Probability · Cross-listed from math.FA
On high probability of universal approximation in random basis expansions with non-continuous weight sampling
John E. Darges
Random basis expansion (RBE) search the span of a randomly sampled basis to find the best approximation of a target function. They are equivalent to single layer neural networks where the hidden layer weights are chosen randomly. Universal approximation properties have been established for RBEs using continuous weight sampling distributions and real-valued activation functions. Our results extend the universal approximation property to RBEs that use non-continuous weight distributions with dense support in the weight space and that use complex-valued activation functions. The result shows such random bases have the universal approximation property with arbitrarily high probability.
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Probability
Asymptotic Behavior of Path Functionals for Vector-Valued Gaussian Processes at High Levels
Pavel Ievlev, Timofei Shashkov and Svyatoslav Novikov
We study precise asymptotics for high-level exceedance probabilities of path functionals of continuous vector-valued Gaussian processes. The probabilities have the form $$ \mathbb{P}\{\Gamma_{[0,T]}(\check{\boldsymbol{u}}(\boldsymbol{X}-u\boldsymbol{b}))>L_u\}, \qquad u\to\infty, $$ where $\boldsymbol{X}$ is a centered $\mathbb R^d$-valued Gaussian process and $\Gamma$ belongs to a broad class satisfying natural monotonicity, scaling, no-atom, and continuity assumptions. The class covers classical sojourn times, Choquet-type sojourn integrals, area-under-the-curve functionals, and, through a local-footprint extension, shrinking-window Parisian persistence functionals. We obtain exact asymptotics in the stationary case and in the non-stationary case when the inverse generalized variance has a unique minimizer at the boundary point. The non-stationary
theorem covers the regimes $\alpha<\beta$, $\alpha=\beta$, and $\alpha>\beta$, which lead respectively to Pickands-type, Piterbarg-type, and deterministic limiting constants. We also derive conditional limit laws for the first exceedance time. The main claims are stated in the body of the paper, while the proofs and auxiliary estimates are collected in the appendices.
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Probability
The Site Frequency Spectrum in an Exponentially Growing Population with Selection
Armaan Ahmed, Jasmine Foo, Einar Gunnarsson et al. (+1 more)
We consider a supercritical two-type continuous-time linear birth-death process with mutation and selection, in which wild-type individuals give rise to mutant offspring with a larger net growth rate $\lambda_1$. In this setting, we investigate a component of the site frequency spectrum (SFS), describing the number of driver mutations present at any given frequency in the population. We establish asymptotic convergence results at large times and detection sizes. We examine three distinct regions of the SFS: (1) the small frequency region occupied by clones of size $\mathcal{O}(1)$, (2) the intermediate frequency region occupied by clones of size $1\ll j(t)\ll \exp(\lambda_1 t)$, and (3) the large frequency region occupied by clones of size at least $\exp(\lambda_1 t).$ We obtain strong laws of large numbers for the driver SFS in the small- and large-frequency regions by constructing suitable $L^2$-approximations. In the intermediate frequency region, we identify a cutoff frequency $j(t)$ growing with time at which there are an order-one number of mutant clones. At this frequency, we obtain a Poisson convergence
theorem as $t\to\infty$. Overall, our results provide quantitative insights into how selection shapes the site frequency spectrum both at small and large frequencies, which can in principle be leveraged to construct
estimators of relevant evolutionary parameters. As an example of this, we propose and show asymptotic consistency of a new
estimator of the fitness increase.
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All authors Armaan Ahmed, Jasmine Foo, Einar Gunnarsson, Kevin Leder
Probability · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Scaling Limits of Constant-Stepsize SGD at Flat Minima
Jingyi Zhang, Cheng Mao and Debankur Mukherjee
For
stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a constant stepsize $\alpha$, the invariant law of the iterates, centered at a minimizer, describes the behavior of the
algorithm over long time horizons. In the strongly convex case, this invariant law has the familiar $\sqrt{\alpha}$ scaling and a Gaussian limit as $\alpha\downarrow 0$. We show that this behavior changes fundamentally for convex objectives $H$ with flat minima and (sub)quadratic tails. More specifically, we study SGD with Markovian noise generated by a contractive driving chain. For every sufficiently small constant stepsize $\alpha$, we prove existence, uniqueness, and
geometric convergence to an augmented invariant law in a Wasserstein distance induced by an $\alpha$-dependent metric. When the minimizer $x_\star$ has local flatness exponent $m\ge2$, meaning that $\nabla^2 H(x)\asymp \lVert x-x_\star\rVert^{m-2} I_d$ as $x\to x_\star$, we obtain a contraction bound with factor $1-c\alpha^{m-1}$, where $c>0$ is a constant. This recovers the factor $1-c\alpha$ in the quadratic case $m=2$. We then analyze the small-stepsize scaling limit. We show that the invariant law concentrates on the scale $\alpha^{1/m}$ and that the rescaled iterates converge weakly to the stationary distribution of the
stochastic differential equation $$ dY_t=-h_0(Y_t)\,dt+\Sigma^{1/2}\,dB_t , $$ where $h_0$ is the limiting drift at the minimizer and $\Sigma$ denotes the asymptotic covariance. This recovers the Gaussian limit when $m=2$ and gives generally non-Gaussian stationary limits in the flat case $m>2$. Finally, we give corresponding results for coordinate-separable objectives with unequal flatness exponents.
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Probability
The Memoryless Best-Choice Problem
Alexander Gnedin and Marcos C. S. Carreira
A random sequence sampled from a known continuous distribution is observed with the objective to choose an item with the overall rank one. A rejected item cannot be recalled and is immediately erased from the
memory. Under this
memory constraint, the choice problem is not amenable to recursive methods of optimal stopping and becomes a global optimisation task. We focus on a heavy-traffic form of the problem with infinitely many choice opportunities, which we state in terms of a planar Poisson process (PPP).
Symmetries of the PPP are used to derive basic structural properties of the optimal stopping rule, including the balance at the boundary equation, and two key integral identities. Throughout, we make throrough comparison to the classic full-information counterpart of the problem, revisiting both discrete- and continuous-time models. The optimal value, stopping rule and other characteristics of the problem are determined analytically and approximated numerically with high precision.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.AP
Fluctuation dynamics in randomly advected Navier-Stokes equations below critical scaling
Arnaud Debussche and Martina Hofmanová
We study randomly advected incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, where the advecting field is a mean-zero, divergence-free, space-time stationary velocity field with smooth order-one correlations. We introduce a two-parameter family of models in which the advection is accelerated on a fast temporal scale $\varepsilon^2$ and has spatial correlation length $\delta$; the critical regime $\varepsilon = \delta$ corresponds to the natural parabolic scaling of the Navier-Stokes equation. In the full subcritical regime $\varepsilon = o (\delta)$, we prove a law of large numbers in dimensions $d = 2, 3$: the solutions converge to a deterministic Navier–Stokes system with an enhanced
diffusion coefficient given by a Green-Kubo formula. In two space dimensions, under the slightly stronger assumption $\varepsilon = o (\delta^{1 + \iota})$ for some $\iota > 0$, we identify the leading-order fluctuations: after subtracting deterministic macroscopic corrections satisfying a nonlinear system of Navier-Stokes type, the rescaled fluctuations converge to a Gaussian field solving a linearized Navier-Stokes equation driven by multiplicative space-time white noise.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST
Dimension-invariant uniform consistency of the empirical spatial distribution function and its associated spatial depth estimator
Felix Gnettner, Hyemin Yeon and Piotr Kokoszka
We provide a proof that the empirical spatial distribution
estimator in $\mathbb R^d$ as well as the corresponding plug-in
estimator of the spatial depth are uniformly $L^1$-consistent. The consistency rate only depends on the sample size $n$, not on the dimension $d$ or any tuning or regularization parameters. This is a rare property. The result of this note originates from a conversation with ChatGPT 5.4 Pro as part of some of our own earlier experiments on its mathematical
reasoning capabilities.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.DS
Pointwise Convergence of Ergodic Averages Along Integer Cantor Sets
Félix Brokering Pinilla, Alex Iosevich and Ben Krause
Let $d \geq 3$, \[ D \subsetneq \{ 0,1,\dots,d-1\}, \qquad |D| \geq 2, \ 0 \in D \] be a finite alphabet, and define the integer Cantor set \begin{align} \mathcal{C} := \mathcal{C}_{D} := \bigcup_{J \geq 0} \Big\{ \sum_{j =0}^J a_j d^j : a_j \in D \Big\}. \end{align} We prove that for any $\sigma$-finite measure-preserving system, $(X,\mu,T)$, and any $f \in L^p(X)$, $2\leq p<\infty$, the ergodic averages \begin{align} \frac{1}{|\mathcal{C}_N|} \sum_{n \in \mathcal{C}_N } f(T^n x), \qquad \mathcal{C}_N := \mathcal{C} \cap \{1,2,\dots,N \} \end{align} converge $\mu$-almost everywhere. By rescaling, this allows us to resolve the question of lacunary differentiation of Cantor measures at self-similar scales: if \begin{align} \mathcal{C}' := \Big\{ \sum_{j \geq 1} a_j d^{-j} : a_j \in D \Big\} \subset [0,1] \end{align} is a real-variable Cantor set, and $\nu$ denotes its natural measure, then we prove that \begin{align} \lim_{k \to \infty} \int f(x-d^{-k} t) \ d\nu(t) = f(x) \end{align} Lebesgue almost-everywhere for any $f \in L^2_{\text{loc}}(\mathbb{R})$.
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Probability · Cross-listed from stat.ME
Dynamic models with $p$ parameters are identified by $2p+1$ random features
Michael Wieck-Sosa and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
A foundational principle in nonlinear dynamics is that the structure of a dynamical system can be recovered from a small number of generic measurements or coordinates. We develop an analogous principle for the identification of dynamic models for time series with noise, which builds on previous identification results for noiseless dynamical systems. The noise is allowed to be non-iid, non-Gaussian, and dependent on the state. Our results cover noisily observed differential equations and discrete-time dynamical systems, as well as
stochastic models with process noise. We illustrate the utility of this identification principle using a Lorenz-63 model and a Hénon map model, both with observational noise.
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Probability
On large networks of integrate-and-fire neurons with short-term synaptic plasticity
Quentin Cormier, Eva Löcherbach and Valentin Schmutz
This work studies the mean-field limit of large networks of interacting
stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF)
neurons subject to short-term synaptic depression (STD). The macroscopic dynamics of this system is governed by a two-dimensional, non-linear McKean-Vlasov equation that couples the
evolution of the
neurons' membrane potentials with a synaptic depression variable. We investigate the long-time behavior of this limit system. To this end, we introduce an auxiliary linearized Markov process by freezing the interaction non-linearity to a constant. By exploiting the regeneration of the membrane potential at spike times, we are able to explicitly compute the conditional expectation of the synaptic depression variable, conditionally on the potential value, under the invariant measure of this two-dimensional linear process. This is a crucial ingredient to study time-dependent local perturbations thereof. As a consequence we are able to identify an analytic criterion guaranteeing the local stability of any invariant probability measure of the fully non-linear system. This stability criterion is formulated in terms of the zeros of the Laplace transform of a specific linear response function. Finally, we provide numerical examples demonstrating that the two-dimensional framework induces a richer spectrum of long-time dynamics than purely one-dimensional models. For example, synaptic depression can lead to low-frequency oscillations around a unique, unstable invariant measure where the oscillations are much slower than the
neurons' firing rates.
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Probability
Canonical Mandelbrot Cascades on Curves Are Rajchman
Yin Cai, Guozheng Cheng, Xiang Fang et al. (+3 more)
We settle the Rajchman problem for canonical scalar dyadic Mandelbrot cascades at the minimal Kahane–Peyrière integrability threshold. If $\mu$ is the cascade on $[0,1]$, then $\widehat{\mu}(\xi)\to 0$ as $|\xi|\to\infty$, almost surely on non-extinction. For every fixed nondegenerate $C^2$ embedded arc $\gamma:[0,1]\to\mathbb{R}^2$, the pushforward $\gamma_\#\mu$ is likewise Rajchman almost surely on non-extinction. The analogous conclusion holds for the scalar cascade on the parameter circle pushed forward by any fixed nondegenerate $C^2$ Jordan curve. No moment condition of order strictly greater than one is imposed; in particular, the results include the regime $\mathbb{E}[W^q]=\infty$ for every $q>1$. The proof combines a spine-based lower-deviation principle, adaptive terminal approximation, and predictable capping to obtain almost-sure estimates uniform over large frequency annuli without higher moments. For curved pushforwards, an endpoint-safe phase decomposition controls direction-dependent stationary regions, including those meeting the endpoints of an arc, and couples the
geometric and probabilistic arguments through a common dyadic kernel. Combined with the exact
Fourier-dimension formulas for the corresponding models, the
theorems show that Rajchman decay persists at zero
Fourier dimension.
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All authors Yin Cai, Guozheng Cheng, Xiang Fang, Menghan Li, Hongdou Qu, Chengbo Xiao
Probability
Uniqueness for nonlinear Fokker-Planck equations with general diffusion terms and their associated nonlinear Markov processes
Viorel Barbu, Yuqi Li and Michael Röckner
This work is concerned with the uniqueness of distributional solutions to nonlinear Fokker-Planck equations with non-diagonal
diffusion terms of type \begin{equation} u_{t}-\sum_{i,j=1}^{d} D^{2}_{ij}(a_{ij}(x)\beta(x,u))+ \text{div}(b(x,u)u)=0 \quad \text{in}\; (0, \infty) \times \mathbb{R}^{d} ,\notag \end{equation} with initial condition $u(0,x)\equiv u_{0}(x)$, where $a_{ij}$, $\beta$, and $b$ are suitable functions. Under suitable assumptions, this equation generates a continuous contraction semigroup $S(t): L^{1}(\mathbb{R}^{d}) \rightarrow L^{1}(\mathbb{R}^{d})$, and $u(t)=S(t)u_{0}$ is a mild solution to the equation. Our main contribution is to prove that this mild solution is unique in the much larger class of distributional solutions. This extends previous uniqueness results for the diagonal (also called isotropic)
diffusion case $a_{ij} \equiv \delta_{ij}$. Another key analytical result of this paper is the uniqueness for distributional solutions of the associated linearized equation. As a main application, we prove weak uniqueness for the corresponding McKean-Vlasov SDEs. Moreover, we prove that, the probabilistically weak solution to the McKean-Vlasov SDEs is also the unique probabilistically strong solution. Furthermore, we establish a new $L^{\infty}$ estimate for mild solutions starting from data in $L^{1}\cap L^{\infty}$ and this estimate is used in the construction of nonlinear Markov processes. Finally, we prove that the path laws of the solutions to the McKean-Vlasov SDEs form a nonlinear Markov process in the sense of McKean.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.AP
On the diffusive-mean field limit of a kinetic weakly interacting particle system
Raphaël Gastaldello, Grigorios A. Pavliotis, Gabriel Stoltz et al. (+1 more)
We study the joint diffusive-mean field limit for a system of weakly interacting kinetic Langevin dynamics, extending the results of Delgadino, Gvalani and Pavliotis (Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal., 2021) to the hypoelliptic/hypocoercive case. We show that, in the absence of phase transitions, the two limits commute, and we calculate the covariance
matrix of the limiting Brownian motion using the Green-Kubo/Kipnis-Varadhan formula. However, at low temperatures, and in the presence of phase transitions, the two limits may not commute. We demonstrate our findings by providing a detailed analysis of the diffusive-mean field limit for the $O(2)$ model in a
magnetic field. Our analysis is based on the systematic use of recently developed hypocoercivity techniques, together with an appropriate linearization of the mean field McKean-Vlasov-Fokker-Planck partial differential equation.
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All authors Raphaël Gastaldello, Grigorios A. Pavliotis, Gabriel Stoltz, Urbain Vaes
Probability
Existence of $q$-Bass martingales in the semidiscrete setting
Beatrice Acciaio and Antonio Marini
The class of $q$-Bass martingales provides a natural answer to a central question in martingale optimal transport: how to construct martingales with prescribed initial and terminal marginals whose transition kernel remains as close as possible to a given reference measure $q$. We prove the existence of $q$-Bass martingales when the initial marginal is supported on finitely many atoms, and establish uniqueness, up to an additive translation constant, of the associated Bass measure. Our approach is
geometric and relies on the analysis of a suitable parametrization of convex polygonal chains.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.DG
Nonnegative Bakry–Émery Curvature on Bounded-Degree Graphs Implies Volume Doubling and Poincaré Inequalities
Qi Guo, Xueping Huang and Yi C. Huang
We prove that every connected simple graph of bounded degree satisfying the classical dimension-free Bakry–Émery condition $\mathrm{CD}(0,\infty)$ for the unnormalised
Laplacian is volume doubling and supports, at all integer graph scales, a scale-invariant $L^2$-Poincaré inequality with dilation two, with constants depending only on the maximum degree. This settles the
polynomial-growth
conjecture of Cushing, Liu, and Peyerimhoff in a stronger form. The main novelty is a dimension-free adaptation of the graph-theoretic modified nonlinear heat-flow method introduced by Münch and extended to infinite weighted graphs by Pajot and Russ: point-mass consequences of $\Gamma_2\geq0$ and positive-resolvent smoothing replace any global $\mathrm{CD}(0,n)$ reduction, while diffusive exit-time control and finite-volume localisation yield the Poincaré inequality.
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