Probability · Cross-listed from math-ph
Exact topology of conservative multiplicative cascades: An ultrametric transfer-operator genus
Cristiano G. Sabiu
The multiplicative cascade is a well-known method for generating random fields that are both genuinely non-Gaussian and scale invariant. Its one-point and scaling statistics, namely the multifractal spectra $\tau(q)$, $D_q$, and $f(\alpha)$, are known exactly; however, its
geometric and topological measures are not. In this work, we show that the topological structures of a conservative (microcanonical) random permutation cascade can be precisely predicted. We compute the digital (cubical) Euler characteristic, or genus, of the level-$j$ excursion set of the two-dimensional cascade in closed form, using a transfer operator on the cascade's $b$-ary tree closed by its ultrametric structure and a conservative without-replacement sibling split. The result requires no Monte Carlo and matches simulated realizations with a maximum residual of $\sim\!10^{-4}$ in the Euler density, a controlled discretization artifact of the atomic measure. We tie the genus scaling analytically to the multifractal spectrum, and show that for a
geometric ladder of weights the genus is exactly self-similar under the multifractal-width dial. The construction uses the tree-sum cumulant machinery of Greiner et al. (Phys. Rev. E 58, 554, 1998), specialized to topological functionals; the conservative split carries the microcanonical fingerprint $\mathrm{Cov}(\ln w_a,\ln w_b)/\mathrm{Var}(\ln w)=-1/(n-1)$ that distinguishes it from canonical and lognormal cascades. The cascade is the multiplicative counterpart of the Rayleigh–Lévy flight and a controlled
benchmark for the morphology of strongly non-Gaussian fields.
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Probability
Models for species evolution with random deaths
Peter Braunsteins and Joseph Rolfe
We consider three discrete-time models for species
evolution. In all three models, at each time step $n$, with probability $p$, a species is born with an independent $\text{Uniform}[0,1]$ fitness value and, with probability $1-p$, a species is killed. The mechanism for selecting which species to kill when a death occurs distinguishes the three models: in the first model, the least fit species is always killed; in the second model, with probability $r$, the least fit species is killed and, with probability $1-r$, a species chosen uniformly from the population is killed; in the third model, with probability $r$, the least fit species is killed and, with probability $1-r$, the species with the largest fitness less than an independent $\text{Uniform}[0,1]$ outcome is killed. We establish asymptotic results as $n \to \infty$ for the three models. These results demonstrate that small changes to the death mechanism of the model can lead to vastly different asymptotic behaviour. To prove our results we develop a novel approach that relies on coupling arguments and mean-field limits.
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Probability
Existence and vanishing noise limit of measure attractors for McKean-Vlasov $p$-Laplacian lattice systems with delay driven by Lévy noise
Zhang Chen, Xiaoxiao Sun and Bixiang Wang
This paper is concerned with the existence and the limiting behavior of measure attractors of distribution laws of the solution segment process for the McKean-Vlasov
stochastic $p$-Laplace
lattice system with time delay driven by Lévy noise. The nonlinear drift and
diffusion terms are allowed to have superlinear growth. Due to time delay, the Skorohod metric space is employed to describe the trajectories of the solutions with jumps. We first prove the existence and uniqueness of càdlàg solutions for the
lattice system, and then define a non-autonomous cocycle acting on the Borel probability measures in the Skorohod space. This cocycle is continuous in bounded subsets of the space of probability measures only when time is sufficiently large. We then prove the existence of pullback absorbing sets and the asymptotic compactness of the cocycle as well as the existence and uniqueness of pullback measure attractors. We finally investigate the limiting behavior of measure attractors of the
lattice system as the noise intensity approaches zero, and establish the optimal convergence rate of singleton measure attractors in the Wasserstein distance of order $\theta$.
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Probability
Full replica symmetry breaking in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model
Patrick Lopatto
We prove that, at zero external field and for every inverse temperature $\beta>1$, the Parisi measure of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model is supported on an interval $[0,q_\beta]$, with a smooth density on $(0,q_\beta)$ and an atom at $q_\beta$. The primary difficulty is to exclude gaps in the support. On such a gap, the optimality conditions for the Parisi measure would force the second derivative of the associated self-consistency function $\Gamma$ to cross zero downward. We establish that it can only cross upward by showing that at a zero of $\Gamma''$, the derivative $\Gamma'''$ is a positive linear combination of two nonnegative covariances, one of which is strictly positive.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST
A uniform relative deviation inequality for VC-subgraph classes
François Portier
We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for classes of functions whose complexity is characterized through subgraphs. The inequality is non-asymptotic, involves explicit constants, and features a relative normalization by the probability level. Applied to kernel density estimation, it produces a location and bandwidth-adaptive error bound between the
estimator and the smoothed density, holding simultaneously over all points on the real line and all positive bandwidths. The proof is elementary, combining a new symmetrization principle, which incorporates the relative normalization, with the maximal sub-Gaussian inequality, and requires neither concentration nor
entropy-integral arguments. When specialized to classes of sets, our technique improves the constants in the classical Vapnik-Chervonenkis inequality with relative deviation of Anthony and Shawe-Taylor (1993), reducing the factor 4 S A (2n) to S A (2n) in the right-tail inequality and to 3 S A (2n) in the left-tail inequality.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.AP
A stochastic Fokker–Planck equation for the mean-field limit of a population of noisy integrate-and-fire neurons
Ben Hambly, Aldaïr Petronilia, Christoph Reisinger et al. (+1 more)
We study a densely connected system of excitatory integrate-and-fire
neurons which are subject to common noise. The system incorporates a gradual transmission of action potentials and captures the re- and hyperpolarization phases through a random refractory period followed by a reset to a randomized level below the rest potential. As the number of
neurons tends to infinity, we show that there is weak convergence to a unique membrane potential density governed by a
stochastic Fokker–Planck equation with a well-defined spike transmission rate. The latter is driven by the mean cumulative spike count, which is non-differentiable but shown to satisfy a generalized flux condition. We obtain the uniqueness of the Fokker–Planck equation from energy estimates in the dual of the first Sobolev space. Finally, we give a conditional McKean–Vlasov representation of the membrane potential density as the law of a representative
neuron given the common noise.
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All authors Ben Hambly, Aldaïr Petronilia, Christoph Reisinger, Andreas Søjmark
Probability
Phase transition for weakly interacting focusing Gibbs measures with harmonic potential
Damiano Greco and Yuzhao Wang
In this paper, we study the Gibbs measures on Euclidean spaces associated to the focusing nonlinear Schrödinger equation with harmonic potential and critical non linearity whose coupling constant tends to 0, a question initially posed by Brydges-Slade (1996) for the $\Phi^4_2$-model on $\mathbb{T}^2$. In dimension one and in the higher dimensional cases (with radial assumption), we establish a critical threshold below which the frequency-truncated measures converge to the base Gaussian measure (possibly with a renormalized $L^2$ cut-off) while, in the supercritical regime, we prove non-convergence of the frequency-truncated measures, even up to a subsequence.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math-ph
On The Eigenvalue Rigidity of the Laguerre Unitary Ensemble
Chenhao Lu and Xiaolu Yue
In this paper, we establish an optimal global rigidity estimate for the
eigenvalues of the Laguerre
unitary ensemble. Using the central limit
theorem, we first construct a random measure via the
eigenvalue counting function and then prove its convergence to a Gaussian multiplicative chaos measure, which yields the desired rigidity result. To prove this convergence, we apply a sufficient condition due to Claeys et al.[7] and carry out an asymptotic analysis of the corresponding exponential moments.
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Probability · Cross-listed from q-bio.PE
Stochastic individual-bases models
Anton Bovier and Anna Kraut
These are lecture notes for an advanced topics course in the master's programme at Bonn University. It aims to give a concise review of some of the work that has been done around the topic of adaptive dynamics from a rigorous
stochastic point of view over the last 25 years and to make this area accessible to students with a good knowledge of probability in general, and the theory of Markov processes in particular. Our emphasis is on the issue of emerging scaling limits, where scaling parameters are time, population size, mutation rates, and mutation step size. These allow to exhibit within a fairly simple class of models a variety of biologically relevant phenomena. These notes are organised in three parts. Part 1 presents some historical background as well as the mathematical setting and main tools. Part 2 is the core of the notes and discusses the various scaling regimes and scaling limits. Part 3 looks at some extensions on the basic model, notably diploid models, phenotypic plasticity, and effects of environmental changes over time.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.CV
Asymptotic expansion of induced Grassmannian Chern forms and distribution of random degeneracy sets
Turgay Bayraktar, Dan Coman, Bingxiao Liu et al. (+1 more)
For the Grassmannian
embeddings defined by the spaces $H^0(X,L^p\otimes E)$, where $L$ is a positive line bundle and $E$ is a holomorphic vector bundle over a compact complex
manifold, we prove a complete asymptotic expansion of the induced Grassmannian Chern forms and compute the first coefficients explicitly. As an application of the first-order asymptotics and of the theory of meromorphic transforms by Dinh and Sibony, we prove that on a compact Kähler
manifold, the normalized currents of integration over the loci where several random sections become linearly dependent converge almost surely to the corresponding power of the
curvature form of the positive line bundle, with a quantitative estimate for the speed of convergence. Moreover, in the determinant case, we additionally present an alternative method based on the Wishart distribution, together with variance estimates.
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All authors Turgay Bayraktar, Dan Coman, Bingxiao Liu, George Marinescu
Probability
Breuer-Major-Donsker invariance principle
Paul Mansanarez, Guillaume Poly and Guangqu Zheng
We prove a Breuer-Major-type Donsker's invariance principle for stationary Gaussian sequences under the natural finite-variance assumption on the test function. This result, which we call the Breuer-Major-Donsker principle, or simply the BMD principle, removes the additional moment assumption imposed in the functional Breuer-Major
theorem of Nourdin and Nualart (Probab. Theory Related Fields, 2020). Our method does not rely on the Malliavin-calculus estimates used by Nourdin and Nualart, in particular Meyer's inequality. Instead, it is based on a predictable-martingale decomposition of the partial-sum process, which is of independent interest. We also make systematic use of non-determinism, a central notion in Gaussian prediction theory. In the non-deterministic case, the martingale part is handled by the martingale functional central limit
theorem, while the predictable remainder gains integrability above order two through Ornstein-Uhlenbeck smoothing. In the deterministic case, the martingale part vanishes, and the smoothing mechanism is no longer available along the full sequence. Nevertheless, under an additional mild assumption on the covariance function, a suitable decimation recovers non-determinism and reduces the proof to the non-deterministic case.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST
An Operator-Theoretic Analysis of Nonlinear Filtering under Model Misspecification
Fabián González, Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Dan Crisan et al. (+1 more)
We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a
Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a
Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction–update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.
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All authors Fabián González, Ömer Deniz Akyildiz, Dan Crisan, Joaquín Míguez
Probability · Cross-listed from math-ph
Correlated and uncorrelated long–time asymptotics of type D ASEP
Jeffrey Kuan
The type D ASEP is an asymmetric two–species interacting particle system on $\Z$, in which two separately conserved species hop, bind into a composite “bound pair”, and split. The model, along with its reversible measures and orthogonal
polynomial duality, was constructed using the representation theory of $U_q(\so_{2n})$. The reversible measures and orthogonal
polynomial duality are each a product of two copies of the single-species ASEP reversible measures and orthogonal
polynomial duality. In this paper, we study the long-time asymptotics of the type D ASEP. In the fixed–$q$ regime, using an exact current–decoupling identity, we prove that the asymptotic hydrodynamic limit and Tracy–Widom fluctuations decouple, as predicted from the duality. In the weak–asymmetry (Edwards–Wilkinson) regime, when $q=1-c/N^2$, we prove that the two density fluctuation fields \underline{decouple}: each converges to a linear
stochastic heat equation, with no cross–coupling in either the drift or the noise, the limiting noises having vanishing cross–correlation. More surprisingly, we then prove that the two limiting normal random variables are \underline{correlated} with a seemingly new correlation function. The correlation is exactly equal to $(1-e^{-4c})/(4c)$, with the positive parts of the normal random variables having correlations expressed by the Bessel–Struve function. This paper, with the exception of the abstract and introduction, was written entirely by Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5. The proofs were then formalized in Lean, using Aristotle by Harmonic AI. The human author of this paper verified the proofs manually.
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Probability · Cross-listed from quant-ph
Moment-based PPT criteria for random bipartite states
Cécilia Lancien and Kieran McShane
Moment-based relaxations of the positive partial transpose (PPT) criterion have been recently introduced, as a hierarchy of
entanglement criteria involving only experimentally accessible quantities of a given bipartite state. The goal of this work is to study their typical detection performance on high-dimensional bipartite systems. Concretely, we investigate whether random bipartite mixed states on $\mathbb C^d\otimes\mathbb C^d$, obtained as the marginal over an environment $\mathbb C^s$ of a uniformly distributed pure state, generically satisfy or violate them. For each fixed level $m\in\mathbb N$ in this hierarchy of moment-based PPT criteria, we are able to identify a threshold environment dimension $s=\lambda_md^2$ at which the behavior of the associated random state switches from violating to satisfying it, with probability going to $1$ as $d$ grows. The proof combines combinatorics of permutations techniques to estimate the average value of moments of partially transposed random states and concentration of measure arguments to bound the probability of deviating from such average, when the underlying local dimension $d$ is large. We additionally need tools from the theory of Hankel determinant evaluation via orthogonal
polynomials.
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Probability
Markov Properties of $k$-Record Processes via Order Statistics
Rodrigo Labouriau
The theory of $k$-record values (Type 2 $k$-records) plays an important role in the study of partial extremes and in statistical inference based on record data. A common approach reduces the analysis of $k$-records associated with a distribution function $F$ to that of ordinary records from the transformed distribution $F_{1:k}(x)=1-(1-F(x))^k$. This representation is widely used to derive distributional and inferential results, often without an explicit construction of the underlying
stochastic mechanism, and relies on a structural property of order statistics that, although classical, is typically invoked without proof. We give a direct derivation of the probabilistic structure of $k$-record processes based on the sequence of running order statistics $U_n=X_{n-k+1:n}$, the $k$-th largest among the first $n$ observations. We show that $(U_n)$ forms a Markov chain with respect to its natural filtration, with an explicit transition kernel. The key step is a conditional-independence property of upper order statistics, which we isolate and prove: conditionally on $U_n$, the $k-1$ observations exceeding $U_n$ are distributed as order statistics from the distribution truncated at $U_n$, independently of the whole past trajectory. Under continuity of $F$, the usual Type 2 $k$-record times coincide almost surely with the record times of $(U_n)$. This yields a transparent construction of the $k$-record process as the record process of a Markov chain, and classical distributional results – including the representation through $F_{1:k}$ and the joint density of the first $m$ $k$-record values – are recovered in a unified framework. We also treat the exponential case, in which the $k$-record values form a random walk with independent exponential increments and Gamma-distributed marginals, and record a corresponding characterisation of the exponential distribution.
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Probability
The limit law of the maximum of discrete partial-sums distribution II
Andrius Grigutis and Juozas Petkelis
Let $X_1,\,X_2,\,\ldots,\,X_N$, $N\in\mathbb N$ be independent, discrete, integer-valued random variables. Assume that $X_j\geqslant m_j$ almost surely for each $j=1,\,2,\,\ldots,\,N$, where $m_1,\,m_2,\,\ldots,\,m_N\in\mathbb{Z}$ satisfy $m_1+\cdots+m_N<0$. Furthermore, suppose that the sequence $X_1,\,X_2,\,\ldots$ is periodic in distribution, i.e. $X_k{\buildrel d \over =} X_{k+N}$ for all $k\in\mathbb N$. We derive computable representations for the distribution functions of $\max\{X_1,\,X_1+X_2,\,\ldots\}$, $\max\{X_2,\,X_2+X_3,\,\ldots\}$, $\ldots$, $\max\{X_N,\,X_N+X_{N+1},\,\ldots\}$. The obtained formulas are based on a linear recurrence whose initial values are determined from a linear system that involves the roots of an associated characteristic equation and the distributions of $X_1,\,X_2,\,\ldots,\,X_N$. Several examples are presented, including a biseasonal-biased Rademacher random walk for which the distribution, generating functions, and all moments admit explicit closed-form expressions. In addition, we identify and correct several inaccuracies in the results reported in \cite{Grigutis2024}.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.DS
An exponent-$s$ dynamical Borel-Cantelli lemma and the waiting time problem
Dušan Bajović and Boris Petković
Galatolo and Kim proved that the dynamical Borel-Cantelli property for decreasing sequences of balls is tightly connected with the waiting time problem. In systems where all such sequences are Borel-Cantelli, the time needed to enter a small ball $B$ for the first time scales as $\mu(B)^{-1}$, and conversely, waiting time estimates yield Borel-Cantelli results for sequences of balls whose radii decrease in a controlled way. We extend this correspondence to the exponent-$s$ setting introduced by Tseng. For $s\ge 1$, the $s$-exponent monotone shrinking target property ($s$MSTP) requires the Borel-Cantelli conclusion only for decreasing sequences of centered balls satisfying the stronger divergence condition $\sum_n\mu(B_n)^s=\infty$. We prove that $s$MSTP forces the lower waiting time exponent, measured on the scale of $-\log\mu(B(y,r))$, to lie in the interval $[1,s]$ almost everywhere. That a quantitative ($s$-strong) form of the property bounds the upper exponent by $s$ and that, conversely, an exponent-$s$ waiting time estimate implies the Borel-Cantelli property for decreasing sequences of centered balls whose radii obey the calibrated decay condition matching the critical divergence exponent $s$. We also obtain the corresponding quantitative orbit approximation statement $\liminf_n n^{\beta}\,d(T^nx,y)=0$ for $\beta<1/(s\,\underline{d}_\mu(y))$, show that the universal lower bound with exponent $1$ pins the theory to $s\ge 1$, and discuss sharpness on circle rotations, where by results of Kurzweil, Kim-Seo and Tseng the picture is governed by the Diophantine type of the rotation number.
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Probability
Smoluchowski-Kramers Approximation for Stochastic Differential Equations driven by Fractional Brownian Motion
Jiaxin Zha
In this paper, we discuss the validity of an approximation inspired by the Smoluchowski-Kramers approximation for a class of
stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion with additive noise. By rewriting such equations in the form of slow-fast systems and decomposing the fast component into three parts, we investigate the small mass limit of these equations and derive the corresponding convergence rates. Furthermore, under certain regularity conditions, we study the large and moderate deviation principles for a class of
stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion with small multiplicative noise via the weak convergence approach.
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Probability
Sharp Ternary Martingale Isoperimetry and $n$-adic Takagi-Type Lower Bounds
Natanael Alpay
Let $S_1$ be the one-variation associated with the regular $n$-adic martingale filtration on $[0,1)$. We study the martingale isoperimetric profile \[ V_n(x):= \inf_{\substack{A\subset[0,1)\ {\rm measurable}\\ |A|=x}} \|S_1(\mathbbm 1_A)\|_1 . \] For the ternary filtration we determine this profile exactly. Namely, \[ V_3(x)=T_3(x):= \sum_{j=0}^{\infty}3^{-j}\psi_3(\{3^j x\}), \] where \[ \psi_3(t)= \min\left\{ \frac{1+2\left|t-\frac12\right|}{3}, \frac{2-4\left|t-\frac12\right|}{3} \right\}, \qquad 0\le t\le1 . \] Thus the sharp ternary profile is a Takagi-type Bellman function. It is, however, not the usual ternary Takagi–van der Waerden function $\omega_3$; for example, \[ T_3(1/3)=4/9, \qquad \omega_3(1/3)=1/3 . \] For general $n\ge2$, we prove that every measurable $A\subset[0,1)$ satisfies \[ \|S_1(\mathbbm 1_A)\|_1 \ge \omega_n(|A|^*) \asymp_n |A|^*\log\frac1{|A|^*}, \qquad |A|^*:=\min\{|A|,1-|A|\}. \] Moreover, this logarithmic order is sharp up to a constant depending only on $n$. Finally, for every $0<\alpha<1$, we prove the endpoint estimate \[ \|S_1(\mathbbm 1_A)\|_\alpha\ge |A|^*, \] and show that it is sharp up to a constant depending only on $\alpha$ and $n$.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.OC
The optimal rate of convergence in mean field control via recoupled shadow flows
Sebastian Munoz
We determine the rate of convergence of the value functions of the $N$-particle
stochastic optimal control problem to the value function of the corresponding mean field control problem, for mean field costs that are merely Lipschitz continuous in the 1-Wasserstein distance, a class that covers problems whose mean field optimizers are neither unique nor stable. For $d\geq2$, the optimal rate is the empirical-measure rate ($N^{-1/d}$ for $d\geq3$, $N^{-1/2}\sqrt{\log N}$ for $d=2$): this proves the rate conjectured by Daudin, Delarue and Jackson, and removes the semiconcavity hypothesis made there. In dimension one, we discover that the empirical-measure
benchmark is not optimal: cooperating particles beat it, and the optimal
polynomial exponent is $4/7$, strictly between the accuracy of independent samples and that of quantization by freely placed points. The proofs are control-theoretic: from each realization of an $N$-particle control we build a pathwise Fokker-Planck flow (a "shadow flow") which, repeatedly recoupled to the particles by optimal transport, shadows the empirical measure at the optimal rate. The one-dimensional rate requires additional constructions: we correct the shadow flow with a filter built on the future of the discarded noise, draw the cooperating particles from a Gibbs law, and prove the optimality of the exponent by a Schrodinger ground-state estimate. The empirical-measure rate also holds under additive common noise, uniformly in its intensity.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.LO
Limit laws for component-pruned sparse random graphs and percolated tori
Mostafa Mirabi and Saharon Shelah
We prove an $\mathrm{MSO}_2$ zero-one law for a very sparse Erdős-Rényi graph after
pruning by component order. Let $p_n=c_n/n$, where $c_n\to0$, and delete every component of order less than $f(n)$, where $f(n)\to\infty$. If \[ f(n)\bigl(\log f(n)+\log(1/c_n)\bigr)=o(\log n), \] then the resulting graph satisfies a zero-one law for $\mathrm{MSO}_2$, with quantification over sets of vertices and sets of edges. The proof combines uniform component counts, an MSO Feferman-Vaught decomposition for disjoint unions, and semilinearity of the order spectra of MSO-definable classes of finite trees. We also show that the term $f(n)\log f(n)$ cannot simply be omitted:
star components can occur at first-order-visible Poisson thresholds. We further establish first-order limit laws for bond percolation on the discrete
torus $T_L^d$. In the two-sided subpolynomial regime,
pruning below a sufficiently slow threshold yields a zero-one law. For the unpruned model in either one-sided
polynomial regime, the reciprocal exponents $\alpha=1/k$ are precisely the critical scales. At such a scale, an extended limit of $N p_N^k$ or $N q_N^k$ equal to $0$ or $\infty$ gives a zero-one law; a positive finite limit gives a convergence law but not a zero-one law; and the absence of an extended limit gives failure of convergence. Finally, $\mathrm{MSO}_1$ already detects the parity of the
torus side length through bipartiteness, producing a natural obstruction to monadic convergence in a near-deterministic regime.
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Probability · Cross-listed from q-bio.PE
Branching-Time Signatures of Growth Regime in Tumor Birth-Death Models
Meng Wang, Zhangchi Weng, Jasmine Foo et al. (+1 more)
Tumor
evolution is shaped by
cell division,
cell death, competition, and constraints imposed by the local microenvironment. Because these dynamics are usually not observed directly, phylogenetic trees inferred from somatic variation in sampled tumor
cells can provide an indirect record of the population history that produced the sample. In this paper, we examine whether the distribution of inferred internal branching times exhibits signatures that depend on the underlying tumor growth regime. Specifically, we study the distribution of internal branching times in continuous-time birth-death models of tumor
evolution. Exponentially growing populations exhibit a unimodal distribution of internal branching times, with the mode located near the root. In contrast, logistic growth, which models expansion constrained by carrying capacity, yields a substantially more intricate genealogical structure: the distribution of branching times undergoes a systematic transition as the time elapsed since tumor initiation increases. Specifically, this progression shifts from an expansion-dominated phase, through an intermediate early-recent bimodal phase, to a final recent-dominated phase. Extensive simulations of reconstructed tumor genealogies support these theoretical findings.
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All authors Meng Wang, Zhangchi Weng, Jasmine Foo, Zicheng Wang
Probability
The storage capacity of the Ising perceptron: verification of the outstanding numerical conditions
Yitzchak Shmalo
Krauth and Mézard predicted in 1989 that the storage capacity of the Ising perceptron at zero margin is an explicit constant $\alpha_\star\approx0.8330786$. Let $M_N$ be the largest number of random patterns that can be stored by an $N$-dimensional Ising perceptron. We give a computer-assisted proof that \[ \frac{M_N}{N}\xrightarrow{\mathbb P}\alpha_\star, \qquad \alpha_\star\in[0.833078599,0.833078600]. \] Previous work established matching conditional lower and upper bounds, subject respectively to a one-variable global sign condition of Ding–Sun and a two-variable global sign condition of Huang. We rigorously verify both conditions using Arb ball arithmetic. For Huang's condition, a moment-coordinate reparametrization compresses the unbounded parameter plane onto a compact convex body. Convex duality and certified adaptive sweeps control its bulk, while a ray-concavity argument treats the degenerate maximizer. We also re-establish the shared parameter rectangle and verify the full Ding–Sun condition, including its
curvature and endpoint requirements. Combining these verifications with the existing sharp-threshold and universality
theorems proves the result for Gaussian disorder and for every fixed i.i.d.\ mean-zero, unit-variance subgaussian disorder law, including Bernoulli disorder. The complete verification programs, certificates, and raw records accompany the paper.
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