Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG
An Enclosed Mode Is a Gauge Choice: Topology Relative to Reach in Certified Code World Models
Javier Aguilar Martín
A code world model accepted by a sampling gate can be exactly right on everything the gate can see and arbitrarily wrong beyond it. We characterize what a certified model can know, and what its errors can cost, when the omission is an annular freeze mode enclosing an unreachable interior. The gate quotient makes the question precise: acceptance-with-certainty determines the model exactly on the reachable query set; beyond reach is gauge. On a minimal ring instrument we prove the extreme case (a wrong-
topology filled-disc artifact unfalsifiable by any sampling gate and bitwise harmless at play) and measure, with LLM synthesis across three model families, how one knob (a channel of width gamma) walks the same artifact through three regimes: unfalsifiable-and-harmless, falsifiable-and-costly, and instantly falsified. Three principles organize the empirics. First, danger is
topology relative to reach: a channel the planner can use collapses the blind model's exploitation (play cost 1.09 to ~0 over a knee at gamma ~ 0.1), while a hidden channel with the same first Betti number keeps it at full strength (1.12). Second, repair is parameter-bound and sensor-bound: no family recovers the region from outside evidence; from inside, models pose the right
topology but cannot pin its parameters, and the posed
topology tracks the guiding persistent-homology summary's wrong beta_1 (a sensor with a measured
geometric resolution limit), not the truth. Third, mitigation must match the error's dimension and direction: point fences fail against the one-dimensional boundary, a dimension-matched persisted fence collapses exploitation to a two-lesson transient (0.999 to 0.058), and the dual freedom certificate collapses the invented-mode failure symmetrically (1.769 to 0.029). In n dimensions the shell makes misidentification near-certain while the danger stays fully exploitable: the two axes are independent.
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Systems and Control
Targeted Power System Frequency Attack via the Selection of Maliciously Controlled Inverters
Xiangyu Zou, Betelihem Ashebo and Daniel K. Molzahn
This paper studies how an adversary can execute a power system frequency attack by choosing the most effective subset of inverter-based resources (IBRs) as malicious control nodes. During the attack, the adversary controls the attacking devices to destabilize a group of designated target generators. The attack is designed by introducing an unstable oscillatory mode whose eigenvector has large components at the target generators and small components at the compromised IBRs. We formalize the optimal attacker selection problem and present an equivalent mixed-integer quadratically constrained program (MIQCP). To address this combinatorial nonconvex problem, we develop two heuristic
algorithms by introducing a ranking metric. The attack process is demonstrated on a modified WSCC 179-bus system, with results verified through nonlinear dynamic simulations. We show that the proposed heuristics find optimal attacking sets in a majority of evaluated scenarios while significantly reducing the required computational time. Scenarios from the ACTIVSg500 system are used to further support our results. Finally, we discuss how selecting different
eigenvalues, targets, and numbers of compromised devices impact the attack's severity.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.NI
xTRUCE: A Provably Safe Arbiter for Multi-xApp Conflict Mitigation in Agentic O-RAN
Le Xia, Rose Qingyang Hu, Paul S. Kudyba et al. (+2 more)
The open
radio access network (O-RAN) is evolving toward agentic operation, where large
language model (LLM)-driven xApps/rApps generate control proposals under operator intents. However, such proposals may be conflicting, infeasible, or hallucinated, and no existing system jointly provides proposal-independent safety, priority-aware reconciliation, and traceable feedback. To this end, we propose a provably safe arbiter, namely xTRUCE, in the near-real-time (Near-RT) RAN intelligent controller for mitigating multi-xApp conflicts in gNB control. We first develop a structured xApp proposal interface and a three-layer constraint hierarchy that places physical limits and operator-defined rules above relaxable performance targets, alongside a dual-timescale control action space. A two-stage arbitration mechanism then minimizes target shortfalls in the operator-priority order to finalize safe E2 actions within the Near-RT latency budget, while returning conflict certificates to xApps and the operator for renegotiation. Finally, we implement xTRUCE in a multi-
cell O-RAN use case, and evaluate its multi-process prototype through simulations with live API-backed LLM xApps and over-the-air experiments on OpenAirInterface/FlexRIC-based O-RAN stacks. Results show that xTRUCE ensures gNB control safety with $100\%$ protected services despite severe proposal
hallucinations, achieves priority-consistent performance satisfaction under overload, efficiently guides LLM intent renegotiation via certificates, and keeps a delay-safe E2 control loop.
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All authors Le Xia, Rose Qingyang Hu, Paul S. Kudyba, Zhenlin An, Haijian Sun
Systems and Control · Cross-listed from quant-ph
Beyond sensitivity: mechanism-resolved error budgets for designing quantum sensors
Nima Leclerc, Marco Capelli, Kevin James Rietwyk et al. (+14 more)
Quantum sensors are specified by a headline sensitivity, yet applications also demand accuracy and reliability. The dominant limiter of one metric is often known, but no method resolves how interacting mechanisms combine into a signed, per-mechanism budget for each metric. We introduce a framework that computes a sensor's sensitivity, accuracy, and robustness from one open-system simulation and attributes each to its limiting mechanism. For a nitrogen-vacancy diamond ensemble the attribution inverts across metrics: dephasing limits sensitivity, the thermal ground-state shift limits accuracy, and optical leakage limits robustness. At identical sensitivity the recovered-field bias spans $8$ to $1500$\,nT, so tuning to sensitivity alone can miss the accuracy target by two orders of magnitude. The same modeling transfers to a cesium optically pumped magnetometer recording a human magnetocardiogram. As a digital twin, it predicts the gain from addressing each limiter, so sensors can be designed to the required metrics.
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All authors Nima Leclerc, Marco Capelli, Kevin James Rietwyk, Mark Dong, Dmitry Lyakh, Geoffrey Iwata, Brandon Rodenburg, Sean Oliver, Benedikt Kloss, Jin-Sung Kim, Stefan Bogdanovic, Yunheng Chen, Meysam Sharifzadeh Mirshekarloo, Cedric Weber, Marcus Doherty, Ethan Pratt, Joseph Hagmann
Systems and Control
LUCID: An Agentic AI Framework on Digital-Twin in the Loop for QoS-Guaranteeing Robotic Control
Hyeonsu Lyu, Minwoo Kim, Sehyun Ryu et al. (+1 more)
Cloud robotics relies on the timely uplink of high-volume sensing streams, yet dynamic environments continually shift the feasible combinations of trajectories, active-
robot count, and per-
robot QoS. Because existing approaches formulate trajectory planning (TP) and
radio resource management (RRM) as a single fixed optimization problem, they cannot reconfigure these coupled decisions as conditions evolve, resulting in transient QoS violations. However, evolving operator intents change which quantities-such as the active-
robot count and per-
robot QoS-are fixed, optimized, or relaxed. Furthermore, the computational cost of evaluating trajectory-dependent wireless conflicts has made it difficult to build large-scale Digital-Twin-in-the-Loop (DITL) testbeds responsive enough for such dynamic orchestration. We present LUCID, an LLM-
agent–orchestrated, uplink-aware cloud-robotics pipeline that moves TP–RRM from solving a fixed formulation to dynamically orchestrating optimization problem schemas within a DITL environment. Driven by the operator's high-level intent, LUCID treats the TP–RRM formulation as a bounded template whose variables, objectives, and constraints are dynamically configured, while SimBridge enables repeated ray-tracing evaluation by converting large-scale robotics scenes into wireless-ready DTs. By integrating collision-free path planning with a spectral-radius RRM validator, LUCID identifies wireless bottlenecks and restructures the problem schema on the fly to efficiently find the verified feasible state. Experiments confirm that LUCID robustly adapts to changing intents, active-
robot counts, and scenes, while a
multimodal surrogate model, FastConfigNet, reduces planning latency.
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All authors Hyeonsu Lyu, Minwoo Kim, Sehyun Ryu, Hyun Jong Yang
Systems and Control
Operator-Theoretic Stability and Observer Synthesis for Parameter-Dependent Vlasov–Maxwell Dynamics
Amadou Cissé and Mohamed Boutayeb
An operator–theoretic formulation is developed for the synthesis of parameter-dependent controllers and observers for the Vlasov–Maxwell system. The linearized dynamics are modeled as a non-autonomous
evolution system whose generators depend on measurable
plasma quantities. Well-posedness of the associated
evolution family is established together with uniform growth bounds. Parameter-dependent Lyapunov operators yield operator differential LMIs ensuring uniform exponential stability and observer convergence. An $H_\infty$ extension provides disturbance attenuation conditions consistent with the intrinsic energy structure of the coupled Vlasov–Maxwell equations. Galerkin projections lead to finite-dimensional LMIs consistent with the operator inequalities, enabling reliable numerical synthesis while preserving the analytical structure of the original model. Numerical results on a reduced Vlasov–Maxwell
benchmark confirm the predicted convergence properties.
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Systems and Control
Scalable Voltage-Stability Dataset Generation Via Boundary-Proximity Indicators Clustering
Rock Agon, Robin Preece and Jovica V. Milanović
This paper proposes a scalable framework for voltage-stability
dataset generation. Voltage-stability-constrained planning increasingly relies on machine-learning surrogates but training them requires large
datasets labelled by continuation power flow (CPF) results, which is computationally costly. To address this, this paper proposes a framework that uses hierarchical clustering on boundary-proximity indicators to reduce the number of required CPF evaluations. The proposed approach combines (i) uniform sampling of feasible operating space using Hit-and-Run Markov Chain Monte Carlo, (ii) structured stress directions via maximin Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), (iii) sensitivity-guided perturbations to target weak buses, and (iv) clustering-based representative CPF labelling that reconstructs the voltage stability margins of unlabelled operating points from representative cluster medoids. Results on the IEEE 39-bus system show that the proposed framework significantly reduces CPF evaluations by 95.45% while preserving high accuracy and boundary fidelity for both regression and classification tasks. The reduced surrogates remain structurally consistent with their full-CPF
dataset counterparts, demonstrating the suitability and scalability of the proposed approach for operation and planning optimization.
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Systems and Control
Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering for Efficient Annual Voltage Security Assessment in Very-High RES Penetrated Power Systems
Rock Agon, Robin Preece and Jovica V. Milanovic
Voltage security assessment in power systems with high renewable energy source (RES) penetration requires analyzing many operating conditions to capture variability and uncertainty, but simulating a full year of operating points is computationally costly - motivating the selection of representative operating points (ROPs). Most existing methods cluster demand and generation profiles, but similarity in these profiles does not guarantee similarity in voltage behavior, since reactive power limits, voltage-control actions, and nonlinear network interactions shape voltage response in ways that cannot be inferred from power profile patterns. This paper proposes an unsupervised learning framework that selects ROPs based on the system's actual voltage response: each operating point is represented by system-wide voltage-risk indices from AC power-flow solutions, Principal Component Analysis reduces dimensionality, and Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering with Ward linkage identifies representative voltage regimes. A comprehensive set of evaluation criteria then measures how well the selected ROPs reproduce the full year's voltage-security characteristics under normal and contingency conditions. On the IEEE Voltage Test System under very high RES penetration, the framework reduces the annual operating point set by 99.66 percent while reproducing full-year voltage behavior with 98.3 percent reconstruction accuracy in steady state and 93.4 percent in post-contingency response, outperforming existing injection-space clustering and heuristic sampling.
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Systems and Control
SafeLink-Agent: Agentic Maintenance for Adaptive Bitrate Controllers over Dynamic Starlink Networks
Hongjun Xie, Bowen Zhang, Genke Yang et al. (+1 more)
Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite broadband, represented by Starlink, is making high-resolution
video streaming feasible beyond fixed terrestrial coverage. However, Starlink access links change across time and regions, exposing adaptive bitrate (ABR) streaming to shifting throughput tails, latency,
volatility, and handover conditions. Existing ABR controllers are usually designed, tuned, or trained for specific network conditions, making it difficult to handle newly exposed hard Starlink profiles. This paper proposes SafeLink-
Agent, an agentic maintenance framework for ABR controllers over dynamic Starlink networks. SafeLink-
Agent summarizes exposed failures and uses a large
language model (LLM)-based agentic patch proposer to generate candidate patches, while replay verification determines whether each patch can be safely committed. The framework supports both rule-based controllers and learned controllers under the same maintenance workflow. Experiments on real Starlink networks show that SafeLink-
Agent reduces the severe-session ratio of RobustMPC from 2.60% to 0.40% and reduces cumulative severe sessions from 45 to 7 in rolling maintenance. For learned controllers, verified adaptive auditing lowers the average severe-session ratio from 39.01% to 9.79%. These results demonstrate that agentic maintenance can improve ABR robustness under dynamic Starlink access conditions.
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All authors Hongjun Xie, Bowen Zhang, Genke Yang, Pengcheng Luo
Systems and Control
Distributed Model Predictive Control for Optimal Consensus of Constrained Heterogeneous Multi-agent Systems
Nan Bai, Tao Liu, Qishao Wang et al. (+1 more)
This paper investigates the distributed optimal consensus control problem of constrained heterogeneous multi-
agent systems within a model predictive control (MPC) scheme. Both the control input sequence and the dynamically feasible consensus
equilibrium are optimized simultaneously within the proposed MPC framework to improve consensus performance, yielding a coupled constrained optimization problem at each prediction time. A distributed primal–dual
algorithm is developed to solve the resulting optimization problem, and locally verifiable conditions are derived to guarantee its convergence. Furthermore, sufficient terminal conditions are established for the proposed MPC framework to guarantee the recursive feasibility and asymptotic consensus of the closed-loop heterogeneous multi-
agent systems. Finally, numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
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All authors Nan Bai, Tao Liu, Qishao Wang, Zhisheng Duan
Systems and Control
Managing Inherent Risk: On the Conceptualization of Risk in Defense Systems
NIklas Braun, Leon J. Brettin, Marvin Loba et al. (+1 more)
Certain defense systems are, by nature, deployed in a civilian environment in order to serve a defensive function for that environment. However, the risk involved with their deployment and operation poses a challenge for the public acceptance of these systems. Compared to safety engineering for civilian systems, the risk constellation is quite different. While reducing risk of safety-critical systems is generally desirable, defense systems are required to produce intended mission effects, which may include harm to an attacking target. In both cases, not all risk can be eliminated. The complex risk constellation of defense systems has implications for the systems' designs. We compare the concepts of risk in existing standards from both the civilian and the military domains. An extended constellation of risks needs to be considered, including risk caused by external threats to security. By including this risk constellation in public communication about defense systems, we aim to stimulate a productive debate.
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All authors NIklas Braun, Leon J. Brettin, Marvin Loba, Markus Maurer
Systems and Control
Anytime Primal–Dual Certification of the Maximum Disturbance Radius in Robust MPC
Wenqi Cai, Muhammad Bakr Abdelghany, Kyriakos G. Vamvoudakis et al. (+1 more)
Adjustable-set robust model predictive control (MPC) characterizes a state-dependent maximum disturbance radius, which can be interpreted as a certified robustness reserve. Existing methods primarily focus on optimizing and propagating this reserve under in-set disturbances. This letter investigates how much reserve remains after a finite out-of-set disturbance without immediately re-solving the full optimization problem. To this end, we propose a two-sided reserve-depletion envelope formed by independent primal and dual correction hierarchies, which supply monotone lower and upper bounds, respectively. The envelope remains valid across active-set changes, has an online-computable width, and contracts monotonically under subspace expansion. Leveraging its finite-step exactness, we present a basis-first adaptive
algorithm that operates in an anytime manner: every completed reduced solve returns a valid certificate, enabling early termination once a prescribed tolerance is reached. Across the tested cases, numerical studies report no certificate violations and median speedups of up to 4.97x over warm-started full re-optimization at a 2% certificate-width tolerance.
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All authors Wenqi Cai, Muhammad Bakr Abdelghany, Kyriakos G. Vamvoudakis, Anthony Tzes
Systems and Control
Securing Cooperative Sensing in UAV Swarms Against Conformity-Driven Byzantine Attacks
Ruixing Ren, Junhui Zhao, Qiuping Li et al. (+3 more)
In integrated sensing and communication (
ISAC) enabled 6G unmanned aerial vehicle (
UAV) swarm networks, the widely adopted imitation-based conformity cooperation mechanism can be exploited by Byzantine attackers to fabricate false consensus, causing the effective error probability of normal
UAVs to evolve dynamically and far exceed their inherent sensing errors, which invalidates conventional fusion methods built on the independence assumption. This paper proposes a conformity-aware Byzantine-resilient fusion framework that couples evolutionary game theory with maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. First, the strategy updates of normal
UAVs are characterized by bounded-rational opinion dynamics, and the
evolution dynamics of the misinformation ratio together with its evolutionarily stable state (ESS) are derived under death birth updating. Three theoretical results are then established: under heterogeneous per-node sensing errors, the zeroth-order ESS depends on the error distribution only through its mean; a closed-form first-order weak-selection correction to the ESS is obtained, together with an exact mean-field fixed point valid for arbitrary selection intensity; and it is revealed that swarm level misinformation can overwhelm the majority if and only if the attack probability exceeds one half, with this threshold independent of both the sensing error and the malicious ratio.
Embedding the predicted error dynamics into a per-node MAP rule, the resulting fusion mechanism achieves nearly 100% situation-inference accuracy under different network
topologies, attack intensities, network scales, and sensing-error distributions, and maintains accuracy above 99% under +-20% parameter mismatch. In contrast, majority voting, reputation weighting, and independent fusion collapse completely once the majority-flip threshold is crossed.
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All authors Ruixing Ren, Junhui Zhao, Qiuping Li, He Fang, Jiamin Li, Dongming Wang
Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.CV
GAN-Based Semantic Communication for Image Transmission in IoV
Ruixing Ren, Shan Chen, Junhui Zhao et al. (+1 more)
For cooperative perception in the internet of vehicles, this paper proposes a generative
adversarial network-based semantic communication framework to address the efficiency and fidelity bottlenecks of traditional communication systems in visual data transmission under limited bandwidth and dynamic channel conditions. At the transmitter, the framework adopts a pyramid
attention network to extract semantic label maps and introduces a semantic priority preservation mechanism. It assigns differentiated weights to distinct semantic categories based on driving safety, guiding bit allocation and loss function design. At the receiver, an image reconstruction module integrating a coarse to-fine multi-resolution generator and multi-scale discriminator is designed. Combined with the temporal consistency branch, spatial pyramid pooling and class-aware convolutional layers, it achieves high-fidelity reconstruction of high-quality images from corrupted semantic labels. The model is trained with combined
adversarial, feature matching and perceptual losses, effectively improving semantic consistency and visual realism of generated images. Experimental results on the Cityscapes
dataset show that the proposed method outperforms existing counterparts in both semantic segmentation accuracy and reconstructed image quality, and maintains stable reconstruction performance under AWGN and Rayleigh channels.
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All authors Ruixing Ren, Shan Chen, Junhui Zhao, Xiaoke Sun
Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG
PhyMamba: Physics-Modulated Mamba for Robust Battery Health Prognostics
Sara Sameer, Yunyi Zhao, Wei Zhang et al. (+4 more)
Battery health prognostics is a core function in battery management systems (BMSs), yet long-horizon health forecasting from BMS signals remains challenging due to operating-condition dependency and sensor noise. In this paper, we propose PhyMamba, a two-stage physics-modulated Mamba framework that integrates electrochemical aging into sequence modelling. PhyMamba does not require explicit identification of internal aging parameters, which often relies on intrusive measurements. In stage-1, a lightweight Mamba encoder first processes BMS signals and produces a latent representation that is transformed via an aging parameterization module, into physics-informed aging features. In stage-2, a customized Mamba forecasting backbone performs multi-cycle prediction, where physics is tightly integrated to regulate the model's internal temporal updates toward degradation-consistent
evolution. Experiments on three public
datasets under multiple forecast horizons show that PhyMamba achieves the best aggregated performance, with an overall mean error reduction of 31.8% compared with a diverse range of baselines. PhyMamba also offers an optimized accuracy-efficiency trade-off, which supports practical deployment for robust battery health prognostics.
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All authors Sara Sameer, Yunyi Zhao, Wei Zhang, Minggang Zeng, Wenqing Li, Man-Fai Ng, Yonggang Wen
Systems and Control
Backup Control Barrier Function Synthesis using Sum-of-Squares Reachability
Jungbae Chun, Shima Sadat Mousavi, David E. J. van Wijk et al. (+3 more)
Backup control barrier functions (bCBFs) enforce safety for input-constrained nonlinear systems using a pre-certified backup set and controller, but their performance depends strongly on this prescribed pair. This letter develops a constructive method for synthesizing a less conservative backup pair via finite horizon sum-of-squares (SOS) backward reachability. Starting from an initial backup set, we compute an SOS-certified finite horizon backward reachable set and controller that satisfy safety and input constraints while steering trajectories to the original backup set. We then provide conditions under which this certified set becomes a valid backup set for a piecewise backup controller. The resulting backup pair is integrated into the bCBF framework to certify larger safe sets.
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All authors Jungbae Chun, Shima Sadat Mousavi, David E. J. van Wijk, Ersin Daş, Aaron D. Ames, Felix Biertümpfel
Systems and Control
AutoDRI: Bridging the Semantic Gap for Automated Design Rule Integration in CP-SAT-Based Cell Synthesis under Multi-Patterning
Yuhao Ren, Yucheng Wang, Zihao Chen et al. (+2 more)
Design-rule integration (DRI) remains a major bottleneck for scalable (Constraint Programming with SAT) CP-SAT-based standard
cell synthesis and rapid technology enablement at advanced nodes. It still depends heavily on manual effort and domain expertise. Moreover, existing low-level rule encodings are not expressive enough for emerging constraints such as cut-based rules under multi-patterning technology. This paper presents AutoDRI, a multi-
agent framework for automated design-rule integration in standard
cell synthesis. AutoDRI combines a
geometric semantic library, a standardized conflict-set encoding, a constructive multicolor-cut modeling method, and a feedback-driven multi-
agent flow to bridge the semantic gap between natural-
language design rules and executable CP-SAT constraints. In the reported experiments, AutoDRI achieves near-perfect rule-integration correctness across 41
cell benchmarks under 10+ complex rules, including colored cut-mask spacing rules, reaching 33/33 correct integrations with Gemini-3-pro and 32/33 with GPT-5.4, while maintaining runtime comparable to manual hard-coding and passing KLayout DRC and Cadence LVS.
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All authors Yuhao Ren, Yucheng Wang, Zihao Chen, Chung-Kuan Cheng, Zhiang Wang
Systems and Control
Graphon Design for Human-Machine Coordination under Bounded Rationality: Optimality of Stochastic Block Models
Zhewei Wang, Vu Anh Phi and Marcos M. Vasconcelos
Coordination is a desirable feature in multi-
agent systems, ranging from robotic swarms to socioeconomic networks. This paper is concerned with promoting coordination among heterogeneous
agents, e.g., machines and humans, interacting in a stag-hunt game. In our model the
agents exhibit bounded rationality at different levels, which leads to uncertainty and a propensity for errors during learning and decision-making processes. This paper addresses the problem of designing a network
topology that maximizes a global metric of coordination under such constraints. While optimizing over the discrete space of finite graphs is generally computationally intractable, we employ a mean-field approach to lift the problem into the space of graphons. Within this framework, we analyze
agents following a logit learning dynamics. Using calculus of variations, we show that for systems with a bimodal rationality profile, it suffices to search for optimal graphons in the ensemble of
stochastic block models. We then propose a water-filling
algorithm to find a locally optimal graphon. Finite graphs can then be sampled from the optimized graphon, bypassing the inherent combinatorial complexities of discrete graph optimization.
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Systems and Control
Observability Analysis for Fusion of Doppler Measurements in Multistatic Radar Near the Tx-Rx Baseline
Rong Yang, Yaakov Bar-Shalom and Leung Hong Huat Michael
This paper studies multistatic measurement fusion when a target lies within the Tx–Rx (Transmitter-Receiver) baseline ambiguity zone, with particular emphasis on configurations involving two closely spaced stationary Tx–Rx pairs. Such configurations provide overlapping detectable regions and extend the effective detection range compared with sparsely spaced multistatic systems. However, in this region, the accuracy of range and bearing measurements degrades rapidly, and Doppler measurements often remain the only reliable information source. As a result, target trajectory estimation becomes highly challenging, with observability being marginal or even completely lost. To address this problem, the observability of target trajectories is analyzed under various conditions, enabling system designers to assess system performance in advance. A Doppler-only measurement fusion approach is then developed, employing a multiple-initial-point Maximum Likelihood (ML) nonlinear
estimator for initial state estimation, followed by dynamic state updates using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Simulation results are presented and shown to be consistent with the observability analysis.
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Systems and Control · Cross-listed from cs.LG
Initialization Is Critical: Advancing Federated Short-Term Load Forecasting under Load Heterogeneity via Model Initialization
Jianing Chen, Vajiheh Farhadi, Yan Li et al. (+1 more)
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) provides essential information for numerous applications in modern power systems. However, accurate STLF often relies on fine-grained smart-meter data from distributed users, raising increasing concerns about data
privacy.
Federated learning (FL) has therefore emerged as a promising
privacy-preserving paradigm for STLF. Nevertheless, this paper reveals structured heterogeneity in clients' load data. Specifically, clients exhibit different responses to exogenous factors and distinct temporal load profiles, which can degrade forecasting performance in FL. To mitigate these issues, this paper studies the role of model initialization in
federated STLF, and proposes two initialization strategies from global and local perspectives. For global model initialization, when auxiliary public load data are available, a pretrained initialization strategy is developed to initialize the global model before
federated training, thereby reducing client drift during the training process. For local model initialization, we propose SLIAvg, a sequential local initialization strategy that promotes a more consistent training process by allowing participating clients to start from progressively adapted models within each communication round. Since the proposed strategies only modify the initialization process, they are compatible with most existing FL frameworks and
privacy-enhancing techniques. Experiments on real smart-meter data with two representative forecasting architectures demonstrate that the proposed strategies effectively improve forecasting performance, as evidenced by reduced client drift, improved convergence behavior, and lower forecasting errors.
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All authors Jianing Chen, Vajiheh Farhadi, Yan Li, Thomas La Porta