Probability · Cross-listed from cs.CC
Sharp Hardness for MAX-3-CUT and Quantum MAX-CUT
Steven Heilman
Assuming the Unique Games
Conjecture, we show it is NP-hard to approximate MAX-3-CUT within a multiplicative factor of $\alpha_3+\epsilon$ for every $\epsilon>0$, where $\alpha_3\approx.83600811464$ is the approximation ratio of Frieze-Jerrum's
polynomial-time
algorithm from 1995. That is, we prove sharp hardness of approximation for MAX-3-CUT. This result resolves a
conjecture of Khot-Kindler-Mossel-O'Donnell from 2004 by proving the three candidate Plurality is Stablest
Conjecture for correlations in $[-1/2,2/5]$ and generalizes the Majority is Stablest
Theorem of Mossel-O'Donnell-Oleszkiewicz [Annals of Math, 2010]. With a similar strategy we prove: assuming the Unique Games
Conjecture, it is NP-hard to approximate the product-state value of
Quantum MAX-CUT within a multiplicative factor of $\alpha_{\rm BOV}+\epsilon$ for every $\epsilon>0$, where $\alpha_{\rm BOV}\approx 0.9563372685$ is the approximation ratio of the Briët-de Oliveira Filho-Vallentin
algorithm. This sharp hardness result completes the conjectured hardness of Hwang-Neeman-Parekh-Thompson-Wright from 2021 by proving their $S^{k-1}$-valued Borell inequality for correlations in $[-.5843,.5843]$ for all $k\geq3$.
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Probability
Quadratic Perturbations of Markov Systems
Riddhi Pratim Ghosh, Mihai D. Staic and Sofia Stancu
In this paper we study a quadratic dynamical system that is a perturbation of a system of Markov processes. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for such a perturbation to be
stochastic, show the existence of fixed points, and present a few examples and possible applications. Finally, we derive explicit contraction conditions that guarantee uniqueness of the fixed point and
geometric convergence to it from every initial state.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.NT
Random Multiplicative Functions with Periodic Weights
Jeremy Schlitt
Given a Steinhaus random multiplicative function $f$, a $1$-periodic function of bounded variation $g$, and an irrational number $\alpha$, we study the distribution of $\sum_{n=1}^N f(n) g(\alpha n)$. We determine a necessary and sufficient condition for these sums, normalized by their standard deviation, to converge to the standard complex Gaussian distribution. On the other hand, we show that if we restrict the summands to have all their
prime factors $>z$, with $z$ tending to infinity arbitrarily slowly, then a central limit
theorem always holds for such sums.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST
Joint parameters estimation in cubic tensor model
Sumit Mukherjee, Arnab Sen and Qiang Wu
We study joint parameter estimation from a single observation in high-dimensional Gibbs measures with cubic tensor interactions, motivated by dense ERGMs, arithmetic-progression models, and inhomogeneous random hypergraphs. Focusing on the maximum pseudolikelihood
estimator, we give checkable conditions for joint consistency and asymptotic ill-conditioning. For the edge-triangle ERGM, pseudolikelihood is ill-conditioned in the ferromagnetic regime with nonnegative field, but consistent in a sufficiently strong antiferromagnetic regime. For the edge-three-
star ERGM, it is ill-conditioned for all inverse temperatures and external fields. We also study consistency for arithmetic-progression, and inhomogeneous hypergraph models. Our proofs develop nonlinear large-deviation and mean-field approximation tools for cubic tensor Gibbs measures, which have scope for broad applications.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.NA
Error of randomized Milstein scheme for scalar SDEs with noisy information about coefficients and Wiener process
Paweł M. Morkisz, Paweł Przybyłowicz and Martyna Wiącek
We investigate the strong approximation of scalar
stochastic differential equations when the available standard information about the drift coefficient, the
diffusion coefficient, the derivative of the
diffusion coefficient, and the observed Wiener path is corrupted by noise. The precision of the drift,
diffusion-information, and Wiener-path observations is described by three nonnegative parameters $\delta_1,\delta_2,\delta_3$, where $\delta_2$ controls both the noisy
diffusion coefficient and the separate noisy derivative oracle required in the Milstein correction. We analyze a randomized Milstein scheme based only on this noisy information and prove, for $r\geq 2$, that its $L^r$-error is bounded by $C(n^{-\min\{\gamma_1+1/2,\gamma_2\}}+\delta_1+\delta_2+\delta_3)$, where $n$ is the number of time steps and $\gamma_1,\gamma_2$ are the temporal Hölder exponents of the coefficients. We also prove a matching minimax lower bound in the randomized standard-information model considered in the paper. In particular, the Wiener-path contribution proportional to $\delta_3$ is unavoidable, and the noisy randomized Milstein scheme is minimax order-optimal.
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Probability
Tractable Relaxations of Multivariate Stochastic Dominance via Optimal Transport and CVaR
Bar Light
Many operational decisions involve alternatives with several uncertain attributes. When comparing such alternatives,
stochastic dominance requires every decision maker in a prescribed class to prefer one alternative to the other. These orders have two known limitations: a single extreme decision maker can rule out dominance, and multivariate dominance can be difficult to verify. To address these limitations, we develop two relaxations of their standard representations: compensated
stochastic dominance (CSD) relaxes Strassen's coupling representation, while reference-weighted
stochastic dominance (RWSD) relaxes the integral representation. We characterize the utility class generated by CSD, recovering known almost
stochastic dominance orders as special cases, and characterize it for RWSD in several cases. Importantly, we show that CSD and RWSD can each be checked by computing a single value, an optimal-transport value for CSD and a CVaR value for RWSD, and verifying that this value is nonpositive. This inequality characterization allows us to derive finite-sample guarantees for both orders, even when the outcome dimension is large. An application to Olist e-commerce data shows that, even when empirical FOSD fails, CSD and RWSD quantify how small this failure is and what is needed to overcome it.
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Probability
Generalized reflected BSDEs with irregular obstacles driven by RCLL increasing processes on general filtered space
Badr Elmansouri and Youssef Ouknine
We study generalized backward
stochastic differential equations (GBSDEs) and generalized reflected backward
stochastic differential equations (GRBSDEs) on a general filtered probability space satisfying the usual conditions, without assuming that the underlying filtration is quasi-left-continuous. The equations are driven by a prescribed predictable, bounded, nondecreasing RCLL process \(A\), which acts as a possibly discontinuous
stochastic clock, which we call a driver. We first establish a priori estimates, stability, existence, and uniqueness results for GBSDEs whose generator is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the state variable. Since \(A\) may have jumps, the analysis is carried out in weighted spaces defined through the
stochastic exponential \(\mathcal{E}(\beta A)\). We then investigate GRBSDEs with an optional regulated lower obstacle. When the generator is independent of the state variable, we develop two complementary approaches. The first relies on a Snell-envelope representation and optimal stopping arguments, while the second is based on a modified penalization procedure adapted to the discontinuities of the right jumps of the obstacle. The general Lipschitz case is subsequently obtained through a fixed-point argument in an appropriate weighted Banach space.
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Probability
Multi-hop visibility through the vacant set of Poissonian obstacles
Yingxin Mu and Artem Sapozhnikov
We study multi-hop visibility inside the vacant set of three obstacle models in $\mathbb R^d$ with slow decay of spatial correlations and disparate obstacle geometries: Poisson-Boolean models with general i.i.d. radii distributions, Poisson cylinders and Brownian interlacements. For any $N\geq 0$, we obtain sharp bounds on the probability $P_{\mathrm{vis}}^N(r)$ of visibility to distance $r$ via $(N+1)$ hops in terms of the (explicit) probability of direct visibility to distance $r$ in a given direction, generalizing our earlier result from arXiv:2304.10298 for $N=0$. We observe a universal behavior of $P_{\mathrm{vis}}^N(r)$ in terms of two characteristic scales. In the three models of interest, these scales are generally the same, but with some anomalous exceptions in low dimensions.
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Probability
Expected signatures via partial integration, coordinate change and symmetrization
Paul P. Hager and Luca Pelizzari
We study signature transformations of heterogeneous paths $Y=(A,X)$ whose components may differ in regularity and probabilistic structure. We introduce an invertible change of coordinates $\Psi$ such that the transformed signature $\Psi\circ\mathrm{Sig}$ eliminates mixed integration against the irregular component $X$ and admits a representation in terms of signature coordinates of $X$ and iterated integration against the regular component $A$. In addition, we exploit this representation to further represent partially symmetrized signatures. Our main application concerns new expected signature formulas for processes with deterministic augmentation. On the analytical side, these formulas are leveraged to study moment problems. On the numerical side, they enable accurate computation of expected signatures, thereby overcoming typical computational bottlenecks in applications. We illustrate these advantages in a signature-based
stochastic control problem driven by fractional Brownian motion.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.MG
Optimal mean width and metric entropy estimates for convex bodies
Grigoris Paouris and Reese Pathak
We show that for any $n \geq 1$ and any convex body $K \subset \mathbf{R}^n$, there exists $T \in \mathrm{SL}(n)$ such that \[ \mathrm{diam}(TK) \lesssim \sqrt{n} \mathrm{vr}(K), \quad \mbox{and} \quad M^\ast\Big(T(K-x) \cap r\mathrm{vr}(K)\,B^n_2\Big)\lesssim \mathrm{vr}(K) \sqrt{\log(\mathrm{e} r^2)}, \] for every $x \in K$ and every $r \geq 1$. Above, $M^\ast(\cdot)$ denotes the spherical mean width and $\mathrm{vr}(\cdot)$ denotes the volume radius. As a consequence, we establish for any convex body $K \subset \mathbf{R}^n$ that \[ 1 \leq \inf_{T \in \mathrm{SL}(n)} \, \frac{M^\ast(TK)}{\mathrm{vr}(K)} \lesssim \sqrt{\log(\mathrm{e} n)}. \] The estimates above are sharp, up to universal constants, as they are attained for the crosspolytope and any regular $n$-simplex. Up to universal constants, our results show that all quermassintegrals, and the logarithm of the covering numbers for all scales, simultaneously for $K$ and the polar body $K^\circ$, are maximized by the simplex and crosspolytope. Our proof makes use of Eldan's
stochastic localization. To establish the results, we work with an extension of Bobkov's maximal Gaussian measure position to possibly non-symmetric convex bodies. Our results imply that this position is an optimal "regular" Milman position, thereby improving a result of G. Pisier. We establish a non-symmetric analogue of the strong Gaussian (B)-
theorem which may be of independent interest.
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Probability
Fast Mixing for Low-Temperature Potts Models via Poisson Trees
Zongchen Chen, Andreas Galanis, Leslie Ann Goldberg et al. (+3 more)
The $q$-state ferromagnetic Potts model on a graph $G$ is a probability distribution on all $q$-colourings of $G$ that favours many monochromatic edges. Approximate sampling from the Potts model is a central problem in the study of
spin systems on sparse graphs, especially in the low-temperature regime, where the model strongly favours ordered configurations, often creating bottlenecks that make Markov-chain sampling inefficient or difficult to analyse. We focus on the sparse random graph $G(n,d/n)$. The local neighbourhoods of $G(n,d/n)$ are tree-like, but the relevant underlying graph is a Poisson Galton-Watson tree. This motivates the study of Glauber dynamics for the low-temperature Potts model on such trees with monochromatic boundary conditions. The Poisson setting introduces difficulties absent from the regular case: degrees fluctuate, long induced paths may appear, and branches can terminate before reaching the boundary. As a result, the effect of the monochromatic boundary at the leaves is much less uniform. Our main result shows near-linear mixing for the Glauber dynamics on Poisson trees with monochromatic boundary conditions. This extends the corresponding regular-tree results of Martinelli, Sinclair, and Weitz (SODA 2004) and of Blanca, Chen, Stefankovič, and Vigoda (RANDOM 2021) to the irregular trees arising from sparse random graphs. Our proof introduces an adaptive block decomposition of the tree, built around regions containing large regular subtrees, and combines it with correlation-decay estimates and functional-inequality arguments. We also obtain a near-linear-time approximate sampling
algorithm for the Potts model on $G(n,d/n)$ at all temperatures, speeding up the best previous
algorithm of Galanis, Goldberg, and Smolarova (ICALP 2025). The main new ingredient is a refined analysis of the low-temperature regime, building on the Poisson tree result.
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All authors Zongchen Chen, Andreas Galanis, Leslie Ann Goldberg, Xandru Mifsud, Paulina Smolarova, Xusheng Zhang
Probability · Cross-listed from q-bio.NC
Resource depletion accelerates rate learning but not composition learning in patch foraging
Zachary P. Kilpatrick and Ahmed El Hady
Foraging is a universal animal behavior that has increasingly attracted the interest of both experimentalists and theorists. Most prior models assume an animal knows the distribution of resources in its environment, but this structure must be learned as the animal explores its environment. Foraging can thus be regarded as a hierarchical inference problem. We develop a normative
Bayesian account of an
agent learning a patchy environment while exploiting it, and show that resource depletion shapes the levels of that hierarchy differently. Within a patch, depletion accelerates rate learning, since successive encounters occur at falling rates whose spacing pins down the initial rate. Across patches, composition learning, inferring the fraction of patches that are high yield, is slow, set by the number of patches sampled rather than the time spent in each, and unaffected by depletion once the rates are known. Reward-maximizing and information-seeking strategies therefore diverge, a forager resolving the composition underharvesting rich patches because learning it requires departures, most sharply early in exposure. When a fixed set of patches replenishes between visits, the reward-maximizing policy collapses onto a stable orbit over the high-yield patches, and the replenishment rate sets whether the forager maps the whole environment or locks onto a rich subset. Which departure rule maximizes intake is itself set by how variable the patches are, switching from counting prey to timing the gaps between them once richness varies by more than about a quarter. Learning the environment thus buys significant intake over learning a rule from reward alone, as long as its assumptions about depletion leave room for the truth.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.MG
Optimal MM* bounds for convex bodies
Pierre Bizeul
Let $K\subset\R^n$ be a convex body in isotropic position. We prove the optimal mean-width estimate \[ M^*(K)\leq C\sqrt{n\log n}. \] The main new ingredient is a
geometric inequality relating the Gaussian mean of the support function to its mean under the uniform measure on $K$, obtained through a heat-flow argument. Combined with the Gaussian-log-concave comparison of Eldan and Lehec and the newly available dimension-free bound on the third-moment parameter $\kappa_n$, this yields the result. The boundedness of $\kappa_n$ also makes the mean-norm estimate of Bizeul and Klartag sharp. Combining both estimates yields \[ M(K)M^*(K)\leq C\log n, \] extending Pisier's $MM^*$ estimate to non-symmetric convex bodies and to the isotropic position.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.NT
A sharp almost sure upper bound for partial sums of random multiplicative functions
Benjamin Durkan and Andrew Pearce-Crump
We prove that, for either a Steinhaus random multiplicative function or a Rademacher random multiplicative function $f$, and every $\varepsilon>0$, almost surely $|\sum_{n\le x}f(n)|\ll_{\varepsilon,f}\sqrt{x}(\log\log x)^{1/4+\varepsilon}$. Together with Harper's almost sure lower bound, this determines the sharp logarithmic exponent in both models. This settles Harper's
conjecture on the large fluctuations of random multiplicative functions.
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Probability
Schwarzian Field Theory at High Temperatures
Ilya Losev
In this work we study the high-temperature limit of the Schwarzian Field Theory probability measure. We show that on large scales this limit concentrates on jump processes, while its small-scale behaviour is governed by a process which we call Schwarzian Field Theory on the real line. This Schwarzian Theory on the real line can be viewed as the infinite-volume version of the Schwarzian Field Theory. In addition to showing this local convergence, we also provide a systematic treatment of the Schwarzian Theory on the real line. This includes the calculation of the correlation functions and a corresponding uniqueness
theorem.
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Probability
The Zombie Infection Model
Stein Andreas Bethuelsen, Erik Broman and Samuel Modée
We study a variant of the
stochastic SIR model on graphs that has previously been introduced in the physics literature for modelling zombie outbreaks and here referred to as the Zombie Infection Model (ZIM). In this model, initially each node of a graph is either susceptible, infected or removed. As in the SIR model, a susceptible node becomes infected at rate $\lambda$ times the number of its infected neighbours. Moreover, in the ZIM, an infected node is removed at rate $1$ times the number of its susceptible neighbours. This process exhibits rich and sometimes counterintuitive behaviour. By combining various coupling techniques, we provide a rigorous mathematical analysis of the model, focusing on monotonicity properties and the probability of the infection spreading indefinitely. One of our main results is that this probability is monotone with respect to an increase of $\lambda$ for the process on trees, but that there are graphs of bounded degree for which it is continuous and yet not monotone. We also establish bounds on this probability for the process on general graphs, and derive more precise results for complete graphs, regular trees, and the $d$-dimensional integer
lattice.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.FA
Poisson operator on the interacting Fock space associated with a discrete-time quantum walk
Daiju Funakawa, Yuki Ueda and Kazuyuki Wada
We study the Poisson operator on the interacting Fock space associated with a discrete-time
quantum walk, which we call the QW-Poisson operator. First, we investigate the spectral properties of the QW-Poisson distribution. In particular, we establish a relation between the spectral distributions of the Poisson operator and the reversed Poisson operator on a general interacting Fock space via a size-biased transform. Next, we study the edge behavior of the density of the QW-Poisson distribution. We show that a phase transition occurs at the left endpoint of the support: depending on the parameter, the density either decays to $0$ or blows up to $+\infty$. Moreover, this phase transition coincides with the transition in the number of atoms of the QW-Poisson distribution, equivalently, in the point spectrum of the QW-Poisson operator, and with whether $0$ belongs to the spectrum of the QW-Poisson operator. Finally, we study a connection between the interacting Fock space associated with a discrete-time
quantum walk and noncommutative probability theory. More precisely, we compute the moment-generating function and moments of the QW-Poisson operator, and obtain a limit
theorem for the Konno distribution via a Poisson approximation. We also investigate the Boolean self-decomposability of the Konno distribution and the shifted reversed QW-Poisson distribution.
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Probability
Large deviations for the maximum of the generalized TAP free energy
Jeanne Boursier
We study large deviations of the maximum of the generalized TAP free energy introduced by Chen, Panchenko, and Subag for the Ising mixed $p$-
spin model. The upper bound uses a new Guerra-type interpolation that may also be useful for other
spin-glass models. The lower bound follows the strategy of Huang and Sellke. We show that supersymmetric critical points have no competitor at positive overlap on their own sphere. As such, they form a spherical code, which turns the annealed count into a lower bound on the probability of existence. This identifies the supersymmetric formula proposed by physicists with the large-deviation exponent for the existence of TAP maxima, rather than with the ordinary annealed complexity. The resulting rate function is the Legendre transform of a constrained Parisi value in the bottom-atom mass. The same argument, iterated in bands above TAP ancestors, would give a constructive proof of the Parisi formula for the Ising model under a technical strict stability assumption.
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Probability
Fractal random variables defined by probability distributions of digits of their $G_2$-representation having two bases with different signs
M. Pratsiovytyi, O. Baranovskyi, I. Lysenko et al. (+1 more)
In this paper, we study distributions of two random variables \begin{gather*} \tau = \tau_1 g_{1-\tau_1} + \sum_{k=2}^\infty \tau_k g_{1-\tau_k} \prod_{i=1}^{k-1} g_{\tau_i} \equiv \Delta^{G_2}_{\tau_1\tau_2...\tau_n...}, \xi = \xi_1 g_{1-\xi_1} + \sum_{k=2}^\infty \xi_k g_{1-\xi_k} \prod_{i=1}^{k-1} g_{\xi_i} \equiv \Delta^{G_2}_{\xi_1\xi_2...\xi_n...}, \end{gather*} where $g_0$ is a given number belonging to interval $[\frac{1}{2}; 1)$, $g_1\equiv g_0 - 1$, $(\tau_n)$ and $(\xi_n)$ are sequences of random variables taking the values $0$ and $1$, and $(\tau_n)$ is a sequence of random variables that form a Markov chain with positive initial probabilities $p_{0}$, $p_{1}$ and
matrix of transition probabilities $ \begin{pmatrix} p_{00} & p_{01} p_{10} & p_{11} \end{pmatrix},$ $(\xi_n)$ is a sequence of independent random variables taking the specified values with probabilities $p_{0n}$ and $p_{1n}$, respectively ($p_{0n}+p_{1n}=1$). We study structural, spectral, and fractal properties of distributions of $\tau$ and $\xi$. For random variable $\tau$, point spectrum (the set of atoms) and continuous spectrum (minimal closed support) of its distribution are studied exhaustively. We prove a
theorem on the Lebesgue purity of distribution of random variable $\xi$ (an analog of the Jessen–Wintner
theorem), i.e., conditions for the distribution to belong to one of the types: pure discrete, pure absolutely continuous, and pure singular.
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All authors M. Pratsiovytyi, O. Baranovskyi, I. Lysenko, S. Ratushniak
Probability · Cross-listed from eess.SY
Fleming-Viot Selection of the Yaglom Limit for Age-Structured Bellman-Harris Processes, with Application to Livestock Epidemic Surveillance
Ouerdia Arezki, Paul-Marie Grollemund and Ali Zemouche
In this paper, we construct a Fleming-Viot particle system for a class of subcritical Bellman-Harris processes. We prove that it selects the Yaglom limit at a
polynomial rate in the number of particles. Since lifetimes are non-exponential, the population size is not Markov, and the analysis must therefore be carried out on the space of age configurations. In this setting, the Lyapunov functions used for Galton-Watson processes are no longer norm-like. Nevertheless, we establish a Yaglom
theorem that strengthens the classical result: the conditional laws converge in total variation at an exponential rate, with decay rate given by the Malthusian parameter. We also prove that the drift condition, which links the hazard rate to the offspring law, is necessary within a natural class of Lyapunov functions, showing that it is a feature of the measure-valued lift rather than a defect of the estimates. Finally, we illustrate the
estimator through an application to livestock epidemic surveillance, where the Yaglom limit is the null distribution of a change-detection test.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cs.IT
The Entropic Sum-Product Phenomenon
Rupert Li
Let $X,X'$ be independent and identically distributed discrete real-valued random variables of finite Shannon
entropy, and write $H(X)$ for the Shannon
entropy of $X$. We prove that \[ \max\{H(X+X'),\,H(XX')\} \ge \frac87 H(X)-O(\log H(X)). \] This is the entropic analog of the celebrated sum-product phenomenon, and answers a question of Goh, which simply asked for a coefficient strictly larger than 1. An example by the author, Gavalakis, and Kontoyiannis showed the coefficient cannot exceed $\frac43$. Previous work by Gavalakis, Goh, and Kontoyiannis was able to prove a result of a weaker form, which could not translate to a coefficient strictly larger than 1 because of examples where the min-
entropy is significantly smaller than the Shannon
entropy. By splitting the distribution of $X$ into uniform pieces, which costs $O(\log H(X))$
entropy, we obviate this issue, establishing a coefficient of $\frac{10}{9}$. We augment this to $\frac87$ by adapting the work of Solymosi, which established the combinatorial sum-product phenomenon with coefficient $\frac43$ by bounding the multiplicative energy, to the
entropy setting, again via a uniformization technique.
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Probability
Entropic Symmetrization Resistance
Mokshay Madiman and Emma Pollard
An asymmetric random variable $X$ in the reals is said to be variance symmetrization resistant if every independent random variable $Y$ in the reals that produces a symmetric sum $X+Y$ has a greater variance than that of $X$. Asymmetric Bernoulli random variables were shown to be variance symmetrization resistant by Kagan, Mallows, Shepp, Vanderbei, and Vardi (1999); Pal (2008) gave a proof using
stochastic calculus. We introduce the notion of entropic symmetrization resistance on locally compact groups– this means that the
entropy of any independent symmetrizer $Y$ must exceed that of $X$. We show that asymmetric Bernoulli random variables exhibit entropic symmetrization resistance, and show a multidimensional generalization. We also explore basic aspects of the entropic symmetrization resistance problem in compact groups. In particular, we show that any distribution on a finite group that is entropic symmetrization resistant must lie on the boundary of the probability simplex, and describe precisely the class of all entropic symmetrization resistant distributions on $\mathbb{Z}_3$ and $\mathbb{Z}_4$.
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