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Physics Astrophysics Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

astro-ph.EP Watch Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Monday 21 September

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Transit timing variation

Luca Borsato

The transit timing variation (TTV) method is a key approach to the confirmation, detection, and characterisation of exoplanetary systems. This review discusses the detection of TTVs from transit observations and the origins of TTVs, mainly due to gravitational interactions with perturbing planets, whether transiting or not. Additionally, this work details methodologies for deriving planetary parameters, employing quasi-global and local optimisation algorithms within a Bayesian framework. By analysing TTVs, planetary orbital parameters and dynamical properties can be inferred, providing valuable insights into system formation and evolution. The role of resonances and stability in shaping these systems is reviewed, along with sensitivity biases that influence mass determination. Comparative analyses highlight the unique demographic contributions of TTV systems. TTVs offer a window into the dynamical and physical properties of planetary systems, advancing our understanding of their diversity and stability.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from astro-ph.IM

Premature re-entry of the FACSAT-2 nanosatellite: orbital decay and attribution to the maximum of solar cycle 25

Santiago Vargas Dominguez, Mara Valentina Angel and Brayan Nicolas Buitrago

FACSAT-2 Chiribiquete, the second satellite of the Colombian Aerospace Force and the first South American nanosatellite mission dedicated to greenhouse gases, re-entered on 27 October 2025, 926 days after its deployment into a Sun-synchronous orbit, against a declared service life of at least five years and an estimated orbital lifetime of fifteen. The orbital evolution was built from the epochs of the TLEs (two-line elements) of NORAD ID 56205. We reconstruct its decay using its 3696 orbital elements, the solar and geomagnetic indices from the OMNI2 database, and NRLMSISE-00 densities sampled along the orbit. Inverting the drag yields a ballistic coefficient of 72.3 kg/m2 (6% statistical, 20% systematic), equivalent to an effective area of 0.047 m2, consistent with the declared geometry. With it, the model reproduces the trajectory with a root-mean-square error of 7.4 km and, calibrated on 2023-2024 alone, the re-entry with a 28-day out-of-sample error. F10.7 averaged 170.8 sfu over the mission, against the 139 sfu of the environmental scenario derived from the official 2019 forecast, which lengthens the orbital lifetime by x1.52; two co-launched CubeSats give x1.50 and x1.57, a consistency check across objects rather than independent evidence. Imposing quiet geomagnetic conditions returns 102 days, 22% of the shortening, with strong sensitivity to the adopted threshold; a superposed-epoch analysis over 149 storms gives a median drag enhancement of x1.92 for the intense events. We discuss the consequences for the design of FACSAT-3 and for the public communication of a mission's expected lifetime.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

How dust particles orbiting white dwarfs can reveal undetected co-orbiting exoplanets I. Exoplanet on a circular orbit

Kyriaki I. Antoniadou and Dimitri Veras

Abridged. Mounting observations of transiting dusty debris orbiting WDs display complex signatures that often feature orbital period drifts. The asteroid or planet progenitor of this debris might still be partly intact on a near-circular orbit that is inclined or coplanar, with a period that is similar to that of the dust. Alternatively, the debris could persist concurrently with other intact asteroids or planets that had tidally circularised around the WD at a later time, but still remain directly unobservable. We sought to first improve the identification of this detectability threshold by expanding our previous investigation of the WD-secondary-dust co-orbital circular restricted three-body problem (CRTBP) to higher secondary masses corresponding to Ceres, Mercury, Earth, and Neptune. Next, we continued to explore the link between the analytic and numerical characterisations of the CRTBP. First, we computed families of periodic orbits in the 1/1 mean-motion-resonance (MMR) in both the planar and spatial CRTBP cases, where the dust is on an arbitrarily eccentric orbit. Second, we generated global phase space portraits. Third, we determined observational links with debris located in very close proximity to WDs via N-body simulations. For each method we applied, we report a novel set of results. These include 3 newly discovered bifurcation points, $B_T^4, B_{cs}^4$, and $B_{cs}^5$, 2 branches of asymmetric periodic orbits, called $A_2$ and $A_3$, at high dust eccentricity regime in the 2D-CRTBP, and 2 families of symmetric orbits in the 3D-CRTBP. The maps reveal stability domains as a function of the dust's eccentricity, argument of pericentre, and slight semi-major axis deviations from the 1/1 MMR. The N-body simulations reveal that over 10 yr, mass analogues of Mercury, Earth, and Neptune generate orbital period deviations in the dust of, respectively, 1-10 s, 10-100 s, and over 100 s.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Impact of accretion variability on the CO emission of a disk around a very-low-mass star with JWST

C. Bergez-Casalou, B. Tabone, Y. Aoyama et al. (+14 more)

Studying the structure of very-low-mass stars ($M_\star<0.2M_\odot$) protoplanetary disk is crucial to understand the formation of Earth-like planets. In this paper, we characterize the innermost regions of the disk around a known very-low-mass star, 2MASS J16053215-1933159 (J1605 hereafter), by analyzing new JWST/NIRSpec observations taken in 2024, 2 years after a first observation with JWST/MIRI. We find that between the two epochs (2022 & 2024), the CO flux is reduced by a factor $\sim 3$, the flux of the HI 10-6 line seen by both NIRSpec and MIRI is reduced by a factor $\sim13$, and the total continuum density flux is reduced by $\sim 15 \%$. The accretion rate derived from individual HI lines is consistent with a decrease of a factor $\sim13$ in 2 years. After correcting the spectrum from the CO absorption present in J1605 stellar photosphere, we find that the decrease of the disk's CO emission is consistent with a CO gas of same column density and temperature at each epoch, but originating from a smaller emitting area when the accretion rate is low. While warm hydrocarbons ($\simeq 500~$K) are detected with MIRI-MRS with extremely high column densities of $\rm C_2H_2$, no hydrocarbons features are seen with NIRSpec. We propose that non-LTE effects quench the near-IR emission of hydrocarbons in the warm reservoir. The variation of the accretion luminosity of J1605 correlates with the variation of its fundamental CO luminosity in a similar way as in T-Tauri stars, supporting the idea that very-low-mass stars could be seen as scaled-down versions of T-Tauri stars. The detection of the emission of the fundamental band of CO in disks around cold objects is challenging because of the presence of CO absorption in their photosphere. Future observations (e.g., with ELT/METIS) looking for such emission will require robust ways to constrain the photosphere emission.
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All authors C. Bergez-Casalou, B. Tabone, Y. Aoyama, G. Herczeg, A. Caratti o Garatti, E. Habart, E. F. van Dishoeck, I. Chemerynska, T. Henning, S. L. Grant, M. Guedel, A. M. Arabhavi, J. Kanwar, G. Olofsson, G. Perotti, L. Tychoniec, L. B. F. M. Waters

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Feasibility of the Phobos 1 Hypothesis for Dark Comet 1998 KY$_{26}$

Adam Hibberd, Adam Crowl and Abraham Loeb

The asteroid 1998 KY$_{26}$ has been the subject of thorough observation, both optical and radar, from shortly following its discovery on 28 May 1998, through 2 further close apparitions in 2020 and 2024. This has previously allowed an accurate characterization of the object, including an unusually rapid spin-rate with period 5.3516 $\pm$ 0.0001 minutes, a diameter of 11 $\pm$ 2 m, and a high albedo of $\sim{0.52}$. Furthermore, the presence of significant nongravitational accelerations (NGAs), with no detectable shedding of gas or dust, has stimulated the 'dark comet' categorization, with JAXA repurposing their Hayabusa2$\sharp$ spacecraft to rendezvous with the object in 2031. We follow-up the astrodynamical evidence pointing to the possibility this may actually be the lost Soviet Phobos 1 probe, and analyse various photometry and astrometry associated with 1998 KY$_{26}$ to further investigate the feasibility of this hypothesis. We find a first order approximation of the Phobos 1 spacecraft provides compelling agreement to 8 light curves of the object and further that modelling NGAs as solar radiation pressure (SRP) on a cylinder or solar panels provide significant reductions in residual of $\sim{11} \%$ with respect to the 260 astrometric and radar measurements. Although an investigation of this kind cannot be conclusive, nevertheless the results here add strong weight to the Phobos 1 hypothesis, and we find no clear contradictory evidence. The spin pole in Ecliptic J2000 coordinates, calculated from photometry based on the Phobos 1 assumption is $(\lambda,\beta)=({151^{+1}_{-2}}^{\circ},{+11^{+12}_{- 3}}^{\circ})$ , where the quoted ranges represent approximate 68.3% confidence levels.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Satellite Survival through Gas Redistribution in a Low-viscosity Disk

Ignacio Mosqueira

We investigate satellite survival through gas redistribution in a dense circumplanetary disk with a low dimensionless viscosity parameter $\alpha \sim 10^{-6}$. The model combines modal Lindblad excitation, launch-dependent shock deposition, 3D effects, and an instantaneous Rayleigh adjustment that conserves angular momentum and suppresses sharp density gradients. An isolated Ganymede-mass satellite depletes the disk outside its orbit and stalls under a calibrated three-dimensional Lindblad torque. This behavior is consistent with the non-feedback branch of Rafikov's stalling criterion. The inward migration stalls near 15 Jupiter radii ($R_J$) when the gas depletion exterior to the satellite's orbit reduces the outer torque by the amount required to balance the torque of the undepleted inner disk, even when we adopt a transport prescription that begins smoothing density gradients halfway to Rayleigh marginality. Likewise, two Callisto masses form an extended depleted region and stall in nearly steady orbits before a late close encounter; however, a self-consistent disk response to satellite eccentricity remains to be modeled. A simulation of a Ganymede-mass satellite adds a specified source of unsaturated local angular momentum deposition by buoyancy torques, reducing the late radial oscillations indirectly caused by non-local shock deposition. Lastly, we redistribute gas while conserving angular momentum to proactively inhibit Rossby-wave unstable pressure bumps at the gap edges. We find that this approach preserves gap clearing and strong migration suppression for Ganymede and the two Callisto masses. In the pressure-adjusted run, the two Callisto masses are captured in a 7:5 resonance and retain eccentricities below 0.06.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Regime transitions of dynamos driven by fingering double-diffusive convection

Wei Fan and YufengLin

Long-term cooling of planetary interiors is expected to progressively establish thermally stable stratification in the liquid outer core, yet its influence on dynamo action remains incompletely understood. Here we present three-dimensional numerical simulations of fingering double-diffusive convection-driven dynamos to investigate how progressively strengthening thermally stable stratification, modifies compositional convection driven flows and dynamos. Our results show that dynamo evolution is governed by a competition between Lorentz-force regulation and stratification-induced flow reorganisation. When stratification is weak, the system remains in a strong-field regime characterised by a relatively stable, dipole-dominated magnetic field, despite reduced flow intensity. As thermally stable stratification strengthens, systematic changes in flow morphology emerge, including the development of prograde equatorial zonal flows. Once a critical stratification strength is exceeded, flow reorganisation becomes dominant, leading to an abrupt transition to a weak-field dynamo accompanied by a sharp decline in magnetic energy. In the weak-field regime, magnetic field intensity exhibits enhanced temporal variability and continues to decay as stratification further strengthens, eventually resulting in dynamo cessation even when compositional buoyancy persists. These results indicate that thermally stable stratification may play an important role in regulating planetary dynamos and provide new insight into the long-term magnetic evolution of terrestrial planets.
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Sunday 20 September

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from astro-ph.HE

Eccentricity and Inclination Excitation of Stellar Orbits around merging Black-Hole Binaries

Hao Gao and Hanlun Lei

Identifying the formation channels of merging compact-object binaries remains a fundamental challenge in gravitational-wave (GW) astrophysics. Here, we formulate a generalized framework incorporating both third-body perturbations and post-Newtonian effects to investigate the resonance-driven excitation of eccentricity and/or inclination for stellar orbits around merging black-hole binaries (BHBs). We show that at the quadrupole level, inclination excitation is driven by adiabatic capture into a quadrupole-order resonance, with subsequent resonance escape governed by the conservation of phase-space area. Furthermore, in the coplanar octupole regime, an apsidal precession resonance triggers robust eccentricity growth, where the capture probability depends on the initial conditions. For spatial octupole configurations, we reveal a distinct two-stage evolutionary pathway: the quadrupole-order resonance first excites the orbital inclination, followed by subsequent eccentricity growth driven by the inverse von Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai (ZLK) resonance. Our results indicate that these resonance-driven dynamics could imprint observable kinematic signatures on surrounding stellar populations, thereby offering a novel indirect probe for merging BHBs.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from astro-ph.SR

Hydrogen Line Emission in Accreting Low-Mass Objects I: Spectral Analysis of Shock-Origin Narrow Component

Yuhiko Aoyama, Jun Hashimoto, Gabriel-Dominique Marleau et al. (+5 more)

Hydrogen lines are widely used as tracers of stellar and planetary accretion. In classical T~Tauri stars, hydrogen lines are usually interpreted as arising from magnetospheric accretion columns, whereas in lower-mass counterparts (subsolar-mass objects including brown dwarfs and gas giant planets), the post-accretion-shock region can directly emit a substantial fraction of the hydrogen-line luminosity. However, the boundary between non-shock-dominated and shock-dominated cases has remained unclear. In this study, we compare hydrogen-line profiles predicted by the shock emission model with 254 observations of 164 low-mass accreting objects ($\lesssim 0.5\,M_\odot$) in the VLT/X-Shooter archive. We simultaneously fit seven hydrogen lines (H$\beta$, H$\gamma$, H6, H8, H9, Pa$\beta$, and Br$\gamma$), testing both line profiles and flux ratios within a single framework, and introduce a phenomenological broad-component-subtracted fit for cases with mixed non-shock and shock contributions. We find that shock emission dominates the hydrogen-line emission at object masses $M\lesssim0.05\,M_\odot$ or free-fall velocities $v_\mathrm{ff}<175\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$, but becomes minor at $M \gtrsim 0.2\,M_\odot$. The inferred flow velocities at the shock front are often significantly smaller than the free-fall velocity from infinity, implying smaller truncation radii and surface dipole magnetic field strengths of sub-kG. The accretion luminosities inferred from the shock-emission fitting are systematically larger than literature values, often by orders of magnitude, likely because conventional estimates neglect line emission that is non-negligible in low-mass objects. We also confirm that H$\alpha$ is more susceptible than the other hydrogen lines to additional non-shock components.
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All authors Yuhiko Aoyama, Jun Hashimoto, Gabriel-Dominique Marleau, Carlo F. Manara, Juan Manuel Alcalá, Gregory Herczeg, Camille Bergez-Casalou, Masahiro Ikoma

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from physics.space-ph

Predicting low-latitude ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) over the Indian sector under variable space weather conditions using solar wind parameters

Sumanjit Chakraborty, Gopi K. Seemala and A. P. Dimri

Accurate prediction of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) during geomagnetically disturbed conditions remains challenging, particularly when empirical models perform poorly during storms and neural network (NN) approaches rely explicitly on geomagnetic indices such as Kp/Ap or Dst/SYM-H. In this study, we develop an NN-based model to predict TEC variations over the Indian longitude sector without incorporating geomagnetic indices as inputs. The model is trained on the full-year (2024) Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) TEC dataset at a 15-minute cadence, together with solar wind parameters: Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) $B_z$, velocity ($V_{sw}$), and density ($N_p$), along with the F10.7 cm solar radio flux. Seasonal and diurnal variability are represented using sinusoidal transformations of Day of Year (DOY) and hour of day (HOD). An optimized architecture with 96 hidden neurons yields strong training performance ($R^2$ $\sim$ 0.96, RMSE $\sim$ 5.4, and MAE $\sim$ 3.8 TECU). Independent predictions for the year 2025 demonstrate robust generalization under both quiet and geomagnetically active conditions. Quiet-time residuals are generally confined within $\pm$10 TECU, while during moderate and strong storm-time conditions, the model maintains comparable error bounds across most of the Indian region, despite not being trained on geomagnetic indices. The results indicate that solar wind parameters, combined with the F10.7 solar flux and cyclical temporal encoding, contain sufficient information to reproduce geomagnetic storm-time TEC variability. This study therefore demonstrates the applicability of the proposed approach for regional TEC prediction and ionospheric nowcasting, with potential applications in GNSS positioning, satellite navigation, radio communication systems, and the future development of operational ionospheric forecasting tools.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from physics.space-ph

Interhemispheric differences in field-aligned currents, ground magnetic perturbations, and TEC during the geomagnetic storms of May and October 2024

Sumanjit Chakraborty and Gopi K. Seemala

This study investigates storm-to-storm variability and hemispheric differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere (MI) coupling during the extreme (G5) geomagnetic storm of May 10-11 and the severe (G4) storm of October 10-11, 2024. Global field-aligned current (FAC) patterns derived from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Dynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE), together with conjugate observations from ground-based magnetometers within the SuperMAG network and Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived total electron content (TEC), are analyzed to examine high-latitude electrodynamic and ionospheric responses in both hemispheres. The May event exhibits broad and relatively organized Region 1/Region 2 FAC systems encircling the polar caps across multiple local time sectors, accompanied by intervals of correspondence in conjugate magnetic perturbations and structured TEC enhancements with temporal offsets between hemispheres. In contrast, the October event shows more localized, asymmetric, and uneven FAC morphology with pronounced hemispheric and dawn-dusk asymmetries, together with greater divergence in conjugate magnetic responses and spatially heterogeneous TEC variability. These differences are consistent with enhanced mesoscale variability and asymmetric current closure under storm-time conditions. Overall, the results highlight that even under similarly strong solar wind driving, the coupled MI system can exhibit substantially different spatial organization and interhemispheric coupling, reflecting the combined influence of FAC morphology, ionospheric conductance, and local electrodynamic conditions.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Designing 3D transfers: application to Earth-Moon

Allan Kardec de Almeida Junior, Timothée Vaillant, João P.F. Agostinho et al. (+2 more)

Three dimensional Earth-Moon transfers usually consume more fuel than planar ones, but are needed depending on the latitude of the launch site and the desired inclination of the final lunar orbit. A systematic search of the optimal 3D transfers represents a true challenge due the dimension of the parameter set to span. In this paper, we propose a new method to design 3D transfers using a tangential velocity constraint for the burns, modeled using the overdetermined constraints technique based on the Theory of Functional Connections for an optimal search of solutions in a numerically efficient way. The developed method is applied here for a systematic study of optimal 3D Earth-Moon transfers, but could be used to design any type of 3D maneuvers.
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All authors Allan Kardec de Almeida Junior, Timothée Vaillant, João P.F. Agostinho, Antonio F.B.A. Prado, Leonardo B. T. Santos

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Rosetta Earth Flyby Anomaly Revisited: Assessing Physical Contributions through Orbital Dynamics Analysis

Tobias Hoffmann and Frank Budnik

Background: During the navigation of Rosetta's first Earth flyby in 2005, a small yet unexplained asymptotic velocity increase was detected in the departing leg, necessitating inserting an artificial prograde delta-V at perigee in the orbit determination. Similar instances of this phenomenon have been observed in several missions. However, subsequent Rosetta Earth flybys did not exhibit this effect. Despite numerous investigations of the - so called Earth flyby anomaly - over the last decades, the underlying cause remains unresolved. Idea: To address the problem, we perform an Orbit Determination using ESOC's new system for Deep Space orbit determination, utilising the original radiometric tracking data and spacecraft model. This approach enables the incorporation of additional physical effects in the flight trajectory, with the aim of identifying the root cause of the anomaly. Results: We successfully reproduced the anomaly using the new orbit determination software. Subsequent analysis ruled out explanations involving Earth ephemeris errors, gravitational field modelling, relativistic contributions, and propagator configurations. Additional dynamical variations, such as the solar radiation pressure or albedo radiation, were evaluated but found insufficient to account for the observed discrepancy. Outlook: During investigations of Earth's albedo effect, a possible explanation for an artificial velocity increase was identified. Albedo-induced illumination on thermally sensitive spacecraft surfaces could have triggered outgassing, consistent in direction and magnitude with documented outgassing events during Rosetta's cruise phase. A detailed attitude analysis further strengthens this theory and provides conclusive results, also in comparison to Rosetta's other Earth flybys.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from physics.plasm-ph

Plasma localization of charged debris

Bikramjit Joardar and Madhurjya P. Bora

We investigate whether the plasma disturbances generated by a charged debris object can be used to infer its position without directly sampling the object or its immediate sheath. A one-dimensional open-boundary electrostatic particle-in-cell (PIC) framework is used to model a continuously flowing electron-ion plasma containing an initially uncharged debris object. The debris charges self-consistently and produces an ion-ion counter-streaming instability (IICSI), which is sustained and reaches a statistically stationary state. A matching simulation without debris provides a controlled background against which debris-induced changes in different plasma fields are identified. The precursor and wake are examined through their spatial extent, fluctuation power, and frequency–wavenumber spectra. Weak-form sparse regression is then used as a supporting tool to recover reduced fluid and kinetic residuals and to learn an empirical relation connecting the precursor and wake disturbance envelopes to the equilibrium plasma flow, debris charge, and distance from the source. The predictive capability is examined by successively treating each simulation as an independent case. For each evaluation, the model is constructed from the remaining simulations, while the excluded simulation is used only to infer the debris position from its plasma response. For the idealized cold-ion regime considered here, the procedure successfully localizes the debris in transonic and supersonic flows, whereas the subsonic cases remain unresolved. These results demonstrate that debris-induced plasma disturbances possess a learnable spatial structure and provide a proof-of-principle route toward future remote localization using more realistic multidimensional models; they do not constitute an operational debris-detection scheme.
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Saturday 19 September

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Marginalized planet-to-star radius ratio posteriors for low-SNR transiting planets via dimensionality reduction

Oryna Ivashtenko and Barak Zackay

Occurrence rate estimates of small long-period planets rely on the radii of low signal-to-noise ratio transit candidates whose posteriors should be propagated into the population inference. These posteriors should include the error budget from all latent parameters and account for the effects of the correlated noise. Full Markov chain Monte Carlo fits with Gaussian processes take days of runtime per target, and provide information on latent parameters that will be marginalized over anyway. We present a method that computes the marginalized posterior of the planet-to-star radius ratio while sampling only a lower-dimensional effective parameter space. The 11-dimensional problem reduces to a 4-dimensional one, while the posterior retains the uncertainty budget of all the nuisance parameters, including eccentric orbits, stellar parameters, and limb darkening. The method operates on whitened light curves, mitigating biases due to correlated noise. We show that the posteriors are calibrated on simulated systems: the true radii have uniformly distributed p-values. Applied to 419 faint long-period Kepler Objects of Interest, the method yields radius ratios broadly consistent with the KOI table, although their differences exceed those expected from the reported uncertainties.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Searching for Embedded Protoplanets with the Keck/NIRC2 Vortex Coronagraph: Confirmation of a Core-accretion Planet in the Narrow Gap of the Elias 2-24 Disk

Andrea Bernardi, Alice Zurlo, Lucas A. Cieza et al. (+8 more)

We present high-contrast imaging observations of seven stars obtained with the Keck/NIRC2 vortex coronagraph between 2018 May and June in the $L'$ and $M_s$ bands. All targets host protoplanetary disks with substructures such as gaps and cavities, potentially tracing ongoing planet formation. Our aim is to assess whether these embedded planets can be directly detected. We reduced the observations with a custom pipeline based on the VIP Python package. Postprocessed images were obtained using angular differential imaging and reference differential imaging combined with principal component analysis. Finally, 5$\sigma$ contrast curves and detection limits were derived for all targets. We confirm the planetary candidate around Elias 2-24, previously proposed in the literature, at a separation of 394$\pm$31 mas (54.9$\pm4$.3 au) and a position angle of 298.8$\pm$3.2$^\circ$, within the narrow gap of the protoplanetary disk. Comparing the derived photometry with 1 Myr isochrones, we infer a mass between 1.9 and 4.0 Jupiter masses for Elias 2-24 b, without considering accretion effects, in agreement with estimates considering the properties of the gap and planet-disk interactions. For all the systems in the survey, the 5$\sigma$ detection limits reach sensitivities down to 1-11 Jupiter masses at separations $\gtrsim$0.25". Since Elias 2-24 b (age $\lesssim$1 Myr) is the youngest exoplanet discovered to date, its confirmation has important implications for planet formation timescales and the origin of the gaps observed in very young disks.
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All authors Andrea Bernardi, Alice Zurlo, Lucas A. Cieza, Garreth Ruane, Valentin Christiaens, Anuroop Dasgupta, Greta Guidi, Dimitri Mawet, Dino Mesa, Sebastián Pérez, Jonathan P. Williams

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Super-Earth Interiors Shrink by About 10% as They Crystallise

Tim Lichtenberg, Mara Attia, Harrison Nicholls et al. (+26 more)

Super-Earth exoplanets are among the most abundant planets known, yet their bulk densities leave the interior state degenerate. The static structure models used to interpret them, and the interior retrievals built on them, typically describe the cold, solidified end state of an evolution that begins hot and molten. During this magma ocean stage the interior, the outgassed atmosphere, and the surface co-evolve and set the long-term climate and geophysics of super-Earths. We develop and validate a fully coupled model for the structural and thermal evolution of super-Earth exoplanets within the PROTEUS framework, including new and upgraded models of the interior structure, mantle energetics, and volatile outgassing. In volatile-poor super-Earths of 1 to 10 Earth masses, the silicate interior contracts by about 10 % of its molten radius through cooling and crystallisation, nearly independent of planet mass and driven by the thinning silicate shell alone. The solidified radius is set by planetary mass and core fraction, insensitive to the host star, irradiation, and initial thermal state. In contrast, volatile-rich super-Earths at and above about 5 Earth masses may not solidify: their thick outgassed atmospheres throttle the surface heat loss until the interior settles into a deep magma ocean, keeping the planet inflated and limiting the contraction to about half its volatile-poor value. Mantle contraction alone thus shapes the low-mass exoplanet transit population, motivating joint interpretation of atmospheric and geophysical signatures in upcoming exoplanet surveys.
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All authors Tim Lichtenberg, Mara Attia, Harrison Nicholls, Mariana Sastre, Dan J. Bower, Karen Stuitje, Flavia C. Pascal, Laurent Soucasse, Daniel Apai, Patrick Bos, Robb Calder, Lorenzo Cesario, Lisa Dang, Emeline Decocq, Marijn van Dijk, Mohammad Farhat, Kaustubh Hakim, Tadahiro Kimura, Imre Kisvárdai, Sebastiaan Krijt, Yamila Miguel, Ioannis Panagiotou, Emma Postolec, Martin Schlecker, Sara Seager, Anat Shahar, Oliver Shorttle, Paolo A. Sossi, Wim van Westrenen

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Optical Constants of Photochemical Haze Analogs in N2-CH4-CO Atmospheres from 0.4 to 28.6 {\mu}m

Zhengbo Yang, Chao He, Haixin Li et al. (+4 more)

Photochemical hazes play an important role in shaping the spectra and radiative balance of N2-dominated planetary atmospheres. We present newly acquired FTIR and retrieved optical constants (N=n+ik) of laboratory-generated haze analogs from N2/CH4 and N2/CH4/CO gas mixtures under plasma discharge conditions. The retrievals use particle densities newly measured for the CH4-series and previously published particle densities for the CO-series. The experiments systematically explored CH4 concentrations from 0.5% to 10% and CO concentrations from 0% to 5% with fixed 5% CH4. Using measured particle densities together with the Beer-Lambert law and subtractive Kramers-Kronig (SKK) relation, we derived optical constants over the 350-25000 cm-1 (0.4-28.6 {\mu}m) spectral range, with the 0.4-25 {\mu}m results presented in the main text. The infrared spectra reveal prominent absorption features associated with hydrocarbon-, nitrogen-, and oxygen-bearing functional groups. Increasing CH4 abundance enhances aliphatic hydrocarbon features and corresponds to decreasing particle density, whereas increasing CO abundance promotes oxygen incorporation, broader mid-infrared absorptions, and higher particle density. The derived k spectra exhibit strong absorptions near ~3 {\mu}m, ~4.6 {\mu}m, and ~6-10 {\mu}m, while the real refractive index n generally ranges from ~1.2 to 1.7. The controlled CH4- and CO-series establish composition-dependent variations in haze optical properties. A benchmark comparison among Titan-, Pluto-, and Triton-like haze analogs then uses these experimentally identified trends to interpret the optical differences among N2-dominated planetary haze compositions. The density and optical constants provide laboratory constraints for atmospheric radiative transfer models and for interpreting planetary and exoplanetary spectra from spacecraft and telescopes.
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All authors Zhengbo Yang, Chao He, Haixin Li, Sai Wang, Xiao'ou Luo, Yu Liu, Sarah M. Hörst

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Characterization of the Compact Multi-planet System TOI-789: Validation of Three Terrestrial Planets, Dynamical Characterization, and Detection of a Fourth Temperate Candidate

Juan F. Pagés Navarrete

We present the validation and dynamical characterization of TOI-789 (TIC 300710077), a compact multi-planet system around an M3 dwarf at 43 pc. Using ~7 yr of TESS photometry (42 sectors), public ground-based follow-up (LCOGT, MEarth), and high-resolution imaging (Gemini/Zorro, SOAR), we statistically validate three terrestrial planets with TRICERATOPS: TOI-789 b (Rp = 1.18 Rearth, P = 5.45 d), c (1.15 Rearth, 8.04 d), and d (1.40 Rearth, 12.97 d), with false-positive and nearby-false-positive probabilities below the validation thresholds once resolved neighbours are excluded using the on-target ground-based photometry. Through an iterative Transit Least Squares search we identify a fourth, previously uncatalogued planet candidate (P = 19.74 d, Rp ~ 0.88 Rearth), the outermost and most temperate member (S = 1.71 Searth, Teq ~ 292 K); its low signal-to-noise ratio precludes formal validation, so we report it as a candidate pending confirmation. A dynamical analysis (SPOCK and N-body integrations) indicates a dynamically cold, near-resonant system, stable only for low eccentricities (e < 0.05), eccentricity rather than mass limiting stability; including the fourth candidate tightens this further. The four objects span the Earth-Venus transition across the Venus zone, two validated planets falling in the temperate regime under the equilibrium-temperature criterion, making the system a potential comparative-planetology laboratory anchored on confirmed planets. The low TSM (~3-5) and moderate host brightness place atmospheric characterization beyond reach. TOI-789 exemplifies the numerically dominant population of compact terrestrial-planet systems around M dwarfs whose characterization is limited by host brightness, for which dynamical characterization offers a complementary route.
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Friday 18 September

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from physics.class-ph

Short-term solar eclipse predictions using Euclidean geometry and dynamical systems

Alin-Doru Aluas, Valerian-Alin Fodor and Virgilius-Aurelian Minuta

We propose a computationally inexpensive algorithm to determine whether an opaque spherical body eclipses a luminous one, using only classical geometrical tools. We apply this method to the Sun-Earth-Moon system and predict solar eclipses, including their type, beginning, and duration, using the three-body problem. For predictions over a one-year period, the resulting errors are in the order of minutes.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

The Science Potential of Characterizing Gas Giant Exoplanets with HWO

Beck Dacus, Jean-Baptiste Ruffio, Quinn Konopacky et al. (+19 more)

With the ability to directly image Earth-like exoplanets and search their atmospheres for biosignatures, the upcoming Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will also collect high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) reflected-light photometry and spectra of nearby gas giant exoplanets. Such high-quality data would allow novel investigations into gas giant atmospheric composition, formation, and kinematic properties, and could enable the detection of exomoons around these planets. We use the EXOSIMS direct imaging mission simulator to model HWO observations of Jupiter-radius gas giants at Earth-like and Jupiter-like instellations around the 164 stars in the ExEP target list. We find that HWO should be able to achieve S/N $\geq$ 5 broadband visible-light detections of gas giants in this instellation range within 5 minutes of integration. 10 hours of R=1000 near-IR spectroscopy with HWO should reveal water, methane, and ammonia absorption features in the atmospheres of Jupiter-like gas giants. HWO time-series photometry should exceed 1% flux precision in one hour for any Earth-instellation gas giants around ExEP stars, and for Jupiter-like gas giants at $d\leq$ 7 parsecs. Time-series light curves at this cadence and precision could, over tens of hours, reveal rotation-induced variability comparable to Jupiter's. Eclipses of Mars-sized exomoons may be detectable in high-cadence light curves of Jupiter sized planets in the habitable zones of ExEP stars at $d\leq$ 10 parsecs. For any hypothetical Earth-like exomoons with oxygen-rich atmospheres at $d\leq$ 7 parsecs from the Solar System, HWO might be able to detect the spectral signature of molecular oxygen amid the parent planet's photon noise in deep ($\sim$400 hour integration) spectroscopic HWO observations at R=1000. Such moons, if they exist, represent additional habitable worlds that HWO could investigate for biosignatures.
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All authors Beck Dacus, Jean-Baptiste Ruffio, Quinn Konopacky, Renyu Hu, Tyler D. Robinson, Mary Anne Limbach, Kielan Hoch, Katelyn Horstman, Bruce Macintosh, Dimitri Mawet, Michael W. McElwain, Bertrand Mennesson, Charley Noecker, Marshall D. Perrin, Laurent Pueyo, Dmitry Savransky, Corey Spohn, Sarah Steiger, Connor Vancil, Ji Wang, Nicole Wolff, Shelley Wright

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Exoplanet Atmosphere Spectral Sensitivity Analysis with PICASO: Jacobians, Linear-Gaussian Approximations, and Information Content

Natasha E. Batalha and Nicholas F. Wogan

Designing observatory and instrument architectures for complex missions like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) requires a rapid and rigorous mathematical framework to evaluate trade-offs across bandpass, spectral resolution, and signal-to-noise regimes. While full Bayesian atmospheric retrievals are the gold standard for atmospheric inference, they are too computationally expensive to explore this full parameter space. Here, we present a sensitivity analysis and retrieval diagnostic toolkit within the open-source code PICASO. The core addition to the code base is a flexible solution for computing finite-difference Jacobian matrices, which provides a local linearization of the forward model. These Jacobian matrices characterize the sensitivity of the spectrum (either reflected, thermal, or transmission) to perturbations in any atmospheric state parameter, such as molecular abundances. Given the Jacobian for a certain reference atmosphere, our toolkit provides a suite of analytic diagnostic quantities under Gaussian assumptions for the prior, likelihood, and posterior. These include Fisher-matrix-based estimates of 1$\sigma$ constraint intervals of atmospheric parameters, averaging kernels, singular-value-decomposition diagnostics for parameter degeneracies, and an information-content metric. We validate the results of our toolkit by comparing them to that of a full Bayesian retrieval of an Earth-like planet with an HWO-like facility. We show that our metrics can provide rapid understanding of model parameter sensitivity and that local linear-Gaussian approximations can diagnose dominant degeneracies seen in retrievals as well as provide first order estimates of posterior probability distributions. Ultimately, this provides the community with a complementary toolkit for optimizing instrument design and conducting spectral sensitivity diagnostics.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Post-perihelion Photometric and Spectroscopic Monitoring of the Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS

Goldy Ahuja, Shashikiran Ganesh, K. Aravind et al. (+12 more)

The third interstellar object, comet 3I/ATLAS, was observed using various Indian telescopes during its post-perihelion evolution. We carried out imaging and spectroscopic observations of the comet at multiple epochs using the 0.5-m, 1.2-m, and 2.5-m telescopes of the Physical Research Laboratory and the 2-m Himalayan Chandra Telescope (HCT) operated by the Indian Institute of Astrophysics. Additionally, time-series photometry was obtained on 7 epochs using the 0.132-m refractor of Cepheid Observatory. The spectroscopic observations of 3I/ATLAS reveal signatures of molecular emission from CN, C$_2$, and C$_3$, as commonly observed in the emission spectra of solar system comets. The production rates and rate ratios indicate that the composition of the 3I/ATLAS transitioned from carbon-depleted (pre-perihelion) to carbon-typical (post-perihelion). The change in carbon composition could be due to exposure of fresh material from subsurface layers near perihelion. We also performed photometric observations to determine broadband colours and the spin period. The measured colours are $B-V=$ 1.03 $\pm$ 0.13 mag, $V-R=$ 0.59 $\pm$ 0.11 mag, $R-I=$ 0.08 $\pm$ 0.04 mag, $g-r=$ 0.52 $\pm$ 0.09 mag, and $r-i=$ 0.13 $\pm$ 0.08 mag. The colours are redder than the Long-Period Comets of the solar system and the Sun in $B-V$ and $V-R$, but near solar in $R-I$. The measured colours remain nearly constant throughout the observing period and are consistent with the reported pre-perihelion values. The colours and the reflectivity gradient match the photometric colours of the `ultrared-material rich' objects in the solar system. The nuclear radius derived from non-gravitational force lies between 0.45 and 0.65 km.
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All authors Goldy Ahuja, Shashikiran Ganesh, K. Aravind, Emmanuel Jehin, Bhavya Ailawadhi, Vikrant K. Agnihotri, B. Arvind, Pallavi Saraf, Alka Singh, Deekshya R. Sarkar, Sunil Chandra, Prithish Halder, Devendra Sahu, T. Sivarani, Anil Bhardwaj

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from astro-ph.SR

An Open Cluster Origin for Most Solar-Type Binaries in the Solar Neighborhood and Implications for Primordial Planet Stability

Anna C. Childs and Aaron M. Geller

We present the first Gaia-calibrated estimate of the contribution of dynamically processed open clusters (OCs) to the nearby solar-type field binary population and investigate the implications for primordial planet stability. We combine Gaia DR3 observations, empirical models of cluster formation and dissolution, and direct N-body simulations to constrain the fraction of field FGK-type binaries within 1 kpc that originated in OCs over the past 5 Gyr. We find that at least ~53% of solar-type field binaries formed in OCs with initial masses > 200 M_Sun, where dynamical processing becomes significant. We quantify the effects of stellar encounters and binary orbital evolution on the stability of both circumbinary and circumstellar planets by deriving empirical prescriptions for circumbinary planet destabilization as a function of binary separation and for the fractional reduction of stable circumstellar coplanar phase space. These results provide a framework for evaluating how OC dynamical evolution may influence the stability of planets in binary systems and therefore contribute to observed exoplanet demographics.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Tectonics on early Earth driven by Earth's changing shape during tidal recession of the Moon

Simon J. Lock

Few fragments of Earth's earliest crust have survived, and so this formative period of our planet's history is shrouded in mystery. To leverage the limited data available, it is important to understand all the processes that could have shaped our young planet. Here, I explore a previously neglected aspect of early-Earth dynamics: rotation. Earth after the Moon-forming impact was rapidly rotating with its rotation rate slowing significantly during the first tens of millions of years after the impact as the Moon tidally receded. Using planetary structure and tidal evolution calculations, I show that the initially distorted structure of Earth would likely have led to significant latitudinal variations in primary crustal thickness. Further, the subsequent changes in Earth's shape in response to its slowing rotation rate could have driven extensive tectonic activity and modulated the response of the crust to other forces. There was extension of the crust in polar regions and convergence in the equatorial regions at rates potentially comparable to those forming the Himalayas today in high-angular momentum scenarios. Depending on the rheology of the earliest crust, such motions could have led to burial of hydrated and weathered surface material, extensive volcanism, and degassing of Earth's interior. Phase changes due to increases in internal pressure could have led to delamination of parts of the crust, producing early mantle heterogeneities. Hydrated secondary melting of the crust and the production of evolved magmas could explain the emergence of a diversity of rock types within tens of millions of years of Earth's formation.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from astro-ph.SR

Multi-Epoch Stability in the Rotational Modulation of the Planetary-Mass Companion Ross 458C

Elena Manjavacas, Jared Bull, Paulo Miles-Paez et al. (+7 more)

Spectroscopic variability is detected in brown dwarfs across all spectral types, suggesting atmospheric patchiness in brown dwarf atmospheres. We present JWST/NIRSpec time series observations of the T8.0 planetary-mass companion Ross 458C. We compared our derived spectral variability and light curve to those obtained using HST/WFC3 observations more than 7.5 yr before and published by Manjavacas et al. (2019). We found that the light curve of Ross 458C is remarkably similar in the two epochs in terms of shape and variability amplitude potentially created by stable weather patterns. We measured a rotational period of 11.57+\-0.09 hr, demonstrating that the previously reported HST/WFC3 period of 6.75+\-1.58 hr is most likely a second-order harmonic produced by an unresolved double-peaked rotational modulation, likely due to the higher uncertainties of the HST/WFC3 light curve and the short time baseline of those observations. We measured the variability amplitude in the white light curve created using only the wavelength range covered by HST/WFC3 (1.10-1.63 micron), obtaining a value of 1.47+\-0.18%, which is consistent with that measured in the HST/WFC3 light curve.
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All authors Elena Manjavacas, Jared Bull, Paulo Miles-Paez, Natalia Oliveros-Gomez, Theodora Karalidi, Ben W. P. Lew, Zhoujian Zhang, Yifan Zhou, Daniel Apai, Xianyu Tan

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Asteroids Impacting the Solar System Planets and the Moon. III. Real Impacts from Known Objects and LSST Discovery Predictions

Qifeng Cheng and Daniel Scolnic

Impact rates predicted using pre-impact source-population models and those inferred from observations disagree by a factor of a few to $\sim200$ across the Solar System planets and the Moon. An exciting opportunity for an additional observational constraint is the discovery of asteroids before impact and their tracking until impact. We evaluate this prospect based on both known objects and forecasts of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). First, we identify impacts from known objects, confirming multiple past cases and predicting two coming impacts: 2015 FK488, a $\sim1.8$ km Centaur whose nominal orbit predicts an impact with Jupiter in $\sim200$ yr, and 2022 KG1, a $<10$ m NEO recently removed from the impact-risk lists but whose nominal trajectory leads to an Earth impact in $\sim260$ yr. Both orbits are poorly constrained. Second, assuming the model-based impact rate, we predict that LSST will discover 7 of the 59 synthetic impactors quantified in our previous analysis. All of the discovered impactors will impact Jupiter, and they have a size range of $\sim200-2000$ m and expected discovery-to-collision lead times of $1.94-257.4$ yr. Two of them are discovered inside Jupiter's Hill sphere, offering rare opportunities to observe the transition from a temporary bound orbit to impact before it happens. If instead we assume the observation-inferred impact rates, LSST will at most discover $\sim20$ future Earth impactors ($>10$ m) and $\sim300$ future Jupiter impactors ($>10$ m), with a wider range on both ends for discovery-to-collision lead times. These results demonstrate that LSST can identify a subset of planetary impactors years to centuries before collision, providing a new observational pathway for testing source-population models and the impact-rate mismatch.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Asteroids Impacting the Solar System Planets and the Moon. II: Comparison with Observational Impact Records

Qifeng Cheng and Daniel Scolnic

Planetary impact rates are difficult to infer from observations alone because impacts are rare, observational records are target-dependent, and converting observed flashes, bolides, and craters to an intrinsic impact rate depends on uncertain selection effects and conversion parameters. Building on the simulations in Paper I, we examine whether observational systematics can explain the order-of-magnitude mismatch between observed and modeled impact rates on Earth, and whether comparable discrepancies extend to other Solar System bodies. We convert 12 observed impact records for Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Jupiter to a common pre-atmospheric impact rate for $D>10$ m, propagate uncertainties through the conversion chain, and compare the resulting rates with the intrinsic rates derived in Paper I. We find discrepancies for Earth (observation-to-model median ratio $2.2-21.0$), the Moon ($3.4-132.1$), Mars ($14.2-118.6$), and Jupiter ($2.6-47.7$), with the dominant source of the discrepancy differing by body. The simulated Jupiter-family comet (JFC) contribution substantially reduces the Earth discrepancy, suggesting that an additional dynamical source may help explain the gap. The lunar records disagree with each other by two orders of magnitude, with the discrepancy dominated by size-extrapolation uncertainties. The Mars mismatch is dominated by crater-to-impactor conversion. The Jupiter comparison depends mainly on uncertainties in the inferred number of bound impactors and in the observational completeness thresholds. Further investigation of this mismatch requires incorporating cometary modeling and tighter constraints on size-extrapolation scaling and improved observational completeness.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

Asteroids Impacting the Solar System Planets and the Moon. I. Collision Rates from N-body Simulations

Qifeng Cheng and Daniel Scolnic

Previous studies have shown a mismatch between the simulated rate of asteroids impacting the Earth and the observed rate, posing an important problem for planetary defense. Extending this analysis to other planets offers a new opportunity to examine minor body populations and impactor models. We present a unified simulation framework that estimates intrinsic $D\gtrsim10$~m impactor rates on the eight planets and the Moon. We construct size-calibrated source populations of Near Earth Objects (NEOs), Main Belt Asteroids (MBAs), Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), Centaurs, and scattering trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), and propagate them with a 300-year $N$-body simulation. To avoid relying on black-box-like collision flags, we identify close encounters and estimate impact rates in two complementary ways: a direct count of realized impactors from object-level minimum-distance calculation and a collision expectation based on population-level impact parameter statistics. We predict over 300 years there will be $6.0^{+3.8}_{-2.7}$ impactors on Venus (all NEOs), $10.0^{+11.3}_{-4.9}$ on Earth (NEOs and JFCs), $\sim$$2981^{+481}_{-469}$ on Jupiter (mainly MBAs and JFCs), $1228^{+2759}_{-1017}$ on Saturn (mainly Centaurs), and none on the remaining planets with the $1\sigma$ upper limits spanning $<1.8$ (inner planets) to $<1\times10^{8}$ (outer planets; weak constraint). Jupiter uniquely receives both fast unbound impactors ($>50\, \mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$) and slower bound ones reaching down to $\sim$$20\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$. In a companion paper, we compare our predictions with observations and test whether the gap extends across the Solar System and whether current telescopes can observe these collisions.
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Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Cross-listed from astro-ph.SR

Searching for Massive Remnant Planetary System Hosts with White Dwarf Gaia XP Spectra

Lou Baya Ould Rouis, J.J. Hermes, Pierre Bergeron et al. (+5 more)

Remnant planetary systems around massive white dwarfs ($M_{\rm WD} > 0.8\,{\rm M}_\odot$) are intrinsically rare and remain poorly characterized. As the evolutionary endpoints of intermediate-mass B- and A-type stars, these white dwarfs provide valuable constraints on the formation and survival of planetary systems around higher-mass progenitors. In the absence of large, dedicated spectroscopic surveys, extremely-low-resolution Gaia XP spectra provide a powerful means of identifying candidate metal-polluted white dwarfs. We obtained follow-up observations with low-resolution optical spectroscopy (R=500-4000) to search primarily for Ca II H & K absorption in massive, metal-polluted white dwarf candidates selected from Gaia XP spectra to increase the sample of massive remnant planetary system hosts among objects with effective temperatures below $\sim15{,}000$ K. We find that Gaia XP spectra recover metal-polluted white dwarfs efficiently, confirming 82$\pm$5% recovery of photospheric metals (59 of 72 targets) in high-confidence candidates of our sample (with classifier probability $P_{\rm DZ} > 0.65$). However, Gaia photometric masses derived from $G$, $G_{BP}$, and $G_{RP}$ broad-band photometry are not sufficient to identify the most massive systems, as reliable mass determinations require detailed metal-enriched atmospheric fits. We present a selection of cool white dwarfs confirmed to be both massive and metal polluted, demonstrating that Gaia XP spectra can substantially expand the sample of white dwarf exoplanet hosts. Our search led to the discovery of a new transiting debris system, SDSS J1624+5404, the 21st published system to date and eighth to show periodic transits.
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All authors Lou Baya Ould Rouis, J.J. Hermes, Pierre Bergeron, Simon Blouin, Stefan Arseneau, Tim Cunningham, Joseph A. Guidry, Ciarra Coston