Papers

We study the spectral gaps of parallel and simulated tempering chains targeting multimodal Gibbs measures. In particular, we consider chains constructed from Metropolis random walks that preserve the Gibbs distributions at a sequence of harmonically spaced temperatures. We prove that their spectral gaps admit polynomial lower bounds of order $11$ and $12$ in terms of the low target temperature. The analysis applies to a broad class of potentials, beyond mixture models, without requiring explicit structural information on the energy landscape. The main idea is to decompose the state space and construct a Lyapunov function based on a suitably perturbed potential, which allows us to establish lower bounds on the local spectral gaps.

We study high-dimensional regression in principal components space when the predictors are observed with additive measurement error and the response errors may be heavy-tailed. The starting point is the $\ell_1$-penalized principal-components estimator of Song and Zou (2026), which enjoys a blessing-of-dimensionality phenomenon under predictor contamination but senstive for heavy-tailed data or outliers. We replace the squared loss by a Wilcoxon-type rank loss and then apply a one-step adaptive reweighting scheme to reduce the shrinkage bias of the initial $\ell_1$ fit. The resulting procedure combines robustness to heavy-tailed response errors with the contamination geometry induced by the empirical principal-components basis. Our main theorem gives a prediction bound for the fixed-$\lambda$ second-stage fitted mean. Simulations show that the rank-based procedure is competitive under Gaussian noise and substantially more stable under heavy-tailed errors, especially when predictor contamination is present.

We study compressed sensing when the sampling vectors are chosen from the rows of a unitary matrix. In the literature, these sampling vectors are typically chosen randomly; the use of randomness has enabled major empirical and theoretical advances in the field. However, in practice there are often certain crucial sampling vectors, in which case practitioners will depart from the theory and sample such rows deterministically. In this work, we derive an optimized sampling scheme for Bernoulli selectors which naturally combines random and deterministic selection of rows, thus rigorously deciding which rows should be sampled deterministically. This sampling scheme provides measurable improvements in image compressed sensing for both generative and sparse priors when compared to with-replacement and without-replacement sampling schemes, as we show with theoretical results and numerical experiments. Additionally, our theoretical guarantees feature improved sample complexity bounds compared to previous works, and novel denoising guarantees in this setting.

We study bootstrap inference for the $k$th largest coordinate of a normalized sum of independent high-dimensional random vectors. Existing second-order theory for maxima does not directly extend to order statistics, because the event $\{T_{n,[k]}\le t\}$ is not a rectangle and its local structure is governed by exceedance counts rather than by a single boundary. We develop an approach based on factorial moments and weighted inclusion–exclusion that reduces the problem to a collection of rare-orthant probabilities and allows high-dimensional Edgeworth and Cornish–Fisher expansions to be transferred to the order-statistic setting. Under moment, variance, and weak-dependence conditions, we derive a second-order coverage expansion for wild-bootstrap critical values of the $k$th order statistic. In particular, a third-moment matching wild bootstrap achieves coverage error of order $n^{-1}$ up to logarithmic factors, and the same second-order accuracy is obtained for a prepivoted double wild bootstrap. We also show that the maximal-correlation condition can be replaced by a stationary Gaussian exponential-mixing assumption at the price of an explicit dependence remainder $r_d$, and this remainder can itself be of order $n^{-1}$ when the dimension is sufficiently large relative to the sample size. These results extend recent second-order Gaussian and bootstrap approximation theory from maxima to the $k$th order statistic in high dimension.

The problem of quickly detecting signals among multiple sequentially observed data streams, subject to constraints on the familywise false-alarm and missed-detection probabilities, is considered under an active sampling setup where only one stream can be sampled at each time instant. Under this setup, it is in general impossible to minimize, even asymptotically, the expected decision time simultaneously for every stream. We therefore consider minimizing the expected time until either the kth signal declaration or termination simultaneously for every k. We first establish non-asymptotic lower bounds for these criteria. For k > |B|, where B denotes the true subset of signals, we show that these lower bounds are attained asymptotically as the error levels vanish by any policy that stops sampling and makes a decision for each stream according to a local Sequential Probability Ratio Test. For 1 <= k <= |B|, however, the performance depends critically on the sampling rule, and we propose one with a simple exploration mechanism that prevents switching away from signals prematurely because of early unfavorable observations. We show that, under a mild relative-rate condition on the two error levels, the resulting policy attains all the lower bounds simultaneously. Numerical studies are presented to compare the proposed policy with an oracle policy and a follow-the-leader policy.

Tensor-valued data arise naturally in multidimensional signal and imaging problems, such as biomedical imaging. When incorporated into generalized linear models (GLMs), naive vectorization can destroy their multi-way structure and lead to high-dimensional, ill-posed estimation. To address this challenge, Low Separation Rank (LSR) decompositions reduce model complexity by imposing low-rank multilinear structure on the coefficient tensor. A representative approach for estimating LSR-based tensor GLMs (LSR-TGLMs) is the Low Separation Rank Tensor Regression (LSRTR) algorithm, which adopts block coordinate descent and enforces orthogonality of the factor matrices through repeated QR-based projections. However, the repeated projection steps can be computationally demanding and slow convergence. Motivated by the need for scalable estimation and classification from such data, we propose LSRTR-M, which incorporates Muon (MomentUm Orthogonalized by Newton-Schulz) updates into the LSRTR framework. Specifically, LSRTR-M preserves the original block coordinate scheme while replacing the projection-based factor updates with Muon steps. Across synthetic linear, logistic, and Poisson LSR-TGLMs, LSRTR-M converges faster in both iteration count and wall-clock time, while achieving lower normalized estimation and prediction errors. On the Vessel MNIST 3D task, it further improves computational efficiency while maintaining competitive classification performance.

Machine learning (ML) models have achieved strikingly high accuracies in spectroscopic classification tasks, often without a clear proof that those models used chemically meaningful features. Existing studies have linked these results to data preprocessing choices, noise sensitivity, and model complexity, but no unifying explanation is available so far. In this work, we show that these phenomena arise naturally from the intrinsic high dimensionality of spectral data. Using a theoretical analysis grounded in the Feldman-Hajek theorem and the concentration of measure, we show that even infinitesimal distributional differences, caused by noise, normalisation, or instrumental artefacts, may become perfectly separable in high-dimensional spaces. Through a series of specific experiments on synthetic and real fluorescence spectra, we illustrate how models can achieve near-perfect accuracy even when chemical distinctions are absent, and why feature-importance maps may highlight spectrally irrelevant regions. We provide a rigorous theoretical framework, confirm the effect experimentally, and conclude with practical recommendations for building and interpreting ML models in spectroscopy.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In this paper, we study decision rules induced by deep, fully connected feedforward ReLU BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss. We show that, for fixed prior scales, the induced Bayes decision rule is not minimax. We then propose a hyperprior on the effective output variance of the BNN prior that yields a superharmonic square-root marginal density, establishing that the resulting decision rule is simultaneously admissible and minimax. We further extend these results from the quadratic loss setting to the predictive density estimation problem with Kullback–Leibler loss. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings numerically through simulation.

In this paper, we study estimation of parameters in a two-parameter Potts model with $q$ colors and coupling matrix $A_N$. We characterize concrete sufficient conditions for existence of the pseudo-likelihood estimator of the Potts model, in terms of the local magnetic fields, and give sufficient conditions for the validity of the above characterization. We then provide sufficient criteria for estimation of both parameters at the optimal rate $\sqrt{N}$. In particular, if $A_N$ is the scaled adjacency matrix of a graph $G_N$, then we show that joint estimation is possible if either $G_N$ has bounded degree or is irregular. In contrast, we give an example of a graph sequence $G_N$ which is approximately regular and dense, where no consistent estimator exists. We also show that one-parameter estimation at the optimal rate $\sqrt{N}$ holds under much milder conditions when the other parameter is known. Along the way, we develop a concentration result for mean-field Potts models using the framework of nonlinear large deviations. Compared to the Ising case, our results for the Potts case require a novel analysis across multiple colors.

Pairwise comparisons are widely used in decision analysis, preference modeling, and evaluation problems. In many practical situations, the observed comparison matrix is not reciprocal. This lack of reciprocity is often treated as a defect to be corrected immediately. In this article, we adopt a different point of view: part of the nonreciprocity may reflect a genuine variation in the evaluation scale, while another part is due to random perturbations. We introduce an additive model in which the unknown underlying comparison matrix is consistent but not necessarily reciprocal. The reciprocal component carries the global ranking information, whereas the symmetric component describes possible scale variation. Around this structured matrix, we add a random perturbation and show how to estimate the noise level, assess whether the scale variation remains moderate, and assign probabilities to admissible ranking regions in the sense of strict ranking by pairwise comparisons. We also compare this approach with the brutal projection onto reciprocal matrices, which suppresses all symmetric information at once. The Gaussian perturbation model is used here not because human decisions are exactly Gaussian, but because observed judgment errors often result from the accumulation of many small effects. In such a context, the central limit principle provides a natural heuristic justification for Gaussian noise. This makes it possible to derive explicit estimators and probability assessments while keeping the model interpretable for decision problems.

The prevalence of missing values in data science poses a substantial risk to any further analyses. Despite a wealth of research, principled nonparametric methods to deal with general non-monotone missingness are still scarce. Instead, ad-hoc imputation methods are often used, for which it remains unclear whether the correct distribution can be recovered. In this paper, we propose FLOWGEM, a principled iterative method for generating a complete dataset from a dataset with values Missing at Random (MAR). Motivated by convergence results of the ignoring maximum likelihood estimator, our approach minimizes the expected Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the observed data distribution and the distribution of the generated sample over different missingness patterns. To minimize the KL divergence, we employ a discretized particle evolution of the corresponding Wasserstein Gradient Flow, where the velocity field is approximated using a local linear estimator of the density ratio. This construction yields a data generation scheme that iteratively transports an initial particle ensemble toward the target distribution. Simulation studies and real-data benchmarks demonstrate that FLOWGEM achieves state-of-the-art performance across a range of settings, including the challenging case of non-monotone MAR mechanisms. Together, these results position FLOWGEM as a principled and practical alternative to existing imputation methods, and a decisive step towards closing the gap between theoretical rigor and empirical performance.

We develop a dynamic factor stochastic volatility-in-mean (SVM) specification for vector autoregressions (VARs) that embeds an SVM component within a dynamic factor stochastic volatility structure. A small number of latent volatility factors capture common movements in conditional variances, while volatility enters the conditional mean of the VAR. This specification allows time-varying uncertainty to influence macroeconomic dynamics through both second moments and expected outcomes while preserving tractability in large panels. We construct an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimation in this high-dimensional, non-Gaussian setting. Using quarterly data on twenty variables from the FRED-QD database, we compare predictive performance with the benchmark stochastic volatility VAR model. The dynamic factor SVM specification delivers superior forecasts for more variables during major macroeconomic disruptions such as the 2008 global financial crisis. The results indicate that allowing volatility to enter the mean captures an important transmission channel in macroeconomic dynamics.

We propose a unified mixture sampler (UMS) that provides a universal estimation framework for nonlinear state-space models with "exp-exp" likelihood kernels. Unlike existing methods that require deriving new mixture approximations for each specific distribution, our approach dynamically adapts the standard ten-component mixture from Omori et al. (2007) through a deterministic re-centering and rescaling algorithm. Applying this to the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model, we demonstrate that the proposed sampler can efficiently handle unknown shape parameters - such as those in Weibull or Gamma distributions - by updating mixture components near-instantaneously during MCMC iterations. The UMS not only simplifies implementation but also ensures exact inference via a lightweight Metropolis-Hastings step. Numerical examples show that our method substantially outperforms the conventional slice sampling approach, significantly reducing autocorrelation in MCMC samples while maintaining high computational efficiency. This unified framework encompasses a wide range of applications, including logit, Poisson, and various SCD model specifications, providing a highly efficient alternative to model-specific samplers.

Statistical agencies frequently release frequency tables derived from microdata, but small frequency cells may lead to disclosure risks. We present iLBA, an open-source R package for confidential dissemination of aggregated frequency tables. The package implements the Information-Loss-Bounded Aggregation (iLBA) algorithm, which combines Small Cell Adjustment (SCA) at the finest level table with an aggregation procedure that introduces controlled ambiguity while bounding information loss. The software enables users to construct masked finest level tables, generate confidential aggregated tables for selected variables, and obtain masked frequencies for single-cell queries. By providing an accessible implementation of the iLBA method, the package facilitates reproducible and efficient disclosure control for tabular data derived from microdata.

Aligning language models with human preferences is essential for ensuring their safety and reliability. Although most existing approaches assume specific human preference models such as the Bradley-Terry model, this assumption may fail to accurately capture true human preferences, and consequently, these methods lack statistical consistency, i.e., the guarantee that language models converge to the true human preference as the number of samples increases. In contrast, direct density ratio optimization (DDRO) achieves statistical consistency without assuming any human preference models. DDRO models the density ratio between preferred and non-preferred data distributions using the language model, and then optimizes it via density ratio estimation. However, this density ratio is unstable and often diverges, leading to training instability of DDRO. In this paper, we propose a novel alignment method that is both stable and statistically consistent. Our approach is based on the relative density ratio between the preferred data distribution and a mixture of the preferred and non-preferred data distributions. Our approach is stable since this relative density ratio is bounded above and does not diverge. Moreover, it is statistically consistent and yields significantly tighter convergence guarantees than DDRO. We experimentally show its effectiveness with Qwen 2.5 and Llama 3.

This paper studies the problem of recovering a hidden vertex correspondence between two correlated graphs when both edge weights and node features are observed. While most existing work on graph alignment relies primarily on edge information, many real-world applications provide informative node features in addition to graph topology. To capture this setting, we introduce the featured correlated Gaussian Wigner model, where two graphs are coupled through an unknown vertex permutation, and the node features are correlated under the same permutation. We characterize the optimal information-theoretic thresholds for exact recovery and partial recovery of the latent mapping. On the algorithmic side, we propose QPAlign, an algorithm based on a quadratic programming relaxation, and demonstrate its strong empirical performance on both synthetic and real datasets. Moreover, we also derive theoretical guarantees for the proposed procedure, supporting its reliability and providing convergence guarantees.

We propose a generalized win fraction regression framework for prioritized composite survival outcomes. The framework models the conditional win fraction through a chosen link function (including identity, logit, or probit), thereby accommodating multi-component time-to-event endpoints within a unified regression structure. To handle right censoring, we construct inverse-probability-of-censoring-weighted estimating equations that target the win fraction as if censoring were absent. Under the identity link, regression parameters characterize covariate associations on the natural win fraction scale. Under the logit link, they characterize the log odds of winning – a new and complementary effect measure that treats ties as failures to win, imposing a more conservative standard than the win ratio or win odds. When there are no ties, the logit win fraction model reduces to proportional win fraction regression; moreover, the unweighted version of our estimating equations numerically coincides with the proportional win fraction point estimator regardless of ties. We establish large-sample properties of the proposed estimators and derive a consistent sandwich variance estimator that accounts for uncertainty from the estimated censoring weights. Extensive simulations examine finite-sample performance across link functions and censoring rates, and our method is illustrated through a reanalysis of the HF-ACTION clinical trial.

Many data-driven decision problems are formulated using a nominal distribution estimated from historical data, while performance is ultimately determined by a deployment distribution that may be shifted, context-dependent, partially observed, or stress-induced. This tutorial presents modern generative models, particularly flow- and score-based methods, as mathematical tools for constructing decision-relevant distributions. From an operations research perspective, their primary value lies not in unconstrained sample synthesis but in representing and transforming distributions through transport maps, velocity fields, score fields, and guided stochastic dynamics. We present a unified framework based on pushforward maps, continuity, Fokker-Planck equations, Wasserstein geometry, and optimization in probability space. Within this framework, generative models can be used to learn nominal uncertainty, construct stressed or least-favorable distributions for robustness, and produce conditional or posterior distributions under side information and partial observation. We also highlight representative theoretical guarantees, including forward-reverse convergence for iterative flow models, first-order minimax analysis in transport-map space, and error-transfer bounds for posterior sampling with generative priors. The tutorial provides a principled introduction to using generative models for scenario generation, robust decision-making, uncertainty quantification, and related problems under distributional shift.

As deep neural networks are deployed in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis, stakeholders need explanations that are interpretable but also trustworthy with formal guarantees. Existing XAI methods fall short: heuristic attribution techniques (e.g., LIME, Integrated Gradients) highlight influential features but offer no mathematical guarantees about decision boundaries, while formal methods verify robustness yet remain untargeted, analyzing the nearest boundary regardless of whether it represents a critical risk. In safety-critical systems, not all misclassifications carry equal consequences; confusing a "Stop" sign for a "60 kph" sign is far more dangerous than confusing it with a "No Passing" sign. We introduce ViTaX (Verified and Targeted Explanations), a formal XAI framework that generates targeted semifactual explanations with mathematical guarantees. For a given input (class y) and a user-specified critical alternative (class t), ViTaX: (1) identifies the minimal feature subset most sensitive to the y->t transition, and (2) applies formal reachability analysis to guarantee that perturbing these features by epsilon cannot flip the classification to t. We formalize this through Targeted epsilon-Robustness, certifying whether a feature subset remains robust under perturbation toward a specific target class. ViTaX is the first method to provide formally guaranteed explanations of a model's resilience against user-identified alternatives. Evaluations on MNIST, GTSRB, EMNIST, and TaxiNet demonstrate over 30% fidelity improvement with minimal explanation cardinality.

We introduce the Hiremath Early Detection (HED) Score, a principled, measure-theoretic evaluation criterion for quantifying the time-value of information in systems operating over non-stationary stochastic processes subject to abrupt regime transitions. Existing evaluation paradigms, chiefly the ROC/AUC framework and its downstream variants, are temporally agnostic: they assign identical credit to a detection at t + 1 and a detection at t + tau for arbitrarily large tau. This indifference to latency is a fundamental inadequacy in time-critical domains including cyber-physical security, algorithmic surveillance, and epidemiological monitoring. The HED Score resolves this by integrating a baseline-neutral, exponentially decaying kernel over the posterior probability stream of a target regime, beginning precisely at the onset of the regime shift. The resulting scalar simultaneously encodes detection acuity, temporal lead, and pre-transition calibration quality. We prove that the HED Score satisfies three axiomatic requirements: (A1) Temporal Monotonicity, (A2) Invariance to Pre-Attack Bias, and (A3) Sensitivity Decomposability. We further demonstrate that the HED Score admits a natural parametric family indexed by the Hiremath Decay Constant (lambda_H), whose domain-specific calibration constitutes the Hiremath Standard Table. As an empirical vehicle, we present PARD-SSM (Probabilistic Anomaly and Regime Detection via Switching State-Space Models), which couples fractional Stochastic Differential Equations (fSDEs) with a Switching Linear Dynamical System (S-LDS) inference backend. On the NSL-KDD benchmark, PARD-SSM achieves a HED Score of 0.0643, representing a 388.8 percent improvement over a Random Forest baseline (0.0132), with statistical significance confirmed via block-bootstrap resampling (p < 0.001). We propose the HED Score as the successor evaluation standard to ROC/AUC.

Speculative sampling (SpS) has been successful in accelerating the decoding throughput of auto-regressive large language models by leveraging smaller draft models. SpS strictly enforces the generated distribution to match that of the verifier LLM. This is unnecessarily restrictive as slight variations of the verifier's distribution, such as sampling with top-$k$ or temperature, would also be acceptable. Typical acceptance sampling (TAS) alleviates this issue by accepting more tokens using entropy-based heuristics. However, this approach distorts the verifier distribution, potentially degrading output quality when the verifier encodes critical information. In this work, we formalize the speculative sampling algorithm through the lens of constrained optimization. Based on this formulation, we propose Cactus (constrained acceptance speculative sampling), a method that guarantees controlled divergence from the verifier distribution and increasing acceptance rates. Empirical results across a wide range of benchmarks confirm the effectiveness of our approach.

We propose a variance-penalized formulation of Bayesian optimal experimental design for nonlinear models that augments the classical expected utility criterion with a penalty on utility variability, yielding a mean–variance objective that promotes robust experimental performance. To evaluate this objective, we develop Monte Carlo estimators for the expected utility, its second moment, and the resulting utility variance using prior sampling, thereby avoiding explicit posterior sampling. We then derive leading-order bias and variance expressions using conditional delta-method arguments. The objective is optimized using Bayesian optimization with common random samples to reduce noise. Numerical examples, including a linear-Gaussian benchmark, a nonlinear test problem, and contaminant source inversion in diffusion fields, demonstrate that the proposed approach identifies designs with substantially reduced variability while maintaining competitive expected utility.

K-means clustering, a classic and widely-used clustering technique, is known to exhibit suboptimal performance when applied to non-linearly separable data. Numerous adjustments and modifications have been proposed to address this issue, including methods that merge K-means results from a relatively large K to obtain a final cluster assignment. However, existing methods of this nature often encounter computational inefficiencies and suffer from hyperparameter tuning. Here we present CavMerge, a novel K-means merging algorithm that is intuitive, free of parameter tuning, and computationally efficient. Operating under minimal local distributional assumptions, our algorithm demonstrates strong consistency and rapid convergence guarantees. Empirical studies on various simulated and real datasets demonstrate that our method yields more reliable clusters in comparison to current state-of-the-art algorithms.

Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) investigate participants' preferences by observing their choice behavior in hypothetical scenarios and are widely used in the domain of healthcare. To reduce participants' cognitive burden, especially when dealing with a large number of attributes, researchers often employ partial profile designs. In these designs, certain attributes within each choice set are kept constant. Current literature on partial profile designs mainly focuses on main-effects models rather than interaction-effect models, with certain partial profile designs even incapable of estimating interaction effects. To address this issue, this paper introduces an Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm to construct partial profile designs based on an interaction-effects model. During the experimental design phase, the existence and magnitude of interaction effects are often unknown. Therefore, this paper proposes a model-robust experimental design strategy. Through extensive simulation experiments and a real-life case study, we demonstrate that our SA model-robust partial profile design performs relatively well regardless of the underlying model.

This paper proposes sequential estimators for the relative risk, odds ratio, log relative risk or log odds ratio of a dichotomous attribute in two populations. The estimators take the same number of observations from each population, and ensure that the relative mean-square error for the relative risk or odds ratio, or the mean-square error for their logarithmic versions, is less than a given target, regardless of the value of the estimated parameter. The estimation efficiency, computed with respect to the Cramér-Rao bound, is high when the considered attribute is rare or moderately rare.

Causal inference is central to scientific discovery, yet choosing appropriate methods remains challenging because of the complexity of both statistical methodology and real-world data. Inspired by the success of artificial intelligence in accelerating scientific discovery, we introduce InferenceEvolve, an evolutionary framework that uses large language models to discover and iteratively refine causal methods. Across widely used benchmarks, InferenceEvolve yields estimators that consistently outperform established baselines: against 58 human submissions in a recent community competition, our best evolved estimator lay on the Pareto frontier across two evaluation metrics. We also developed robust proxy objectives for settings without semi-synthetic outcomes, with competitive results. Analysis of the evolutionary trajectories shows that agents progressively discover sophisticated strategies tailored to unrevealed data-generating mechanisms. These findings suggest that language-model-guided evolution can optimize structured scientific programs such as causal inference, even when outcomes are only partially observed.

We develop a rigorous theoretical framework for principal manifold estimation that recovers a latent low-dimensional manifold from a point cloud observed in a high-dimensional ambient space. Our framework accommodates manifolds with general, potentially non-Euclidean topology, which can be inferred using tools from topological data analysis. Using the theory of Sobolev spaces on Riemannian manifolds, we establish that the proposed principal manifolds are well defined, prove convergence of the iterative algorithm used to compute them, and show consistency of the finite-sample estimator. Furthermore, we introduce a novel method for selecting the complexity level of a fitted manifold, which addresses the shortcomings of the classical fitting-error criterion. We also provide a detailed geometric interpretation of the penalty term in our framework. In addition to the theoretical developments, we present extensive numerical experiments supporting our results. This article provides theoretical foundations for approaches that have been used in applications such as robotics. More importantly, it extends these approaches to general topological settings with potential applications across a broad range of disciplines, including neuroimaging and shape data analysis.

Expectation Propagation (EP) is a widely used iterative message-passing algorithm that decomposes a global inference problem into multiple local ones. It approximates marginal distributions as “beliefs” using intermediate functions called “messages”. It has been shown that the stationary points of EP are the same as corresponding constrained Bethe Free Energy (BFE) optimization problem. Therefore, EP is an iterative method of optimizing the constrained BFE. However, the iterative method may fall out of the feasible set of the BFE optimization problem, i.e., the beliefs are not integrable. In most literature, the authors use various methods to keep all the messages integrable. In most Bayesian estimation problems, limiting the messages to be integrable shrinks the actual feasible set. Furthermore, in extreme cases where the factors are not integrable, making the message itself integrable is not enough to have integrable beliefs. In this paper, two EP frameworks are proposed to ensure that EP has integrable beliefs. Both of the methods allows non-integrable messages. We then investigate the signal recovery problem in Generalized Linear Model (GLM) using our proposed methods.

We investigate the arithmetic-harmonic inequality (AHI) index, a bounded and scale-invariant measure of dispersion for positive random variables, defined through the interplay between the mean and its reciprocal. We derive analytical expressions for the AHI index within the generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) family, encompassing the inverse Gaussian and gamma distributions as important special cases. We study the associated estimator, obtain a tractable expression for its expectation, establish its asymptotic properties, and derive explicit first-order bias approximations. A Monte Carlo study is conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the estimator under various scenarios. An application to GDP per capita data for countries in the Americas illustrates the role of the AHI index within the broader Atkinson family across several values of the inequality-aversion parameter. The results show the good performance of the AHI index as a tractable and interpretable measure of economic dispersion.

We study robust regression under a contamination model in which covariates are clean while the responses may be corrupted in an adaptive manner. Unlike the classical Huber's contamination model, where both covariates and responses may be contaminated and consistent estimation is impossible when the contamination proportion is a non-vanishing constant, it turns out that the clean-covariate setting admits strictly improved statistical guarantees. Specifically, we show that the additional information in the clean covariates can be carefully exploited to construct an estimator that achieves a better estimation rate than that attainable under Huber contamination. In contrast to the Huber model, this improved rate implies consistency even when the contamination is a constant. A matching minimax lower bound is established using Fano's inequality together with the construction of contamination processes that match $m> 2$ distributions simultaneously, extending the previous two-point lower bound argument in Huber's setting. Despite the improvement over the Huber model from an information-theoretic perspective, we provide formal evidence – in the form of Statistical Query and Low-Degree Polynomial lower bounds – that the problem exhibits strong information-computation gaps. Our results strongly suggest that the information-theoretic improvements cannot be achieved by polynomial-time algorithms, revealing a fundamental gap between information-theoretic and computational limits in robust regression with clean covariates.