Papers

We study the problem of denoising observations \(Y_i=X_i+Z_i\), where the latent variables \(X_i\) are sampled from a low-dimensional manifold in \(\mathbb{R}^n\) and the noise variables \(Z_i\) are isotropic Gaussian. We propose a convex-relaxation estimator that first reduces dimension by principal component analysis and then projects the observations onto the convex hull of the projected latent manifold. We construct a statistical oracle that estimates its supporting hyperplanes from empirical Gaussian tail probabilities of the noisy sample. Under a lower-mass condition on the latent distribution, we prove finite-sample guarantees for the oracle and derive error bounds for the resulting denoiser. The analysis combines risk bounds for least-squares projection under convex constraints with entropy bounds for convex hulls. We also verify the assumptions of the framework for a Cryo-Electron Microscopy observation model by establishing suitable covering number and Lipschitz estimates for the associated group action and imaging operators.

Large-scale portfolio choice is highly sensitive to estimation error, making the preliminary asset selection essential in empirical implementation. Existing selection rules typically rely on scalar returns or low dimensional high frequency summaries, and thus discard intraday risk dynamics that may be relevant for risk adjusted allocation. We propose Metric Dependence Screening (MDS), an asset selection procedure that incorporates high frequency information as object valued data. Each asset day observation is represented as a point-curve object combining daily return with an intraday risk state curve, equipped with a weighted product metric that preserves both reward information and within day risk dynamics. MDS ranks assets by a Fréchet variation based dependence score, measuring how much a risk adjusted target explains the metric dispersion of the asset representations. This yields a simple two stage portfolio procedure: MDS first reduces the investable universe, and standard mean-variance or minimum variance allocation is then applied. We develop a target slicing estimator and establish concentration, sure selection, and rank consistency guarantees under $\alpha$-mixing time series dependence and ultrahigh dimensionality. Simulations show that MDS performs well across both Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings. Using high frequency data for $2938$ Chinese A-share stocks from July 2023 to December 2025, we demonstrate that MDS improves out of sample portfolio performance over return based and scalar dependence based benchmarks, highlighting the value of preserving intraday risk dynamics.

In 2011, Judea Pearl received the Turing Award, considered the Nobel Prize in Computing, for fundamental contributions to artificial intelligence through the development of a calculus for probabilistic and causal reasoning. It includes pioneering the development of causal discovery algorithms. These computer algorithms can analyze large multivariate datasets and automatically discover the causal relationships among the constituent variables. They have been widely used in many critical fields such as medicine and economics to support decisions. However, to our knowledge, they have not been leveraged in law. This paper attempts to alleviate this gap by investigating whether causal discovery algorithms can be leveraged for automated generation of legal arguments. To that end, a novel legal dataset is prepared by identifying 17 legal concepts, such as physical assault and property dispute. A curated collection of 150 homicide cases are annotated with these concepts, e.g., a case is annotated with physical assault only if a physical assault had been reported in that case. Subsequently, a selected set of widely-used causal discovery algorithms is applied to the annotated dataset to discover the causal relationships between the legal concepts. Additionally, the degrees of belief associated with the discovered relationships are quantified in mathematical probabilities. It is shown that some of the causal relationships help generate viable legal arguments, e.g., if one could establish that a physical assault has not taken place during a homicide, it should be a sufficient condition (with probability 1) to establish that the homicide has not been committed due to a property-related dispute. Thus, this paper shows that causal discovery algorithms can be helpful in generating legal arguments, opening up avenues for promising future endeavors.

Gaussian mixture noise can model non-Gaussian noise and also be used when outliers are present in measurements. For deterministic maximum likelihood direction finding in Gaussian mixture noise, the Space-Alternating Generalized Expectation-maximization (SAGE) algorithm, an extension of the expectation-maximization algorithm, was applied and designed by Kozick and Sadler twenty odd years ago, which simultaneously updates DOA estimates at each iteration and cannot properly converge under unequal signal powers. In this paper, the Alternating Expectation-Conditional Maximization (AECM) algorithm, an extension of the SAGE algorithm, is applied and designed, which utilizes multiple less informative versions of the complete data and the golden section search method to update DOA estimates at each iteration sequentially (one by one). Theoretical analysis reveals that the AECM algorithm possesses nearly the same computational complexity of each iteration as the SAGE algorithm. However, simulation results prove that the AECM algorithm exhibits faster stable convergence and is more attractive in computation. Importantly, the AECM algorithm, unlike existing subspace based robust DOA estimation methods, can still be used when signals are coherent.

A run of all failures, a run of all successes, or complete separation in a logistic regression each tempts the analyst to declare a probability of exactly zero or one. The central message of this paper is that all three phenomena share a common structure: finite sequential data justify practical boundary statements of the form $p\leq\varepsilon$ or $p\geq1-\varepsilon$, but not exact boundary probabilities. The paper's contribution is to unify these three settings under a single reverse-martingale framework and to derive a stopping rule, $\tau_{\mathrm{RM}}$, that requires three conditions simultaneously – boundary closeness $B_n\leq\varepsilon$, uncertainty width $W_n\leq w$, and trajectory stability $r_n\leq\eta$ – rather than boundary closeness alone. The reverse-martingale view recasts boundary degeneracy as a property of the limiting conditional law $M_\infty=\E(Y\given\G_\infty)$ rather than a finite-sample event, complementing classical one-sided binomial tests and Wald's sequential probability ratio test without replacing them. Numerical studies across Bernoulli rare-event trials, low- and high-dimensional logistic regression, controlled risk trajectories, and a real health-economics data set demonstrate that boundary closeness alone is an unreliable stopping signal, and that the stability condition separates transient apparent certainty from genuine limiting degeneracy.

Comparing conditional distributions is a fundamental challenge in statistics and machine learning, with applications across a wide range of domains. While proposed methods for measuring discrepancies using kernel embeddings of distributions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) provide powerful non-parametric techniques, the existing literature remains fragmented and lacks a unified theoretical treatment. This paper addresses this gap by establishing a coherent framework for studying kernel-based methods to measure divergence between conditional distributions through what we refer to as conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD). The CMMD consists of a family of metrics which we call levels, with three special cases each using a different type of RKHS embedding: CMMD$_0$ (conditional mean operators), CMMD$_1$ (conditional mean embeddings), and CMMD$_2$ (joint mean embeddings). We additionally introduce a general level $s$ CMMD, clarifying the required assumptions, and establishing mathematical connections between the levels through the lens of operator-based smoothing. In addition to reviewing previously proposed estimators, we introduce a novel doubly robust estimator for the CMMD that maintains consistency provided the product of errors of the underlying models reduces sufficiently fast. We provide numerical experiments demonstrating that the CMMD effectively captures complex conditional dependencies for statistical testing.

This paper studies simultaneous inference of conditional distributions in nonlinear time series from a sieve M-regression perspective. Existing literature on sieve M-regression has primarily focused on pointwise asymptotics, leaving the development of uncertainty quantification over the entire predictor space unexplored. We address this gap by establishing a uniform Bahadur representation for the sieve M-estimator, accommodating dependent data and a growing number of sieve basis functions. A novel high-dimensional empirical process theory is developed for temporally dependent data, and a specifically designed M-decomposition method is utilized to control high-dimensional complexities. Building on this representation, we develop a convex Gaussian approximation to characterize the asymptotic behavior of the estimator and construct valid simultaneous confidence regions (SCRs). To facilitate practical implementation, we introduce a self-convolved bootstrap algorithm that accurately approximates the distribution of the maximal deviation. Our inferential framework is supported by rigorous error bounds and validated through numerical simulations and real data applications.

For a phenomenon $\boldsymbol{f}$ that is a function of $n$ factors, defined on a finite abelian group $G$, we derive its population statistics solely from its Fourier transform $\hat{\boldsymbol{f}}$. Our main result is an $m$-Coefficient/Index Annihilation Theorem: the $m$th moment of $\boldsymbol{f}$ becomes a series of terms, each with precisely $m$ Fourier coefficients — and surprisingly, the coefficient indices in each term sum to zero under group addition. This condition acts like a filter, limiting which terms appear in the Fourier domain, and can reveal deeper relationships between the variables driving $\boldsymbol{f}$. These techniques can also be used as an analytical/design tool, or as a feasibility constraint in search algorithms. For functions defined on $\mathbb{Z}_2^n$, we show how the skew, kurtosis, etc. of a binomial distribution can be derived from the Fourier domain. Several other examples are presented.

Stability Selection resamples the observations but leaves the design untouched, so it cannot reject an irrelevant feature that is correlated with the relevant ones in a way that violates the irrepresentable condition. Such a feature (a “confounder”) is selected in a substantial fraction of resamples, and the exchangeability behind the false-positive bound of Stability Selection fails. We propose 2D Stability Selection (2D-SS), which aggregates selection frequencies over half-samples and over a grid of injected design noise, and reduces to Stability Selection at zero noise. Because input noise acts, in expectation, as Tikhonov regularisation, a jittered Lasso fit is a noisy elastic net whose support recovery is governed by a noise-indexed irrepresentable condition. Jittering can therefore repair designs in which confounders violate the Lasso condition, although it can also hurt. We give the noise level at which a violated feature's statistic vanishes (for uncorrelated relevant features), exact-recovery guarantees for a single fit, conditions under which aggregation over noise levels recovers the support, and a complementary-pairs bound on the expected number of false positives, carried over from Stability Selection to the noise-aggregated procedure, for a fixed threshold or a size-matched selector. The procedure takes no measurement-error covariance as input, although the guarantees assume i.i.d.\ Gaussian measurement error. In simulations 2D-SS excludes confounders that Stability Selection includes, and its size-matched version stays below the nominal closed-form false-positive bound in all 240 simulated cells, whereas Stability Selection exceeds it in 21; it does not generally improve on Stability Selection in $F_1$ and is lower at low noise. It is useful when stable but wrong selections are the concern.

Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer a potent combination of accuracy and interpretability, thanks to their compositions of learnable univariate activation functions. However, the activations of well-fitting KANs tend to exhibit pathologically high-curvature oscillations, making them difficult to interpret, and standard regularization penalties do not prevent this. Here we derive a basis-agnostic curvature penalty and show that penalized models can maintain accuracy while achieving substantially smoother activations. Accounting for how function composition shapes curvature, we prove an upper bound on the full model's curvature relative to the curvature penalty, and use this to motivate richer forms of penalties. Scientific machine learning is increasingly bottlenecked by the trade-off between accuracy and interpretability. Results such as ours that improve interpretability without sacrificing accuracy will further strengthen KANs as a practical tool for both prediction and insight.

Pearl's causal hierarchy shows that observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries are qualitatively distinct. We ask a quantitative version of this question: how many additional bits are needed to specify higher-rung causal answers once lower-rung answers are known? We formalize this via query-class description length, the Kolmogorov complexity of the answers a structural causal model (SCM) gives to a class of queries, with system size given. Our main construction gives acyclic SCMs on $n$ binary variables whose common observational distribution has constant description length, while single-variable intervention answers can require $\Theta(n^2)$ additional bits. For SCMs with independent noises, fixed finite gate-schema and noise libraries, and at most $d$ parents per variable, a degree-sensitive upper bound gives an observational-interventional gap of at most $O(nd\log(en/d)+n\log n)$. This makes the quadratic construction order-optimal in the dense regime and a rooted-tree construction order-optimal for bounded indegree. The quadratic separation persists under $\varepsilon$-accurate total-variation descriptions for every fixed $\varepsilon<1/4$. At the next rung, even knowing every hard-intervention distribution can leave a $\Theta(n)$ counterfactual description gap; a masked-parity construction extends this to $\Theta(n^2)$. These separation rates hold in the worst case and with high probability under uniform hidden parameters. A general ambiguity-to-bits theorem and Shannon analogue, together with explicit encodings, show that the gaps in our constructions equal the logarithm of residual higher-rung ambiguity up to lower-order terms.

We study target-population distributional and quantile treatment effects when a source study observes treatment and post-treatment surrogates for all source units but observes a long-run primary outcome only for a validation subset, while the target population contributes only baseline covariates. The target estimands are transported counterfactual distribution functions $\psi_a(y)=P(Y^a\le y\mid R=0)$, their quantiles $q_a(\tau)$, and the quantile treatment effect $\Delta(\tau)=q_1(\tau)-q_0(\tau)$. The surrogate is not treated as a replacement endpoint and no Prentice-type surrogacy condition is imposed. Instead, the surrogate is used only to improve efficiency under missing-at-random primary-outcome sampling. We derive the nonparametric efficient influence function, which has three orthogonal components corresponding to target covariate sampling, the source surrogate process, and missing primary outcomes. This yields a closed-form cross-fitted one-step estimator after nuisance estimation. We establish identification, the canonical gradient, exact drift identities, ratio-level robustness, pointwise and uniform asymptotic linearity for transported CDFs, Bahadur representations for quantiles under explicit local inverse-map conditions, high-level multiplier-bootstrap simultaneous bands under explicit estimated-process and density conditions, and quantile-specific efficiency gains from observing surrogates. We also give lower-level nuisance-rate verification for a deliberately restricted class of analyzable bounded finite-dimensional or finite-rank implementations based on sieve ridge regression, ridge logistic regression, calibrated density-ratio estimation, finite-rank kernel ridge regression, and isotonic projection under explicit grid, eigenvalue, source, and entropy conditions.

Predictive recursion (PR) is a fast algorithm for nonparametric estimation of a mixing density, with connections to sequential Bayesian updating under a Dirichlet process prior and rigorous frequentist consistency guarantees. Extending PR to the regression setting, where one seeks to estimate how a mixing density varies with covariate, is nontrivial: dependent Dirichlet process priors, the natural Bayesian generalization, gives no simple recursive updating formula. We introduce PRx, which overcomes this challenge through combining kernel-based weight localization with the recursive scheme of the original PR algorithm. The algorithm scales linearly in sample size and covariate dimension, completing in seconds to minutes where MCMC-based competitors require hours. Exactly as with ordinary PR, the algorithm produces as a byproduct a likelihood score, the PRMLx, whose maximizer is shown to be a consistent estimator for unmixed parameters. In simulations and case studies PRx produces conditional density estimates competitive with established Bayesian procedures at a fraction of the computational cost, and can also be adapted for a wide range of statistical applications including Bayesian model comparison and covariate-dependent multiple testing.

Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization is widely used in offline decision-making and offers several benefits, motivating recent work on the sample complexity of offline learning with respect to KL-regularized performance metrics. Nevertheless, the exact sample complexity of KL-regularized offline learning remains largely from fully characterized. In this paper, we study this question in the setting of multi-armed bandits (MABs). We provide a sharp analysis of KL-PCB (Zhao et al., 2026), showing that it achieves a sample complexity of $\tilde{O}(\eta SAC^{\pi^*}/\epsilon)$ under large regularization $\eta = \tilde{O}(\epsilon^{-1})$, and a sample complexity of $\tilde{\Omega}(SAC^{\pi^*}/\epsilon^2)$ under small regularization $\eta = \tilde{\Omega}(\epsilon^{-1})$, where $\eta$ is the regularization parameter, $S$ is the number of contexts, $A$ is the number of arms, $C^{\pi^*}$ policy coverage coefficient at the optimal policy $\pi^*$, $\epsilon$ is the desired sub-optimality, and $\tilde{O}$ and $\tilde{\Omega}$ hide all poly-logarithmic factors. We further provide a pair of sharper sample complexity lower bounds, which matches the upper bounds over the entire range of regularization strengths. Overall, our results provide a nearly complete characterization of offline multi-armed bandits with KL regularization.

An approach to inference for relative sparsity was developed in prior work, and an adaptive lasso asymptotic normality theorem was given there, but this theorem was not fully used when estimating the variance of the policy coefficients. Here, we develop a new coefficient variance estimator that fully uses this theorem and, in the process, takes into account the variable selection. This improves the uncertainty representation in the graphical selection diagrams, ultimately facilitating the safe use of policy learning in clinical medicine.

Planned and ongoing searches for life, both biological and technological, confront an epistemic barrier concerning false positives - namely, that we don't know what we don't know. The most defensible and agnostic approach is to adopt diffuse (uninformative) priors, not only for the prevalence of life, but also for the prevalence of confounders. We evaluate the resulting Bayes factors between the null and life hypotheses for an idealized experiment with $N_{pos}$ positive labels (biosignature detections) among $N_{tot}$ targets with various priors. Using diffuse priors, the consequences are catastrophic for life detection, requiring at least ${\sim}10^4$ (for some priors ${\sim}10^{13}$) surveyed targets to ever obtain "strong evidence" for life. Accordingly, an HWO-scale survey with $N_{tot}{\sim}25$ would have no prospect of achieving this goal. A previously suggested workaround is to forgo the agnostic confounder prior, by asserting some upper limit on it for example, but we find that the results can be highly sensitive to this choice - as well as difficult to justify. Instead, we suggest a novel solution that retains agnosticism: by dividing the sample into two groups for which the prevalence of life differs, but the confounder rate is global. We show that a $N_{tot}=24$ survey could expect 24% of possible outcomes to produce strong life detections with this strategy, rising to $\geq50$% for $N_{tot}\geq76$. However, AB-testing introduces its own unique challenges to survey design, requiring two groups with differing life prevalence rates (ideally greatly so) but a global confounder rate.

Artificial intelligence-generated content (AIGC) has emerged as a transformative paradigm for automating the creation of diverse and customized content, giving rise to rapidly growing computational workloads in cloud data centers. It is imperative for AIGC service providers (ASPs) to strategically schedule AIGC workloads to reduce data center energy costs while guaranteeing high-quality content generation. However, the distinctive characteristics of AIGC services pose critical challenges, including model heterogeneity across ASPs, implicit service quality evaluation, and complex inference process control. To tackle these challenges, we propose a joint energy management and coordinated AIGC workload scheduling framework, which introduces an explicit mathematical characterization of service quality to promote both job transfer among ASPs and fine-grained inference process configuration. Moreover, various energy resources within data centers are jointly considered to enhance power usage flexibility. Subsequently, a system utility maximization problem is formulated to balance AIGC service revenue with operational penalties and costs. Nevertheless, the strong coupling among job scheduling decisions induces severe reward sparsity, which limits the effectiveness of existing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms. To address this issue, we develop a diffusion model-aided reward shaping approach to synthesize complementary reward signals through a multi-step denoising process. This approach is seamlessly integrated with DRL to enable efficient learning of scheduling policies under sparse environmental feedback. Experiments based on real-world models and datasets demonstrate that our scheme effectively accommodates electricity price fluctuations and AIGC model heterogeneity, while achieving superior learning convergence and system utility compared with benchmark methods.

Deep learning models for drug–target interaction (DTI) prediction often achieve strong benchmark performance without necessarily relying on mechanistically meaningful molecular features, a limitation that standard accuracy-based evaluation cannot detect. We introduce ISAAC (Intervention-based Structural Auditing Approach for Causal Reasoning), a post-hoc framework that evaluates prior-relative structural sensitivity by probing frozen models through matched mechanistic and spurious input-level interventions, independently of predictive accuracy. Applied to three sequence-based DTI architectures on the Davis benchmark, ISAAC reveals approximately 25% relative differences in reasoning scores across models with comparable AUROC (within around 3%), stable across training and intervention seeds and two distinct perturbation operators. These discrepancies, undetectable under conventional accuracy metrics, motivate the use of post-hoc structural auditing as a complement to standard performance evaluation in scientific machine learning for molecular modeling.

We introduce entropic strict minimum message length (SMML), a risk-sensitive generalization of strict minimum message length coding. The proposed criterion replaces expected two-part codelength under the prior predictive distribution with an exponential certainty equivalent, thereby defining a one-parameter family of coding rules that interpolates between Bayesian average-case coding and worst-case minimax coding. We show that ordinary SMML is recovered in the risk-neutral limit, while the extreme risk-sensitive limit yields a minimax codelength criterion. Applying the same entropic soft maximum to regret relative to the oracle maximum likelihood codelength recovers the normalized maximum likelihood (NML) minimax-regret principle. We further prove that entropic SMML admits a variational characterization as a Kullback–Leibler-regularized worst-case expected codelength, giving it a PAC–Bayes-type interpretation. We establish joint \(n\)–\(\tau\) asymptotics that identify how the risk parameter must scale with sample size in order to recover Bayesian average-case, intermediate robust, and worst-case minimax coding behavior. For regular exponential families, the fixed-codebook partition remains affine in sufficient-statistic space, while the codepoints satisfy a tilted moment-matching condition and admit an interpretation as tilted Bregman centroids. These results position entropic SMML as an information theoretic bridge between MML, PAC–Bayes, and MDL.

This paper proposes an eigenvalue-based small-sample approximation of the celebrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo that delivers an invariant steady-state distribution that is consistent with traditional Monte Carlo methods. The proposed eigenvalue-based methodology reduces the number of paths required for Monte Carlo from as many as 1,000,000 to as few as 10 (depending on the simulation time horizon $T$), and delivers comparable, distributionally robust results, as measured by the Wasserstein distance. The proposed methodology also produces a significant variance reduction in the steady-state distribution.

A central problem in the theory of empirical Bayes is to control the regret (excess risk) of a learned Bayes rule by the Hellinger distance between the estimated and true marginal densities. In the normal means model, the classical result of Jiang and Zhang (2009) achieves this only after regularizing the Bayes rule and incurs an extraneous cubic logarithmic factor through a delicate recursive argument. This paper introduces a new technique, based on polynomial approximation and Bernstein-type inequalities for weighted $L_2$ norms, that bounds the unregularized regret directly. The method is conceptually simpler and yields sharper, sometimes optimal, regret bounds. For compactly supported priors, we prove the sharp bound that the regret is $O(\epsilon^2 \frac{\log(1/\epsilon)}{\log\log(1/\epsilon)})$, where $\epsilon$ is the Hellinger distance between the marginal densities. The same method also extends to priors with exponential tails. Conversely, we show that regularization is genuinely necessary for heavy-tailed priors under only bounded moment assumptions. As statistical consequences, we obtain improved regret bounds for the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). Notably, for compactly supported priors, by determining the optimal Hellinger rate of mixture density estimation, we show that the optimal regret for sample size $n$ scales as $\Theta(\frac{1}{n}(\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^2)$, attained by the NPMLE within a $\log\log n$ factor.

Any continuous conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ can be generated from a transform of a known noise distribution $U$ such as the uniform or normal distribution via $Y = g(X, U)$. This paper provides an estimator of such a generative transformation $g$ by minimizing the empirical energy distance between distributions of $Y$ and $g(X, U)$, and implements it via neural networks. The estimated distribution can then be readily applied to downstream tasks such as conditional moment estimation, predictive interval construction, and conditional density estimation. By leveraging the representation power of neural networks, the estimator can adaptively exploit low-dimensional structures in a purely algorithmic manner. Theoretically, we establish an oracle inequality attaining the adaptive optimal nonparametric rates. Numerical simulations and real data analysis further demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed method.

This paper introduces the use of per-class regularization hyperparameters in Gabriel graph-based binary classifiers. We demonstrate how the quality index used for regularization behaves both in the margin region and in the presence of outliers, and how incorporating this regularization flexibility can lead to solutions that effectively eliminate outliers while training the classifier. We also show how it can address class imbalance by generating higher and lower thresholds for the majority and minority classes, respectively. Thus, rather than having a single solution based on fixed thresholds, flexible thresholds expand the solution space and can be optimized through hyperparameter tuning algorithms. Friedman test shows that flexible thresholds are capable of improving Gabriel graph-based classifiers.

We introduce Mira, a sample-based score for assessing the accuracy of a candidate conditional distribution using only joint samples from the true data-generating process. Relying on the principle that distributions coincide if they assign equal probability mass to all regions, we derive an analytic expression for the Mira statistic, whose average defines the Mira score. This formulation further allows us to compute theoretical reference values and uncertainty estimates when the candidate distribution matches the true one. This framework enables model comparison by quantifying the alignment between the conditional distribution of a candidate model and the true data generating process. Consequently, Mira enables Bayesian model comparison through direct posterior validation, bypassing the challenging evidence computation. We demonstrate its effectiveness across several toy problems and Bayesian inference tasks.

Mixtures of experts (MoE) models provide a flexible framework for modelling heterogeneity in data for regression and model-based clustering and classification. MoE models for regression are typically based on the Gaussian assumption for the expert distributions. To robustify the MoE framework with respect to data exhibiting skewness, heavy tails and outliers, we propose a robust non-normal MoE model using the shifted asymmetric Laplace (SAL) distribution. The proposed SALMoE model overcomes the limitations of the Gaussian MoE model when the observed data are asymmetric and heavy-tailed. Through a combination of the minorization-maximization (MM) algorithm with the classical Expectation-Maximization (EM), we develop a dedicated hybrid EM-MM algorithm to estimate the parameters of the SALMoE model. The EM-MM algorithm is shown to yield a nondecreasing observed log-likelihood. A simulation study demonstrates the robustness and practical utility of the proposed model. Finally, the SALMoE model is applied to two real-world economic datasets.

This paper proposes estimation and inference procedures for quantiles of the heterogeneous individual-specific coefficients in panel data. Unlike conventional panel quantile regression, which focuses on outcome heterogeneity, our approach targets the $\tau$-quantile of the cross-sectional distribution of individual-specific slopes. We establish the asymptotic theory under both stochastic and deterministic designs, with convergence rates $\sqrt{N}$ and $\sqrt{N\sqrt{T}}$, respectively. We also develop two corresponding bootstrap procedures for practical inference, and formally establish their validity. The suggested methods are of practical interest since they require weaker sample size growth conditions than standard fixed-effect quantile regression, and accommodate large $N$ settings. Numerical simulations and an empirical application illustrate the empirical effectiveness of the methods under both designs.

The deterioration of pavement is a complex and dynamic process determined by different factors including material, environment, design, and some other unobserved variables. Accurate predictions of pavement condition can help maximize the use of available resources for pavement management agencies through better coordinated preservation and maintenance activities. This paper uses deep neural networks such as the convolutional neural network (CNN) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) to model the pavement deterioration process. In this paper, pavement condition data and maintenance and rehabilitation history collected by the Texas Department of Transportation over the past 18 years were used. Twenty-one flexible pavement condition indicators, including cracking, rutting, raveling, and roughness, collected from more than 100,000 pavement sections were included in the proposed models. Promising preliminary results were obtained. Case study results show that the proposed CNN model outperforms standard machine learning models in predicting pavement condition values.

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from these advances, including regression and classification beyond the training data, extreme quantile regression, supervised and unsupervised dimension reduction, generative artificial intelligence and anomaly detection. This review synthesizes recent developments in these fields at the intersection of statistical learning and extreme value theory, with a focus on principled methods based on asymptotically motivated representations of the tail of univariate and multivariate distributions. We consider different theoretical frameworks for both asymptotically dependent and independent data and discuss how they translate into efficient statistical methods for extrapolation to extreme regions. By addressing both theoretical and practical aspects, we offer a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art in this quickly evolving field, and identify promising directions for future research.

We study clustered multitask learning in a semiparametric setting where tasks share a latent cluster structure in their target parameters but exhibit heterogeneous, potentially infinite-dimensional nuisance components. Such heterogeneity poses a major challenge for existing multitask learning methods, which typically rely on aligned feature spaces or homogeneous task structures. To address this challenge, we propose an adaptive fused orthogonal estimator that integrates Neyman-orthogonal losses with data-driven pairwise fusion penalties. Our framework leverages task-specific pilot estimates to calibrate the fusion penalties and combines adaptive aggregation with orthogonalization to mitigate the impact of nuisance-parameter estimation error. Theoretically, we show that the proposed estimator achieves exact recovery of the latent clustering with high probability and attains pooled parametric convergence rates proportional to cluster size. Moreover, we establish asymptotic normality and show that, asymptotically, our estimator matches the performance of an oracle procedure that knows the true clustering in advance. Empirically, we show that the proposed method consistently outperforms strong baselines in various simulation setups. A real-world application to U.S. residential energy consumption demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach in uncovering meaningful regional clustering in electricity price elasticity, showcasing the efficacy of our method.

The probability of necessity (PN), which quantifies the probability that an observed event would not have occurred in the absence of the treatment, is a central estimand in attribution analysis. While PN has been extensively studied for binary outcomes and has recently been developed for ordinal outcomes, a formal framework for continuous outcomes remains underdeveloped. To address this gap, we propose the general probability of necessity (GPN) for continuous outcomes, a setting that is substantially more challenging than the binary and ordinal cases. Rather than imposing strong identifiability assumptions, we adopt a partial identification perspective and derive sharp lower and upper bounds under standard assumptions of ignorability and monotonicity. We further introduce a copula-based framework that exploits dependence information between potential outcomes to tighten these bounds. Simulation studies and real-world applications demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.