noise on a bounded interval. The method utilises continuous piecewise affine finite elements, mass lumping, and midpoint time discretisation to preserve the unit-length constraint exactly at the finite element nodes. Under suitable regularity assumptions on the initial data and the noise, we establish uniform higher-moment stability and develop an error analysis for the scheme. The analysis exploits the geometric structure of the equation and the stochastic midpoint discretisation. For every $\gamma\in(0,\frac12)$, we prove first-order spatial convergence and temporal convergence of order $\gamma$ in the natural discrete energy norm, locally in mean square on events of arbitrarily large probability and, consequently, in probability. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first convergence-rate result for a fully discrete structure-preserving finite element scheme solving the stochastic Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert equation.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cs.IT

From Tsallis to KL: Convergence and Error Estimates for Tsallis-Regularized Optimal Transport

We study the Tsallis-to-Kullback–Leibler (KL) limit for entropy-regularized optimal transport with nonnegative bounded continuous costs. Fixing the regularization parameter $\varepsilon > 0$, we first derive an exact variational reformulation of Tsallis-regularized optimal transport in terms of the Tsallis information projection onto the set of couplings. The formula isolates an explicit correction term and thereby explains why, unlike in the KL case, the regularized transport problem and the corresponding information projection problem do not coincide exactly. We also establish existence and uniqueness for the Tsallis information projection. We then prove, with respect to the narrow topology, the $\Gamma$-convergence of the Tsallis-regularized functionals to the KL-regularized functional as $q\downarrow1$, together with narrow convergence of their unique minimizers. Finally, we obtain explicit error estimates of order $O(q-1)$ for both the regularized optimal transport values and the associated information projection values. These results quantify the passage from Tsallis regularization to the classical KL setting and clarify the relation between entropic regularization and information projection for $1 < q \leq 2$.
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Probability · Cross-listed from stat.ML

Beyond Worst-Case Coreset Bounds for $k$-Clustering via Determinantal Sampling

Massive datasets in modern machine learning have made data reduction a central challenge, particularly for clustering tasks where memory and computational constraints demand compact yet faithful summaries. A standard approach is to construct an \textit{$\epsilon$-coreset}: a small weighted subset that approximately preserves the clustering cost for every plausible choice of centers. For the \textit{$(k,z)$-clustering problem}, existing worst-case bounds on coreset size are essentially tight, ruling out substantially smaller coresets in general. However, such worst-case instances are often unrepresentative of real-world data. In this work, we show that significantly smaller coresets are possible under mild and natural assumptions on the underlying data distribution. We introduce a new correlated sampling framework, called determinantal sampling, based on a novel application of determinantal point processes. Using this framework, we obtain an efficiently constructible $\varepsilon$-coreset for $(k,z)$-clustering in $\mathbb R^d$ whose dependence on $1/\varepsilon$ has exponent strictly smaller than $2$ when $d$ is fixed. This improves over the worst-case $\varepsilon^{-2}$ barrier under our beyond-worst-case assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result that provably surpasses these lower bounds through beyond-worst-case assumptions. Finally, we validate our approach on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets, where it consistently achieves smaller coresets than existing state-of-the-art methods, even without explicitly enforcing the assumptions used in the analysis.
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All authors Diptarka Chakraborty, Satyaki Mukherjee, Gaurav Vallabhdas Revankar, Hoang-Son Tran

Probability

The Berry-Esseen Constant Conjecture is Eventually True

We prove that the Esseen's constant $0.4097...$ is valid in the iid Berry–Esseen inequality as long as the sample sizes $n\ge N$. The threshold $N$ is universal over all real summand distributions with positive variance and a finite third absolute moment. In particular, one may take $N=2\left\lceil\exp(10^{17})\right\rceil. $
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Saturday 5 September

Probability

A Branching Process with Geometric Emigration and the "Have Your Cookie and Eat It" Random Walk

We consider a random walk on the integers that at each site is biased to step right until the first time it has stepped left from that site, thereafter stepping left or right from that site with equal chance, introduced by Pinsky. Pinsky calculated the speed of the walk and the probability that such a walk escapes to infinity for some ranges of \(p\) and conjectured these formulas hold over a wider range. To study this walk, we introduce a branching process featuring geometric emigration and answer some questions concerning its life-periods, transience and recurrence, and the mean of its stationary distribution when positive recurrent. We apply these results to confirm Pinsky's predictions. For another application, we calculate the speed and escape probability of a related self-interacting random walk.
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Probability

Sample genealogies within a Brownian excursion

In this article, we apply Itô's excursion theory to find the joint law of minima of a Brownian excursion conditioned to go above level $1$ over the intervals defined by $k$ independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) points of intersection of the excursion with level $a \in (0,1]$. This approach offers an intuitive way to find the joint law of coalescent times of an i.i.d. sample of k particles alive at time $a$ in Aldous' continuum random tree of height $1$. This can be thought of as “sampling of the limit" of critical Galton-Watson trees conditioned to survive a large time, agreeing with some special cases obtained in [4] and [5] which instead consider “the limit of sampling" from critical Galton-Watson trees.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.CO

About the Cramér Large Deviation Property for Bell Polynomials

If $\boldsymbol{w} = (w_1,w_2,\dots)$ is a sequence in $\mathbb{N}=\{1,2,\dots\}$, the partial Bell polynomials based on $\boldsymbol{w}$ are $B_{n,k}$ for $k \in \mathbb{N}$ and $n\in\{k,k+1,\dots\}$. Let $F(z) = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} (w_n/n!)z^n$ be the exponential generating function for $\boldsymbol{w}$, and assume the radius of convegence is positive $R>0$. Then $F(z)^k = \sum_{n=k}^{\infty} (k!/n!) z^n B_{n,k}$ for $|z|<R$. Alternatively, defining $Q_{k,n} = (k!/n!)B_{n,k}$, we have $Q_{1,n} = w_n/n!$, and $Q_{k+1,n}=\sum_{m=1}^{n-k} Q_{1,m} Q_{k,n-m}$ for $k\geq 1$. Let us say that the Cramér-type large deviation property holds if $$ \lim_{\substack{n \to \infty\\ k/n \to \kappa}} \frac{1}{n}\, \ln\left(Q_{k,n}\right)\, =\, \mathcal{G}(\kappa)\, ,$$ for every $\kappa \in (0,1)$, where $\mathcal{G}(\kappa)=\inf_{r \in (0,R)} (\kappa \ln(F(r))-\ln(r))$. The (Hardy-Ramanujan) Erdös induction argument suggests this should generally be true as long as two technical conditions are true: one an initial step, and the other a condition for small densities $\kappa$.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.CO

Distance statistics of block-weighted planar quadrangulations

We study random planar quadrangulations in which each block – i.e., each simple (without multiple edges) component – is assigned a weight $u$. We derive an explicit expression for the distance-dependent two-point function, defined as the generating function of such block-weighted maps with two marked edges at a fixed graph distance. Using contour integral representations in two variables combined with a delicate saddle-point analysis, we compute the associated distance profile in the scaling limit of large quadrangulations. We recover the known phase transition at $u = 9/5$, characterized by distinct scaling exponents and different scaling functions, below, at, and above criticality. We also discuss the block distance profile, where the two marked edges are conditioned to lie within the same block.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.FA

Functional representation and functional calculus for controlled paths

We study the relation between non-anticipative functional calculus and compatible families of controlled paths. For a non-anticipative functional satisfying horizontal Lipschitz regularity, we show that the iterated vertical derivatives generate compatible higher-order controlled Taylor expansions along Hölder controls, with level-dependent remainder exponents. We derive a rough-integration criterion from these estimates and show that, for $\gamma-$Hölder controls with $\tfrac{1}{2}\geq \gamma>\sqrt{2}-1$, the first-order remainder estimate is recovered. Our main result is a converse representation theorem. We consider non-anticipative functionals $G_0,\ldots,G_p$ which satisfy compatible higher-order controlled Taylor estimates along $\gamma$-Hölder paths. Under natural continuity and compatibility assumptions, we prove that they can be represented as the iterated vertical derivatives of the base functional: $ G_j=\nabla_\omega^jG_0,\qquad j=1,\ldots,p.$ Thus the Gubinelli coefficients of a compatible controlled family are symmetric and uniquely determined by its base functional; in particular, the Gubinelli derivative is identified with the vertical derivative introduced in functional Itô calculus, giving the coefficient hierarchy an intrinsic path-space differential structure. We show that this class of compatible coefficient families is stable under admissible non-anticipative functional composition and derive the corresponding functional chain rule. As an application, we obtain well-posedness for a class of path-dependent rough differential equations with Volterra memory, and identify the Gubinelli derivative of the resulting path-dependent rough coefficient.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math-ph

Renormalization Group on Wiener Space: Spectral Theory and Universality

We develop a rigorous renormalization group (RG) formalism on Wiener space. We introduce an RG operator $\mathcal R$ acting on probability measures over continuous paths, whose fixed point is the Wiener measure. We linearize $\mathcal{R}$ around the Brownian fixed point and analyze the spectral structure of the resulting operator $\mathscr{L}$. Its eigenvectors are too singular to be realized as honest measures on path space, and we therefore develop a generalized spectral theory within the framework of white noise analysis (Hida calculus). The eigenvectors of $\mathscr{L}$ are realized as Hida distributions, satisfying $\mathscr{L} U=\lambda U$ in the weak sense. This analysis yields structural results such as a spectral gap and a diagonal-concentration property of the eigenvectors. Moreover, we identify a family $\{\mathfrak{U}_n\}_{n \geq 0}$ of eigenvectors with eigenvalues $\lambda_n = 2^{1-n/2}$, consisting of Wick polynomials of white noise formally expressed as $\mathfrak{U}_n = \int_0^1 {:}\dot W(t)^n{:}\, dt$, and rigorously constructed as Hida distributions. We then use this spectral structure to uncover a finer, second layer of universality in the Donsker invariance principle: not only is the convergence of random walks towards the Brownian scaling limit universal, but the entire hierarchy of leading corrections to the Brownian limit is universal as well, governed by the eigenpairs $(\lambda_n, \mathfrak{U}_n)$. We also show, at a formal level, that the framework developed here extends to Gibbs-type perturbations of the Brownian fixed point, in the spirit of self-interacting quantum field theories. In particular, we recover the standard irrelevant/marginal/relevant classification, usually obtained in the physics literature by power-counting, solely from the spectral analysis of $\mathscr{L}$.
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Probability

Generic Strong Well-Posedness for McKean–Vlasov SDEs with Jumps in a Krylov-Stable Coefficient Space

We prove that strong well-posedness is generic for McKean–Vlasov stochastic differential equations with jumps in a complete coefficient space that allows genuinely discontinuous state dependence. For every $T>0$, there exists a dense residual subset $\mathfrak R_T$, independent of the initial state, such that every coefficient $a\in\mathfrak R_T$ generates a unique strong solution for every deterministic initial condition $x\in\mathbb R^d$. Moreover, the solution map $x\mapsto X^{a,x}$ is continuous in $\mathcal S_T^2$, and every approximation by spatially Lipschitz coefficients converges locally uniformly in $x$ to the same canonical solution family. The coefficients are uniformly bounded, uniformly non-degenerate in the diffusion component, and Lipschitz continuous in the law with respect to the $2$-Wasserstein distance, while their state dependence may be merely measurable. The ambient space is obtained by completing a spatially Lipschitz core under a Krylov-stable metric based on local $L^{2(d+1)}$ coefficient errors. A stopped conditional Krylov–Melnikov occupation estimate converts convergence in this metric into occupation convergence along non-degenerate Itô–Lévy trajectories. The key probabilistic ingredient is a set-valued stability theorem: near a core coefficient, every strong solution of every nearby solvable equation remains close to the unique core solution, without any uniqueness assumption on the nearby equation. Together with closedness of the strong-solution relation, this permits a Baire-category argument on the completed coefficient space. We also give an intrinsic spatial-translation criterion showing that the completion contains natural classes with essential spatial discontinuities. A projective-limit argument yields the corresponding global-time generic well-posedness result.
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Probability

Càdlàg Solutions to Backward Stochastic Dynamics featuring Oblique Subgradients and driven by Martingale Noise

The present study improves the qualitative analysis of backward stochastic variational dynamics on a general complete filtered probability space, considered in the spirit of Liang, Lyons and Qian (2011). Our primary objective is to overcome a substantial limitation in the study of Bensoussan, Li and Yam (2018), where the boundedness condition imposed on the multivalued subdifferential operator excludes standard obstacle-type constraints and indicator functions of convex sets. We prove the existence and uniqueness of a strong càdlàg solution under the natural assumption that the driving proper lower semicontinuous convex function is merely bounded from below by an affine/quadratic function. Furthermore, we incorporate an oblique reflection governed by a time-dependent, uniformly positive definite symmetric matrix, in the spirit of the pioneering results of Gassous, Răşcanu and Rotenstein (2012, 2015).
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.FA

Rough paths below the Young threshold: an exact scale calculus and the locality phase transition at one quarter

Since Young's 1936 theorem, irregular integration has been organized around the threshold 1/2: above it the path determines the integral, while below it higher-order data are needed. For fractional Brownian motion, H = 1/4 is the threshold for the canonical Gaussian enhancement, although geometric rough lifts exist for every H > 0. We prove that H = 1/4 is instead the exact threshold for measurable locality. For d-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with independent components, d at least 2, if 0 < H <= 1/4, no positive-measure Borel set supports even one finite off-diagonal second-level coordinate satisfying Chen's relation and measurable interval by interval from path increments. No moment, Holder, geometricity, stationarity, or scaling assumption is imposed. If 1/4 < H <= 1/2, every full-law local rough-path lift in the standard Holder range is automatically square-integrable and hence classified without an assumed L2 condition; for H > 1/2, every finite-step enhancement with natural graded Holder bounds is uniquely the Young signature. We also introduce an exact scale calculus below classical differentiability. Matched dyadic differences recover normalized derivatives with sharp O(epsilon^2) error, exact localized inversion, and lossless reconstruction. Multiplication and smooth functional calculus transport exactly to scale coordinates, while the corona quotient yields an exact universal derivation. Reinserting the Holder amplitude and using Fourier-normal ordering produces strong geometric lifts for every positive input regularity and every lower rough exponent, with explicit ultraviolet rates and stability. Thus rough lifts exist below one quarter, but no measurable lift on a positive-measure domain can be interval-local there. The results separate existence from local recoverability and show that nondifferentiability does not destroy exact differential information.
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Probability

A Gamma envelope and sharp moment inequalities for Gaussian quadratic forms

We study extremal absolute central moments of Gaussian quadratic forms under a fixed Frobenius norm. For a nonzero real symmetric matrix $M$ and $G\sim N(0,I_n)$, we construct an explicit centered difference of Gamma variables with the same mean, variance, and third centered moment as $G^{\mathsf T}MG-\operatorname{tr}M$. After normalization, replacing the quadratic form by this Gamma difference does not decrease $\mathbb{E} f$ for every $C^2$ test function $f$ such that $f''$ is convex and $f$, $f'$, and $f''$ have polynomial growth. In particular, it gives an explicit upper bound for every absolute moment of order $p\ge3$. We then prove that, for every $p\ge4$, this bound is maximized by the centered square $g^2-1$ of a single standard Gaussian variable $g$. The resulting sharp inequality is \[ \bigl\|G^{\mathsf T}MG-\operatorname{tr}M\bigr\|_p \le \|g^2-1\|_p\,\|M\|_{\mathrm F}, \] with equality if and only if $M$ has rank one.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST

A spectral gap for Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm with a uniformly randomized step size

Let $\pi(\mathrm{d} x)\propto e^{-U(x)}\, \mathrm{d} x$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, where $U$ is continuously differentiable and $m$-strongly convex with a globally $L$-Lipschitz gradient, $0<m\leq L<\infty$, and $\kappa=L/m$. Fixed-step Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) has known warm-start mixing-time upper bounds of order $\kappa\sqrt d$, up to logarithmic factors. A spectral-gap lower bound at the corresponding scale $(\kappa \sqrt{d})^{-1}$ would give an upper bound of order $\kappa \sqrt{d}$ on the Monte Carlo asymptotic variance relative to independent sampling, uniformly over all square-integrable functions. However, when $\kappa$ is bounded away from~1, the best fixed-step spectral gap that can be guaranteed uniformly over this target class is at most of order $\max\{\log(\kappa d)/(\kappa d), e^{-cd}\}$ for some positive universal constant~$c$. We show that uniform randomization of the step size improves this worst-case guarantee. At each iteration, the algorithm draws $h\sim\operatorname{Unif}(0,H)$ and performs one ordinary MALA transition. Choosing $H$ of order $[L\sqrt{d(1+\log d+\log\kappa)}]^{-1}$ yields a right spectral-gap lower bound of order \[ \frac{1}{\kappa\sqrt{d(1+\log d+\log\kappa)}}, \] uniformly over the target class. Thus, given $\kappa > 1$, for all square-integrable functions, the ratio of the Monte Carlo asymptotic variance relative to independence sampling has an upper bound of order $\sqrt{d \log d}$. This contrasts with fixed-MALA, where the ratio can be as bad as $d/\log d$ in thew worst-case scenario. The spectral gap also gives geometric convergence of the lazy kernel from every initial density in $L^2(\pi)$, central limit theorems, and nonstationary mean-square error bounds. This work was developed with substantial assistance from ChatGPT.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST

Lehmer Transform

The Lehmer transform encodes a positive dataset as a single analytic curve, the ratio of its power sums at consecutive orders read as a function of the order. As the order sweeps the real line the curve generates every location statistic between the sample extremes, and its logarithm is the unit increment of the free energy of an exponentially tilted ensemble; the statistical theory of the curve flows from that identity. The slope of the curve is a Jeffreys divergence, the arithmetic-geometric gap is a relative entropy, and multiplicativity over independent factors makes deconvolution of multiplicative noise a pointwise division. A quantitative rigidity theorem locates the frontier of identifiability at geometric growth of the curve, with resonant log-periodic families of distinct laws sharing one curve beyond it. The empirical curve is an exact re-coordinatization of the order statistic, hence minimal sufficient, and its influence function, exact leading bias and limit theory are developed in full. At heavy tails the curve undergoes a phase transition whose two knees, one unit apart, sit at the tail index and its unit shift, a whole-sample diagnostic complementing threshold-based estimators.
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Friday 4 September

Probability · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Statistical Inference for Adversarial Training: Central Limit Theorems via Optimal Transport

The purpose of this paper is to rigorously quantify the statistical and learning-theoretic properties of adversarial training models for classification. Equivalently, we establish the statistical properties of empirical optimal partial transport. Precisely, first we provide two types of central limit theorems (CLT): CLT centered at the expected empirical value, and CLT centered at the population one with smoothing. These results are based on the uniqueness of optimal potential for various equivalent optimal transport formulations, and the empirical process theory argument. For the binary setting, we indeed prove the uniqueness of optimal potential by leveraging the connection between optimal partial transport and the derived multi-marginal optimal transport formula. As byproducts, we also obtain the stability of a saddle point of the adversarial training model, and the sample complexity and concentration probability of the generalization error.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cs.IT

Moments of crosscorrelation demerit factors of binary sequences

Families of sequences with low mutual aperiodic crosscorrelation assist the design of systems for multi-user asynchronous communications and multiple-input multiple-output radar. The crosscorrelation demerit factor of a pair of sequences is the sum of the squared magnitudes of their crosscorrelation values at every shift when the sequences are normalized to unit Euclidean norm, and the merit factor is the reciprocal of the demerit factor. For each positive integer $\ell$, we endow the $2^{2 \ell}$ pairs of binary sequences of length $\ell$ with uniform probability measure and study the distribution of their crosscorrelation demerit factors. Sarwate showed that the mean value is always $1$ regardless of length $\ell$. We develop a method for finding an exact formula for the $p$th central moment (for any positive integer $p$) as a function of $\ell$. Formulae for the variance and third central moment ($p=2$ and $3$) are then obtained by hand calculations, while the fourth through sixth central moments are obtained by computer-assisted calculations. Our theory also shows that all the central moments must be strictly positive for $p\geq 2$ and $\ell \geq 3$.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.DS

Uniform in time propagation of chaos for noisy mean-field coupled maps

We study discrete-time $N$-dimensional mean-field systems on the torus subject to additive noise whose probability density is bounded away from zero. Given a Lipschitz one-particle map and interaction term, we prove that, if the lower bound on the noise density is sufficiently large, the $N$-dimensional transfer operator $\mathcal P_N$ preserves a dimension-independent class of sub-Gaussian probability measures. Moreover, $\mathcal P_N$ is a one-step contraction in the Dobrushin-Wasserstein distance and therefore admits a unique invariant measure $\rho_N$, which is itself sub-Gaussian. Under the same condition on the noise strength, we show that the associated self-consistent transfer operator is a one-step contraction in Wasserstein distance and hence admits a unique fixed point $\rho$. We further prove, using these contraction estimates, that $\mathcal P_N$ preserves an $O(N^{-1/2})$ neighbourhood of the product measure $\rho^{\otimes N}$ in the Dobrushin-Wasserstein metric, and in particular that $\rho_N$ belongs to this neighbourhood. Finally, we establish uniform-in-time propagation of chaos in the Dobrushin-Wasserstein metric and, under the additional assumption that the noise density is of bounded variation, in total variation for every fixed-dimensional marginal.
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Probability

Optimal mixing of the systematic scan dynamics via approximate tensorization of entropy

We study the mixing time of the systematic scan dynamics for high-dimensional discrete distributions. This Markov chain updates coordinates sequentially according to a fixed predetermined order, in contrast to the Glauber dynamics that updates coordinates selected uniformly at random. The systematic scan is often favored in practice because it exhibits strong empirical performance, but its theoretical analysis remains far less developed than that of Glauber dynamics. We take a step toward addressing this imbalance by showing that two standard functional notions of weak dependence between the coordinates of the distribution provide strong convergence guarantees for the systematic scan dynamics. First, we show that approximate tensorization of entropy implies optimal $O(\log n)$ mixing time for every scan order under standard marginal, connectivity, and bounded interaction degree assumptions about the distribution. Second, we show that approximate tensorization of variance yields a constant-factor contraction of the variance functional per scan, which in turn implies an optimal $O(1)$ relaxation time for the natural additive and multiplicative reversibilizations of the systematic scan dynamics. Compared with our entropy result, the variance bound improves the dependence on the maximum interaction degree from exponential to quadratic and requires weaker assumptions on the distribution. As concrete applications of our results, we establish optimal $O(\log n)$ mixing of the systematic scan dynamics for bounded-degree antiferromagnetic two-spin systems in the tree-uniqueness region and for the ferromagnetic $q$-state Potts model on square boxes in $\mathbb{Z}^2$ throughout its subcritical regime.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.FA

Can one feel the existence of a non-trivial invariant measure?

It is shown that a bounded linear map on a complex separable Hilbert space with non-trivial invariant probability measures doesn't have to possess eigenvalues. This resolves a question indicated by Flytzanis in 1995 and concretely asked by Grivaux–López-Martínez from 2023 resp. Grivaux–Matheron–Menet from 2021. Still, as a positive result, we prove that every bounded linear operator on a separable complex Banach space for which a non-fixing invariant probability measure exists, has to have some approximate point spectrum on the unit circle minus $1$.
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