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Tuesday 6 October

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.MS

Scen-Opt: A Scenario Optimization Toolbox for Data-Driven Convex Programming

The scenario approach is a well-established statistical framework for data-driven decision-making. In particular, in data-driven optimization, the scenario approach unveils how the problem structure governs out-of-sample generalization, and offers a principled basis for assessing and certifying the reliability of the optimal solution as per constraint satisfaction. Despite its strong theoretical development and wide applicability, no software toolbox has been available to date that enables user-friendly, data-driven convex optimization within the scenario-approach framework. In this paper, we introduce Scen-Opt, an open-source software tool that integrates convex programming with data samples while providing statistical guarantees grounded in scenario theory. Scen-Opt is implemented in Python, supporting data-driven linear, quadratic, and semidefinite programming, and offers a Python-based web application with an intuitive and reactive graphical user interface (GUI) built using modern web technologies. Scen-Opt can be used directly through its online interface or installed locally, accommodating both manual input and data-file uploads (CSV, JSON, TXT, TSV, MAT, Excel, NPY, NPZ, Parquet). Built on a Python backend with a modern JavaScript frontend, Scen-Opt offers a highly user-friendly experience and efficient usability across desktops, laptops, tablets, and mobile devices. In this paper, Scen-Opt is applied to a set of representative benchmarks, demonstrating its practical effectiveness for data-driven convex optimization with guaranteed performance.
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All authors Ben Wooding, Simone Garatti, Marco C. Campi, Abolfazl Lavaei

Systems and Control

Optimal Coordination of Heat Pump Demand Flexibility and Battery Energy Storage Considering the Operation of Distribution Networks

Electrifying space heating with heat pumps (HP) and backup electric-resistance heaters (ERH) is incentivized to support decarbonization but increases voltage and thermal issues in distribution networks. Direct load control (DLC) of smart thermostats (ST) provide grid support, yet, to the best of our knowledge, existing methods do not co-optimize this flexibility with grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) and voltage-regulation devices, and do not use ERH for preheating, limiting peak demand reduction and undervoltage mitigation. We propose a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP)-based model predictive control (MPC) framework that coordinates ST setpoints for preheating and setback, grid-scale BESS, on-load tap changers, switched capacitor banks, and step voltage regulators. The framework is evaluated on 23-node and 733-node distribution networks, including a real-data-based feeder, across multiple realized days. On the 23-node feeder with 50% HP penetration and 50% DLC participation, the proposed framework reduces the feeder peak by 23.1%, and by 27.1% with the co-optimized BESS. Rolling-horizon setpoint optimization contributes 6.5 percentage points beyond a day-ahead ST schedule (16.6%), and dispatching the ERH for preheating adds 2.7 percentage points beyond backup-only operation (20.4%). On the 733-node feeder, where thermal congestion is the binding constraint, the framework reduces overloaded branches by 94% and overloaded transformers by 47%. These results demonstrate the potential of coordinated demand flexibility and voltage regulation to accommodate heating electrification.
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Systems and Control

Belief-Informed Hybrid Control with Almost-Sure Target-Set Convergence

Controlling a hybrid system to a target set under parameter uncertainty can require informative actions that temporarily drive the system state away from the specified set. We propose a belief-informed dual-control algorithm that combines belief-space receding-horizon selection with an expected-decrease constraint on a nonnegative target-set progress function. To accommodate exploratory deviations, a scalar controller state bounds the constraint's cumulative slack. Our algorithm's two-step lookahead selection uses predicted observations to update the parameter belief before evaluating the subsequent action's admissibility. Under distance-comparison bounds, correct conditional prediction, and recursive feasibility, we prove almost-sure target-set convergence at decision times and bound both the sum of expected progress-function values and the expected neighborhood-entry time. Upper confidence bounds extend these convergence guarantees to bounded model samples with summable error probabilities. In planar regulation with an unknown control direction, we verify recursive feasibility: the proposed two-step selection reduces the Euclidean state norm below 0.01 within 11 decisions for either sign, whereas a myopic one-step selection loses admissibility immediately after zero input. In a simulated bimanual assembly task, our algorithm's one-step implementation uses clearance feedback to complete the assembly under nominal friction, yielding a 96.4% lower infinity-norm relative-position error than the reference-tracking baseline at the method's completion time. At lower friction, its posterior conditioning successfully detects an empty admissible set, whereas a fixed-prior alternative admits an action that violates the conditional decrease constraint. Project page: https://clintonenwerem.com/belief-hybrid-control/.
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All authors Clinton Enwerem, Saleh Kemal, John S. Baras, Calin Belta

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Nine Trials to Recover: A Reproducible Benchmark for Repertoire-Free Soft-Robot Damage Adaptation

We present a repertoire-free benchmark for soft-robot damage recovery under nine online trials. The protocol pairs damage masks within each morphology, retains a measured nominal fallback, and separates method development from evaluation on new bodies. A Gaussian-process expected-improvement (GP-EI) reference controller adapts actuator phases using three initialization probes and six feedback-selected rollouts. Across two disjoint 75-body cohorts, it outperforms random search, Sobol, CEM, and CMA-ES under equal budgets. GP-EI improves the worst-mask gain on 69/75 confirmation bodies and exceeds these four baselines by 0.235-0.310 mean worst-mask reward. A TuRBO-style local GP is the closest comparator; the paired confidence interval includes zero. Post-confirmation fixed-controller replay finds 5.06 voxel widths of mean recovery together with a 0.0031 increase in worst-mask p99 geometric edge strain; a strict no-added-demand deployment gate retains 48.7% of mean gain. In a frozen development stress test that physically removes 10% of occupied voxels, GP-EI improves 71/75 bodies and exceeds official BoTorch TuRBO by 0.356 mean worst-mask gain. Together, the replayable controllers, body-level inference, and frozen-cohort evaluation provide a reference for measuring the added value of learned damage priors and future adaptation methods.
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Systems and Control

Portfolio Design and Pricing for Multimodal Mobility-on-Demand Services Considering Traveler Responses

Mobility-on-demand (MoD) platforms can offer exclusive, pooled, and transit-connected services to accommodate different passenger needs. However, determining which services to offer and at what prices is challenging because profitability depends on both passenger choices and operational feasibility. This paper proposes a real-time framework that jointly optimizes service menus, fares, and vehicle trip plans for individual MoD requests. Passenger choices are modeled using a generalized nested logit (GNL) model that captures correlated substitution among service options based on vehicle sharing and transit use. To solve the resulting nonlinear fare-optimization problem, we use Fenchel duality to transform the nonlinear objective from the fare domain to the choice-probability domain, yielding a concave maximization involving a generalized entropy term. We evaluate the framework through operational simulations using real-world New York City trip records. Joint portfolio design and pricing improve operator service margins by 28.4% and 8.5% compared with optimizing only service menus and only fares, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed reformulation is up to 18.8 times faster than solving the original pricing problem directly in fare space, improving computational efficiency for real-time MoD operations.
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Systems and Control

Models of Electric Vehicle Charging Demands in Distribution Grid Operation: A Review

The rapid integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into the transportation system has introduced a new class of load into power distribution systems (PDS), i.e., EV charging demand (EVCD). The spatiotemporal variability of EVCD poses fundamental challenges for distribution system operators (DSOs), particularly in ensuring secure and reliable network operation. Accurately representing EVCD as a parameter within the distribution optimal power flow (DOPF) problem is a prerequisite for reliable, cost-efficient PDS operation, yet no universally accepted modeling framework has emerged. The existing contributions span a wide spectrum of assumptions, mathematical formulations, and solution paradigms. This article presents a systematic review of methods and models employed to represent EVCD within DOPF frameworks from the DSO's operational perspective. The existing EVCD modeling methods are classified into two primary categories based on EVCD representation: deterministic models and uncertainty-aware models. The two main categories are further divided into several subcategories. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review on models for integrating EVCD into PDS operation and planning.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Preserving Unstable Modes Through Inverse Dynamics in JEPA World Models

Robotic systems often exhibit unstable modes, along which small perturbations and disturbances can cause unbounded growth unless corrected through feedback. Controlling such systems from high-dimensional visual observations requires representations that preserve these modes. Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) provide a natural framework for learning such representations and their dynamics from visual data. However, we demonstrate that next step prediction combined with anti-collapse regularization does not guarantee that controllable unstable modes are preserved: the training loss can be minimized while these modes are collapsed, making stabilization from the learned representation impossible. To address this, we augment world-model training with an action reconstruction objective (i.e., an inverse dynamics loss) that encourages control-aware representations, namely, visual representations that preserve crucial features for control. We prove that exact action reconstruction makes the encoder injective on the finite-horizon reachable subspace. Thus, the encoder cannot discard any state direction reachable by an action sequence within $H$ steps. Moreover, we show that, as $H$ grows, the dominant eigenspace of the finite-horizon controllability Gramian converges to the controllable unstable subspace. We establish our theoretical results for linear systems and demonstrate empirically that our findings extend to nonlinear visual control tasks (CartPole, Walker2D, and PointMaze), highlighting the benefits of control-aware representation learning.
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All authors Leonardo F. Toso, Yann LeCun, James Anderson, Oumayma Bounou

Monday 5 October

Systems and Control

Uncertainty-Aware Vision-Based Autonomous Aerial Refueling

Probe-and-drogue refueling (PDR) requires accurate terminal alignment of a receiver probe with an uninstrumented, dynamically moving drogue despite uncertainty in both relative-state estimation and closed-loop motion. Existing vision-based docking approaches provide relative-state estimates, but generally do not quantify estimation and operational uncertainty in a way that informs the control authority required for robust docking performance. We present an uncertainty-aware vision-based PDR docking architecture that fuses keypoint-based drogue measurements, differential GPS, and avionics in an extended Kalman filter. Split conformal calibration characterizes near-contact error in the fused probe-to-drogue displacement estimate, while a covariance-based operational uncertainty quantification designs position-dispersion limits along with corrective-command variance budgets under modeled handoff variability and disturbances. The resulting uncertainty statistics define geometric and command margins for a range-conditioned deterministic predictive controller. In high-fidelity FlightGear/JSBSim simulations with four controller variants and 50 runs per variant, the combined-margin controller achieved 45/50 centered basket-plane crossings versus 34/50 for nominal MPC. Median planar crossing error decreased from 0.231 to 0.175~$\mathrm{m}$ and the empirical 90th percentile from 0.403 to 0.286~$\mathrm{m}$, while the roll-command RMS increased from 0.22$^\circ$ to 0.48$^\circ$.
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All authors Minhyuk Jang, Thinh Nguyen, Vivek Khatana, Sandeep Banik, Naira Hovakimyan, Petros G. Voulgaris

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

The interface of data assimilation and machine learning

Data assimilation (DA) is the process of combining forecasts from a model with observations in order to optimally estimate the state of a system. This is critical for chaotic systems, such as the atmosphere, since if observations are not continually assimilated the model will quickly lose skill. DA is routinely performed (usually every 6 hours) at operational forecasting centres around the world. In this article we discuss the interface of machine learning (ML) and DA. This is still an emerging and quickly developing field, and this article tries to give an overview of some of the main topics and methods.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Risk-Sensitive Crowd Navigation with Adaptive Ellipsoidal Conformal Prediction

Safe crowd navigation under distribution shift requires uncertainty representations that capture structured human-motion prediction errors and safety objectives that account for rare but consequential failures. Existing uncertainty-aware methods typically represent prediction errors using isotropic regions, which can be either overly conservative or poorly aligned with directional motion uncertainty. We introduce a risk-aware navigation framework that uses anisotropic conformal ellipsoids to translate structured prediction uncertainty into an episode-level conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) signal that regulates the Lagrangian safety penalty. In particular, adaptive ellipsoidal conformal prediction (AECP) captures directional prediction errors and adaptively calibrates uncertainty regions under distribution shift, while the resulting CVaR-regulated navigation policy is optimized using Lagrangian proximal policy optimization. We evaluate our proposed method under both in-distribution settings and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings involving shifts in pedestrian motion patterns. Compared with state-of-the-art baselines, our method maintains competitive in-distribution performance while improving success rates by 5.68-7.44 percentage points and reducing collision rates by 5.44-6.64 percentage points across OOD settings. We further deploy the trained policy without fine-tuning on a physical robot with onboard perception and CPU-only inference, showing that the full pipeline is feasible in physical crowd navigation.
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Systems and Control

Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces: Architectures, Models, and Applications

Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), also known as programmable metasurfaces, have emerged as a promising technology for next-generation wireless communication systems by enabling programmable control over the propagation environment. Through dynamic manipulation of the phase, amplitude, and polarization of electromagnetic waves, RIS introduces new degrees of freedom for enhancing coverage, spectral efficiency, energy efficiency, and interference management. This article reviews recent advances in RIS-enabled wireless communications, focusing on RIS architectures, emerging design and analysis techniques, and their impact on system-level performance. Key challenges related to scalability, hardware non-idealities, channel modeling, and control overhead are discussed, along with promising solutions and future research directions toward practical RIS deployment in beyond-5G and 6G networks.
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All authors Mojtaba Fallahzadeh, Mohammad Hossein Koohi Ghamsari, Alireza Mallahzadeh, Amirhossein Ghasemi, Gabriele Gradoni, Rahim Tafazolli

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.NI

Understanding Conflict and Compatibility Conditions for Agents in AI-RAN

Disaggregated mobile networks expose open interfaces for independent agents to control the Radio Access Network (RAN). The interactions between agents with contrasting objectives can result in conflicts. However, existing conflict mitigation methods treat agents that control the same parameter as being in a conflict that requires arbitration of their actions, without assessing whether their objectives can be satisfied simultaneously. In this paper, we introduce a control-theoretic approach to determine when agents can coexist and share control of the same parameters. We model threshold-based agents often encountered in the literature as sampled deadband feedback controllers and represent their objectives through Key Performance Indicator (KPI) targets and tolerances that define acceptable deadband bounds. We derive compatibility conditions from these bounds and show that compatibility for any number of agents and monitored KPIs can be established through pairwise tests. We propose a conflict mitigation policy that allows compatible agents to share control of the same network parameters while restricting arbitration to cases where their objectives cannot be satisfied simultaneously. We evaluate our policy through simulations using NIST's ns3-oran extension of ns-3, and our results show that it enables agents to share control with near-zero Service Level Agreement (SLA) drift when their objectives are compatible and the shared acceptable range is attainable, while matching Priority Mitigation when their objectives are incompatible.
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All authors Arshia Zolghadr, Joao F. Santos, Imtiaz Nasim, Deniz Aytemiz, Nicholas J. Kaminski, Jacek Kibilda

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.RO

An Autonomous, 3D Printed, Waterjet-Powered, Open-Source Robotic Trimaran for Environmental Inspection and Monitoring

Versatile, autonomous robotic boats can offer excellent environmental inspection and monitoring solutions for remote, dangerous, hard to reach, or access protected water bodies. This paper introduces such a platform in the form of an autonomous, cost-effective, waterjet-powered robotic trimaran. Motivated by the need for an efficient aquatic monitoring, particularly in Aotearoa - New Zealand's diverse environments, the trimaran provides an efficient, low-cost, and easy to replicate alternative to resource-intensive research vessels. The proposed platform, costs $600-1,500 USD to develop (depending on the sensing system configuration), weighs under 5 kg, and excels in bathymetry and water quality testing. The trimaran can reach speeds of up to 2 m/s offering obstacle avoidance of natural features, such as rocks. Utilizing off-the-shelf components and 3D printing technology, the proposed platform offers excellent reproducibility and robustness while operating in shallow waters with its jet propulsion system. The paper presents in detail the design characteristics, the sensing system employed, testing results focusing on bathymetry, and highlights the ability of vessel and the potential for future research and data collection.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.RO

AeroBuoy: A Drone Deployable, 3D Printed, Autonomous Robotic Buoy for Environmental Inspection in Remote and Hazardous River Systems

Monitoring of waterways such as remote and hazardous rivers and streams is important so as to assess the impact of external factors including construction runoff or climate change. Versatile, autonomous robotic boats can offer excellent environmental inspection and monitoring solutions for remote, dangerous, or access protected water bodies but they have several shortcomings in terms of maneuverability. This paper proposes an environmental inspection system consisting of an autonomous data collection buoy which is designed to be deployed to inaccessible river systems using a drone. The system can perform a drop off and pickup of the buoy depending on the requirements of a particular location and monitoring task. Utilising the natural flow of the river the buoy autonomously steers down, using GPS and magnetometers so as to maintain the desired trajectory. The buoy is capable of measuring water temperature but it can also be equipped with a range of sensors such as water oxygen meter, sonar for river bed inspection, or turbidity for water clarity. This paper describes the system design, presents an analysis of the self-righting capabilities of the buoy, and shows a full system demonstration at the Ōrewa River in Auckland, New Zealand.
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2610.07390 · 5 Oct · 7 pages. Accepted version. Published in the 2025 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS). Winner of the IROS 2025 Best Paper Award on Safety, Security, and Rescue Robotics in memory of Motohiro Kisoi. Reuben O'Brien and Angus Lynch contributed equally

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Expressiveness, Equivalence, and Uncertainty in Velocity Obstacles and Closest Point of Approach Metrics

Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA), Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Velocity Obstacles (VOs), are widely used to assess and mitigate collision risk in autonomous navigation, yet their relationship and behavior under uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Assuming perfect state information, we establish a relationship between these representations over finite and infinite prediction horizons and derive conditions under which they provide equivalent characterizations of collision risk. Under bounded uncertainty, we extend the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) metrics and VO to convex relative-state sets. We show that in this setting, independently computed TCPA and DCPA bounds lose the joint relationship required for VO membership, while uncertainty-aware VOs preserve this relationship through a set-valued representation of collision-inducing velocities.
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All authors Elizabeth Dietrich, Liam M. Imagawa, Hanna Krasowski, Aurora Haraldsen, Murat Arcak, Kristin Y. Pettersen

Systems and Control

Exact-Safe MPPI: Safety-Aware Sampling with Nonsmooth Control Barrier Functions

Model predictive path integral (MPPI) control plans actions by sampling and evaluating trajectories, but standard MPPI does not guarantee safety. Incorporating control barrier function (CBF) filters into each rollout allows the planner to account for safety corrections. However, combining multiple CBFs through a soft-minimum approximation can exclude states that satisfy the original safety constraints, restricting the trajectories available to the planner. This paper proposes Exact-Safe MPPI, which uses the exact minimum of multiple barrier functions and applies a CBF-based quadratic program during both planning and control execution. To handle nondifferentiability where multiple barriers attain the minimum, the filter simultaneously enforces the CBF conditions for all $\delta$-active barriers, whose values lie within a prescribed tolerance $\delta>0$ of the minimum. Under suitable feasibility and regularity assumptions, we establish forward invariance of the certified safe set without the shrinkage introduced by soft-minimum smoothing. We also characterize the state-dependent approximation gap and explain how multiple barriers with values at or near the minimum increase this shrinkage. Furthermore, we show that increasing the number of MPPI samples cannot recover trajectories excluded by the soft-minimum filter. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in a navigation task requiring passage through a narrow gap between two obstacles. Video demonstrations are available at https://github.com/lc-lab25/Exact-Safe-MPPI .
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.GT

Metric-Based Equilibrium Selection in Noncooperative Differentiable Games

Metric conditioning can change which equilibrium attracts learning dynamics without moving the equilibria of a differentiable game. We study how to use state-dependent symmetric positive-definite (SPD) metrics to select among known equilibria by keeping a designated equilibrium attracting while making a rival unstable. Building on classical results on matrix stability under positive-definite multiplication, we characterize when such destabilization is possible and show how restricting the metric to act independently on each player limits the stability changes that can be achieved at differential Nash equilibria. We then combine a stabilizing metric at the selected equilibrium with a destabilizing metric at the rival through smooth interpolation, yielding a single metric field that preserves every equilibrium of the game while assigning the desired local stability types. We also derive a step-size condition for implementing the method in discrete time. The approach is validated on a continuous-commitment stag hunt and an entropy-regularized iterated prisoner's dilemma, where it selects the desired equilibrium in both settings.
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All authors Karan Mahesh, Runyu Zhang, Michael R. Benjamin, Gioele Zardini

Systems and Control

Optimal Search for Finding Satellites Post-Launch

This paper introduces Bayesian Continuation Model Predictive Control (BC-MPC), an adaptive method that replans near-term antenna pointings while continuing a feasible baseline sweep, for finding and establishing contact with spacecraft immediately after launch when their true positions are most uncertain. After separation, launch and deployment errors can leave the spacecraft sufficiently far from its predicted position that operators must actively search for it during ground contacts to establish communications. Each missed detection provides information about which orbital hypotheses remain plausible, but searching one part of the uncertainty region can consume the time needed to reach another. BC-MPC updates a particle-based orbital belief after missed detections and replans antenna pointing guidance while retaining feasibility. Its continuation helps preserve future search coverage that greedy and short-horizon methods can sacrifice for immediate acquisition gains. We compare BC-MPC against the operationally prevalent along-track sweep and additional search algorithms under common search-time budgets, initial uncertainty, and antenna constraints. Across 96 simulated deployments with matched uncertainty, BC-MPC improves acquisition probability over the along-track sweep and reduces restricted mean acquisition time. We additionally evaluate the method using pre-launch, post-launch, and initial acquisition ephemerides for 83 spacecraft from the Transporter-16 rideshare launch. Using either pre-deployment or post-deployment two-line element sets (TLEs) for planning, BC-MPC improves modeled acquisition probability over the along-track sweep by approximately 12 percentage points under the commonly assumed uncertainty model.
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All authors Carlo Schreiber, Duncan Eddy, Mahdi Al-Husseini, Derek Woods, Araz Feyzi, Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Systems and Control · Cross-listed from math.OC

Model-Based Galerkin Lifting with Exact LTI Decomposition for Guaranteed $\mathcal{H}_\infty$ Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Systems

In this paper, we present a model-based Galerkin framework for output-feedback control of nonlinear systems with known dynamics. With a suitable actuator augmentation, the finite-dimensional realization preserves the actuator dynamics and the constant input matrix. We retain finite-order nonclosure as an explicit additive residual. The LTI part and this residual describe the lifted nonlinear dynamics exactly. The decomposition does not require an invariant subspace of observables and also applies to non-control-affine systems. We use regional bounds on the closure residual, actuator-realization defect, and output-reconstruction error in the standard $\mathcal{H}_\infty$ design. The proposed controller is a linear dynamic system driven only by the measured tracking error and requires no online lifting. Retaining the state coordinates gives direct bounds on the original state. We use these bounds to derive an a priori containment condition. Under this condition, the nonlinear closed loop is forward complete, and the state and tracking error satisfy explicit transient bounds and are uniformly ultimately bounded. The cart-pendulum example illustrates the nonlinear closed-loop guarantees and compares the controller with full-state backstepping. Although the output-feedback controller uses only the measured tracking error, it achieves almost the same nominal tracking RMSE as backstepping, with a lower peak tracking error.
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All authors Burak Kurkcu, Christopher Phan, Aleksandar Zecevic, Maryam Khanbaghi

Systems and Control

Nonlinear Thermal Modeling and Predictive Control for Spacecraft Optical Temperature Regulation

Maintaining a stable thermal environment is critical for spacecraft carrying precision optics, as temperature gradients and thermal expansion can alter the geometric alignment of optical components, compromise wavefront sensing, and degrade image quality even when active thermal systems provide real-time control. In particular, the temperature of the optical payload must be controlled to sub-Kelvin tolerances about the desired setpoint, a requirement that is often difficult to achieve with conventional reactive control methods. To this end, this paper develops a novel nonlinear thermal model for the optical system of a spacecraft, accounting for conduction, radiation, and the changing radiative environment induced by the spacecraft's orbit. Using this model, we develop a model predictive control (MPC) methodology that enables closed-loop thermal regulation of the optical compartment under realistic orbital conditions. Since only partial, noise-corrupted temperature measurements are available, an Unscented Kalman Filter is employed to estimate the full thermal state, yielding a certainty-equivalence MPC controller obtained via recursive online optimization. The thermal model is validated against a high-fidelity thermal simulator, and the proposed approach is compared against conventional PID control, the prevailing method for on-orbit thermal regulation.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.RO

Distribution-Transfer Safe-Horizon MPC under Mode Uncertainty

Scenario-based MPC is an attractive strategy for chance-constrained motion planning that approximates uncertainty via a finite set of sampled scenarios. As a sampling-based method, scenario-based MPC is sensitive to distribution mismatch. We address this problem in the context of Safe-Horizon Model Predictive Control (SH-MPC) with obstacles governed by switching dynamic modes. From finite mode observations, we construct a confidence set for the unknown categorical mode law and derive a multiplicative domination bound that transfers a Safe-Horizon collision-risk certificate from a selected scenario-sampling distribution to every law in the confidence set. Wasserstein geometry is used to regularize probability reallocation among modes according to the similarity of their induced trajectory predictions, while a collision-risk surrogate biases sampling toward dangerous modes. The resulting certificate explicitly quantifies the additional tightening required under distribution mismatch and exposes the multiplicative conservatism that arises when several obstacle-wise transfer factors are combined
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG

Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Load Forecasting Under Covariate Uncertainty

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and efficient operation of modern power systems. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of forecasting tasks, their effectiveness for STLF under realistic operational conditions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmark of four trained-from-scratch (TFS) models and four TSFMs across three real-world load forecasting datasets under operational scenarios that differ in the availability and quality of future covariate information. Our results show that Chronos-2 consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings when future covariates are available or accurately forecast. However, its performance degrades as covariate forecasts become increasingly noisy, whereas TimesNet exhibits greater robustness under severe covariate uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of covariate-informed TSFMs for STLF while highlighting the critical role of robust covariate modeling in real-world forecasting applications.
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Systems and Control

Interleaved Projected Gradient Descent for Safe Imitation Learning

We propose an imitation-learning design for neural-network control policies under state and input constraints. Training alternates a standard imitation gradient step with a block of $k$ safety steps that pull the network's actions toward their projection onto the safe set; at run time, the controller is the trained network alone, with no safety filter. We analyze this scheme as inexact projected gradient descent in the space of policy actions. When the projected actions are recomputed at every safety step and each step moves the actions consistently toward the safe set, letting $k$ grow logarithmically yields asymptotic constraint satisfaction on the training states and bounds the distance to the constrained optimum of the imitation loss; with the projected actions held fixed, the same holds only if they are exactly representable by the network. On a nonlinear autonomous racing task, we compare our method with adding a weighted constraint-violation penalty to the imitation loss. With a sufficiently large weight, our method matches the lap time of unconstrained imitation while reducing the fraction of violating episodes from $15\%$ to $1\%$, about six times fewer than the penalty approach at its best weight. Its lap times are less sensitive to the weight, which instead sets how quickly violations vanish during training. In racing, the safety corrections are sparse and the conditions of the analysis do not hold; the gain arises instead through the data collected during training. These gains come at the cost of additional training computation.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from q-bio.NC

Interplay between Excitability and Noise in Analog Spiking Neurons

A spiking neuron is a dynamical system exhibiting a limit cycle (a spike) when subject to sufficiently excitatory input. Famous neuroscience experiments by Bryant and Segundo as well as Mainen and Sejnowski revealed that the spike times of some biological neurons are more reliable when subject to time-varying stimuli compared to constant ones. Provided with an industrial physics-based transient noise SPICE simulation framework compatible with foundry transistor compact models, we have demonstrated similar behaviours for a CMOS analog spiking neuron designed for neuromorphic computing hardware platforms. Under constant excitation current, the neuron operates in oscillatory regime and the empirical periods (interspike intervals) suffer from accumulated phase noise (jitter) during successive cycles, mainly due to the thermal noise of transistors. A time-varying input is reported to be capable of triggering output spikes according to a controlled statetransition mechanism, thereby significantly reducing the spike time jitter in the excitability regime. The physical limitation of the oscillatory or rate-coding regime in terms of reliabilitydissipation tradeoff is further evidenced by a stochastic thermodynamic uncertainty relation, a theorem that applies to general overdamped dissipative stochastic dynamical systems.
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All authors Léopold Van Brandt, Alon Ascoli, Michele Bonnin, Grégoire Brandsteert, Denis Flandre, Jean-Charles Delvenne

Systems and Control

Continuous-Time Estimation-Aware Optimal Control of Mobile Sensors for Target Tracking

Target tracking is the problem of estimating the state of a target system using measurements collected (oftentimes) by mobile sensors. Trajectory optimization for mobile sensors must account not only for dynamical and operational constraints, but also for uncertainty in estimating the target system's state. We propose an estimation-aware optimal control method for target tracking that accounts for the nonlinear dynamics of both the mobile sensor and target system, the nonlinear covariance dynamics in extended Kalman filtering, and nonlinear measurement models. Furthermore, it ensures constraints on the mobile sensor are satisfied in continuous time (within numerical precision). In numerical simulations, the proposed method achieves estimation-aware target tracking while satisfying the mobile-sensor constraints in continuous time, even under sparse time discretization.
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All authors Michael States, Sharveshwaran Umashankar, Minsen Yuan, Yue Yu

Systems and Control

Vector Field Following for Quadrotors via Reduced Attitude Representations with Applications to Safety-Critical Control

Vector field tracking for quadrotors provides a systematic framework for specifying complex behaviors at the translational level and transferring them to the full vehicle dynamics. Objectives such as safety, for example, can be encoded into a low-dimensional vector field, which is then embedded into the full dynamics through appropriate tracking conditions. The development of such tracking controllers for quadrotors can be facilitated by the fact that their translational dynamics depend only on the thrust direction and are independent of the vehicle's heading. Thus, reduced-attitude representations, leveraging the geometry of the unit sphere, provide a natural framework for vector field tracking on quadrotors. In this work, we propose two vector field tracking controllers for quadrotors using reduced-attitude representations based on dynamic extension and geometric control, respectively. Next, we illustrate how safety can be encoded into the desired vector field using control barrier functions and enforced for the full system. The effectiveness of the proposed approaches is demonstrated via simulations and experimental flight tests.
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Systems and Control

First-order plants are globally asymptotically stable under antithetic feedback

We show that first-order linear plants are globally asymptotically stable under antithetic feedback. This is shown by constructing an explicit smooth, convex Lyapunov function and by appealing to a Krasovskii-LaSalle invariance principle.

Systems and Control

Holding the Cold: Retention-Aware Inventory Control for Industrial Refrigeration

Industrial refrigeration consumes substantial electricity, and compressors are the dominant energy consumers in these systems, making their operation central to improving energy efficiency. Compressors are most efficient when operated at full capacity, but the cooling they provide at full capacity can exceed the facility's immediate needs. This motivates pre-cooling, where compressors operate at full capacity and the excess cooling is stored as thermal inventory for future heat loads. However, stored cooling is inherently lossy: colder spaces attract additional heat from their surroundings, creating a tradeoff between maximizing compressor efficiency and avoiding cooling that dissipates before it can be used. We study this tradeoff through a retention factor, defined as the fraction of thermal inventory that survives after one minute, with the goals of understanding how retention affects the value of pre-cooling and designing effective control policies that account for this lossiness. We formulate compressor control as a stochastic inventory problem, solve for an optimal policy via dynamic programming alongside two simpler alternatives, and evaluate the performance of these policies using models fit from real industrial refrigeration facility data. Our results show that (i) pre-cooling can provide substantial energy savings when thermal inventory is sufficiently persistent, but that failing to account for retention can make aggressive pre-cooling increasingly costly as losses grow, and (ii) structurally simple policies that account for lossiness can still achieve near-optimal performance in lossy systems.
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All authors Lily Y. Chen, Vade Shah, Dan Walsh, Jason R. Marden

Systems and Control

Adaptive Inductor and Frequency Management for Integrated Power Converters

This work presents a digitally controlled adaptive power conversion framework that dynamically co-optimizes inductor configuration and switching frequency to achieve high efficiency across a wide range of load conditions. Conventional buck converters are typically optimized for a single operating point, leading to efficiency degradation under dynamic loads due to mismatches between inductance, switching frequency, and load current. To address this limitation, a reconfigurable inductor architecture is proposed. With this approach, the effective inductance and switching frequency are adjusted at runtime with on-chip digital controller. An end-to-end design methodology is developed, integrating physics-based analytical modeling, finite element method (FEM) simulations, and an optimization framework to determine preferred operating points across the load range. The resulting configurations are stored in a lookup table and implemented in real time through a low-overhead control scheme. The system explicitly accounts for both inductor and switching device losses, enabling co-optimization of conduction and switching losses within current ripple and continuous conduction mode (CCM) constraints. To ensure robust operation under fast load transients, a hysteresis-based control strategy is introduced to mitigate temporary CCM violations caused by sensing latency. An entry-margin condition is derived under which continuous conduction is guaranteed for a bounded load slew rate. Simulation results demonstrate a 4.5 percentage-point improvement in average efficiency and up to a 32% reduction in average power loss relative to fixed configurations, highlighting the effectiveness of adaptive inductance-frequency management in integrated power delivery systems with dynamic load profiles.
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Systems and Control

Prediction Error Method for Identification of Subnetworks of Dynamical Systems

This paper considers prediction-error identification of a subnetwork embedded in a dynamic network. Measured boundary signals entering the subnetwork are appended to the exogenous inputs. Consistency requires that the part of these boundary signals generated by the subnetwork be reconstructible from the measured history; the subnetwork may be enlarged to obtain a simple structural sufficient condition. Under the stated model, stability, delay, disturbance-separation, informativity, and identifiability assumptions, the resulting criterion yields consistent estimates of the subnetwork transfer functions. The predictor may depend nonlinearly on the open-loop transfer functions, allowing consistent estimation with fewer measured internal signals than methods based on predictors that are linear in those transfer functions.
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