Papers

Classical chaining controls an indexed stochastic process through a single worst-case bound and can therefore obscure substantial variation across the index set. We develop the first simultaneous pointwise majorization theory for Banach-valued processes with finite-metric mixed-tail increments. Suppose that an anchored process $(Z_t)_{t\in T}$ satisfies, for some integer $m\ge1$, pseudo-metrics $d_1,\ldots,d_m$, and orders $\alpha_1,\ldots,\alpha_m>0$, \begin{align*} \mathbb{P}\{\|Z_t-Z_s\|>\sum_{j=1}^m u^{1/\alpha_j}d_j(s,t)\}\le 2e^{-u},s,t\in T. \end{align*} For ambient priors $\mu_1,\ldots,\mu_m$, let $v_j(t):=d_j(t,t_0), \Phi_j(t):=\int_0^{4v_j(t)}(\log\frac{1}{\mu_j(B_{d_j}(t,r))})^{1/\alpha_j}dr$. We prove that, $\forall \delta\in(0,1)$, with probability at least $1-\delta$, simultaneously for all $t\in T$, \begin{align*} \|Z_t\|\le C_{m,\boldsymbol\alpha}\sum_{j=1}^m\{\Phi_j(t)+v_j(t)(\log(e/\delta))^{1/\alpha_j}\}. \end{align*} Here $\boldsymbol\alpha:=(\alpha_1,\ldots,\alpha_m)$ and $C_{m,\boldsymbol\alpha}$ depend only on $m$ and these tail orders. The result subsumes single-metric sub-Weibull processes of every positive order as the case $m=1$. In the Gaussian setting, it sharpens the pointwise upper bound of \citet{xu2026} by eliminating the logarithmic terms generated by dyadic peeling. The proof retains the index-wise costs of measure-generated admissible chains and synchronizes the regimes through a nested common refinement. Finally, we apply our theorems to stationary diffusion empirical processes and decoupled Gaussian chaos to obtain simultaneous pointwise envelope bounds, which can further be applied to other statistics problems.

Feature-based newsvendor models use observable covariates to tailor inventory decisions, aiming to balance holding and shortage costs under demand uncertainty. However, high-dimensional feature sets often hinder interpretability and inflate data collection and implementation costs. This paper studies variable selection for the feature-based newsvendor problem under a hard cardinality constraint on the number of selected features. We formulate the resulting $\ell_0$-constrained empirical newsvendor problem with $\ell_2$-regularization, establish its computational hardness, and develop a mixed-integer second-order cone programming reformulation that strengthens the standard Big-$M$ formulation. To enable scalability beyond exact optimization, we develop a randomized-rounding algorithm with a bi-criteria guarantee and a greedy heuristic. Statistically, we provide theoretical analysis of the resulting sparse policy estimator, including finite-sample estimation error, out-of-sample risk bounds, and support recovery guarantees. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data illustrate the computational and statistical trade-offs among various baselines. Our results demonstrate that the proposed variable selection framework achieves competitive out-of-sample operational costs while using substantially fewer covariates.

Generative data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, yet its theoretical effect on downstream generalization remains poorly understood. In this work, we develop a statistical framework for conditional generative augmentation and analyze its impact on classification risk. We formalize augmentation as a distribution-mixing process and show that the resulting risk distortion is controlled by both the augmentation strength and the class-conditional Wasserstein discrepancy between real and generated distributions. We further derive a capacity-dependent generalization bound based on Rademacher complexity, revealing an explicit trade-off between hypothesis complexity, augmentation intensity, and generative fidelity. Empirically, we evaluate the framework on binary and multiclass imbalanced classification tasks using Conditional GAN and Conditional WGAN-GP augmentation. Across datasets, CWGAN-GP consistently achieves lower Wasserstein discrepancies than CGAN, indicating improved distributional fidelity. However, improved fidelity does not necessarily translate into superior classification performance, with classical oversampling methods often remaining competitive. These findings support the central theoretical prediction that augmentation reliability is governed by distributional approximation error rather than predictive performance alone. Overall, this work establishes generative augmentation as a distributional perturbation process whose reliability can be quantified through Wasserstein-based measures and supported by finite-sample generalization guarantees. The proposed framework provides a principled foundation for evaluating synthetic data quality beyond classification accuracy alone.

The Rashomon effect is a machine learning phenomenon where equally accurate models produce different predictions for the same inputs (predictive multiplicity). Existing work primarily focuses on multiplicity within individual models, but in more complex decision systems, the impact of the Rashomon effect is less well understood. In this work, we study multiplicity from the perspective of auditing incorrect ensemble predictions, where the decision to divert an instance for human review is based on a consistency criterion that combines the ensemble margin with a measure of local prediction variability for each constituent model. With mild assumptions about stability and smoothness, we show that the consistency scores of finite ensembles converge to the corresponding consistency score of the expected model from the Rashomon set as the ensemble size and the number of samples used to measure local prediction variability increase. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed criterion, we evaluate the framework with respect to transformer models applied to natural language understanding tasks and parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large language models used for tabular data classification tasks. Our experiments show that ensembling models from the Rashomon set substantially reduces the risk of incorrect predictions going unchecked compared with auditing a single model, while incurring only a moderate increase in the number of diversions. Moreover, the auditing behavior of the full Rashomon set can be closely approximated by finite ensembles of relatively modest size, with the risk approaching zero for some datasets. We further demonstrate that the proposed measure exhibits stronger agreement with established predictive multiplicity metrics than existing consistency measures, providing a more reliable way to capture multiplicity in the Rashomon set.

At a junction, a score field can reveal weighted tangent rays, yet these first-order quantities do not determine how individual branches bend or how their densities change away from the center. Recovering this missing information is necessary for describing local continuation beyond a single point, but finite observations must separate branchwise second-order effects while allowing error in the estimated center. We address this inverse problem using matched score queries at noise scales $\sigma$ and $\lambda\sigma$. For a finite union of $C^{2,\alpha}$ half-branches in $\mathbb{R}^D$, the normalized score has the expansion $F_\sigma=F_0+\sigma G+O(\sigma^{1+\alpha})$. Matched subtraction cancels the tangent contribution and exposes $G$, which depends linearly on branchwise curvature and log-density slope. Given tangent directions and weights on distinct rays, $G$ uniquely identifies all $sD$ branch parameters, and $sD$ scalar component observations are necessary. An $O(\sigma^2)$ center error introduces $D$ translation modes, leading to $(s+1)D$ observations under full-rank calibration, except for a translation-invariant full line. We also establish a perturbation bound and a conditional kernel-density-estimation rate. Experiments reproduce the predicted population and $N^{-1/5}$ trends and remain full rank up to $D=20$ with 16 supplied branches. In end-to-end tests for $D=3$–$5$, a known-count first-order frontend yields full rank in all 135 population systems and a median relative jet error of 0.132. With strong first-order error, matched responses reduce median parameter error by a factor of 49.4 relative to naive tangent subtraction.

We extend recent work establishing an equivalence between one-layer transformers and nearest-neighbor classifiers in the binary setting to the multiclass case. By leveraging the simplex encoding, we show that one-layer transformers with an argmax classification head behave identically to a one-nearest-neighbor classifier in the multiclass setting. This closes a gap left by prior work, whose multiclass result relied on a non-standard rounding-based approach rather than the typical argmax head used in practice.

We prove that a multi-head scaled dot product attention can be viewed as a parameter identification strategy. The ratio of unidentified parameters to the total number of parameters scales like the reciprocal of the number of heads ($1/2 \to 1/(2H)$), meaning models with more heads are structurally more identified. A subtle side effect of the mathematics observation that attention can never be fully identified. Similarly we also show that some bias terms can have no effect on softmax-based attention layers in both the single- and multiple-head settings, though this is mostly a curiosity that should have a marginal effect on model size and model training/prediction efficiency. We also touch on modern improvements to transformers including RoPE and GQA from this perspective, illustrating how those as well can improve the ratio of “meaningful” parameters to all parameters. Simple numerical examples demonstrate that training can indeed involve updates that overlap model-invariant subspaces that arise from a lack of identification. As part of our experiments we use a “rebalancing” approach that can “fix” updates that overlap unindentified subspaces but do not try to present evidence this should actually be adopted. Instead we simply view our numerical results as exploring and confirming the theoretical results. As a whole we discuss a purely mathematical/statistical explanation, identification, for why specific architectural choices in transformers may have improved performance.

The present research is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of a density-dependent drift coefficient in a multivariate McKean–Vlasov diffusion from independent observations at a common time, as well as the stationary density. Under certain assumptions on the (known) potential, we reduce the problem to the one-dimensional one and construct a sieve maximum-likelihood estimator based on sparse ReQU neural networks subject to structural and Hölder constraints. Using the endpoint-adapted graded approximation, we achieve the rate of $\left(b_n\log n/n\right)^{2(\beta+1)/(2\beta+3)}$ for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true and estimated stationary densities, with $b_n$ being at most a logarithmic factor. Similarly, it is shown that the constructed estimator for the drift coefficient converges to the true one at the rate of $\left(b_n\log n/n\right)^{\beta/(2\beta+3)}$ in the $L^2$-metric. A matching Assouad lower bound proves minimax optimality of this bound up to logarithmic factors.

Reconstructing a damaged musical fragment is an inverse problem: the observed sequence contains partial information, while a raga encodes constraints limiting allowable completions. This paper formalizes a mathematical framework for this, proposing the Artificial Rosetta Stone (ARS). We separate three claims often conflated: a symbolic sequence can be reconstructed probabilistically; a sequence can be consistent with an explicit grammar; and a historical performance can be authenticated. We only support the first two. We model a raga via a finite alphabet and constraint system, using an order-k Markov model for melodic probabilities. A symmetric Dirichlet prior yields a tractable posterior. We pose missing-note reconstruction as a constrained MAP problem. For fixed-length sequences and finite-order constraints, optimization admits an exact dynamic-programming solution with worst-case time complexity $O(TN^{k+1})$. We derive the parameter count $N^k(N - 1)$, prove a concentration bound under explicit mixing assumptions, and analyze estimation error propagation. A reproducible synthetic experiment uses six raga-inspired alphabets, orders $k \in \{1, 2, 3\}$, and masking rates up to 50%. This is a proof of concept, not historical reconstruction. A real-audio feasibility pilot evaluates 30 usable sequences from 42 Yaman clips via automated pitch extraction, segmentation, and quantization. Lacking documented provenance and relying on automated transcription, this is not expert-validated archival reconstruction. Claims are tied to stated conditions, not universal properties of Hindustani music. Code: https://github.com/mathacker23/ArtificialRosettaStone.

Uniform-state discrete diffusion models update all tokens in parallel while keeping every position revisable. Even when the commonly used top-$p$ rule leaves only one candidate at a position, that choice affects only the current reverse step and can be revised at the next sampling step. We ask what changes when selected hypotheses instead become persistent context for later predictions. We therefore propose committed reveal sampling (CRS), a training-free sampler that stores selected argmax tokens and inserts them into subsequent model inputs. Our analysis gives a rationale for selecting later and for keeping selected tokens visible. Under the exact forward process, the Bayes error of selecting a clean token cannot increase as noise decreases, while in a simple latent-mode model, keeping the selected token visible helps later parallel predictions agree on the same sequence-level choice. Empirically, paired experiments on Duo-distilled then separate this persistent effect from single-step top-$p$ restriction and scalar temperature scaling. Under the same finalization rule, CRS without top-$p$ truncation reaches lower generative perplexity (GenPPL) than fixed $p=0.95$ and $p=0.9$ baselines across budgets of 8–64 function evaluations (NFE). At 64 NFE, the comparison at matched unigram entropy also gives lower GenPPL for CRS, yielding a more favorable GenPPL–entropy tradeoff. Base Duo shows the same direction in a descriptive comparison, while other diversity and continuation metrics can rank these operating points differently. These results identify support restriction and persistent context as distinct controls of that tradeoff.

The central flow of Cohen et al. (2025) is an empirically accurate continuous-time model of gradient descent at the edge of stability in deep learning, However, its derivation is heuristic. We propose a perturbative regime in which the central flow is the limit of gradient descent: we assume that the loss decomposes as $f = g + \varepsilon h$; in the limit $\varepsilon \to 0$, the dynamics of gradient descent with learning rate $\eta$ converge to the gradient flow of $h$ constrained to the minimizers of $g$ of sharpness at most $2/\eta$. Our approach is formal rather than rigorous; it treats gradient descent as a singularly perturbed dynamical system in $\varepsilon$. Three timescales emerge: a fast timescale of oscillations along the sharpest direction, an intermediate timescale of the self-stabilization mechanism, and a slow timescale of the dynamics along the minimizers of $g$-the central flow. Using the method of multiple scales, a classical formal method from singular perturbation theory, we derive the expansion of the dynamics in $\varepsilon$: the central flow emerges as the leading-order term in the expansion, while the self-stabilization mechanism appears in the next-order term. We study this mechanism beyond previous analyses: with a single eigenvalue at the edge of stability, we compute the slow drift of the energy of the fluctuations; with several eigenvalues at the edge of stability, we derive the self-stabilization system and explain why fluctuations persist.

Conditional independence tests (CITs) test for conditional dependence between two random objects $X$ and $Y$ given a third random object $Z$. Existing CITs have limited applicability to high-dimensional data, especially multimodal data like text. However, we show that such tests are of interest for large language model (LLM) outputs, where we test whether an output $X$ generated from a source text $Z$ carries information about an attribute $Y$ beyond $Z$ itself. For this purpose, we propose embedded CITs (eCITs), which embed $X$ and $Z$ and apply an existing CIT to the resulting representations and to $Y$. We show that, provided the embedding of $Z$ is sufficient, i.e. retains the information $Z$ carries about either $Y$ or the representation of $X$, the null hypothesis transfers from $X$ and $Z$ to their representations, so that a CIT valid for the embedded hypothesis is valid for the original one. We further give conditions for equivalence of the two hypotheses, and show that sufficiency weakens to mean sufficiency when the embedded test targets conditional mean independence. We propose a semi-synthetic simulation design to assess type I error (T1E) control and power of the eCITs for given embedding maps on a specific dataset and task, and use it to evaluate them on our application. Applying the eCITs to German Parliament speeches, we find for all combinations of embedding maps considered that the summaries of two LLMs contain information about the speaker's faction and gender beyond the speech they were generated from.

Sampling from distributions conditioned on desired semantic properties is an emerging challenge in modern generative modeling. Metropolis-Hastings (MH) provides a principled route to conditional sampling, but requires access to exact pointwise target-density evaluations, which are not available in generative settings. Meanwhile, pairwise comparisons by humans or model "judge" are highly accessible and have proved valuable across diverse applications. We introduce Pref-MH, a general exact MH sampler for judge-induced conditional distributions using only stochastic binary pairwise comparisons. Our key observation is that the MH unnormalized density ratio matches the preference odds of the Bradley-Terry (BT) choice model. The central challenge is that while MH requires precise ratio computation, BT judges provide only sampled binary feedback. To this end, we develop a valid accept/reject rule whose resulting Markov chain provably converges to the target distribution. We further show that, for a fixed proposal kernel and budget, Pref-MH is optimal in the Peskun-Tierney sense among this class of exact reversible acceptance rules. Experiments on text generation and molecular design with LLM judges, as well as image generation with VLM judges, demonstrate that Pref-MH provides a practical and flexible approach to conditional sampling when comparative feedback is relatively easy to obtain.

We consider semi-supervised classification from a partially classified sample arising from a two-component Weibull mixture. The feature is observed for all data, whereas some class labels are missing. The probability of a missing label is modelled as a function of classification uncertainty, giving a feature-dependent missing-at-random (MAR) mechanism that shares parameters with the Weibull-mixture classifier. The missing-label indicators can therefore provide information about the classifier in addition to the observed features and available class labels. Under a common Weibull shape, a Bayes' rule has at most one positive decision boundary, which is unique when the rule is nonconstant; under unequal shapes, it can have two. We characterise these decision regions, derive the Fisher information for the classifier after adjustment for nuisance parameters in the missingness model, and obtain a decision-boundary expansion of the expected error rate of the plug-in sample rule relative to the Bayes error. The expansion yields classification-specific asymptotic relative efficiency formulas for the one- and two-boundary cases and shows that a positive-definite increase in Fisher information is sufficient, but not necessary, for a smaller first-order expected error rate. Numerical studies and a semi-synthetic analysis based on hard-drive failure data illustrate potential reductions in expected error rate and improvements in decision-boundary estimation from modelling feature-dependent label missingness.

High-dimensional clustering is challenging when component distributions are both heavy-tailed and directionally asymmetric. We propose a deep skew-$t$ mixture model (DStMM), a hierarchical factor-analytic mixture based on the generalised-hyperbolic skew-$t$ normal mean–variance representation. A shared inverse-gamma mixing variable is propagated along each complete latent pathway, allowing heavy tails and directional asymmetry to be modelled jointly while preserving conditional Gaussianity. Each complete pathway therefore admits an exact GHST marginal representation. We formalise the reductions to symmetric deep $t$, Gaussian deep-mixture, and single-layer GHST factor-analytic models, discuss local non-identifiability and the implementation-level parameter-counting convention, and derive the conditional generalised inverse Gaussian law used for estimation. Estimation is carried out by a stochastic/Monte Carlo EM algorithm, with an explicit implementation-based parameter count for BIC architecture comparison. Simulation studies show that DStMM performs similarly to the symmetric robust model when skewness is absent but provides increasing gains as directional asymmetry becomes stronger, particularly under heavier tails; the same qualitative behaviour persists under smaller samples and unequal mixture proportions. Two real-data applications provide complementary evidence. On the UCI handwritten-digit benchmark, DStMM gives the strongest clustering performance under a common deep architecture, while on the Gas Sensor Array Drift data, DStMM improves on both deep Gaussian and deep $t$ alternatives and, under the implemented BIC criterion, selects a non-trivial second mixture layer. Together, these results support the value of propagating skewness and heavy-tail variation through a deep latent mixture while retaining an exact pathway-level likelihood.

Post-hoc out-of-distribution detectors are fitted on a finite reference set, so every score they produce is an estimate. If we had chosen a different set, some verdicts would have moved. We measure that movement by resampling the reference set and recording the bootstrap standard deviation of the score, which we call verdict instability. It admits a closed form with no fitted parameters. The instability of a verdict is the within-class dispersion of the assigned class along the query's direction, divided by the square root of that class's reference count. That count is what separates verdict instability from the geometry of the score distribution, and it is identifiable only under class imbalance. Instability grows with the local dispersion. Far-OOD queries lie along the low-variance directions of an anisotropic embedding, so every distance-based score we test assigns its highest values to the verdicts that are most reproducible. Only estimators of local dispersion carry the sign a practitioner expects. We give a rule that predicts this sign for any score from a single label-free correlation, and abstention driven by a wrong-signed score turns out worse than abstention at random on every dataset we test.

Matrix-variate data with missing entries arise frequently in applications where observations are naturally organized as two-dimensional arrays. Although the matrix normal distribution provides a parsimonious model through its Kronecker covariance structure, standard EM estimation can be computationally expensive because arbitrary missingness patterns typically destroy this separability in the E-step. In this paper, we propose an efficient partial EM algorithm for matrix-variate normal data with missing entries. The proposed method updates the conditional mean and covariance of the missing component through coordinate-wise approximations, avoiding repeated inversion of pattern-specific covariance matrices and avoiding construction of the full vectorized covariance matrix. We further develop a specialized update for submatrix missingness, where the missing-block precision retains a Kronecker product structure, and the covariance update can be carried out independently in the row and column directions. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods substantially reduce computation time compared with exact EM while preserving nearly identical observed-data likelihood across a range of dimensions and missing proportions. A real-data application to hyperspectral image patches demonstrates that the proposed imputation strategy can be embedded within a matrix-variate mixture model for simultaneous imputation and clustering.

This paper develops a general convolutional neural network (CNN) framework for detecting heterogeneous event-driven dynamics in univariate time series windows. We show that the induced CNN class exactly represents classifiers based on range, maximum drawup, maximum drawdown and slope change, and uniformly approximates realised volatility and autoregressive explosiveness on compact domains. We further establish error bounds for representative rules in finite samples and an oracle inequality for learning across them. Simulations show that the proposed model can match or outperform classifiers based on individual statistics as the training sample grows. In an application to six daily energy price series, a hierarchical CNN distinguishes event windows and event families. Applied without retraining to observations withheld after 20 February 2026, the fitted model identifies predominantly geopolitical dynamics in several oil and refined product series around the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, while distinguishing a contemporaneous natural gas spike associated with weather.

This work shows that diffusion models learned with standard denoising loss can provide effective global MCMC proposals for complex high-dimensional target densities. The method is motivated by the observation that sequentially applying a forward and reverse diffusion process defines a Markov chain with a target stationary distribution for an ideal denoiser trained on samples of the target distribution. This observation can be made exact for any denoiser by applying a Metropolis-Hastings step whose acceptance ratio includes the density of the forward and reverse paths of a discrete time SDE approximation. We therefore propose to train denoising diffusion models on locally convergent MALA samples to learn global MCMC proposals. We call the composition of the global denoiser-based path sampler and a local MALA sampler Denoising Diffusion Monte Carlo (DDMC). Experiments show that DDMC can provide global proposals with high acceptance across a variety of complex target densities. Our results offer preliminary evidence that the established scaling behavior of standard diffusion training transfers directly to exact sampling from high-dimensional unnormalized densities.

We study federated online reinforcement learning with linear function approximation. While recent multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms achieve strong regret guarantees, they typically require sharing raw trajectories. This reliance incurs a communication cost that scales linearly with the number of episodes and violates the privacy constraints of federated settings. To address these limitations, we propose Fed-LSVI, the first provably efficient federated algorithm for online reinforcement learning with linear function approximation in episodic Markov decision processes. By integrating a determinant-based event-triggered synchronization with a stepwise backward update mechanism, Fed-LSVI enables agents to collaboratively learn an optimal policy by exchanging only compressed sufficient statistics. We prove that Fed-LSVI achieves a regret bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal O}(\sqrt{Md^3H^4T})$, where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ is the horizon length, $M$ is the number of agents, and $T$ is the number of episodes per agent, matching the best-known regret for multi-agent online reinforcement learning with linear function approximation. Moreover, by following the stringent communication and privacy constraints of the federated setting, Fed-LSVI reduces the communication cost to only logarithmic dependence on $T$, representing a significant improvement over prior methods.

This paper studies the problem of computing the stochastic probability (shortest code length) of the encoded vectors containing cluster structure using Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) model. This is of great theoretical and practical importance in data clustering based on Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, such as for estimating the best number of clusters and best cluster structure for the data. Straightforward computation of the shortest code length of the vector containing cluster structure based on the NML model requires polynomial time with respect to the size of the vector and number of clusters. We show that this is a tractable problem by introducing a recursion formula for the efficient computation of normalizing constant from the NML model. The time complexity of the new formula is linear opposed to previous polynomial time with respect to the size of the vector and number of clusters.

Many parameter-efficient methods generate the parameters of a large neural network from a low-dimensional latent representation. Given an architecture $\Phi$ with $P_\Phi$ parameter slots, we write $\boldsymbol{\theta}_f=\mathcal{G}(\boldsymbol{\xi}_f)$, where $\mathcal{G}\colon\mathbb{R}^M\to\mathbb{R}^{P_\Phi}$ is a parameter generator and $\boldsymbol{\xi}_f\in\mathbb{R}^M$ is a latent representation of the target function $f$. The architecture $\Phi$ and the generator $\mathcal{G}$ are shared across the entire target class, while each target $f$ is represented by its own latent vector $\boldsymbol{\xi}_f$, with $\Phi_{\mathcal{G}(\boldsymbol{\xi}_f)}$ approximating $f$. This framework encompasses hypernetworks, low-dimensional parameterizations, parameter-efficient adaptation, and model compression. Understanding the tradeoff between the latent dimension $M$ and the network budget $P$ is therefore fundamental to characterizing the expressive efficiency of these methods. We study this tradeoff for affine generators and fully connected ReLU architectures. More precisely, optimizing jointly over architectures $\Phi$ satisfying $P_\Phi\leq P$ and affine generators $\mathcal{G}:\mathbb{R}^M\to \mathbb{R}^{P_\Phi}$, we prove that the optimal worst-case uniform approximation error over the unit ball of $\alpha$-Hölder functions on $[0,1]^d$, where $0<\alpha\leq1$, has the sharp order $ \bigl(P\min\{M,P\}\bigr)^{-\alpha/d}. $ In particular, our result shows that even a fixed-dimensional latent space suffices to achieve vanishing approximation error as the network budget increases.

Neural network mixed-effects models (NMMs) have gained traction by combining the strong representation and predictive power of artificial neural networks with the capacity of mixed-effects modeling to capture complex correlation structures. However, existing estimation approaches rely heavily on manual derivations of objective functions and gradients, which inherently forces simplifying approximations and severely constrains the complexity and accuracy of NMMs. In this work, we introduce a general framework for implementing NMMs using Template Model Builder (TMB). By leveraging automatic differentiation and Laplace approximation, TMB requires users to specify only the negative joint log-likelihood and any regularization terms. The framework automatically integrates out random effects and evaluates the marginal objective function alongside its exact gradients, eliminating the need for manual derivations or ad hoc approximations. We demonstrate the efficiency, flexibility, and statistical performance of TMB-based NMMs across two numerical examples, including an application to monotonic NMMs. Reproducible code is provided to facilitate broader adoption.

Cluster algorithms, such as the Swendsen–Wang and Wolff methods, are among the most successful MCMC methods for mitigating critical slowing down in statistical systems. These constructive cluster algorithms, however, fail in the presence of even extremely weak frustration. Here, we sidestep this fundamental limitation by learning rather than constructing the relevant clusters. Specifically, we use the wavelet conditional renormalization group (WCRG) sampling method to learn the probability distribution of collective fluctuations of a frustrated two-dimensional soft-spin model. Configurations are then generated recursively from coarse to fine scales by sampling conditional wavelet distributions. The WCRG method reproduces the main statistical properties of the system across different phases, including the local-field distribution and the structure factor. At an Ising-like critical point, the conditional dynamics remains decorrelated within $\mathcal{O}(1)$ sweeps at each scale, yielding an overall sampling complexity of $\mathcal{O}(\log_2 L)$, thus making WCRG much more efficient than standard local MCMC methods. These results show that learned multiscale sampling can overcome critical slowing down in frustrated systems for which conventional cluster algorithms fail. By assessing the sampling accuracy of different observables, we also clarify the main tradeoff of the WCRG method: the accuracy of the fast sampling scheme depends on the expressiveness of the energy-based model used to estimate the wavelet conditional distributions.

When do text embeddings work as inputs to empirical analysis? Their use rests on an assumption: that we can trade text for its low-dimensional embedding, and lose little in doing so. I make that assumption precise under a generative model in which documents are mixtures of latent topics. I study two uses—clustering units in embedding space and controlling for high-dimensional text. A cluster of embeddings is a set of documents with similar topic mixtures; controlling for the embedding is equivalent to controlling for the topic mixture, so validity reduces to whether that mixture captures the confounding. In an application to 363 U.S. metropolitan areas, embedding-based clusters of LLM-generated economic descriptions recover interpretable economic archetypes and separate local employment dynamics more sharply than clustering on model residuals, or on a curated set of industry and demographic covariates.

Scientific discovery often requires reasoning over competing hypotheses that are consistent with experimental observations. For mixed-variable and combinatorial hypothesis spaces, however, constructing probabilistic representations remains challenging because both the active model components and their associated parameters are unknown. In this work, we present a framework for learning continuous latent representations of admissible partial differential equations (PDEs) by embedding a scientific inductive bias directly into the training distribution. Progressively richer structural principles (e.g., sparsity, logical dependencies, common PDE families, and physical admissibility) are used to generate a structured distribution of hypotheses from which a gated variational autoencoder learns a continuous latent manifold. Experimental results show that the resulting 11-dimensional representation accurately reconstructs a broad collection of representative PDEs, while exhibiting smooth geometric transitions both within and across equation families. Through an ablation study we further demonstrate that introducing scientific principles reduces both structural misclassifications of equation forms and parameter estimation errors when reconstructing a representative benchmark set of admissible partial differential equations. These results show that embedding a scientific inductive bias in the training distribution enables the learning of compact and geometrically meaningful hypothesis manifolds, providing a principled foundation for future inference over competing governing equations.

Agent evaluations often use one benchmark to choose a workflow and then search for task types where its advantage weakens, so both conclusions are selected from the same data. We introduce Selection-Aware Semantic Stress Testing (\SASST{}), which learns a task reweighting from pre-execution features on discovery tasks and evaluates the same paired comparison on separate confirmation tasks. The protocol checks support and stability, uses joint bounds for all planned claims, and can return no claim. We prove conditional asymptotic validity under stated cluster assumptions. A forty-cluster audit finds Gaussian undercoverage and conservative Bonferroni $t$ bounds. In one 480-episode $\tau$-bench study, a $3.75$ point discovery gain vanished on confirmation. A second-model study likewise confirmed neither a workflow benefit nor a stable stress rule.

We develop a marginal coordinate test for regression with Euclidean predictors and a random-object response in a separable metric space. The goal is to test whether a predictor provides additional information about the response conditional on the remaining predictors. In a semi-supervised design, an unlabeled sample is used to estimate predictor conditional means, while an independent labeled sample is reserved for inference. The resulting residuals are combined with a product-space kernel to form a kernel conditional mean dependence (KCMD) U-statistic without requiring a response residual. The primary identity-based test targets a necessary conditional mean restriction, while a multiple-transformation extension probes broader alternatives. We establish a weighted centered chi-square null limit, wild bootstrap validity, consistency against fixed detectable alternatives, and local power under mean-element alternatives. For simultaneous inference, truncated p-to-e calibration combined with e-BH provides asymptotic false discovery rate control under general dependence. Simulations with Euclidean and non-Euclidean responses, together with a New York City taxi-flow analysis, illustrate the method.

Informative label missingness can change the usual efficiency ordering between completely and partially labelled classifiers because the pattern of missing labels may itself carry information about the classification model. We develop a general likelihood-based theory for this phenomenon in parametric multiclass classification. An efficient-information decomposition separates information lost through unavailable class memberships from information contributed by the missing-label mechanism. We then derive a quadratic expansion of plug-in excess risk over the active pairwise faces of the multiclass Bayes boundary, showing that classification efficiency depends on how information gains and losses align with directions that perturb the decision boundary. This yields a classification-weighted generalized-eigenvalue criterion under which informative partial classification may have smaller asymptotic classification risk without globally dominating complete classification in Fisher information. Near missing completely at random, with the marginal missing-label proportion fixed, redistribution of missing labels changes lost class-label information at first order, whereas efficient information from the missingness pattern appears only at second order. Three-class quadratic discriminant calculations, finite-sample experiments, and a semi-synthetic multiclass application illustrate the resulting regime-dependent behaviour.

Machine learning systems are increasingly corrected while they run, and the decision of when to intervene is increasingly delegated to statistical monitors. Anytime-valid inference promises evidence that can be acted on at any moment, exactly the guarantee this setting needs, and it is moving from theory into deployed monitoring. Conformal test martingales are the change-detection instrument, and Ville's inequality caps their false-alarm probability on exchangeable data. The guarantee is conditional. A deployment inherits it only if the stream it monitors behaves exchangeably. The premise is hardest to satisfy where these monitors are most useful, on dependent data and inside loops where the monitor modifies the learner whose scores it reads. It is also rarely measured. We measure it in a pre-specified case study, where such a monitor gates the online updates of a Kalman adapter correcting frozen time-series foundation models on five forecasting streams. On exchangeable synthetic streams, the same implementation fires in at most 1 of 60 runs. On the real streams, at alpha = 0.05, 135 of 135 clean-stream runs fired. The construction does not explain the firing; the failure comes from the deployed score stream itself. Repeated fires hold the gate's drift response active, and the gated filter amplifies the very transient it was designed to prevent. The component worth keeping makes no validity claim. Huber-style gating of the filter's own updates cuts isolated-spike degradation by an order of magnitude with no dataset specific tuning. Anytime-valid methods proposed for dependent data should therefore be accompanied by null-calibration controls and mechanism traces.