Papers

We study infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problems with observable side information: a Markov chain that modulates an unknown context-conditional randomness distribution. Since this distribution is unknown, we propose a Bayesian reformulation based on a parametric density model and posterior predictive dynamics, which yields a Bayesian Bellman equation. We prove posterior consistency under Markov samples and, under correct specification and identifiability, uniform convergence of the Bayesian value function. Finally, we establish Bernstein–von Mises-type asymptotic normality for the data-driven contextual optimal value.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased observational data collected under historical targeting policies. Although observational logs offer the advantage of scale, they inherently suffer from severe policyinduced imbalance and overlap violations, rendering standalone estimation unreliable. We propose a budgeted active experimentation framework that iteratively enhances model training for causal effect estimation via active sampling. By leveraging observational priors, we develop an acquisition function targeting uplift estimation uncertainty, overlap deficits, and domain discrepancy to select the most informative units for randomized experiments. We establish finite-sample deviation bounds, asymptotic normality via martingale Central Limit Theorems (CLTs), and minimax lower bounds to prove information-theoretic optimality. Extensive experiments on industrial datasets demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms standard randomized baselines in cost-constrained settings.

In recent years, the machine learning community has increasingly embraced the optimal transport (OT) framework for modeling distributional relationships. In this work, we introduce a sample-based neural solver for computing the Wasserstein geodesic between a source and target distribution, along with the associated velocity field. Building on the dynamical formulation of the optimal transport (OT) problem, we recast the constrained optimization as a minimax problem, using deep neural networks to approximate the relevant functions. This approach not only provides the Wasserstein geodesic but also recovers the OT map, enabling direct sampling from the target distribution. By estimating the OT map, we obtain velocity estimates along particle trajectories, which in turn allow us to learn the full velocity field. The framework is flexible and readily extends to general cost functions, including the commonly used quadratic cost. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments on both synthetic and real datasets.

Adaptive designs dynamically update treatment probabilities using information accumulated during the experiment. Existing theory for causal inference from adaptive experiments primarily assumes the superpopulation framework with independent and identically distributed units, and may not apply when the distribution of units evolves over time. This paper makes two contributions. First, we extend the literature to the finite-population framework, which allows for possibly nonexchangeable units, and establish the design-based theory for causal inference under general adaptive designs using inverse-propensity-weighted (IPW) and augmented IPW (AIPW) estimators. Our theory accommodates nonexchangeable units, both nonconverging and vanishing treatment probabilities, and nonconverging outcome estimators, thereby justifying inference using AIPW estimators with black-box outcome models that integrate advances from machine learning methods. To alleviate the conservativeness inherent in variance estimation under finite-population inference, we also introduce a covariance estimator for the AIPW estimator that becomes sharp when the residuals from the adaptive regression of potential outcomes on covariates are additive across units. Our framework encompasses widely used adaptive designs, such as multi-armed bandits, covariate-adaptive randomization, and sequential rerandomization, advancing the design-based theory for causal inference in these specific settings. Second, as a methodological contribution, we propose an adaptive covariate adjustment approach for analyzing even nonadaptive designs. The martingale structure induced by adaptive adjustment enables valid inference with black-box outcome estimators that would otherwise require strong assumptions under standard nonadaptive analysis.

The proportion of edges in a Gaussian graphical model (GGM) characterizes the complexity of its conditional dependence structure. Since edge presence corresponds to a nonzero entry of the precision matrix, estimation of this proportion can be formulated as a large-scale multiple testing problem. We propose an estimator that combines p-values from simultaneous edge-wise tests, conducted under false discovery rate control, with Storey's estimator of the proportion of true null hypotheses. We establish weak dependence conditions on the precision matrix under which the empirical cumulative distribution function of the p-values converges to its population counterpart. These conditions cover high-dimensional regimes, including those arising in genetic association studies. Under such dependence, we characterize the asymptotic bias of the Schweder–Spjøtvoll estimator, showing that it is upward biased and thus slightly underestimates the true edge proportion. Simulation studies across a variety of models confirm accurate recovery of graph complexity.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have been used in many studies to synthesise mixed tabular data. Conditional tabular GAN (CTGAN) have been the most popular variant but struggle to effectively navigate the risk-utility trade-off. Bayesian GAN have received less attention for tabular data, but have been explored with unstructured data such as images and text. The most used technique employed in Bayesian GAN is Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), but it is computationally intensive, particularly in terms of weight storage. In this paper, we introduce Gaussian Approximation of CTGAN (GACTGAN), an integration of the Bayesian posterior approximation technique using Stochastic Weight Averaging-Gaussian (SWAG) within the CTGAN generator to synthesise tabular data, reducing computational overhead after the training phase. We demonstrate that GACTGAN yields better synthetic data compared to CTGAN, achieving better preservation of tabular structure and inferential statistics with less privacy risk. These results highlight GACTGAN as a simpler, effective implementation of Bayesian tabular synthesis.

Root cause analysis (RCA) in networked industrial systems, such as supply chains and power networks, is notoriously difficult due to unknown and dynamically evolving interdependencies among geographically distributed clients. These clients represent heterogeneous physical processes and industrial assets equipped with sensors that generate large volumes of nonlinear, high-dimensional, and heterogeneous IoT data. Classical RCA methods require partial or full knowledge of the system's dependency graph, which is rarely available in these complex networks. While federated learning (FL) offers a natural framework for decentralized settings, most existing FL methods assume homogeneous feature spaces and retrainable client models. These assumptions are not compatible with our problem setting. Different clients have different data features and often run fixed, proprietary models that cannot be modified. This paper presents a federated cross-client interdependency learning methodology for feature-partitioned, nonlinear time-series data, without requiring access to raw sensor streams or modifying proprietary client models. Each proprietary local client model is augmented with a Machine Learning (ML) model that encodes cross-client interdependencies. These ML models are coordinated via a global server that enforces representation consistency while preserving privacy through calibrated differential privacy noise. RCA is performed using model residuals and anomaly flags. We establish theoretical convergence guarantees and validate our approach on extensive simulations and a real-world industrial cybersecurity dataset.

A kidney transplant can improve the life expectancy and quality of life of patients with end-stage renal failure. Even more patients could be helped with a transplant if the rate of kidneys that are discarded and not transplanted could be reduced. Machine learning (ML) can support decision-making in this context by early identification of donor organs at high risk of discard, for instance to enable timely interventions to improve organ utilization such as rescue allocation. Although various ML models have been applied, their results are difficult to compare due to heterogenous datasets and differences in feature engineering and evaluation strategies. This study aims to provide a systematic and reproducible comparison of ML models for donor kidney discard prediction. We trained five commonly used ML models: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Deep Learning along with an ensemble model on data from 4,080 deceased donors (death determined by neurologic criteria) in Germany. A unified benchmarking framework was implemented, including standardized feature engineering and selection, and Bayesian hyperparameter optimization. Model performance was assessed for discrimination (MCC, AUC, F1), calibration (Brier score), and explainability (SHAP). The ensemble achieved the highest discrimination performance (MCC=0.76, AUC=0.87, F1=0.90), while individual models such as Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Deep Learning performed comparably and better than Decision Trees. Platt scaling improved calibration for tree-and neural network-based models. SHAP consistently identified donor age and renal markers as dominant predictors across models, reflecting clinical plausibility. This study demonstrates that consistent data preprocessing, feature selection, and evaluation can be more decisive for predictive success than the choice of the ML algorithm.

Representing, comparing, and measuring the distance between probability distributions is a key task in computational statistics and machine learning. The choice of representation and the associated distance determine properties of the methods in which they are used: for example, certain distances can allow one to encode robustness or smoothness of the problem. Kernel methods offer flexible and rich Hilbert space representations of distributions that allow the modeller to enforce properties through the choice of kernel, and estimate associated distances at efficient nonparametric rates. In particular, the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), a kernel-based distance constructed by comparing Hilbert space mean functions, has received significant attention due to its computational tractability and is favoured by practitioners. In this thesis, we conduct a thorough study of kernel-based distances with a focus on efficient computation, with core contributions in Chapters 3 to 6. Part I of the thesis is focused on the MMD, specifically on improved MMD estimation. In Chapter 3 we propose a theoretically sound, improved estimator for MMD in simulation-based inference. Then, in Chapter 4, we propose an MMD-based estimator for conditional expectations, a ubiquitous task in statistical computation. Closing Part I, in Chapter 5 we study the problem of calibration when MMD is applied to the task of integration. In Part II, motivated by the recent developments in kernel embeddings beyond the mean, we introduce a family of novel kernel-based discrepancies: kernel quantile discrepancies. These address some of the pitfalls of MMD, and are shown through both theoretical results and an empirical study to offer a competitive alternative to MMD and its fast approximations. We conclude with a discussion on broader lessons and future work emerging from the thesis.

p-hacking occurs when researchers conduct multiple significance tests (e.g., p1;H0,1 and p2;H0,2) and then selectively report tests that yield desirable (usually significant) results (e.g., p2 < 0.05;H0,2) without correcting for multiple testing (e.g., 0.05/2 = 0.025). In the present article, I consider p-hacking in the context of two philosophies of significance testing - the error statistical approach and the formal inference approach. I argue that although p-hacking inflates Type I error rates in the error statistical approach, it does not inflate them in the formal inference approach. Specifically, in the error statistical approach, the "actual" familywise error rate (e.g., 1 - [1 - 0.05]2 = 0.098 for two independent tests) is relevant because it covers both the reported and unreported tests in the "actual" test procedure (i.e., p1;H0,1 and p2;H0,2). In this approach, Type I error rate inflation occurs because the "actual" error rate (0.098) is higher than the nominal error rate (0.05). In contrast, in the formal inference approach, the "actual" familywise error rate is irrelevant because (a) the researcher does not report a statistical inference about the corresponding intersection null hypothesis (i.e., H0,1 & H0,2), and (b) the "actual" familywise error rate does not license inferences about the reported individual hypotheses (i.e., H0,2). Instead, in the formal inference approach, only the nominal error rate is relevant, and a comparison with the "actual" error rate is inappropriate. Implications for conceptualizing, demonstrating, and reducing p-hacking are discussed.

Alignment and adaptation in large language models heavily rely on reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF); yet, theoretical understanding of its generalisability remains premature, especially when the learned reward could shift, and the KL control is estimated and clipped. To address this issue, we develop generalisation theory for RLHF that explicitly accounts for (1) reward shift: reward models are trained on preference data from earlier or mixed behaviour policies while RLHF optimises the current policy on its own rollouts; and (2) clipped KL regularisation: the KL regulariser is estimated from sampled log-probability ratios and then clipped for stabilisation, resulting in an error to RLHF. We present generalisation bounds for RLHF, suggesting that the generalisation error stems from a sampling error from prompts and rollouts, a reward shift error, and a KL clipping error. We also discuss special cases of (1) initialising RLHF parameters with a uniform prior over a finite space, and (2) training RLHF by stochastic gradient descent, as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The theory yields practical implications in (1) optimal KL clipping threshold, and (2) budget allocation in prompts, rollouts, and preference data.

We introduce a novel method for estimating the self-similarity index of a general $H$-self-similar process with either stationary or non-stationary increments. The estimation algorithm is developed based on a modified Lamperti transformation, which transforms $H$-self-similar processes to stationary ones. As an application, we show how to use this approach to estimate the self-similarity index of fractional Brownian motion, subfractional Brownian motion, bifractional Brownian motion, and trifractional Brownian motion. Simulation study is performed to support the consistency of our estimators. Implementation in Python is publicly shared. Application on the estimation of the self-similarity index of the Nile river water level data from the year 900 to 1200 C.E..

Estimating the number of the number of people from hidden and/or marginalised populations - such as people dependent on opioids or cocaine - is important to guide policy decisions and provision of harm reduction services. Methods such as capture-recapture are widely used, but rely on assumptions that are often violated and not feasible in specific applications. We describe a Bayesian modelling approach called Multi-Parameter Estimation of Prevalence (MPEP). The MPEP approach leverages routinely collected administrative data, starting from a large baseline cohort of individuals from the population of interest and linked events, to estimate the full size of the target population. When multiple event types are included, the approach enables checking of the consistency of evidence about prevalence from different event types. Additional evidence can be incorporated where inconsistencies are identified. In this article, we summarize the general framework of MPEP, with focus on the most recent version, with improved computational efficiency (implemented in STAN). We also explore several extensions to the model that help us understand the sensitivity of the results to modelling assumptions or identify potential sources of bias. We demonstrate the MPEP approach through a case study estimating the prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland each year from 2014 to 2022.

Longitudinal data often involve heterogeneity, sparse signals, and contamination from response outliers or high-leverage observations especially in biomedical science. Existing methods usually address only part of this problem, either emphasizing penalized mixed effects modeling without robustness or robust mixed effects estimation without high-dimensional variable selection. We propose a doubly adaptive robust regression (DAR-R) framework for longitudinal linear mixed effects models. It combines a robust pilot fit, doubly adaptive observation weights for residual outliers and leverage points, and folded concave penalization for fixed effect selection, together with weighted updates of random effects and variance components. We develop an iterative reweighting algorithm and establish estimation and prediction error bounds, support recovery consistency, and oracle-type asymptotic normality. Simulations show that DAR-R improves estimation accuracy, false-positive control, and covariance estimation under both vertical outliers and bad leverage contamination. In the TADPOLE/ADNI Alzheimer's disease application, DAR-R achieves accurate and stable prediction of ADAS13 while selecting clinically meaningful predictors with strong resampling stability.

A central challenge in scientific machine learning (ML) is the correct representation of physical systems governed by multi-regime behaviours. In these scenarios, standard data analysis techniques often fail to capture the nature of the data, as the system's response varies significantly across the state space due to its stochasticity and the different physical regimes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) should thus not be viewed merely as a safety assessment, but as a support to the learning task itself, guiding the model to internalise the behaviour of the data. We address this by focusing on the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) benchmark and dataset presented by the OECD/NEA Expert Group on Reactor Systems Multi-Physics. This case study represents a test for scientific ML due to the non-linear dependence of CHF on the inputs and the existence of distinct microscopic physical regimes. These regimes exhibit diverse statistical profiles, a complexity that requires UQ techniques to internalise the data behaviour and ensure reliable predictions. In this work, we conduct a comparative analysis of UQ methodologies to determine their impact on physical representation. We contrast post-hoc methods, specifically conformal prediction, against end-to-end coverage-oriented pipelines, including (Bayesian) heteroscedastic regression and quality-driven losses. These approaches treat uncertainty not as a final metric, but as an active component of the optimisation process, modelling the prediction and its behaviour simultaneously. We show that while post-hoc methods ensure statistical calibration, coverage-oriented learning effectively reshapes the model's representation to match the complex physical regimes. The result is a model that delivers not only high predictive accuracy but also a physically consistent uncertainty estimation that adapts dynamically to the intrinsic variability of the CHF.

We consider regression models with data of the type $y_i=m(x_i)+\varepsilon_i$, where the $m(x)$ curve is taken locally constant, with unknown levels and jump points. We investigate the large-sample properties of the minimum least squares estimators, finding in particular that jump point parameters and level parameters are estimated with respectively $n$-rate precision and $\sqrt{n}$-rate precision, where $n$ is sample size. Bayes solutions are investigated as well and found to be superior. We then construct jump information criteria, respectively AJIC and BJIC, for selecting the right number of jump points from data. This is done by following the line of arguments that lead to the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria AIC and BIC, but which here lead to different formulae due to the different type of large-sample approximations involved.

Many applications seek to optimize LLM outputs at test time by iteratively proposing, scoring, and refining candidates over a discrete output space. Existing methods use a calibrated scalar evaluator for the target objective to guide search, but for many tasks such scores are unavailable, too sparse, or unreliable. Pairwise comparisons, by contrast, are often easier to elicit, still provide useful signal on improvement directions, and can be obtained from the LLM itself without external supervision. Building on this observation, we introduce Duel-Evolve, an evolutionary optimization algorithm that replaces external scalar rewards with pairwise preferences elicited from the same LLM used to generate candidates. Duel-Evolve aggregates these noisy candidate comparisons via a Bayesian Bradley-Terry model, yielding uncertainty-aware estimates of candidate quality. These quality estimates guide allocation of the comparison budget toward plausible optima using Double Thompson Sampling, as well as selection of high-quality parents to generate improved candidates. We evaluate Duel-Evolve on MathBench, where it achieves 20 percentage points higher accuracy over existing methods and baselines, and on LiveCodeBench, where it improves over comparable iterative methods by over 12 percentage points. Notably, the method requires no reward model, no ground-truth labels during search, and no hand-crafted scoring function. Results show that pairwise self-preferences provide strong optimization signal for test-time improvement over large, discrete output spaces.

We examine the optimality properties of the Gini index estimator under complex survey design involving stratification, clustering, and sub-stratification. While Darku et al. (Econometrics, 26, 2020) considered only stratification and clustering and did not provide theoretical guarantees, this study addresses these limitations by proposing two procedures - a purely sequential method and a two-stage method. Under suitable regularity conditions, we establish uniform continuity in probability for the proposed estimator, thereby contributing to the development of random central limit theorems under sequential sampling frameworks. Furthermore, we show that the resulting procedures satisfy both asymptotic first-order efficiency and asymptotic consistency. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed procedures achieve the desired optimality properties across diverse settings. The practical utility of the methodology is further illustrated through an empirical application using data collected by the National Sample Survey agency of India

Ordinal categorical data are widely collected in psychology, education, and other social sciences, appearing commonly in questionnaires, assessments, and surveys. Latent class models provide a flexible framework for uncovering unobserved heterogeneity by grouping individuals into homogeneous classes based on their response patterns. A fundamental challenge in applying these models is determining the number of latent classes, which is unknown and must be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose one test statistic for this problem. The test statistic centers the largest singular value of a normalized residual matrix by a simple sample-size adjustment. Under the null hypothesis that the candidate number of latent classes is correct, its upper bound converges to zero in probability. Under an under-fitted alternative, the statistic itself exceeds a fixed positive constant with probability approaching one. This sharp dichotomous behavior of the test statistic yields two sequential testing algorithms that consistently estimate the true number of latent classes. Extensive experimental studies confirm the theoretical findings and demonstrate their accuracy and reliability in determining the number of latent classes.

Estimating the asymmetric numbers of communities in multi-layer directed networks is a challenging problem due to the multi-layer structures and inherent directional asymmetry, leading to possibly different numbers of sender and receiver communities. This work addresses this issue under the multi-layer stochastic co-block model, a model for multi-layer directed networks with distinct community structures in sending and receiving sides, by proposing a novel goodness-of-fit test. The test statistic relies on the deviation of the largest singular value of an aggregated normalized residual matrix from the constant 2. The test statistic exhibits a sharp dichotomy: Under the null hypothesis of correct model specification, its upper bound converges to zero with high probability; under underfitting, the test statistic itself diverges to infinity. With this property, we develop a sequential testing procedure that searches through candidate pairs of sender and receiver community numbers in a lexicographic order. The process stops at the smallest such pair where the test statistic drops below a decaying threshold. For robustness, we also propose a ratio-based variant algorithm, which detects sharp changes in the sequence of test statistics by comparing consecutive candidates. Both methods are proven to consistently determine the true numbers of sender and receiver communities under the multi-layer stochastic co-block model.

The goal of fair clustering is to find clusters such that the proportion of sensitive attributes (e.g., gender, race, etc.) in each cluster is similar to that of the entire dataset. Various fair clustering algorithms have been proposed that modify standard K-means clustering to satisfy a given fairness constraint. A critical limitation of several existing fair clustering algorithms is that the number of parameters to be learned is proportional to the sample size because the cluster assignment of each datum should be optimized simultaneously with the cluster center, and thus scaling up the algorithms is difficult. In this paper, we propose a new fair clustering algorithm based on a finite mixture model, called Fair Model-based Clustering (FMC). A main advantage of FMC is that the number of learnable parameters is independent of the sample size and thus can be scaled up easily. In particular, mini-batch learning is possible to obtain clusters that are approximately fair. Moreover, FMC can be applied to non-metric data (e.g., categorical data) as long as the likelihood is well-defined. Theoretical and empirical justifications for the superiority of the proposed algorithm are provided.

This guide provides a reference for high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization (ERM). The presentation is modular: we begin with intuition and general proof strategies, then state broadly applicable guarantees under high-level conditions and provide tools for verifying them for specific losses and function classes. We emphasize that many ERM rate derivations can be organized around a three-step recipe – a basic inequality, a uniform local concentration bound, and a fixed-point argument – which yields regret bounds in terms of a critical radius, defined via localized Rademacher complexity, under a mild Bernstein-type variance-risk condition. To make these bounds concrete, we upper bound the critical radius using local maximal inequalities and metric-entropy integrals, thereby recovering familiar rates for VC-subgraph, Sobolev/Hölder, and bounded-variation classes. We also study ERM with nuisance components – including weighted ERM and Neyman-orthogonal losses – as they arise in causal inference, missing data, and domain adaptation. Following the orthogonal statistical learning framework, we highlight that these problems often admit regret-transfer bounds linking regret under an estimated loss to population regret under the target loss. These bounds typically decompose the regret into (i) statistical error under the estimated loss and (ii) approximation error due to nuisance estimation. Under sample splitting or cross-fitting, the first term can be controlled using standard fixed-loss ERM regret bounds, while the second depends only on nuisance-estimation accuracy. As a novel contribution, we also treat the in-sample regime, in which the nuisances and the ERM are fit on the same data, deriving regret bounds and showing that fast oracle rates remain attainable under suitable smoothness and Donsker-type conditions.

Understanding the structural mechanisms of multi-layer networks is essential for analyzing complex systems characterized by multiple interacting layers. This work studies the problem of estimating connection probabilities in multi-layer networks and introduces a new Multi-layer Iterative Connection Probability Estimation (MICE) method. The proposed approach employs an iterative framework that jointly refines inter-layer and intra-layer similarity sets by dynamically updating distance metrics derived from current probability estimates. By leveraging both layer-level and node-level neighborhood information, MICE improves estimation accuracy while preserving computational efficiency. Theoretical analysis establishes the consistency of the estimator and shows that, under mild regularity conditions, the proposed method achieves an optimal convergence rate comparable to that of an oracle estimator. Extensive simulation studies across diverse graphon structures demonstrate the superior performance of MICE relative to existing methods. Empirical evaluations using brain network data from patients with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and global food and agricultural trade network data further illustrate the robustness and effectiveness of the method in link prediction tasks. Overall, this work provides a theoretically grounded and practically scalable framework for probabilistic modeling and inference in multi-layer network systems.

Spectral properties of Gram matrices are central to high dimensional asymptotic analyses of statistical estimators in regression and covariance estimation. These properties, in turn, depend critically on the extreme singular values and condition numbers of Gaussian random matrices. For many applications, sharp positive and negative moment bounds for these quantities are required to control expected prediction risk and related performance metrics. Although extensive work provides concentration and tail bounds for extreme singular values of Gaussian random matrices, these results do not readily yield the moment bounds needed in such analyses. Motivated by this gap, we establish non asymptotic moment bounds for arbitrary positive moments of the largest singular value and arbitrary negative moments of the smallest singular value, and uniform bounds for arbitrary positive moments of the condition number of high dimensional Gaussian random matrices. We demonstrate the utility of these bounds by applying them to derive explicit risk guarantees in high dimensional regression and covariance estimation, as well as to obtain bounds on the mean iteration complexity of gradient descent for solving Gram linear systems. Finally, we present counterexamples demonstrating that the positive condition number moment bounds and negative smallest singular value moment bounds cannot, in general, be extended to the broader class of sub Gaussian random matrices.

Across many risk-sensitive areas, it is critical to continuously audit machine learning systems as we receive more data to quickly determine if they are performing as designed. This auditing task can be modeled as a sequential hypothesis testing problem with $k$ data streams and a global null hypothesis that asserts the system operates as intended across all $k$ streams. Under the alternative, the standard global sequential test, which uses a Bonferroni correction, has an expected stopping time of $O\left(\ln \frac{k}{\alpha}\right)$ for large $k$ and significance level $\alpha$. In this work, we demonstrate that efficient sequential tests, relying on merging martingales via averaging and products rules, provide improved stopping times, and thus more powerful tests against the null. Using these results, we show that a balanced test can match the Bonferroni rate of $O\left(\ln \frac{k}{\alpha}\right)$ in the sparse regime (just a few non-null streams) while achieving $O\left(\frac{1}{k}\ln \frac{1}{\alpha}\right)$ under dense alternatives (many non-null steams). We validate our theory through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data.

We study inference on scalar-valued pathwise differentiable targets after adaptive data collection, such as a bandit algorithm. We introduce a novel target-specific condition, directional stability, which is strictly weaker than previously imposed target-agnostic stability conditions. Under directional stability, we show that estimators that would have been efficient under i.i.d. data remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient when computed from adaptively collected trajectories. The canonical gradient has a martingale form, and directional stability guarantees stabilization of its predictable quadratic variation, enabling high-dimensional asymptotic normality. We characterize efficiency using a convolution theorem for the adaptive-data setting, and give a condition under which the one-step estimator attains the efficiency bound. We verify directional stability for LinUCB, yielding the first semiparametric efficiency guarantee for a regular scalar target under LinUCB sampling.

Li and Hu recently established variance-type O(1/n) bounds for the sample mean of independent random vectors under sublinear expectations. We extend their results to the exponential concentration regime. For bounded, independent R^d-valued random vectors under a regular sublinear expectation, we prove: (i) a general concentration principle that reduces vector-valued tail bounds to scalar martingale inequalities via a three-layer architecture; (ii) an Azuma-Hoeffding inequality showing that the distance from the sample mean to the Minkowski average of the expectation sets has sub-Gaussian tails; (iii) a Bernstein inequality incorporating the variance parameter of Li and Hu, interpolating between sub-Gaussian and sub-exponential regimes; (iv) a dimension-free bound replacing the exponential covering prefactor with a polynomial one via the matrix Freedman inequality; and (v) an explicit construction demonstrating that the sub-Gaussian rate is optimal. To the best of our knowledge, these constitute the first exponential concentration inequalities for the multivariate sample mean under sublinear expectations in terms of the set-valued distance to the Minkowski average.

We describe extensive numerical experiments assessing and quantifying how classifier performance depends on the quality of the training data, a frequently neglected component of the analysis of classifiers. More specifically, in the scientific context of metagenomic assembly of short DNA reads into "contigs," we examine the effects of degrading the quality of the training data by multiple mechanisms, and for four classifiers – Bayes classifiers, neural nets, partition models and random forests. We investigate both individual behavior and congruence among the classifiers. We find breakdown-like behavior that holds for all four classifiers, as degradation increases and they move from being mostly correct to only coincidentally correct, because they are wrong in the same way. In the process, a picture of spatial heterogeneity emerges: as the training data move farther from analysis data, classifier decisions degenerate, the boundary becomes less dense, and congruence increases.

We present a new algorithm for clustering longitudinal data. Data of this type can be conceptualized as consisting of individuals and, for each such individual, observations of a time-dependent variable made at various times. Generically, the specific way in which this variable evolves with time is different from one individual to the next. However, there may also be commonalities; specific characteristic features of the time evolution shared by many individuals. The purpose of the method we put forward is to find clusters of individual whose underlying time-dependent variables share such characteristic features. This is done in two steps. The first step identifies each individual to a point in Euclidean space whose coordinates are determined by specific mathematical formulae meant to capture a variety of characteristic features. The second step finds the clusters by applying the Spectral Clustering algorithm to the resulting point cloud.

Shift-share designs are gaining popularity in political science. This article introduces what shift-share designs are, reviews their application in the literature, synthesizes recent methodological developments, and discusses their potential utility in the field. Although shift-share designs have a long historical use in economics, their causal properties only recently began to be understood. Articles in political science tend to be aware of these developments, but do not fully discuss and test identifying assumptions and sometimes apply the methods incorrectly. Most articles rely on the share exogeneity framework, suggesting that the shifter exogeneity framework is underutilized despite its comparable prevalence in economics. I illustrate shifter exogeneity framework and develop auxiliary theoretical results that are potentially useful in applying the framework in political science settings.