Papers

We consider fluctuations of the spin current in the stochastic XNOR process, a kinetically constrained hopping model in one spatial dimension. We formulate three conjectures with explicit amplitudes for the long-time current distributions: a Gaussian limit on the $t^{1/4}$ scale for homogeneous initial states with nonzero magnetization, a half-normal limit on the $t^{1/4}$ scale for domain-wall states with opposite magnetizations, and an M-Wright limit on the $t^{1/8}$ scale for homogeneous initial states at zero magnetization. Earlier work identified the tracer mechanism and anticipated the scaling exponents and limiting shapes in the domain-wall and zero-magnetization settings. Starting from the microscopic XNOR dynamics, we predict the missing amplitudes for the continuous-time process and extend the picture to homogeneous biased initial data. Simulations provide numerical support for all three conjectures without fitted parameters. A separate mathematical companion paper presents an extensively AI-generated candidate proof. Generative-AI tools were used in the research and writing workflow.

The minimum-time feedback law for driving a population of coupled oscillators into synchrony is unknown. Here we settle it for identical Kuramoto oscillators under an instantaneous power constraint. Greedy control, maximizing $\dot r$ at each instant, is exactly optimal at $N=2$ and suboptimal above, as dynamic programming confirms at $N=3,4$. The obstruction is geometric: the greedy closed loop is a reparametrized gradient flow of $r$, fixing its path independently of the power budget, and as a first-harmonic forcing it cannot leave a single Möbius orbit. A three-harmonic policy trained on the DP fields, a trajectory expert, and a smooth first-hitting-time objective beats greedy by $10$–$14\%$ at $N=10$–$100$ and matches DP to within $0.3\%$ where ground truth exists. Reading the policy rather than deploying it collapses it to a two-constant law, $u_i\propto-\sin\phi_i+a_2\sin2\phi_i+a_3\sin3\phi_i$, which recovers $84$–$99\%$ of the network's advantage, with the same functional form holding from $N=3$ to $N=1000$. Machine learning discovered a closed-form law beyond the reach of direct analytical methods.

Obtaining equilibrium distributions of nonlinear systems is essential for accurately computing macroscopic observables. Conventional theoretical corrections are typically limited to weak nonlinearities, where interaction terms can be treated as effectively uncorrelated perturbations and the random phase approximation applies. In this Letter, we develop a framework to determine equilibrium distributions based on the generalized energy equipartition principle. Our approach recovers existing corrections in the weakly nonlinear regime and, crucially, remains valid for strong nonlinearities, where perturbative contributions become correlated and conventional approaches break down. Numerical simulations of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation, the Majda-McLaughlin-Tabak model, and the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou model demonstrate accurate corrections for nonlinearities more than an order of magnitude stronger than those accessible to conventional theories.

Time delays are ubiquitous in physical and biological networked systems, playing a fundamental role in the emergence and stability of collective behavior. Yet, existing theoretical methods for synchronization analysis of delay-coupled systems are largely limited to networks with homogeneous degree distributions. Here, we extend the master stability function framework to a broad class of degree-heterogeneous, weighted, and directed delay-coupled networks. The analysis reveals that synchronization can be enhanced in heterogeneous networks compared to homogeneous ones, including all-to-all networks, which are known to be optimal in non-delayed systems. To identify optimal heterogeneous structures, we develop a network optimization method that finds directional, edge-weighted configurations maximizing synchronization stability. Our results show that, in delay-coupled networks, heterogeneity and nonreciprocity are key resources for synchronization.

The present paper is devoted to the study of integral properties of alpha unpredictable functions. The problem of invariance of recurrence under integration is one of the most challenging and interesting in the theory of functions. Let us start with periodicity. Next, the problem was solved for quasiperiodic, almost periodic, and Poisson stable functions. All of the problems were subjected to the condition of bounded integrals. The alpha-unpredictable functions are the endpoint in the row of recurrent functions. The class is the cross-border point from regularity to chaos in the dynamics presented through the elements of the row. In the present research, we finalized the proof that any theoretical functional recurrence is invariant with respect to integration, provided the result is bounded.

We study the emergence of complexity in finite-size quantum systems as their dynamics transition from closed and coherent evolution to interacting and effectively open behavior. Using a state-based geometric framework, we represent mixed quantum states as probability measures on complex projective Hilbert space. This representation allows us to track how interactions reshape the underlying pure-state geometry. We introduce two complementary diagnostics: a distinguishability measure, based on the Wasserstein distance between probability-measure representations of mixed states, that quantifies sensitivity to initial states, and a state-space coverage index that measures long-time exploration of the subsystem state space. These diagnostics provide a geometric perspective on the emergence and evolution of quantum dynamical complexity. When applied to the quantum kicked top, both diagnostics generally increase with interaction strength. Their dependence on environment size is structured by parity symmetry, with integer-spin systems often exhibiting greater sensitivity and state-space coverage than half-integer-spin systems. These results highlight finite-size quantum effects and provide a geometric approach to quantifying dynamical complexity deep in the quantum regime

We investigate the dynamics of entanglement in a generalized version of the kicked Ising chain, extending the model from the standard qubit case (local dimension $q=2$) to higher local dimensions ($q > 2$). We identify the existence of ”dual-unitary” points where the model's space-time duality allows for exact analytical solutions. Our analysis reveals that while a few unique dual-unitary points exist analytically for systems with local dimensions $q=3$ and $q=4$, such points do not exist for $q \ge 5$ due to the lack of a unique kicking strength that satisfies the required matrix element conditions. Utilizing the transfer matrix method and a replica trick specifically adapted for higher dimensions, we derive exact expressions for the growth of entanglement entropy in the $q=3$ (kicked Potts-type) model starting from a class of solvable initial states. Our results demonstrate that at the dual-unitary point, both Rényi and von Neumann entanglement entropies grow linearly with time until reaching a maximum value determined by the subsystem size.

We provide an exact and complete solution for the dynamics of a rigid particle of uniform density with $C_{2v}$ and $S_4$ symmetry, settling under gravity in a viscous fluid at a Reynolds number much smaller than unity. The $S_4$ symmetry renders the problem exactly integrable, with all orbits labelled by a single conserved quantity $0\le C\le 1$. We show that, for $0<C<1$, there are two different time scales, which lead to quasi-periodic evolution, with a significant time-dependent horizontal displacement. We obtain the tilt $\theta$ and spin $\psi$ Euler angles as periodic Jacobi elliptic functions of time, and the azimuthal angle $\phi$ through an incomplete elliptic integral of the third kind with a complex characteristic, which splits $\phi$ into a uniform drift and a strictly periodic modulation. The orientation period and the drift rate (corresponding to a constant angular velocity around the gravity direction) follow in a closed form. The vertical centre-of-mass displacement is obtained in terms of periodic in time incomplete elliptic integrals, and the periodic orbit-averaged settling velocity reduces to a single ratio of complete elliptic integrals. The horizontal component of the motion in the laboratory frame of reference is obtained exactly and algebraically in terms of all three Euler angles, so it is quasi-periodic. The horizontal component of the centre-of-mass position traces rosette-like, in general open curves confined by two concentric `envelope' circles. We determine very simple exact expressions for radii of both envelopes and demonstrate that they tend to infinity for a family of shapes with the rotation-translation coupling decreasing to zero. We also explain the origin of cusps at the rosette-like trajectory and provide a commensurability condition selecting strictly periodic rosettes.

While conventional rogue wave statistical models rely on linear or weakly nonlinear descriptions of random seas, we demonstrate experimentally that moderately or strongly nonlinear wave fields can be represented by sparse ensembles of coherent soliton-like packets. These packets exhibit log-normal amplitude distributions together with uniformly distributed phases and peak emergence times. This sparse coherent structure framework naturally leads to an extreme value description in which the probability of exceedance is governed by the tail of the coherent-structure amplitude distribution. The prediction is validated against laboratory hydrodynamic experiments across a variety of unidirectional sea states, showing good agreement with the experimental observations and comparing favourably with conventional statistical prediction models while retaining analytical simplicity. Our results provide a direct physics-based link between sparse coherent structures and rogue wave probabilities, with broader implications for nonlinear wave physics in optics, cold gases, and plasmas.

Building upon our previous studies on nonlinear variable-length pendulum systems, we investigate the Swinging Atwood Machine with a massive string. In contrast to the classical model, string inertia introduces a configuration-dependent moment of inertia, leading to a modified Hamiltonian structure and substantially richer dynamics. To uncover the global organization of the phase space, we combine Poincaré sections, bifurcation diagrams, and Lyapunov exponent maps with our recently developed numerical framework, ,,Lyapunov Refined Maps". This approach provides a unified visualization of periodic, quasi-periodic, chaotic, and terminating motions, revealing intricate resonance networks and high-order periodic structures. We investigate the influence of the string mass, system parameters, and energy by constructing Lyapunov maps in parameter and initial-condition spaces and on fixed-energy surfaces. Liouville integrability is studied within the Morales–Ramis theory. By analyzing the normal variational equations along explicit non-stationary radial solutions and applying the Kovacic algorithm, we prove that the differential Galois group is generically SL(2,C), providing a rigorous obstruction to meromorphic Liouville integrability for every nonzero string mass. Thus, the exceptional integrable case of the classical Swinging Atwood Machine is destroyed by the inclusion of string inertia.

We study a nearest-neighbor non-Hermitian spin chain obtained from one member of an exact non-braided scalene Yang–Baxter triple. Its local Hamiltonian density violates both the difference-form Reshetikhin condition and its general non-difference counterpart, obstructing its realization by a differentiable homogeneous regular solution of the ordinary Yang–Baxter equation. The transfer matrices constructed from the regular member do not commute among themselves at distinct spectral parameters. Nevertheless, the scalene Yang–Baxter relation implies cross-commutativity with another transfer matrix constructed from the third member of the scalene triple. We evaluate the latter for arbitrary chain length and show that, on even periodic chains, it is a finite generating function of a non-obvious staggered nilpotent symmetry. The resulting conserved hierarchy belongs entirely to the algebra generated by this single symmetry and hence does not constitute an extensive family of algebraically independent charges. Nevertheless, this example demonstrates that scalene Yang–Baxter triples can act as an algebraic symmetry-discovery mechanism beyond the ordinary self-commuting transfer-matrix framework.

Previous works have shown that strong coupling among heterogeneous agents enforces practical synchronization, leading to collective behavior governed by emergent dynamics. However, it remains an open question whether emergent behavior persists in the presence of communication delays, as high-gain methods are typically sensitive to delays. To address this problem, we instead slow down the agent dynamics, reproducing the synchronization mechanism of strong coupling on a slow time scale. As a result, the emergence of collective behavior is guaranteed despite arbitrary constant communication delays. This, however, comes at a cost: delays induce a derivative-like term, thereby scaling down the vector field of the emergent dynamics. The amount of the scaling is explicitly characterized as a function of the coupling weights and the delay lengths. We further suggest that this delay-induced slowdown, which is of independent interest, may be a general feature of diffusive coupling under suitable assumptions.

Bernoulli-type waveforms for modified Emden nonlinear oscillators of arbitrary natural power $q$ are obtained through a generalized commutative factorization approach. These oscillators display a well-defined odd-even dynamical dichotomy, which is discussed in detail: the odd-$q$ cases entail isochronous oscillators whose period $T = 2\pi/\omega$ is independent of amplitude and initial conditions, while the even-$q$ cases display underdamped behavior. The Lagrangian formulation is presented in the Lurie's dissipative description. The isochronous regime and the period of the solutions in the odd case are also confirmed through a generalized polar-coordinate analysis in the spirit of Sabatini's work. The absence of periodic orbits for even $q$ is shown to be a consequence of the Bendixson-Dulac criterion applied to the radial velocity function. Explicit waveforms and their phase portraits are presented for $q = 1, 2, 3, 4$, along with the non exponential envelope formulas for the damped cases and singular-region bounds for the isochronous ones. A few possible applications are also mentioned.

We study spatial solitons and their interaction dynamics in nonlinear optical media with spatially engineered refractive index and competing cubic-quintic (CQ) nonlinear profiles, using the variational approximation (VA), the hybrid variational approximation (HVA), and direct numerical simulations. The model was implemented in a symmetric step-index planar dielectric waveguide with a core exhibiting competing CQ nonlinearity and cladding layers possessing only a cubic nonlinear response. For stationary states, the Gaussian VA predicts two types of $N(\mu)$ characteristic curves, where $N$ is soliton norm and $\mu$ is propagation constant, separated by a boundary surface in parameter space, and numerical calculations reveal the same two types. Below this surface, the VA agrees with the numerical results mainly at low powers, while pronounced deviations in the profile and stability appear at high powers. Above the surface, the variational and numerical curves retain the same qualitative form, and a super-Gaussian ansatz accurately describes the high-power flat-top solitons. Soliton collisions produce four post-interaction regimes: Oscillation, Molecular, Splitting, and Breakup. The HVA reproduces the first three over a broad power range, including collisions involving flat-top solitons. Its main limitation arises in the Breakup regime, where strong radiation leaves the guiding region and cannot be represented by the adopted HVA ansatz. Nevertheless, for solitons associated with the second type of characteristic curves, the HVA still captures the breakup dynamics qualitatively. Thus, the HVA provides an efficient description of complex soliton interactions at a substantially lower computational cost than direct numerical simulations.

A class of elliptic solutions to the matrix CKP equation is studied. Equations of motion for their poles and matrix coefficients at the poles are obtained. As in the scalar case, they are of the first order, in contrast to what takes place in the KP and BKP hierarchies, where the equations of motion are of the second order.

Four-wave mixing provides a simple setting in which dispersion, nonlinearity, and non-Hermiticity compete to select resonant energy-transfer channels. We study degenerate four-wave mixing in a Kerr dual-core coupler with balanced gain and loss and frequency-dependent intercore coupling. The dispersive coupling changes the symmetry from conventional $\mathcal{PT}$ symmetry to a combined $\mathcal{CPT}$ symmetry and reshapes the two-branch linear spectrum. We determine the unbroken-$\mathcal{CPT}$ domain and classify the branch configurations that can satisfy the degenerate phase-matching condition. In the parameter ranges examined, three resonant channels persist over broad regions, whereas a same-branch channel appears only close to the symmetry-breaking threshold. In this near-threshold regime, a single pump can simultaneously satisfy two distinct nonzero sideband resonances. Direct pulse simulations confirm the predicted resonances and reveal secondary-wave generation and multifrequency cascades near eigenmode coalescence. A reduced three-wave model captures the initial dynamics away from the exceptional point but loses accuracy as the modal basis becomes ill-conditioned. These results show how dispersive coupling reorganizes resonances, group-velocity mismatch, and nonlinear energy exchange in a non-Hermitian wave system, and they identify the exceptional-point region as a regime where a few-mode description can break down.

We investigate two parity-time-symmetric ring resonators coupled over a finite angular region described by a super-Gaussian profile. In the linear regime, analytical spectra are obtained in the homogeneous-coupling and fixed-amplitude narrow-contact limits, while the finite-width problem is treated numerically. Local coupling introduces nonzero spatial Fourier components that mix angular harmonics and lift the degeneracy of counterpropagating modes, resolving each excited doublet into parity-dependent branches. Collisions among these branches generate multiple exceptional-point boundaries and disconnected broken-PT domains. The resulting phase diagrams exhibit re-entrant unbroken-broken-unbroken transitions when the gain-loss strength, coupling width, or peak coupling amplitude is varied. The numerical spectra continuously recover both analytical limits. In the nonlinear regime, selected ground and excited linear modes are used as seeds for adiabatic propagation into finite-amplitude Kerr waveforms that remain dynamically persistent over the simulated observation interval for finite ranges of nonlinear strength. These results show that the spatial profile of inter-resonator coupling provides a geometric means of controlling multimode PT transitions and selecting dynamically accessible nonlinear waveforms in coupled-ring systems.

Two identical scalar dynamical systems coupled through a scalar diffusion equation are studied herein, with respect to bifurcations from a symmetric steady-state to symmetric and asymmetric steady-states and to in-phase and anti-phase oscillations. Numerical continuations based on the developed theory show the shape of the bifurcation branches and the attracting nonlinear states far from bifurcation onset and confirm their, for the most part, derived stability. This study extends the work on the dynamical properties of a single scalar dynamical system coupled to its own delay through an adjacent diffusion field and quantifies further the delay of diffusive information transmission between two such Wentzell boundaries. The mathematical system is motivated by modeling biological membranes with yet unknown effective local fluxes that are coupled to bulk diffusion.

We study annealed current fluctuations in the two-dimensional symmetric simple exclusion process (SSEP) across a circular passive counting boundary. The initial average density is $\rho_1$ inside a disk of radius $R$ and $\rho_2$ outside, and the observable is the net decrease of the particle number in the disk over a finite time. Using convexity of the macroscopic fluctuation theory action and rotational averaging, we show that the minimizer of the full two-dimensional variational problem may be chosen radially symmetric. For the resulting radial problem, a suitable change of variables leads to a nonisospectral formulation on the half-line. Combining the associated scattering construction with a scalar factorization, we obtain a closed expression for the scaled cumulant generating function and hence the annealed large-deviation statistics of the current.

We study the dynamics of a two-component perturbation of the Camassa–Holm equation arising from a reformulation of the Euler–Bernoulli beam problem, recently extended to a general Clifford algebra setting. We focus on the original case associated with a Clifford algebra with two generators and Minkowski signature, for which the resulting equation admits nonsmooth soliton solutions (peakons) carrying internal degrees of freedom. We investigate analytically and numerically the dynamics of a two-peakon solution and establish the existence of a synchronized exchange of energy between spatially separated peaks, a phenomenon previously observed only numerically. We obtain a complete description of the long-time dynamics: the amplitudes approach a periodic orbit determined by the spectral invariants, and the resulting hidden periodicity governs the persistent exchange between the two peakons. The limiting orbit and its averaged dynamics are described explicitly in terms of elliptic functions and complete elliptic integrals. We also derive an exact identity relating the peak separation to the accumulated imbalance of the two amplitudes. This identity, combined with a frozen-parameter comparison argument, yields exponential decay of the interaction between the peakons and exponential convergence of the amplitude variables to the limiting periodic orbit. Moreover, once the asymptotic regime is reached, the separation increases from one period of the internal oscillation to the next, even though its instantaneous rate may continue to change sign. These results reveal a dynamical feature absent from the scalar Camassa–Holm equation: a persistent oscillatory transfer of energy between increasingly separated peakons, coupled with quantitatively controlled asymptotic decoupling.

Distinguishing chaos from noise using time-series data is fundamentally challenging because both exhibit irregular fluctuations and share many statistical and dynamical characteristics. Existing methods face two key limitations: temporally correlated noise can yield spurious signatures of chaos, and analyses of scalar time series often require explicit choices of embedding parameters. Here, we propose a purely data-driven method for distinguishing chaos and noise based on a reservoir-computing framework with a cross-prediction scheme. In the proposed approach, the model is trained to predict the future change of a variable from its current value, thereby combining a short-term predictability test with a test of the smoothness of deterministic flows. The recurrent structure of reservoir computing enables effective prediction of high-dimensional chaotic dynamics even from scalar time series without explicit delay-coordinate reconstruction, while the cross-prediction framework strongly suppresses spurious predictive correlations arising from noise. We apply the proposed method to diverse synthetic and empirical time series. Chaotic systems consistently yield strong correlations between the true and predicted future changes, whereas noise processes remain clearly separated in a low-correlation regime. The method also exhibits substantial robustness to practical limitations in empirical data, including measurement noise, limited data length, and increasing prediction lag. These results demonstrate that the squared Pearson correlation coefficient provides a simple quantitative criterion for distinguishing chaos from noise directly from observed time-series data.

The period of biological and chemical oscillators scales with temperature in a characteristic way. Some oscillators are very well described by an Arrhenius law, while others show systematic deviations. Several frameworks have been proposed to explain such deviations, but they are either phenomenological, focus on activation energy imbalances in specific circuits, or restrict themselves to sequential processes. Here we develop a mechanistic account of the temperature scaling of relaxation oscillators, using the Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction as a model system. We distinguish two typical scenarios by their temperature-scaling signatures. In the first, an Arrhenius-dependent timescale separation parameter produces a biphasic Arrhenius scaling of the period as the oscillator approaches a Hopf bifurcation. In the second, Arrhenius-dependent nullclines hide the same bifurcation behind a canard explosion, yielding apparent single-line Arrhenius scaling. Measuring the electrode potential of a classical and an uncatalyzed BZ reaction, over a very wide temperature range ({\approx} 100 {\deg}C), and comparing to dynamical models, we find that the two reactions represent these two distinct scenarios. Furthermore, we show that a single parameter characterizing the waveform asymmetry between fast and slow phases quantitatively predicts the temperature scaling of three other observables close to the Hopf bifurcation: the period, amplitude, and phase noise. This analysis also recovers elementary activation energies of the BZ mechanism, including a new estimate for the autocatalytic step. We discuss how this framework and its waveform-based diagnostics apply to the analysis of general biochemical relaxation oscillators

We report nonlinear edge waves in a 2D mechanical topological insulator. A bulk lattice consists of pendulums with on-site cubic nonlinearity connected by linear springs realizing quantum spin Hall effect. We show that the nonlinear interaction between two edge modes with equal group velocities (EGV) is described by a 1D two-component coupled nonlinear Schrödinger (CNLS) equation. On the interface separating two bulk lattices with opposite spin Chern numbers, we construct linear springs such that the dispersion relation exhibits EGV points with favorable CNLS coefficients. Thus, we realize nonlinear edge waves propagating along the interface, including bright-bright (BB) edge solitons for focusing CNLS coefficients, and dark-dark edge solitons, edge domain walls, and dark-bright edge solitons for defocusing CNLS coefficients. In terms of the site amplitudes, these solutions resemble bright and dark breathers. These solutions should be topologically protected when both carrier frequencies lie within a band gap, which we explicitly show by passing BB edge solitons through compact defects on the interface. We also show energy transfer in BB edge soliton collisions with potential application to collision-based computing. Generally, vector edge solitons exhibit a large parameter space for soliton collisions, which endows mechanical devices with greater potential for information processing and other functionalities.

The physics of spreading in static networks is well understood through mappings to percolation. We show that spreading dynamics on temporal networks can analogously be mapped to reachability in temporal event graphs. This provides a theoretical and computational framework for a class of processes, such as variants of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model. Without explicit simulations, through the component analysis of event graphs, we obtain epidemic prevalence and derive epidemic thresholds for temporal networks with arbitrary degree and inter-event time distributions, with significant computational advantages as compared to explicit simulations.

Using official government data sets of USA and France we analyze the occurrence/frequency/popularity distributions of given names on a time scale of more than 100 years. These distributions are characterized through the Lorenz and Pareto curves broadly used in the analysis of wealth inequality in the world. These curves remain stable during the considered time period with the Gini coefficient remaining in the narrow range 0.85-0.95. As for the case of wealth inequality, we show that the distributions of names are well described by the Rayleigh-Jeans (RJ) thermalization and condensation phenomenon well studied in various physical systems. The RJ thermalization results from two integrals of motion being analogous to energy and probability norm conservation in physical systems with energy states corresponding to popularity levels of names. Time correlations between names are also determined showing their stability until the middle of the twentieth century and a significant change after that.

We investigate pseudovorticity generation in Gaussian beams undergoing self-focusing under amplitude and phase noise, using the cubic-quintic nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Pseudovorticity, defined as the curl of the optical momentum flux, characterizes local rotational flow in the absence of phase singularities. Our numerical simulations show that thermal amplitude and phase noise induce a multipolar pseudovorticity pattern. Unlike the pure cubic case, where noise asymmetries are radiated away during collapse, the quintic saturation arrests collapse and traps the noise in the resulting soliton. Hence, pseudovorticity multipoles persist, oscillating at the focusing-refocusing period. These results suggest a potential pathway for controlling local optical torque through noise engineering.

We investigate Hamiltonian curl-force systems with indefinite kinetic energy. We first reconsider Berry's polynomial Hamiltonian curl-force model, whose numerically observed closed trajectories motivated an integrability conjecture. A Painlevé analysis yields a non-principal resonance spectrum, so that the corresponding Laurent series cannot accommodate the required number of arbitrary constants of the general solution. The model therefore fails the standard Painlevé test. We then introduce a four-parameter curl-force family and identify the parameter locus on which this system is integrable. We construct a second Hamiltonian, compatible Poisson tensors, separated complex characteristic variables, and a Lax representation. More generally, the separated form yields polynomial integrable curl-force Hamiltonians of arbitrary degree. We also show that the same construction admits a higher time-derivative potentialisation whose free limit is the degenerate Pais-Uhlenbeck oscillator. Finally, we analyse zero-curl invariant reductions and elliptic periodic solutions, and exhibit an isolated periodic orbit outside the integrable regime. This illustrates that closed trajectories alone do not imply Liouville or Painlevé integrability.

Whereas conventional Gaussian focusing gradually concentrates optical energy around the focal plane, abruptly autofocusing waves maintain a low peak intensity over most of their evolution before undergoing a sudden, high-contrast intensity surge at a prescribed focus. Since their introduction in 2010, their two-dimensional spatial realizations have enabled applications ranging from particle manipulation and material processing to terahertz generation and nonlinear optics. The recent work of Cao et al. marks the transition from (2+1)-dimensional spatial autofocusing to the full space-time domain through the experimental synthesis of spherical Airy wavepackets. This advance opens new opportunities for ultrafast structured light, tightly localized energy delivery, and nonlinear photonics.

Estimating positive largest Lyapunov exponents from data is comparatively natural because neighboring trajectories separate, whereas stable dynamics require resolving contraction before measurement noise or finite precision erases the signal. We introduce a period-aware forecast-error contraction procedure for estimating a dominant negative Lyapunov exponent from ensembles of short scalar trajectories without using governing equations or an analytical Jacobian. A k-nearest-neighbor predictor is trained on trajectory histories, the geometric-mean absolute forecast error is evaluated at phase-consistent horizons, and the exponent is obtained from the slope of the logarithmic error profile. Unlike data-driven approaches that reconstruct local evolution matrices or differentiate a learned surrogate, the proposed method extracts the contraction rate directly from out-of-sample forecast errors. Two adaptations are essential: the forecast step is synchronized with the detected orbit period, and candidate slopes are accepted only when they form a stable consensus across several transient lengths. On the logistic map, the method recovers 92 of 112 negative-exponent parameter values with a mean absolute error of 0.0253 and $R^2=0.886$. On a two-dimensional map without fixed points, independent scalar pipelines based on the three observables $x_n$, $y_n$, and $z_n$ give mean absolute errors of 0.00879–0.01145 and $R^2=0.983$–$0.986$. Because the estimation stage uses only observed trajectories, the framework provides a basis for repeated-relaxation experiments in which short sensor responses are available but the governing equations and analytical Jacobian are unknown. Experimental validation remains a subject of future work.

Excitable and oscillatory responses are widespread in cell signaling, but how these arise in the same system is unclear. We propose a minimal model of a saddle node bifurcation on an invariant circle, where slow fluctuations modulate transitions between excitable and oscillatory states, and noise drives excitability. Fitting the model to cell signaling data from embryonic stem cells reveals that these cells operate close to the bifurcation. Proximity to the bifurcation allows the cell to tune different dynamic states, suggesting a general principle for versatile cell signaling.