Papers

Part-of-speech (POS) tagging for Medieval Romance languages remains challenging due to orthographic variation, morphological complexity, and limited annotated resources. This paper presents a systematic empirical evaluation of large language models (LLMs) for POS tagging across three medieval varieties: Medieval Occitan, Medieval Catalan, and Medieval French. We compare traditional rule-based and statistical taggers with modern open-source LLMs under zero-shot prompting, few-shot prompting, monolingual fine-tuning, and cross-lingual transfer learning settings. Experiments on historically grounded datasets show that LLM-based approaches consistently outperform traditional taggers, with fine-tuning and multilingual training yielding the largest improvements. In particular, cross-lingual transfer learning substantially benefits under-resourced varieties, while targeted bilingual training can outperform broader multilingual configurations for specific target languages. The results highlight the importance of linguistic proximity and dataset characteristics when designing transfer strategies for historical NLP. These findings provide empirical insights into the applicability of modern neural methods to medieval text processing and provide practical guidance for deploying LLM-based POS tagging pipelines in digital humanities research. All code, models, and processed datasets are released for reproducibility.

Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can capture complex patterns of effect heterogeneity. We develop model-assisted randomization tests that combine these strengths without sample splitting. The key idea is to estimate an unsigned version of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from the covariance structure of residualized outcomes, while leaving the realized assignments for randomization inference. The remaining sign can be chosen to best fit the observed outcomes. We establish identification and consistency for the proposed unsigned CATE estimators, as well as validity for the CATE-assisted randomization tests. Across synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments, the CATE-assisted randomization tests control Type I error and achieve higher power than covariate-adjusted and sample-split alternatives. Finally, we show that the assignment-free CATE estimates can be used to discover heterogeneous subgroups and test subgroup-specific treatment effects.

Gaussian smoothing has emerged as an effective technique for reducing the sample complexity of optimal transport. In this paper, we study the two-sample plug-in estimator of the Gaussian-smoothed Wasserstein cost \(T_p^{(\sigma)}(\mu,\nu)=W_p(\mu*\gamma_\sigma,\nu*\gamma_\sigma)^p\) on \(\R^d\). For fixed smoothing and finite polynomial moments \(M_{q_\mu}(\mu)<\infty\), \(M_{q_\nu}(\nu)<\infty\), with \(q_\mu,q_\nu>p\), we establish upper bounds in probability of order \(\rho_{q_\mu,p,d}(m)+\rho_{q_\nu,p,d}(n)\). Here \(\rho_{q,p,d}(N)=N^{-(q-p)/(q+d)}\) for \(p<q<d+2p\), \(N^{-1/2}\log N\) at \(q=d+2p\), and \(N^{-1/2}\) for \(q>d+2p\). This order also holds in expectation under \(q_\mu,q_\nu\ge2p\). When the smoothed population distance is positive, the cost bound yields this rate for the distance itself. For \(p>1\) and \(q_\mu,q_\nu>d+2p\), we also derive a first-order expansion, a separated two-sample central limit theorem, and a sample-splitting variance estimator.

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse approximations. A prominent class of such methods - sub-network Laplace approximations, constructs surrogates by restricting attention to a small subset of parameters. Existing approaches in this family typically rely on diagonal, layer-wise, or other architectural heuristics for subset selection, which ignore cross-parameter interactions and lack formal optimality guarantees. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the sub-network Laplace paradigm. We prove that all sub-network Laplace methods systematically underestimate the predictive variance of the full Laplace posterior, and that this bias decreases monotonically as the retained sub-matrix expands. Leveraging this insight, we propose two principled, analytically grounded sub-network Hessian approximations: Gradient-Laplace selects parameters with the largest average squared gradients of the model output with respect to the parameters over a reference dataset; while Greedy-Laplace iteratively refines this selection by accounting for off-diagonal interactions in the precision matrix. We establish theoretical guarantees characterizing their optimality properties and show that Gradient-Laplace provably outperforms existing heuristic approaches. Extensive numerical studies across diverse settings indicate that these methods perform strongly relative to existing benchmarks.

Ecologists are increasingly expected to inform management decisions under uncertainty, yet most analytical workflows stop at statistical inference. Bayesian decision theory provides a coherent framework to bridge this gap by propagating posterior uncertainty to evaluate alternative actions through utility functions, but remains underused in ecology. Here, we present a practical workflow for implementing Bayesian decision theory using standard Bayesian tools, illustrated with two case studies: wolf management in France, where the decision is the number of wolves to remove under uncertain population dynamics, and invasive muskrat management in the Netherlands, where control effort is allocated across space. In both cases, expected utility integrates posterior uncertainty and management trade-offs. Optimal decisions emerge as compromises between competing objectives. For wolves, optimal harvest balances removal benefits and population risk. For muskrats, optimal effort increases with the importance of population reduction and is unevenly allocated across provinces. Bayesian decision theory provides a formal interface between scientists, who characterize ecological systems and uncertainty, and decision-makers, who define objectives, values and trade-offs. By making these trade-offs explicit, it enhances transparency and relevance for management. It also provides a common framework for bringing together Bayesian statistics, decision analysis and risk analysis, strengthening the link between ecological inference and action.

Clustering high-dimensional data is especially challenging when cluster distributions are heavy tailed and only approximately elliptical. Existing high-dimensional methods are largely built for Gaussian or other light-tailed models, whereas classical robust elliptical procedures are mostly low dimensional or rely on fully parametric radial families. We propose a semiparametric elliptical mixture clustering framework with cluster-specific centers, an unknown common radial generator, and a common sparse precision-shape matrix, together with a data-driven rule for selecting the number of clusters. A generalized expectation-maximization (GEM) algorithm is developed by combining transformed-radius estimation of the radial generator, radial-score center updates, and a Tyler-POET-GLASSO update for the common precision-shape matrix. The method avoids specifying a parametric radial family and remains computationally feasible in high dimensions. We establish high-dimensional consistency for the estimated model components and the excess misclustering error. Simulation studies and a handwritten-digit application demonstrate the competitive performance and robustness of the proposed method, particularly in heavy-tailed elliptical settings.

Muon and its variants have shown strong empirical performance in a variety of deep learning tasks. Existing convergence analyses of Muon rely on smoothness assumptions, though arguably the most successful function class for developing deep learning methods (such as AdaGrad, Shampoo, Schedule-Free and more) has been the class of convex and Lipschitz functions. In this paper we question whether the classical convex Lipschitz model is a useful one for understanding Muon. Our answer is no. We show that Muon does not converge on the class of convex and Lipschitz functions, regardless of the choice of learning rate schedule. We also show that error feedback restores convergence of Muon and all the non-Euclidean subgradient methods with momentum. However, this theoretical fix using error feedback degrades the performance of Muon in two representative settings for image classification (CIFAR-10) and language modeling (nanoGPT on FineWeb-Edu 10B). Our conclusion is that convex Lipschitz theory, despite having a prominent role in the design of practical methods for deep learning, is not the most suited one for Muon. This suggests that Muon's success must come from structure absent from this model, most plausibly related to smoothness.

Machine Learning (ML) models trained on complex health surveys such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) often ignore primary sampling units, stratification variables, and sampling weights. This practice violates the independence assumptions of standard evaluation methods. As a result, estimates become biased, uncertainty is underestimated, and fairness assessments fail to reflect population-level disparities. We propose Survey-aware Machine Learning (SaML), a nine-step guideline that incorporates survey design metadata across the ML lifecycle. Through a scoping review of 16 methodological papers, we summarize existing work on weighted model training, design-based cross-validation, and survey-adjusted performance evaluation. We also identify gaps in hyperparameter tuning and deployment. We provide task-specific guidance that clarifies which steps are required for different analytical objectives. SaML provides a checklist for valid population inference from survey data.

We introduce a unified framework for learning stochastic dynamics from distributional observations and discretely observed trajectories. The key contribution is to combine soft law constraints, which regularize fitting to empirical distributions, with path-dependent supervision, which captures temporal structure that marginal distributions alone cannot identify. We formulate the problem as a discrete path-dependent McKean-Vlasov control problem, penalizing endpoint, intermediate marginal, and joint sampled-path laws within a single objective. Its optimality system takes the form of a McKean-Vlasov forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE), in which the marginal terms act continuously in time while the path-law term instead induces conditional adjoint jumps at the observation dates. We derive the reduced FBSDE for quadratic control cost and constant diffusion, establish local well-posedness for a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) path-law formulation, and develop a sample-based neural solver with causal representations. Experiments on synthetic transport, latent face transport, and human motion validate the framework. In particular, a two-state AMASS experiment under path-law supervision captures both low-to-high and high-to-low transitions, which marginal supervision alone cannot distinguish.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has emerged as a powerful algorithm for improving the reasoning capabilities of language models, but often fails to improve small models due to sparse rewards on difficult tasks. Existing works mitigate this issue by leveraging a larger model, either to provide hints for rollouts or to provide dense reward signals through knowledge distillation (KD). However, this assumes the existence of such an oracle, and training one can significantly increase total training time. In this work, we propose CoDistill-GRPO, a co-distillation algorithm that simultaneously trains a large and a small model by maximizing carefully designed GRPO objectives. The two models learn from each other: the small model uses an on-policy KD reward to learn from the large model's distribution, while the large model is updated using rollouts generated by the small model with importance reweighting, reducing the computational overhead of rollout generation. We show that CoDistill-GRPO substantially improves small model performance over standard GRPO on mathematical benchmarks across both Qwen and Llama models. Specifically, with Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, we observe an accuracy increase of over 11.6 percentage points over the base model and an additional 6.0 percentage points over GRPO on the Minerva dataset. Interestingly, the larger model (Qwen2.5-Math-7B) trained with CoDistill-GRPO nearly matches standard GRPO performance despite training on small-model rollouts. This highlights CoDistill-GRPO as a cost-effective alternative to GRPO for larger models, yielding an approximate 18% speedup, which may be of independent interest.

Large-scale machine learning models are trained on clusters of machines that exhibit heterogeneous performance due to hardware variability, network delays, and system-level instabilities. In such environments, time complexity rather than iteration complexity becomes the relevant performance metric for optimization algorithms. Recent work by Tyurin and Richtárik (2023) established the first time complexity analysis for parallel first-order stochastic optimization, proposing Rennala SGD as a time-optimal method for smooth nonconvex optimization. However, Rennala SGD is fundamentally a modification of SGD, and variance reduction techniques are known to improve the iteration complexity of SGD. In this work, we investigate whether variance reduction can also improve time complexity in heterogeneous systems. We show that, under a mean-squared smoothness assumption, variance reduction can improve time complexity in relevant parameter regimes. To this end, we propose Rennala MVR, a variance-reduced extension of Rennala SGD based on momentum-based variance reduction, and analyze its oracle and time complexity. We establish lower bounds for time complexity under these assumptions. On a stochastic quadratic benchmark, experiments with the exact method support the theory, while neural-network experiments with a practical inexact variant show similar empirical gains over Rennala SGD.

Inverse optimization (IO) seeks to infer the parameters of a decision-maker's objective from observed context–action data. We study noiseless IO, where demonstrations are generated by a ground-truth objective. We provide a high-probability ${O}(\frac{d}{T})$ generalization bound for the induced action set, where $d$ is the number of unknown parameters and $T$ is the size of the training dataset. We strengthen these guarantees under additional conditions that ensure uniqueness of the chosen action, bringing our IO guarantees in line with best-arm identification results in the bandit literature. We further show that the ${O}(\frac{d}{T})$ rate is tight over all consistent estimators considered here, and extend the result to both instantaneous and cumulative regret. Notably, the resulting regret lower bound matches the corresponding upper bounds in the adversarial setting, indicating that the stochastic IO setting is effectively adversarial for the class of estimators studied here. Finally, we propose a parameter-free algorithm with lower per-iteration complexity than generic solvers. Experiments validate the predicted rates and illustrate the tightness of our bounds.

We study online estimation in latent-variable models by recasting the problem as tracking a moving empirical equilibrium. Standard online EM and stochastic approximation analyses primarily study convergence toward the population parameter and typically do not isolate the empirical batch optimum from the online tracking error at finite horizon. Our framework decomposes the online estimate into the frozen batch equilibrium at the current running statistic and a tracking lag that captures the algorithm's delay behind this moving target. We prove a batch-to-online transfer theorem: provided $\lVert e_T \rVert_{L^{2}} = o(T^{-1/2})$, the online estimator inherits the batch central limit theorem and the sharp first-order risk constant. Our key observation is that the empirical optimum evolves on a smooth equilibrium manifold indexed by the running statistic. An $m$-th order equilibrium-jet predictor combined with an order-$\nu$ frozen corrector yields localized tracking rates $O(T^{-\nu(m+1)})$. We formalize EM-compressibility and EM-jet$^R$-compressibility as the structural conditions that make the equilibrium response and the Newton corrector evaluable from a retained streaming statistic. The theory is instantiated in latent linear Gaussian covariance estimation, where the first-order scheme operates on a compressed $d \times d$ statistic with explicit finite-sample risk envelopes and a certified restart rule.

We propose Broximal Gradient Descent (BroxGD), a projection-free sister method to projected gradient descent for constrained optimization. Its forward–backward construction replaces the proximal backward operation by the broximal operation of Gruntkowska et al. (2025). Instead of projecting, each step minimizes a linear function over the intersection of the constraint set $\mathcal{X}$ and a ball $\mathbb{B}(x_k,t_k)$ centered at the current iterate $x_k$, of suitable radius $t_k>0$: \[ x_{k+1}\in\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal{X}\cap\mathbb{B}(x_k,t_k)}\langle\nabla f(x_k),z\rangle. \] We develop a comprehensive convergence theory spanning a wide range of optimization regimes and radius rules. We expect BroxGD to find many applications and inspire numerous extensions, much like projected gradient descent. Our contribution is theoretical; potential applications and toy experiments illustrate the method and suggest directions for future work.

This paper investigates the learning theory of Transformer networks for regression tasks on the compact Euclidean domain $[0,1]^d$ and $d$-dimensional compact Riemannian manifolds. We propose a novel constructive approximation framework for Transformers that builds local approximations of the target function and aggregates them into a global approximation via softmax partition of unity. This approach leverages the attention mechanism to achieve spatial localization through affine transformations of the input. The softmax activation plays a crucial role in aggregating local approximations to a global output. From an approximation perspective, we prove that a dense Transformer equipped with only two encoder blocks and standard single-hidden-layer point-wise feed-forward networks can achieve a uniform $\varepsilon$-approximation error for $\alpha$-Hölder continuous functions with $\alpha \in (0,1]$ using $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-d/\alpha})$ total parameters. Building upon this approximation guarantee, we establish a near minimax-optimal generalization error bound of order $\mathcal{O}\big(n^{-\frac{2\alpha}{2\alpha+d}} \log n\big)$ for the empirical risk minimizer, where $n$ is the training data size. The Transformer architecture studied in this paper is dense, shallow and wide, and employs softmax activation and sinusoidal positional encodings, closely reflecting practical implementations.

Optimal transport (OT) has emerged as a fundamental tool in modern machine learning, yet its computational cost remains a significant bottleneck for large-scale applications. While harnessing the massive parallelism of modern GPU hardware is critical for efficiency, the de facto standard Sinkhorn algorithm, despite its ease of parallelization, often suffers from slow convergence in challenging problems. More recently, the sparse-plus-low-rank quasi-Newton method offers a balance between convergence rate and per-iteration complexity; however, its efficiency on GPUs is severely hindered by the serial nature of sparse matrix symbolic analysis and irregular memory access patterns. To bridge this gap, we present cuRegOT, a high-performance GPU solver tailored for entropic-regularized OT. We introduce a suite of algorithmic and architectural optimizations, including an amortized symbolic analysis strategy to mitigate CPU bottlenecks, an asynchronous Sinkhorn iterates generation mechanism, and a fused kernel for bandwidth-efficient gradient evaluation. These strategies are backed by rigorous theoretical guarantees ensuring algorithmic convergence. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that cuRegOT achieves significant speedups over state-of-the-art GPU-based solvers across a variety of benchmark tasks.

Mode separation, namely how sharply a distribution fragments into barrier-separated clusters, is a fundamental geometric property of densities, difficult to quantify in high dimensions. It is structurally distinct from dispersion, yet existing tools fall short: differential entropy rises with spread regardless of fragmentation, PCA orders directions by variance regardless of barriers, and mutual information requires a mixture decomposition one usually does not have. We measure mode separation through a single stochastic process intrinsic to the density: a unique reversible diffusion with $f$ as its stationary distribution and constant scalar diffusion coefficient. We extract two readouts from its autocovariance matrix: SSA (Sum of Squared Autocorrelations), a scalar barrier-sensitive measure; and DA (Dominant Autocorrelation directions), linear projections ordered by metastability rather than variance. Under an isotropic-Gaussian null, we derive a closed-form spectrum for the empirical autocovariance that generalizes Marchenko–Pastur, with an analytic upper edge that selects the lag at which DA is read off. Both readouts use only samples and a score function, scaling to high dimensions through pretrained score-based generative models via Tweedie's identity. We apply our framework to three settings: (i) synthetic Gaussian mixtures, where SSA tracks mutual information; (ii) SDXL text-to-image generations, where SSA and DA capture structure that entropy and PCA miss; and (iii) molecular dynamics of alanine dipeptide, where DA recovers the known slow backbone dihedrals from static samples alone.

Unlabeled data are increasingly prevalent in contemporary economic studies, yet their effective use for improving prediction remains challenging because the outcomes are often costly or even infeasible to observe. Machine learning methods can help label these data and achieve high predictive accuracy, but they often lack interpretability. In this paper, we propose a Prediction-powered Unified Model Averaging (PUMA) framework to combine linear regression and machine learning methods, achieving a balance between interpretation and prediction. Unlike existing studies on prediction-powered inference, our approach is the first to jointly address uncertainty arising from model misspecification, power tuning parameter selection, and the choice of machine learning algorithms by using model averaging. Theoretically, under mild conditions, we establish the in-sample and out-of-sample asymptotic prediction optimality, estimation consistency, and asymptotic distribution of the PUMA estimator. Extensive simulations and a real-world application further demonstrate the empirical advantages of the proposed method over existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Advanced manufacturing technologies allow for the production of intricate parts featuring high shape complexity and spatially-varying material composition. Data fusion of point clouds with chromatic attributes provides 4D point clouds, a compact and informative representation that encodes both shape and material information. In this paper, we present a registration-free framework for Simultaneous Monitoring of shApe and Color (SMAC) via 4D point clouds. The proposed framework leverages Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties to capture and monitor geometric features and the relationship between shape and surface color. A combined monitoring scheme is proposed to effectively detect shape deformations and color anomalies, along with a spatially-aware post-signal diagnostic procedure to determine the source of change and localize color anomalies. Importantly, neither component relies on registration or mesh reconstruction, eliminating error-prone and computationally expensive preprocessing steps. A Monte Carlo simulation study and a case study on functionally graded materials demonstrate that SMAC achieves effective detection performance, particularly for subtle defects, while providing diagnostic capabilities to identify the source and location of anomalies.

Unbalanced optimal transport (UOT) extends classical optimal transport to measures with different total masses, but statistical guarantees for Monge-type estimation remain limited. We study unbalanced transport with quadratic cost and Kullback-Leibler marginal penalties and argue that the natural population target is not a map alone, but a transport-growth pair. Consequently, we develop two estimators for the transport-growth pairs under several setups: an optimal transport plan-based estimator for a general case, and a kernel-based estimator for a case with smooth densities. We also show that an error of the estimator achieves the minimax optimal rate by deriving a matching lower bound of the minimax risk. Our main technical contribution is a value-based stability reduction that converts perturbations of the UOT objective into transport and growth risks through a UOT gap condition. These results provide a statistical foundation for Monge-type estimation in unbalanced optimal transport.

We study solving large-scale fixed-point equation \(x^\star=\bar F(x^\star)\) with decomposition. Standard strict decomposition assigns each agent a disjoint block and evaluates updates using only owned coordinates. For most operators, however, a block update may depend on variables outside the block. Truncating these dependencies by strict decomposition changes the mean operator and creates structural bias that cannot be removed by more samples, smaller stepsizes, or additional consensus. We therefore propose Core-Halo decomposition, which separates write ownership from read-only evaluation context: each agent updates its own core and reads from an overlapping halo. By aligning the Core-Halo decomposition with the block-dependence structure of $\bar F$, the original fixed-point problem can be implemented faithfully in a decentralized multi-agent system. We further characterize the fundamental obstruction faced by strict decomposition through a Bellman closure condition and a blockwise bias lower bound, showing that local-only updates can alter the original fixed-point operator. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments across a range of application settings, and demonstrate that Core-Halo achieves near-centralized performance while retaining the parallelism benefits of decentralization.

Latent space models have been widely adopted in modeling network data. Developing statistical inference for estimated model parameters enables quantifying associated uncertainty and is pivotal for downstream tasks. Despite recent progress on statistical inference of maximum likelihood estimation, crucial gaps remain between asymptotic theoretical guarantees and practical use. Specifically, how are the oracle maximum likelihood estimators related to the solutions produced by algorithms in practice? Can rigorous guarantees be established for existing algorithms without unnecessary restrictions? To address these fundamental questions, we develop a unified analytical framework that bridges theory and practice of statistical inference for latent space models. First, for the maximum likelihood estimation, we relax the spectral-multiplicity constraint in the existing asymptotic theory to broaden the applicability. Second, we overcome the dependence on unknown true parameters in prior algorithmic analyses by developing novel adaptive criteria and theoretical tools. For the widely used algorithm based on the projected gradient descent and the singular value thresholding, we explicitly connect their outputs to the maximum likelihood estimator without relying on unknown information. Our results provide a solid foundation for practically useful and statistically principled statistical inference in network analysis.

We study the posterior contraction rate of Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for solving a general class of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs). We focus on learning of the elliptic equation with a non-homogeneous Dirichlet boundary condition from independent and noisy measurements collected both inside the domain and on the boundary. Assuming that the PDE admits a strong solution in a Hölder space and using with a suitably constructed prior on the neural network weights, we prove that the posterior distribution concentrates around the exact solution at a near-minimax rate. Furthermore, the chosen prior is rate-adaptive: the posterior contracts at an (almost) optimal rate without prior knowledge of the smoothness level of the exact solution. Our results provide statistical guarantees for uncertainty quantification of PDEs via Bayesian PINNs.

We consider a broad class of semiparametric regression models in which the conditional distribution of the response takes the form $f\{Y|\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{\beta}+m(z),\phi\}$, known up to a parametric component $\boldsymbol{\beta}$ of diverging dimension $p$, a smooth function $m(\cdot)$, and a dispersion parameter $\phi$. The existing literature on such models has focused on semiparametric efficiency for $\boldsymbol{\beta}$, treating $\phi$ and $m(\cdot)$ as nuisances and largely ignoring finite-sample bias. Yet this bias can be substantial, particularly when $p$ is large relative to $n$ or the dispersion is high, and it can seriously undermine inference for $\boldsymbol{\beta}$; moreover, $\phi$ is often of direct scientific interest. We therefore propose SABRE, a general calibration framework for semiparametric estimation and inference, which calibrates an initial estimator against its model-implied expectation under a tractable parametric approximation to the semiparametric model. For generalized partially linear models, we show that SABRE reduces the bias of both $\boldsymbol{\beta}$ and $\phi$, accommodates a diverging parameter dimension without sparsity, and preserves the first-order variance and semiparametric efficiency of the initial estimator; the joint construction also improves estimation and inference for $m(\cdot)$. Simulation studies and an application to Alzheimer's disease genetics association analysis demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of SABRE in reducing bias and improving inference.

Multi-institutional electronic health record (Multi-EHR) data have emerged as a powerful resource for developing predictive models to support clinical decisions and for generating reliable real-world evidence. By aggregating information from diverse patient populations and institutions, they enhance the robustness and generalizability of models and findings. However, analyzing multi-EHR remains challenging because disparate institutions rarely map all data elements to common ontologies, and raw EHR codes are often overly granular and institution-specific, fragmenting representations of the same clinical concept. Hence, integrative analysis must overcome two key hurdles: harmonizing codes with the same clinical meaning (synonymy), and aligning institutional feature spaces. To address these challenges, we propose SMILE, a Spherical Mixture Integration for Latent Embedding alignment across multi-source feature spaces, where embeddings from heterogeneous sources serve as privacy-preserving summaries of clinical concepts and sparse relational pairs provide weak supervision. Synonymy is modeled via a mixture of von Mises-Fisher distributions, yielding unified representations of semantically equivalent raw codes. We develop a composite quasi-likelihood estimator with non-asymptotic error bounds for the latent representations and mixture mean directions and consistent synonym-cluster recovery, quantifying the gains from integrating multiple sources and knowledge-graph information. Simulations and a multi-institutional EHR application demonstrate improved alignment and synonym clustering.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as automated evaluators of AI systems, including in high-stakes applications. In this role, LLMs are used to generate judgments about the quality, appropriateness, or even safety of model outputs. This approach is motivated by practical constraints. Expert human ratings are costly and difficult to scale, whereas LLM ratings can be produced quickly at low cost. However, current approaches to deploying LLM evaluators are ad hoc, typically limited to reporting agreement metrics between human and LLM judges as a justification for substitution of human ratings, and lack a formal basis for study design. This paper (1) shifts the role of the LLM judge from substitutive to auxiliary, and (2) formulates the LLM-as-a-judge paradigm as one of augmenting human evaluation through a two-stage sampling design, where LLM evaluations are measured for all observations at the first stage and human ratings are partially observed for a subsample at the second stage. We propose to use a doubly robust estimator from the missing data literature, which takes advantage of the robustness property against the prediction model, since the missingness model is known by design. Using the asymptotic variance of this estimator, we propose how sample sizes of human and LLM ratings can be determined to achieve a targeted level of power. We also show that a study can be efficiently designed by allocating more human ratings for types of evaluations where the predictability of LLM ratings is not high. To the best of our knowledge, there is very little guidance on how much human oversight should be retained when validating benchmarks.

Density estimation and reliable prediction regions for outputs are crucial in supervised and unsupervised learning. While conformal prediction effectively generates coverage-guaranteed regions, it struggles with multi-dimensional outputs due to reliance on one-dimensional nonconformity scores. To address this, we introduce CONTRA: CONformal prediction region via normalizing flow TRAnsformation. CONTRA utilizes the latent spaces of normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances from the center. This allows for the mapping of high-density regions in latent space to sharp prediction regions in the output space, surpassing traditional hyperrectangular or elliptical conformal regions. Further, for scenarios where other predictive models are favored over flow-based models, we extend CONTRA to enhance any such model with a reliable prediction region by training a simple normalizing flow on the residuals. We demonstrate that both CONTRA and its extension maintain guaranteed coverage probability and outperform existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions across various datasets. We conclude that CONTRA is an effective tool for (conditional) density estimation, addressing the under-explored challenge of delivering multi-dimensional prediction regions.

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a foundational tool for unsupervised representation learning, yet its high-dimensional theory remains largely limited to single-component recovery. We develop an asymptotically exact mean-field theory for multi-component online ICA, capturing the coupling induced by simultaneous learning and orthogonalization. In the high-dimensional limit, the joint empirical distribution of learned estimates and ground-truth components converges to a deterministic process, yielding a closed ODE system for the overlap matrix between learned directions and true components. This characterization reveals a genuinely multi-component, initialization-driven phase structure: a decoupled regime, where estimates align with distinct components and evolve nearly independently, and a competition regime, where overlapping initializations induce orthogonality-driven conflicts, slow reorientation, and delayed convergence. Our steady-state analysis gives explicit learnability boundaries and competition conditions linking step size, data moments, and initialization. These conditions show that larger higher-order moments and competition shrink the stable learning-rate window, increase convergence times, and predict a staircase phenomenon in which the number of recoverable components changes discretely with the learning rate. Experiments on synthetic data and hyperspectral remote sensing data validate the predicted trajectories and phase behavior.

Empirical Bayes methods can improve inference on unobservable individual effects by borrowing strength across units. This paper proposes nonparametric empirical Bayes confidence intervals (NP-EBCIs) for unobservable individual effects in a normal means model. The oracle intervals are constructed from posterior quantiles under a point-identified, fully nonparametric prior; feasible intervals replace these quantiles with nonparametric estimates. The NP-EBCIs are asymptotically exact in the sense that both their conditional and marginal coverage probabilities converge to the nominal level. The flexibility of this nonparametric construction has an unavoidable statistical cost. We demonstrate that posterior quantiles, unlike posterior means, inherit the severe ill-posedness of nonparametric deconvolution: the minimax optimal estimation rate is logarithmic. This logarithmic rate is minimax optimal for errors in the conditional coverage probability, and the resulting errors in the marginal coverage probability also vanish at the same logarithmic rate. Despite these slow asymptotic rates, simulations show that the NP-EBCIs remain close to nominal coverage when the prior is non-Gaussian, and deliver substantial length reductions relative to intervals that treat each unit in isolation.

The population dynamics of molecules, cells, and organisms are governed by a number of unknown forces. In the last decade, population dynamics have predominantly been modeled with Wasserstein gradient flows. However, since gradient flows minimize free energy, they fail to capture important dynamical properties, such as periodicity. In this work, we propose a change in perspective by considering dynamics that minimize a population-level action under a damped Wasserstein Lagrangian. By deriving the corresponding Hamiltonian equations of motion, we formalize Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics, a structured class of second-order dynamics that encompasses classical mechanics, quantum mechanics, and gradient flows. We then propose WLM as the first algorithm that learns these second-order dynamics from observed marginals, without specifying the Lagrangian. By directly learning the population mechanics, WLM can both forecast and interpolate unseen marginals, and outperforms existing gradient flow and flow matching methods across a wide range of dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.