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Physics Nonlinear Sciences Chaotic Dynamics

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Thursday 20 August

Chaotic Dynamics

Intermittent Flocking and Fractal Collective Order Induced by Time-Varying Delays

Time-varying interaction delays are ubiquitous in active matter, yet their collective effects remain largely unexplored. We show that active particles with internal dynamics and Vicsek-like delayed alignment exhibit intermittent flocking, characterized by long episodes of coherent motion interrupted by brief disordering events. This collective behavior arises from laminar chaos, a form of chaotic dynamics unique to systems with time-varying delays. Changing only the delay parameters qualitatively reshapes collective motion, producing fractal changes in global flocking order. Our results establish the temporal structure of interaction delays as a new control parameter for active matter.
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Chaotic Dynamics

Homoclinic Intersections and the Macroscopic Observability of Arnold Tongues in the Forced-Dissipative Duffing System

Dissipative chaos often exhibits abrupt transitions to periodic windows or vanishing states, but these transitions occur far below macroscopic theoretical boundaries such as the Melnikov threshold. In this study, we re-evaluate the transversal intersections (microscopic) of invariant manifolds from a deterministic and entropic perspective for the “Arnold tongues” shown by synchronization to forced inputs in the parameter space. We applied an algorithm that digitally determines manifold intersections as binary values ($1.0$ or $0.0$) without numerical interpolation. As a result of scanning the $\Omega - F$ parameter plane at a resolution of $5000 \times 5000$ ($25$ million points) with the damping coefficient fixed at $k = 0.2$, it became possible to globally capture the relationship between the macroscopic phase-locked regions shown by the Arnold tongues and the microscopic manifold intersections (chaotic regions). Furthermore, from a one-dimensional cross-section whose computational accuracy was verified, we confirmed a dynamical case where the region with homoclinic intersections (topological entropy $h_T > 0$) is a necessary condition for the region where chaos manifests (Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy $h_{KS} > 0$), and simultaneously confirmed the existence of a region where the intersection of the primary saddle solution does not serve as a necessary condition.
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Wednesday 19 August

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.ao-ph

Coupled multiscale paleoclimate reconstruction with four-dimensional variational data assimilation

Paleoclimate archives extend climate knowledge beyond the instrumental era, registering different seasons, variables, time averages, and memory lengths. A longstanding problem is to integrate these heterogeneous sources of information within a unified methodology. Here we present a new data-assimilation framework, Last Millennium Reanalysis 4D-Var (LMR4D-Var), which reconstructs climate trajectories from these heterogeneous datasets while balancing errors in the model, observations, and initial conditions. We compare results using LMR4D-Var to assimilate proxies from PAGES2k, Temp12k, and borehole temperature profiles without treating them as instantaneous equivalents. Instrumental verification shows that LMR4D-Var achieves the highest skill compared with previous reconstructions. Borehole assimilation preserves skill against withheld annually resolved records, increases agreement between reconstructed 300–2000-m ocean heat content and independent estimates, and yields a cooler reconstructed Little Ice Age ocean. Results for Temp12k demonstrate assimilation of decadal-to-millennial records and the potential for Holocene and deeper-time applications with suitable emulators.
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All authors Zilu Meng, Gregory J. Hakim, Julien Emile-Geay, Tanaya Gondhalekar, Eric J. Steig

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from math.DS

Activated switching between coexisting limit cycles

Noise-activated switching between coexisting stable states is a fundamental mechanism underlying stochastic dynamics in systems ranging from chemical reactions to neural networks. While this phenomenon is well understood for stationary attractors, it remains largely unexplored for limit cycles, whose periodic motion cannot be described by a static potential landscape. Here we experimentally demonstrate activated switching between two coexisting limit-cycle attractors in a driven nonlinear system of coupled resonators. Specifically, we introduce controlled fluctuations to directly observe the rare stochastic transitions between two limit cycles and measure their dependence on noise intensity and driving strength. The measured switching rates are well described by a large-deviation theory, which replaces the conventional activation barrier by the action along the most probable transition path. Our results extend the concept of activated dynamics from stationary to limit-cycle attractors and establish a framework for modeling stochastic transitions between limit cycles in driven-dissipative systems.
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All authors Gabriel Margiani, Orjan Ameye, Oded Zilberberg, Alexander Eichler

Tuesday 18 August

Chaotic Dynamics

Set-Oriented Approach to the Analysis of Chaotic Itinerancy

Chaotic itinerancy (CI), brought to attention, among others, by K. Ikeda, I. Tsuda and K. Kaneko in the early 1990s, is a phenomenon in which trajectories in a dynamical system experience periods of ordered motion near quasi-attractors interspersed with chaotic transitions between them. Possible maps in which CI was found include coupled map lattices (CML) and globally coupled one-dimensional chaotic maps (GCM). We study such maps using numerical methods and graph algorithms. Specifically, we partition the state space into a finite grid of compact subsets, and we represent the map using a multivalued mapping of grid elements. This mapping can be perceived as a directed graph, with grid elements as vertices and individual mappings between them as weighted edges. This setup provides a coarse view of global dynamics and opens the opportunity for using Markov chains and efficient graph algorithms to study dynamical features. In particular, invariant sets can be found by computing strongly connected components in the graph. Analysis of the transition matrix of the graph makes it possible to find its stationary distribution and to compute local entropy as a measure of expansion or instability in the system. Using these tools, we propose an algorithm for assessing whether a certain map possesses the CI property and show its application to dynamical systems: a globally coupled system of logistic maps and a variant of a CML system for which we conduct computations for a large range of parameters.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from eess.SY

A (Purely) Graph-Theoretic Approach to Synchronization of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks

Synchronizing nonlinear dynamical networks typically requires solving matrix inequalities or detailed system models, which fail for large networks. This paper offers a simple fix : a purely graph-theoretic framework using only a single Lipschitz-like bound on the dynamics. Coupling strengths are computed directly from the digraph, bypassing inequality solvers entirely. The method succeeds where existing approaches encounter infeasibility due to connectivity patterns. It examines only $n-1$ directed paths per strongly connected component versus $\frac{n(n-1)}{2}$ undirected paths before, achieving $O(n^3)$ complexity. Results show network connectivity can be exploited to synchronize a large class of nonlinear dynamical networks.
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Monday 17 August

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn

Autonomous route to the strange attractor: the many life stages of the chaotic bubblewheel

A body floating atop a supersaturated fluid may accumulate bubbles along its underbelly, which can render the body rotationally unstable. But rotation can strip the surface of these bubbles when they make contact with the air above. To explore this coupling we perform experiments using cylinders floating on carbonated water. The cylinders exhibit an array of distinct dynamics, including constant rolling, periodic and aperiodic oscillation, chaos, and intermittent capsizing, which can be tuned by body size, mass distribution, and gas concentration. A continuum model for the bubble density dynamics, and Galerkin projection, tie the experiment to the generalized Lorenz system and its famed chaotic attractor. Even an extremely small center-of-mass offset can have a qualitative impact on the dynamics, and an offset of as little as a few percent can fully stabilize the system. The experiment represents a highly accessible physical realization of the Lorenz system, which, owing to continuous gas loss from the fluid to the air above, sweeps slowly without intervention across a classical bifurcation diagram in time.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from astro-ph.SR

Tracking nonlinear solar-wind dynamics over three solar cycles using Wind observations

The solar wind is a turbulent, weakly collisional plasma characterized by non-Gaussian fluctuations, long-range correlations, and multifractal dynamics. We investigate the long-term evolution of these properties using hourly proton density measurements obtained directly by the Wind spacecraft over 1995–2025. The use of a single-spacecraft dataset provides an independent test of previous results derived from the multi-spacecraft OMNI database. The three components of the nonextensive $q$-triplet are estimated within one-year sliding windows shifted monthly: $q_{stat}$ from the distribution of density increments, $q_{rel}$ from the decay of the autocorrelation function, and $q_{sens}$ from the multifractal spectrum. Their mean values, $q_{stat}=1.71\pm0.07$, $q_{rel}=4.62\pm0.52$, and $q_{sens}=-0.45\pm0.27$, confirm the persistent presence of heavy-tailed statistics, slow relaxation, and weakly chaotic multifractal dynamics. The parameters nevertheless exhibit distinct temporal variability and relationships with solar activity. The Fourier spectrum of $q_{stat}$ contains a dominant period of approximately $10.1$ years, while its correlation with the sunspot number is positive and moderate ($r=0.611$). Correlation and mutual-information analyses show that $q_{stat}$ is primarily associated with solar proxies, whereas $q_{sens}$ displays stronger relationships with geomagnetic indices and $q_{rel}$ exhibits weaker dependencies. An anomalous enhancement of $q_{stat}$ around 2004 coincides with a sequence of intense interplanetary disturbances, although possible effects related to Wind's orbital transition must also be considered. These findings demonstrate the robustness of the nonextensive description and show that the statistical and dynamical properties of solar wind proton density show evidence of modulation by solar activity.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.comp-ph

Validating direct solvers for Newton's gravitational N-body problem, and the systematic comparison between IEEE floating point and Posits

We present a systematic comparison between arbitrary precise arithmetic and integration, IEEE-754 compliant floating point arithmetic (fp16, bfp16, fp32, double precision fp64, and quadruple precision fp128), and two implementations of Posits (type III unum) for solving Newton's chaotic N-body problem. Each implementation is benchmarked with arbitrary precise calculations to objectively evaluate their performance in precision as well as speed. We rely on hardware and compiler implementations for fp64, and software implementations for arbitrary-precision arithmetic and Posits. Half precision arithmetic (fp16, bfp16, and Posits$<16,1>$) are insufficiently precise for solving Newton's equations of motion. Single precision (fp32, and Posits$<32,2>$) could be used for statistical ensemble calculations, but lead to relatively large errors in any individual strong encounter. All 64-bit implementations fp64 as well as Posits (Posits$<64,3>$) experience difficulty in our tests. One of the implementations of Posits (Universal) gives precision comparable to fp64 but is slow (by at least an orders of magnitude compared to fp64 after correcting for the more efficient hardware support for the latter). The other (CPPPosits) has a speed comparable to fp64 but has systematically larger errors (by about an order of magnitude compared to fp64 with excesses exceeding two orders of magnitude). As a consequence, this implementation leads to a systematic drift in the result space and has difficulty resolving close encounters. Posits and fp64 have difficulty when integrating a dynamical system in a moving reference frame; testing Galileo invariancy. In their current implementation, Posits do not seem to be the ideal alternative for fp64 when integrating chaotic or stiff ordinary differential equations, such as Newton's equations of motion.
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Chaotic Dynamics

When More Data Become Less Informative: Finite-Precision Periodicization and Collapse of Forecast-Error Lyapunov Estimates

Largest Lyapunov exponents (LLEs) quantify exponential sensitivity, but data-driven estimates are often obtained from finite-precision trajectories. We show that increasing the length of a single reduced-precision chaotic record can eventually degrade a forecast-error LLE estimate. Using the logistic map at r=4, an ESP32 single-precision trajectory is reproduced bit-for-bit by NumPy float32. Across 10,000 random float32 initial conditions, every trajectory reaches an exact recurrence before iteration 7612. For one long float32 record, the estimated LLE changes from 0.6853 at N=15,000 to 0.1827 at N=20,000 and approximately zero at N=30,000 as exact train-test histories saturate. At N=100,000, the long float32 record gives 0.0016, whereas independently restarted length-100 trajectories give 0.6917; matched float64 controls remain near ln(2)=0.6931. The collapse is reproduced for 28 representative initial conditions, and its onset is strongly correlated with the recurrence scale set by transient length and digital period (Pearson r=0.982). Thus, finite-state recurrence can turn additional samples into duplicate futures rather than new dynamical information, while independent restarts substantially delay this saturation.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Eigenanalysis framework for autoregressive neural emulators of multi-scale chaotic dynamics

Neural autoregressive models have rapidly emerged as powerful emulators of high-dimensional chaotic systems, yet their long-term instability and error growth remain poorly understood, leading to ad-hoc solutions. Here, we develop an eigenanalysis framework that reveals the dynamical origin of this error growth. By analyzing the Jacobian of the learned one-step update map with respect to the state, we show how inference-time error growth, and thus model stability, is governed by its spectral radius. Direct-step architectures (models that predict the next state from the previous one) generically admit unstable eigenvalues with magnitudes exceeding one, explaining the rapid divergence of these widely used models. In contrast, integration-constrained models (where the time derivative is estimated and integrated with a higher-order integrator) collapse their eigenspectrum onto the unit circle, yielding neutral stability and a universal linear error-scaling law. The largest eigenvalue of this Jacobian provides an architecture-agnostic, a priori diagnostic of short-term skill, long-term stability, and spectral bias, without requiring an expensive rollout. Leveraging this theory, we introduce a stability-promoting loss that explicitly regularizes Jacobian-driven error amplification, improving both forecast accuracy and dynamical robustness. Demonstrated across $29$ models spanning two architectures, several explicit and implicit integrators, and multiple loss functions on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky system, our results establish a theoretical foundation for the design and evaluation of neural emulators of chaotic multi-scale dynamics. More broadly, our framework is a step toward the kind of a priori stability analysis that numerical analysis provides for discretizations of differential equations and that scientific machine learning currently lacks.
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All authors Conrad Ainslie, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Michael W. Mahoney, Ashesh Chattopadhyay

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.optics

In-situ adjoint protocols for nonlinear PT-symmetric self-optimizing machines

Adjoint methods provide a powerful route for gradient-based optimization, but their physical implementation is obstructed in generic nonlinear systems because the adjoint dynamics requires backward-time evolution, Jacobian transposition, and terminal-value constraints. Here we show that nonlinear parity-time ($\mathcal{PT}$)-symmetric systems overcome this obstruction. Using a class of nonlinear non-Hermitian resonator networks, we establish symmetry relations that map the formal adjoint dynamics onto experimentally accessible forward-time evolutions supplemented by controlled injections. This construction enables exact in-situ evaluation of adjoint gradients without requiring explicit backward propagation or matrix transposition. We demonstrate the approach in nonlinear $\mathcal{PT}$-symmetric resonator chains, where the resulting optimization protocol autonomously discovers parameter configurations that realize prescribed spatio-temporal functionalities, including uniform energy redistribution and targeted wave transport at predefined time windows. Our results identify $\mathcal{PT}$ symmetry as a resource for implementing computational sensitivities within physical systems and establish a route toward self-optimizing nonlinear machines.
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All authors Zheming Li, Lucas J. Fernández-Alcázar, Zin Lin, Tsampikos Kottos

Sunday 16 August

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cond-mat.stat-mech

Dynamic critical exponent of the Yang–Lee edge singularity at three loops

We compute the dynamic critical exponent $z$ of the Yang–Lee edge singularity in relaxational dynamics using perturbative renormalization-group methods to the three-loop order. The calculation combines diagram reduction, analytic two-loop evaluation via parametric integration with hyperlogarithms, and numerical evaluation of three-loop integrals using the Sector Decomposition method. The perturbative series obtained is resummed using Padé and Padé-Borel-Leroy methods to produce estimates of $z$ in various spatial dimensions. The resulting values are consistent with previous perturbative and functional renormalization-group calculations.
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All authors Loran Ts. Adzhemyan, Diana A. Davletbaeva, Daniil A. Evdokimov, Mikhail V. Kompaniets

Saturday 15 August

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from hep-th

Topological Field Theory and Stochastic Dynamics

In the late 1980s, Baulieu and Grossman demonstrated that the supersymmetric formulation of Langevin stochastic differential equations (SDEs), proposed earlier by Parisi and Sourlas, belongs to the family of Witten-type topological field theories (TFTs). From a certain angle, this finding may appear puzzling: TFTs have no local degrees of freedom, whereas SDEs do exhibit local fluctuations. In this paper, we address this apparent contradiction in the context of the supersymmetric theory of stochastic dynamics (STS), a generalization of the Parisi-Sourlas-Baulieu-Grossman approach to SDEs of arbitrary form. We further discuss how, within STS, dynamical chaos can be identified with the spontaneous breakdown of the corresponding topological supersymmetry, while 1/f noise can be understood as a consequence of the Goldstone theorem. The butterfly effect, in turn, calls for an effective field-theoretic description that may itself possess a hidden topological structure, as we speculate on the basis of the Ginzburg-Landau approach and insights from AdS/CFT duality.
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Chaotic Dynamics

An Idealized Delay-Differential Model of Scuba Diver Porpoising and Runaway Ascent

A scuba diver holding constant depth balances on an unstable equilibrium: the gas carried in the suit and buoyancy compensator compresses with depth, so the buoyant force falls as the diver sinks and rises as the diver ascends. We represent the diver as a proportional-derivative controller that regulates this compressible-buoyancy saddle after a finite reaction delay, and we derive the governing delay differential equation from the vertical force balance and the isothermal gas law, reducing it to a damping ratio, two control gains, and a dimensionless delay. The characteristic spectrum, obtained by pseudospectral collocation of the semigroup generator and checked against a direct Newton solution of the characteristic equation, locates the Hopf boundary that separates stable hovering from sustained porpoising; for the baseline diver the critical reaction delay is 3.36 s and the onset period is 28.8 s. The bifurcation is supercritical, and because the saturating force is the quadratic hydrodynamic drag, the limit-cycle amplitude grows in proportion to the delay excess rather than as its square root. The safe-operating envelope shows that runaway ascent is triggered by saturation of the compensator, not by loss of linear stability, so a stable and an unstable diver can share the same escape threshold. As onset is approached, the lag-one autocorrelation and variance rise while the fitted recovery rate falls and matches the spectral abscissa, giving an eigenvalue-exact early warning of the transition.
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All authors Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Faizal Ade Rahmahuddin Abdullah, Iwan Pramesti Anwar, Faruq Khadami, Alfita Puspa Handayani, Karina Aprilia Sujatmiko, Rusmawan Suwarman, Dasapta Erwin Irawan

Friday 14 August

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from eess.SY

Positive Arc-Weight Design Makes Every Directed Laplacian Diagonalizable

For directed networks, the Laplacian need not be diagonalizable, so the standard master-stability variational equations cannot in general be fully decoupled into independent eigenmodes. We prove that this obstruction can always be removed by coupling-strength design: every weakly connected digraph admits a strictly positive weighting of its existing arcs for which the weighted in-degree Laplacian is diagonalizable. The construction uses a spanning directed acyclic subgraph with one source in each root strongly connected component, assigns distinct positive weighted indegrees to its non-source vertices, and then restores all remaining arcs with a common sufficiently small positive weight. The zero eigenvalue remains semisimple and all nonzero eigenvalues remain simple. We also give a discriminant criterion that computes an admissible interval of restoring weights. Thus, any fixed weakly connected directed topology can be positively weighted so that master-stability perturbations admit a complete modal decomposition.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from physics.flu-dyn

Long-time behavior of optimal mixing in an advection-diffusion shell model

We investigate the long-time behavior of optimal mixing in an advection-diffusion equation using a shell model framework. Our focus is on quantifying the decay of the scalar variance, measured by the negative Sobolev norm $H^{-1}$, under enstrophy-constrained stirring. We perform long-time computations using both local-in-time (maximizing the instantaneous mixing rate) and global-in-time (maximizing mixedness at a prescribed final time) optimization strategies. For mixing with diffusion ($\kappa>0$), the numerical results show that the scalar length scale eventually becomes limited by a generalized Batchelor scale, in close agreement with theoretical predictions. In this regime, the $H^{-1}$ mix-norm decays exponentially in time with a decay rate that is independent of the diffusivity $\kappa$. Compared with the purely advective case ($\kappa = 0$), diffusion significantly enhances the long-time mixing rate; moreover, increasing diffusivity further improves mixing efficiency by reducing the prefactor of the exponential decay. Guided by these numerical observations, we derive new conditional lower bounds on the $H^{-1}$ norm whose exponential decay rates are strictly independent of the diffusivity parameter $\kappa$, for all $\kappa > 0$. We further establish conditional upper bounds on the maximal rate of enhanced dissipation of the scalar variance, showing that the effective diffusion time scale is at least of the order $|\log\kappa|$.
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All authors Jiajia Guo, Baole Wen, Christian Seis, Charles R. Doering

Chaotic Dynamics

Resilience Beyond Pairwise Networks

We derive a one-dimensional reduction for nonlinear dynamics on simplicial complexes containing both pairwise and triangular (higher-order) interactions. The effective state is defined using a mixed weight determined by the pairwise and triangular degrees of each node. The resulting reduced equation retains two structural coefficients, associated separately with the pairwise and higher-order coupling channels. A fluctuation expansion identifies the closure assumptions underlying the reduction and shows how deviations of individual node states from the effective state contribute to the approximation error. We numerically validate the proposed framework on Gene-regulatory dynamics, the double-well system, and SIS spreading. The states of the reduced model are compared with full-network simulations through coupling-parameter sweeps, steady-state branch calculations, and progressive node-removal experiments on synthetic and real-world networks. The reduced model successfully reproduces the principal transitions and steady-state branches in all three dynamical systems considered. Agreement is strongest for relatively homogeneous networks and deteriorates when structural heterogeneity produces a broader distribution of node states. The closure diagnostics account for this loss of accuracy and indicate when a single effective state is no longer sufficient. The reduction therefore provides a tractable description of resilience in systems with coexisting pairwise and higher-order interactions.
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Thursday 13 August

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Aperiodicity is sufficient for macroscopic thermalization

We identify a general mechanism for the finite-time thermalization of macroscopic observables, such as coarse-grained charge densities, in terms of elementary forms of the quantum dynamics of initial states: (1) aperiodicity, which provides a computable measure of (2) a dynamical partially ergodic exploration of the Hilbert space. Specifically, this mechanism predicts the equilibration of all (concentrated) macroscopic observables, in almost all states in an initial ensemble and almost all times within finite and longer intervals, given only the observable-independent information that the return probability of the ensemble of initial states is small over a finite time range. As a special case, it also accesses standard results on equilibration over infinitely long times in terms of (stronger versions of) the effective dimension of initial state delocalization in the energy eigenbasis. Our results incorporate macroscopic thermalization into the domain of operational quantum statistical mechanics, recently developed to provide finitely computable criteria for microscopic thermalization. We discuss an overall characterization of this approach as establishing connections between (1) the decay of a (theoretically or experimentally) computable probe indicating memorylessness, (2) a fundamental invariant mechanism in terms of the alignment of observables or states in the Hilbert space, and (3) predicting different natural forms of (classical and) quantum thermalization, most of which rigorously recover conventional eigenstate-based descriptions of infinite-time thermalization as a special case but provide stronger accessible predictions over finite observation times in the thermodynamic limit.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cond-mat.mes-hall

Emergence of moiré magnetic chaos in twisted bilayer CrI3

The study of magnetic chaos has traditionally focused on macroscopic variables under external driving. Here we demonstrate a new type of magnetic chaos, termed moiré magnetic chaos, associated with mesoscopic magnetic domain variables in twisted bilayer CrI3 without external driving. The domains are stabilized by a characteristic interlayer exchange frustration, which supplies the multiple dynamical degrees of freedom required for autonomous chaos. Through micromagnetic simulations, we show that relaxation toward moiré magnetic textures is extremely sensitive to minute local perturbations of the initial state, characterized by substantial finite-time Lyapunov exponents and a final-state sensitivity that persists over five decades of perturbation amplitude. Statistical analysis further reveals that the resulting domain configurations are stochastic and pairwise uncorrelated. Our results identify a form of microscopic, undriven chaos in twisted magnets that extends nonlinear magnetism beyond the conventional driven regime.
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Chaotic Dynamics

Dimension Reduction of Higher-Order Dynamical Networks

Low-dimensional reductions provide a useful framework for studying high-dimensional dynamics on complex networks, but most existing approaches are restricted to pairwise interactions. Here, we develop a one-dimensional reduction for dynamical systems on networks with purely higher-order interactions. The reduction is formulated through an effective higher-order interaction strength ($\beta_{\Delta}$), associated with the triangular interactions of the underlying network and the dynamical system's effective state. We present a theoretical framework for the dimension-reduction approach and validate it across three dynamical models with exclusively higher-order interactions. We find that the reduction accuracy is mainly determined by the homogeneity of node states, i.e., the deviations in state values become very small. Numerical results on synthetic and real networks show that the reduced model captures the effective steady states and transitions of the full system with good accuracy.
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Wednesday 12 August

Chaotic Dynamics

Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping

Abrupt transitions in complex systems are often preceded by early warning signals. However, most indicators rely on the notion of critical slowing down and do not generally extend to rate-induced tipping where transitions can occur without local loss of stability. This is problematic in stochastic, nonautonomous systems where internal variability and time-varying variables interact to shape tipping onset. We use Koopman operator theory to develop a unified early warning framework for both bifurcation and rate-induced tipping in stochastic systems. Our approach builds on residual Koopman mode decomposition that measures discrepancies between dynamics and their finite-dimensional approximation, and extends it to the control setting by augmenting the observable space with time-varying control variables. In idealized examples, the resulting indicators recover expected signatures near bifurcation points and improve detection in rate-induced regimes where classical indicators fail. We further show that learned embeddings through deep learning outperform prescribed dictionaries, especially in a high-dimensional setting. Applied to simulations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, our Koopman-based indicators distinguish tipping from non-tipping trajectories and reveal interpretable spectral signatures prior to critical transition.
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All authors Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch, Derek DeSantis, Parvathi Kooloth, Hang Fan, Valerio Lucarini, Anastasia Romanou, Pierre Gentine

Chaotic Dynamics

Maximally chaotic competition for attention in the cultural domain

Memory is a key determinant when cultural items compete for attention and, consequently, for success, as in the case of songs on a music chart. For modeling, one adds memory to Lotka-Volterra models, the reference for Markovian competitive processes. Here we treat memory in terms of an exponential moving average, finding that it leads to an extended region of winnerless chaos characterized by log-normal popularity statistics in trailing top-k charts. Importantly, the observed log-normal behavior collapses to a power-law distribution when the feedback dynamics is fast on the scale of the charting period. This result is in agreement with the observed statistics of real-world music charts (e.g., Billboard and Spotify). In a chaotic state, the size of the largest Lyapunov exponent is a measure of how unpredictable the system is. We find that the largest Lyapunov exponent varies strongly as a function of parameters in the phase where winnerless chaos is stable. Interestingly, the sets of parameters obtained by comparing simulations with real-world cultural-item dynamics extracted from Google Books and Google Trends, movies, Reddit, Wikipedia, Twitter, and scientific publications, are located close to the points in parameter space where the largest Lyapunov exponent reaches its local maximum, namely, close to the point of maximal unpredictability. This result suggests that cultural competitive processes are maximally chaotic when memory is a key determinant.
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Tuesday 11 August

Chaotic Dynamics

Flux-form spatiotemporal neural operators for coarse-grained dynamics of multiscale PDEs

We study data-driven prediction of coarse-grained dynamics in multiscale PDE systems. Adopting a closure-free operator-learning viewpoint, we apply a linear coarse-graining map and learn a surrogate evolution operator for the resolved field directly from filtered high-fidelity trajectories. Motivated by the Mori-Zwanzig formalism, we propose a spatiotemporal neural operator mapping a resolved history slab on $\Omega\times[-T_{\mathrm{in}},0]$ to a resolved future slab on $\Omega\times[0,T_{\mathrm{out}}]$. Spatial mixing uses Fourier convolution, while temporal mixing uses a causal kernel operator with position-attention weights on time lags. This causal temporal operator encodes finite-memory effects in the resolved dynamics while preserving the directionality of the history-to-future map. To improve rollout robustness and suppress nonconservative artifacts, we embed a flux-form inductive bias by parameterizing the windowed update in explicit divergence form. We also provide a data-driven guideline for selecting the memory length $T_{\mathrm{in}}$ via the decorrelation time of a closure-injection diagnostic computed from filtered trajectories. We validate on the coarse-grained viscous Burgers' equation, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and two-dimensional turbulent flows, obtaining stable autoregressive rollouts with improved long-horizon accuracy and statistical fidelity.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from cond-mat.stat-mech

Equilibrium Distributions for Strongly Nonlinear Many-Body Systems

Obtaining equilibrium distributions of nonlinear systems is essential for accurately computing macroscopic observables. Conventional theoretical corrections are typically limited to weak nonlinearities, where interaction terms can be treated as effectively uncorrelated perturbations and the random phase approximation applies. In this Letter, we develop a framework to determine equilibrium distributions based on the generalized energy equipartition principle. Our approach recovers existing corrections in the weakly nonlinear regime and, crucially, remains valid for strong nonlinearities, where perturbative contributions become correlated and conventional approaches break down. Numerical simulations of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation, the Majda-McLaughlin-Tabak model, and the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou model demonstrate accurate corrections for nonlinearities more than an order of magnitude stronger than those accessible to conventional theories.
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Monday 10 August

Chaotic Dynamics

Integral of an alpha unpredictable function

The present paper is devoted to the study of integral properties of alpha unpredictable functions. The problem of invariance of recurrence under integration is one of the most challenging and interesting in the theory of functions. Let us start with periodicity. Next, the problem was solved for quasiperiodic, almost periodic, and Poisson stable functions. All of the problems were subjected to the condition of bounded integrals. The alpha-unpredictable functions are the endpoint in the row of recurrent functions. The class is the cross-border point from regularity to chaos in the dynamics presented through the elements of the row. In the present research, we finalized the proof that any theoretical functional recurrence is invariant with respect to integration, provided the result is bounded.
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Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from quant-ph

State Diagnostics of Complexity in Open Quantum Systems

We study the emergence of complexity in finite-size quantum systems as their dynamics transition from closed and coherent evolution to interacting and effectively open behavior. Using a state-based geometric framework, we represent mixed quantum states as probability measures on complex projective Hilbert space. This representation allows us to track how interactions reshape the underlying pure-state geometry. We introduce two complementary diagnostics: a distinguishability measure, based on the Wasserstein distance between probability-measure representations of mixed states, that quantifies sensitivity to initial states, and a state-space coverage index that measures long-time exploration of the subsystem state space. These diagnostics provide a geometric perspective on the emergence and evolution of quantum dynamical complexity. When applied to the quantum kicked top, both diagnostics generally increase with interaction strength. Their dependence on environment size is structured by parity symmetry, with integer-spin systems often exhibiting greater sensitivity and state-space coverage than half-integer-spin systems. These results highlight finite-size quantum effects and provide a geometric approach to quantifying dynamical complexity deep in the quantum regime
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All authors Komal Sah, Fabio Anza, Alexandra M. Jurgens, James P. Crutchfield

Chaotic Dynamics · Cross-listed from quant-ph

Spread of Entanglement in Generalized Kicked Ising Chain

We investigate the dynamics of entanglement in a generalized version of the kicked Ising chain, extending the model from the standard qubit case (local dimension $q=2$) to higher local dimensions ($q > 2$). We identify the existence of ”dual-unitary” points where the model's space-time duality allows for exact analytical solutions. Our analysis reveals that while a few unique dual-unitary points exist analytically for systems with local dimensions $q=3$ and $q=4$, such points do not exist for $q \ge 5$ due to the lack of a unique kicking strength that satisfies the required matrix element conditions. Utilizing the transfer matrix method and a replica trick specifically adapted for higher dimensions, we derive exact expressions for the growth of entanglement entropy in the $q=3$ (kicked Potts-type) model starting from a class of solvable initial states. Our results demonstrate that at the dual-unitary point, both Rényi and von Neumann entanglement entropies grow linearly with time until reaching a maximum value determined by the subsystem size.
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Chaotic Dynamics

Dynamics and non-integrability of the Swinging Atwood Machine with a massive string: chaos, periodic orbits and resonance structures

Building upon our previous studies on nonlinear variable-length pendulum systems, we investigate the Swinging Atwood Machine with a massive string. In contrast to the classical model, string inertia introduces a configuration-dependent moment of inertia, leading to a modified Hamiltonian structure and substantially richer dynamics. To uncover the global organization of the phase space, we combine Poincaré sections, bifurcation diagrams, and Lyapunov exponent maps with our recently developed numerical framework, ,,Lyapunov Refined Maps". This approach provides a unified visualization of periodic, quasi-periodic, chaotic, and terminating motions, revealing intricate resonance networks and high-order periodic structures. We investigate the influence of the string mass, system parameters, and energy by constructing Lyapunov maps in parameter and initial-condition spaces and on fixed-energy surfaces. Liouville integrability is studied within the Morales–Ramis theory. By analyzing the normal variational equations along explicit non-stationary radial solutions and applying the Kovacic algorithm, we prove that the differential Galois group is generically SL(2,C), providing a rigorous obstruction to meromorphic Liouville integrability for every nonzero string mass. Thus, the exceptional integrable case of the classical Swinging Atwood Machine is destroyed by the inclusion of string inertia.
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Friday 7 August

Chaotic Dynamics

Learning a quantitative criterion for distinguishing chaos from noise

Distinguishing chaos from noise using time-series data is fundamentally challenging because both exhibit irregular fluctuations and share many statistical and dynamical characteristics. Existing methods face two key limitations: temporally correlated noise can yield spurious signatures of chaos, and analyses of scalar time series often require explicit choices of embedding parameters. Here, we propose a purely data-driven method for distinguishing chaos and noise based on a reservoir-computing framework with a cross-prediction scheme. In the proposed approach, the model is trained to predict the future change of a variable from its current value, thereby combining a short-term predictability test with a test of the smoothness of deterministic flows. The recurrent structure of reservoir computing enables effective prediction of high-dimensional chaotic dynamics even from scalar time series without explicit delay-coordinate reconstruction, while the cross-prediction framework strongly suppresses spurious predictive correlations arising from noise. We apply the proposed method to diverse synthetic and empirical time series. Chaotic systems consistently yield strong correlations between the true and predicted future changes, whereas noise processes remain clearly separated in a low-correlation regime. The method also exhibits substantial robustness to practical limitations in empirical data, including measurement noise, limited data length, and increasing prediction lag. These results demonstrate that the squared Pearson correlation coefficient provides a simple quantitative criterion for distinguishing chaos from noise directly from observed time-series data.
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