Peer Revenue Past citations are no guarantee of future returns

Papers

Fresh from arXiv, typeset properly. Highlighted words trade on the market.

Mathematics

math Watch Mathematics (sign in to use)

Friday 7 August

Probability

Extreme least singular values of random row submatrices with bounded-density subgaussian entries

Let $\xi$ be a centered real subgaussian random variable with positive variance and a bounded Lebesgue density, and let $A_m\in\mathbb{R}^{N_m\times m}$ have independent entries distributed as $\xi$, where $N_m/m\to\gamma>1$. For each set $I\subset[N_m]$ with $|I|=m$, let $(A_m)_I$ denote the row submatrix indexed by $I$, and define $M_m(A_m):=\min_{I\subset[N_m],\,|I|=m}\sigma_{\min}((A_m)_I)$. We determine its exponential scale: $\frac{1}{m}\log M_m(A_m)\xrightarrow{\mathbb{P}}-h(\gamma)$, where $h(\gamma):=\gamma\log\gamma-(\gamma-1)\log(\gamma-1)$. This extends the corresponding real Gaussian result. The main new ingredient is an upper-tail argument that avoids uniform control over exponentially many random hyperplanes. We combine a density-level local central limit theorem for delocalized directions, an averaged delocalization estimate for hyperplane normals, an exponential bound for nearly parallel pairs, and amplification using a linear number of independent probe rows. For every fixed $\varepsilon\in(0,h(\gamma))$, the probability of an $\varepsilon$-deviation is at most $C\exp(-c\sqrt{m})$ for all sufficiently large $m$. Under the canonical coupling induced by a single infinite i.i.d. array, this summable deviation estimate yields a uniform almost-sure exponential law over every compact range of aspect ratios. In particular, at the real phase-retrieval threshold $N_m=2m-1$, the Balan–Wang stability parameter has exponential base $1/4$ in probability and, under this coupling, almost surely.
Read the full abstract

Optimization and Control

A Domain-Specific Harness for End-to-End Automation of Optimization Research

We present AutoOPT, a domain-specific harness for end-to-end automation of optimization research. AutoOPT organizes the discovery of optimal first-order methods into four stages: numerical design through the BnB-PEP methodology; symbolic discovery of the analytic description and a convergence proof through frontier large language models (LLMs); formal verification in the Lean 4 proof assistant; and human interpretation and write-up. We demonstrate the framework on two case studies, each of independent interest. The first, lemniscate acceleration, is a new accelerated gradient method for minimizing the gradient norm of a smooth convex function: after $N$ gradient steps it reduces the squared gradient norm at the optimal $O(1/N^{4})$ rate, with a constant governed by the lemniscate constant $\varpi$, a classical elliptic-integral constant. The second is the analytic description of ITEM-f, a method previously known only numerically: for $L$-smooth, $\mu$-strongly convex minimization it contracts the function-value gap at an accelerated linear rate with a per-step factor $(1-\sqrt{\mu/L})^{2}$. The convergence theorems of both case studies are formalized and machine-checked in Lean 4.
Read the full abstract

Combinatorics

A complete characterization of maximally {\sigma}-irregular trees with prescribed maximum degree

The sigma-irregularity of a graph G = (V, E) is defined as the sum, over all edges uv in E, of (d(u) - d(v))^2, where d(u) denotes the degree of vertex u. A tree on n vertices with maximum degree Delta is called maximal if it attains the greatest possible sigma-irregularity among all such trees. The maximal trees are already known for chemical trees (Delta <= 4) and for Delta = 5. In this paper, we characterize the maximal trees for every Delta >= 6 when n >= Delta(Delta - 1) + 1. We introduce three families of trees, T'{n,Delta}, T”{n,Delta}, and T”'{n,Delta}. All trees within the same family have the same sigma-irregularity, and we derive an explicit formula for the value attained by each family. Comparing these formulas determines which family has the greatest sigma-irregularity for given n and Delta. We then prove that a tree is maximal if and only if it belongs to a family attaining this greatest value. In contrast to the case Delta <= 5, the two natural candidate families T'{n,Delta} and T”{n,Delta} are not sufficient, since for every Delta >= 7 and every n congruent to 3 modulo Delta, the trees in T”'{n,Delta} have strictly greater sigma-irregularity.
Read the full abstract

Number Theory

Siegel zeros and small gaps between zeros of the Riemann zeta function

On assuming the Riemann Hypothesis, we show that Siegel zeros imply the existence of gaps between the zeros of the Riemann zeta function less than 1/2 the normalised length. Specifically, we show that an infinite family of Siegel zeros implies $\liminf_{n\to\infty}(\gamma_{n+1}-\gamma_n)\log(\gamma_n)/2\pi< 0.4733$ on RH. This refutes the existence of certain strong alternative hypotheses under these assumptions. Our arguments incorporate long Dirichlet polynomials of length $T^{17/14-\varepsilon}$ into the Montgomery–Odlyzko method.
Read the full abstract

Optimization and Control

Uncovering expert objectives in production planning via inverse optimization: An industrial case study

Production planning in the manufacturing industry often relies on the use of optimization models, but defining an appropriate objective function can be a challenge. In practice, planners must balance competing goals, manage uncertainty, and account for qualitative business preferences that are difficult to quantify. As a result, many optimization models fail to match expert behavior, limiting trust and adoption. In this work, we propose a data-driven inverse optimization framework to infer the objective function implicitly captured in expert planners' decisions. We formulate the production planning problem as a mixed-integer linear program, where the unknown objective function is represented as a weighted sum of hypothesized cost terms. A suboptimality-loss-based inverse optimization method is then applied to learn the objective weights from historical production plans. The proposed approach is applied to a real industrial case provided by Dow, where the inferred weights reveal that avoiding inventory shortages and maintaining consistent cycle lengths dominate the planners' decision-making. Time- and product-dependent extensions further improve predictive accuracy and uncover evolving priorities. Expert interviews confirm the practical validity of these insights. Overall, this study shows that inverse optimization can transform tacit human expertise into interpretable models, enabling more accurate and trusted decision-support tools for complex industrial systems.
Read the full abstract

All authors Shivi Dixit, Rishabh Gupta, Adam Kelloway, John Wassick, Qi Zhang

Functional Analysis

Banach lattices and phase retrieval: A case study for the use of AI in mathematics

The ability of large language models to assist professional mathematicians has been progressing rapidly. Earlier this year, a group of researchers in Banach lattice theory and phase retrieval began incorporating this technology into their research workflows. Facing challenges about the reliability of these models, they also decided to couple the discovery process with Lean verification. Here, we present a case study of how this has led to a more united community and a deeper understanding of our field.
Read the full abstract

All authors Jaume de Dios Pont, Lukas Liehr, David Muñoz-Lahoz, Mitchell A. Taylor, Pedro Tradacete

Representation Theory

Decomposition matrices of cyclotomic $q$-web categories

We develop the cellular structures for the endomorphism algebras of cyclotomic $q$-webs, which form a new family of quantum algebras sitting in between cyclotomic Hecke algebras and cyclotomic $q$-Schur algebras. We show that the Grothendieck group of a module category of the cyclotomic $q$-webs for $q$ generic or a root of unity is isomorphic to an integrable highest weight module over quantum affine $\mathfrak{gl}_p$; moreover, the isomorphism maps the classes of projective indecomposable modules to the canonical basis. This substantially generalizes the classic works of Lascoux-Leclerc-Thibon, Ariki, and Varagnolo-Vasserot.
Read the full abstract

Functional Analysis

The Banach lattice Lean library

We present a Lean 4 library for the theory of Banach lattices. Its purpose is to support the systematic formalization of contemporary research in Banach lattices and related areas. As evidence of this, we describe three research-level formalizations built using the library. Writing the library at scale was made possible by the use of LLMs with careful human supervision and planning. Unlike autoformalization, this approach allows for an actual understanding of the code. This, in turn, led to new mathematical insights that are also discussed. Judging by the interest expressed by other researchers, we expect the library to become a communal effort in the near future. For this reason, we also describe several parts of the theory that could be added next.
Read the full abstract

Logic

Stalnaker's logical problem of conditionals is unsolvable

The logical problem of conditionals, as conceived by Stalnaker, amounts to axiomatizing a particular semantics for conditionals which utilizes selection functions that take propositions (i.e., sets of worlds) as arguments. While the sentential form of this semantics is recursively axiomatizable, we prove that its enrichment with first-order quantifiers is not—that is, we show that Stalnaker's logical problem of conditionals is unsolvable in the language with first-order quantifiers. We demonstrate this by showing how to interpret arithmetic in the logic. In the conclusion, we discuss the implications of this result for the study of conditional logic.
Read the full abstract

Algebraic Geometry

Mirrors to toric degenerations via intrinsic mirror symmetry

We explore the connection between two mirror constructions in Gross-Siebert mirror symmetry: toric degeneration mirror symmetry (arXiv:1212.4220, arXiv:math/0309070, arXiv:0709.2290, arXiv:math/0703822) and intrinsic mirror symmetry (arXiv:1909.07649, arXiv:2105.02502). After briefly exploring the case of degenerations of elliptic curves, we show that the Gross-Siebert mirror construction for minimal relative log Calabi-Yau degenerations generalizes that for divisorial toric degenerations $\bar{\mathfrak{X}} \to \mathcal{S}$ of K3-s that have a smooth generic fibre. We achieve this by constructing a resolution of $\bar{\mathfrak{X}} \to \mathcal{S}$ to a relative minimal log Calabi-Yau degeneration $\mathfrak{X} \to \mathcal{S}$ and comparing the algorithmic scattering diagram $\bar{\mathfrak{D}}$ giving rise to the toric degeneration mirror $\check{\bar{\mathfrak{X}}}$ and the canonical scattering diagram $\mathfrak{D}$ giving rise to the intrinsic mirror $\check{\mathfrak{X}}$. Moreover, we vastly expand the construction and obtain a correspondence between the restriction of the intrinsic mirror to the (numerical) minimal relative Gross-Siebert locus and the universal toric degeneration mirror. We also discuss generalizing the results to higher dimensions. In particular, we construct log smooth resolutions for a natural family of toric degenerations of Calabi-Yau threefolds.
Read the full abstract

Category Theory

A direction functor approach to the cohomology of small categories

We show how the direction functors can be used to develop a cohomology theory for Barr-exact and S-Maltsev categories, where S is a suitable class of split epimorphisms with a fixed section. Using the fact that, for any set B, the category of small categories with B as set of object is S-Maltsev with respect to the class of Schreier points, we show that the cohomology theory of small categories arising from the direction functors coincides with the one introduced by Hoff and Golasinski.
Read the full abstract

Combinatorics

Maximum spread of $K_{s,t}$-minor-free graphs II: the non-admissible cases

We have previously determined the maximum-spread $K_{s, t}$-minor-free graph(s) on $n$ vertices when $n$ is sufficiently large, $2\le s\le t$, and $s=2$ or $t\ge \frac{3}{2}(s-3) + \frac{4}{s-1}$. In this sequel paper, we completely determine the maximum-spread $K_{s, t}$-minor-free graphs on $n$ vertices for $n$ sufficiently large and $2\le s\le t$. In all of the remaining cases, the extremal graph is unique and is of the form $(K_r \vee (s-1-r)K_1) \vee (\ell_r K_t \cup (n-s+1-t\ell_r)K_1)$, where $r$ is an integer determined by $s$ and $t$ and $\ell_r$ is an integer determined by $n, s, t,$ and $r$.
Read the full abstract

Probability

A pathwise Ito formula for weakly differentiable functions

We prove a version of Föllmer's pathwise Itô formula for weakly differentiable functions of continuous paths with finite quadratic variation along a sequence of partitions. For each such path $\omega$, we introduce a path-dependent Sobolev space $W_{\omega,\pi}^{2}$ defined through smooth approximation of the weak Hessian in a seminorm generated by discrete weighted occupation measures of the path $\omega$. For $F\in W_{\omega,\pi}^{2}$, we construct the pathwise integral $\int \nabla F(\omega)\,d^{\pi}\omega$ and the covariation $[\nabla F(\omega),\omega]_{\pi}$, and prove the change-of-variable formula $$ F(\omega(t))-F(\omega(0)) = \int_{0}^{t}\nabla F(\omega(s))\,d^{\pi}\omega(s) + \frac12[\nabla F(\omega),\omega]_{\pi}(t). $$ Our result does not require any assumption on the existence of local time for the path; the Ito term appears as a quadratic covariation. For Brownian motion, we show that functions in $W^{2+,p}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\cap W^{2,1}(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ belong almost surely to the corresponding path-dependent space, outside a polar exceptional set of starting points. If, in addition, $F\in W_{\mathrm{loc}}^{1,2}(\mathbb{R}^{d})$, the pathwise integral agrees with the stochastic Itô integral, yielding a pathwise version of the multidimensional Föllmer–Protter formula.
Read the full abstract

Quantum Algebra

Duflo–Kontsevich-type isomorphisms for Tamarkin–Tsygan calculi of dg manifolds

We establish a Duflo–Kontsevich-type theorem for differential graded (dg) manifolds. Specifically, we prove that the Hochschild–Kostant–Rosenberg maps twisted by the square root of the Todd class realize an isomorphism between the Tamarkin–Tsygan calculus and the Cartan calculus of the dg manifold. At the level of cohomology, this confirms the Kontsevich–Shoikhet conjecture formulated in arXiv:math/9812009.
Read the full abstract

Combinatorics

Maximizing Algebraic Connectivity with $2(n-2)$ Edges: The Large Vertex Number Case

Kolokolnikov conjectured that, among all simple graphs on \(n\) vertices with exactly \(2(n-2)\) edges, the complete bipartite graph maximizes algebraic connectivity. This paper proves the conjecture. The underlying Lean~4 formalization was generated with MerLean and checked by the Lean kernel.
Read the full abstract

All authors Zeru Zhu, Jinzheng Li, Yuanjie Ren, Ji Liu

Numerical Analysis

On the Role of Split Formulations on Aliasing Errors and Entropy Stability of Discontinuous Galerkin Schemes

In this work, we formally investigate the dealiasing properties of split form discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretizations for the one-dimensional Burgers problem. By generalizing the proof of Blaisdell et al. for spectral discretizations, we show that split form DG schemes achieve dealiasing in the weakly underresolved range through integration error cancellation on the conservative and non-conservative forms. As a corollary, we identify quadrature- and order-dependent pairs of splitting coefficients that eliminate the dominant component of the aliasing error. While these “optimized” splitting coefficients minimize integration errors on the numerical scheme, we show that the skew-symmetric aliasing pattern resulting from the entropy stable split is required to maintain long-term stability of the numerical solution. The proposed framework provides an alternative proof for the entropy stability of the DG discretization of the (1/3, 2/3) split formulation introduced by Gassner which clarifies the connection between DG aliasing errors and entropy stability. Finally, we also show that the entropy stable split is associated with lower aliasing errors in the weakly underresolved range compared to the conservative form.
Read the full abstract

Differential Geometry

Finite-Rank Lie Algebroids for Singular Foliations of Prescribed Vanishing Order

We construct a family of finite-rank Lie algebroids realizing, through their anchor maps, the singular foliations of vector fields vanishing to a prescribed order at the origin. The construction is obtained from the sub-adjacent Lie algebroids of a class of left-symmetric algebroids.
Read the full abstract

All authors Austin Davis, Cheng-Yi Hung, Sangjun Ko, Kaichuan Qi

Geometric Topology

Profinite rigidity in lattices of $\mathrm{PSL}(2,\mathbb{C})$

A finitely generated group is profinitely rigid among a class of finitely generated groups if it can be distinguished among this class by its set of finite quotient groups. This paper proves that all lattices in $\mathrm{PSL}(2,\mathbb{C})$ are profinitely rigid among themselves. In addition, for any lattice $\Gamma\le \mathrm{PSL}(2,\mathbb{C})$, it is proven that $\mathrm{Out}(\widehat{\Gamma})\cong \mathrm{Out}(\Gamma)$, where $\widehat{\Gamma}$ denotes the profinite completion of $\Gamma$.
Read the full abstract

Numerical Analysis

Mesh-Based Filtering to Alleviate Time-Step Restrictions in Runge–Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin Methods in Spherical-polar Coordinates: Application to the Euler Equations

We propose a mesh-based filtering approach to alleviate the severe timestep restrictions arising in explicit Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) methods formulated in spherical-polar coordinates. The filter enables stable evolution on the original logically Cartesian mesh while using larger time steps associated with an auxiliary merged mesh constructed to eliminate the extreme cell anisotropies produced by converging coordinate lines near coordinate singularities. The filter is implemented as a sequence of post-processing operations applied within an $s$-stage RK time integrator, making it straightforward to incorporate into existing structured-mesh DG frameworks. We analyze the filter in one spatial dimension and prove that the filtered RKDG method is equivalent to evolving the RKDG discretization on a nonuniform mesh obtained by merging selected elements of the underlying uniform mesh. This equivalence implies that the filtered method inherits the accuracy and stability properties of the corresponding RKDG discretization on the merged mesh. We apply the mesh-based filter to an existing RKDG method for the Euler equations in spherical-polar coordinates and demonstrate, through selected two- and three-dimensional examples, its effectiveness in accelerating simulations through significantly larger stable timesteps.
Read the full abstract

Combinatorics

Matroid flat counts can have many peaks

We disprove Rota's conjecture that the counts of flats in a matroid according to rank form a unimodal sequence. Furthermore, we show that this sequence can have arbitrarily many peaks. The construction starts by finding a generalized theta graph for which log-concavity fails severely. By taking direct sums, we break log-concavity in many places. We then use Whittle's $q$-lift construction to produce a matroid whose flat counts have many peaks.
Read the full abstract

All authors Alexander Divoux, Matt Larson, Chayim Lowen, Shouda Wang

Commutative Algebra

An Explicit Five-Variable Counterexample to the Generalized Vanishing Conjecture

We give an explicit counterexample in five variables to the Generalized Vanishing Conjecture. The construction is motivated by the recent counterexample to the Mathieu conjecture for SU(2). In the polynomial ring C[a,b,c,d,t], set P = (t+c)(ad+bt), Q = c, and let {\Lambda} = d/dt (d/da d/dd - d/db d/dc). We prove that {\Lambda}^m(P^m) = 0 for every m >= 1, whereas for every m >= 2, {\Lambda}^m(QP^m) = (-1)^m (m!)^2 (m+1)! t, which is nonzero. Thus the Generalized Vanishing Conjecture fails in dimension 5.
Read the full abstract

Optimization and Control

Solving Monotone Linear-Quadratic Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problems via Quadratic Programming

We consider generalized Nash equilibrium problems among $N$ players with convex quadratic costs and shared affine constraints, assuming only that the game's pseudogradient is merely monotone. We show that computing a variational generalized Nash equilibrium (v-GNE) is equivalent to solving a single convex quadratic program (QP) derived from the players' joint Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions. Building on this, we show that the regularization of such a QP yields an $\varepsilon$-approximated v-GNE with suboptimality vanishing linearly in the regularization parameter. Next, we propose an accelerated proximal-point scheme and an accelerated projected-gradient method, both attaining an $\mathcal O(1/k^2)$-approximated v-GNE at the $k$-th iteration. We also demonstrate that an invertible Jacobian of the game allows for reduction to a lower-dimensional QP. Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments show the proposed methods substantially outperform the existing approaches to solve monotone linear-quadratic v-GNE problems.
Read the full abstract

Optimization and Control

Sampling and Optimization meet Enhanced Flows

It is well known that the computational realization of Gibbs probability measures, $e^{-\mathbb{U}(\mathbf{x})}/Z$, plays a central role in sampling and optimization. In this paper, we introduce two types of dynamics that exhibit rapid convergence towards these Gibbs measures. The mechanism driving this rapid convergence is the enhanced dissipation associated with these transport-diffusion dynamics. Motivated by these enhanced dynamics, we design numerical algorithms for sampling from the target Gibbs measure. Finally, we provide the corresponding particle systems that may yield other effective numerical samplers.
Read the full abstract

Numerical Analysis

Accelerating the Conjugate Gradient Method by Solving Multiple GPU-Parallelized Duplicate Systems

We propose a method to accelerate the conjugate gradient method (CG) on parallel computing hardware by performing block conjugate gradient on one linear system. We aim to reduce the number of iterations until convergence by solving several copies of the system to explore multiple regions of the solution space at once. Although solving multiple systems requires more floating point operations than solving one, these computations are highly parallelizable, even without additional hardware resources. Our method does not replace preconditioning and can be used with any preconditioner. We developed linear regression models to predict iteration reduction and speedup as functions of the coefficient matrix's size, its number of nonzeros, and the solve time with CG. Our experiments show that our method can reduce solve time by up to 6 times in dense systems and up to 5 times in sparse systems that require long solve times with CG relative to their size.
Read the full abstract

Numerical Analysis

Comparing domain decomposition preconditioners for non-conforming Helmholtz discretizations

We compare additive and multiplicative domain decomposition preconditioners, without coarse correction, for three non-conforming polynomial discretizations of Helmholtz problems: discontinuous Galerkin, embedded Trefftz discontinuous Galerkin, and hybrid discontinuous Galerkin methods. The preconditioners are studied within stationary and Krylov iterative solvers. All three discretizations lead to complex-symmetric systems and local subproblems with inherited impedance-type boundary conditions. These properties enable the use of conjugate gradients and allow the local matrices to be obtained directly by restriction of the global matrix. Numerical experiments in two and three dimensions demonstrate promising performance for large-scale Helmholtz problems.
Read the full abstract

All authors Moritz Gallauner, Emile Parolin, Paul Stocker, Igor Voulis

Geometric Topology

Reachability under arc crossing changes

Cericola proved that every knot diagram can be transformed into an ascending unknot diagram by arc crossing changes. We refine this result for all diagrams on a fixed R1-reduced classical knot shadow with more than three crossings. Apart from at most two source diagrams, any two diagrams of the same state parity are mutually reachable. Each source diagram reaches every non-source diagram of its parity but cannot be reached from another diagram. A local five-occurrence condition on the marked Gauss word characterizes the sources and thereby determines the full directed reachability relation.
Read the full abstract

Analysis of PDEs

Hölder regularity and Harnack inequality for the logarithmic Laplacian

In this article, we establish Schauder-type estimates for the logarithmic Laplacian. We show that for a $\kappa$-Hölder inhomogeneous term, the solution is also $\kappa$-Hölder in the interior. In fact, the interior regularity slightly exceeds $\kappa$-Hölder smoothness up to a logarithmic correction. Additionally, we prove a Harnack inequality for non-negative solutions.
Read the full abstract

All authors Anup Biswas, Subhajit Roy, Aniket Sen, Lovelesh Sharma

Dynamical Systems

GPU-Accelerated Orbit Propagation with High-Fidelity Solar Radiation Pressure Modeling

Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP), the force exerted by photons emitted by the Sun, is one of the main non-gravitational perturbations affecting spacecraft trajectories, making its accurate modeling essential for high-fidelity orbit propagation. While physically-based ray-tracing models improve SRP accuracy, their computational cost becomes a limitation during numerical integration, where the SRP force must be evaluated repeatedly throughout the trajectory propagation. This paper investigates the integration of high-fidelity SRP models into orbit propagation through two complementary contributions: a Vulkan-based GPU implementation that accelerates direct SRP evaluation, and an extension of the SRP model to account for the dynamic orientation of solar panels. These contributions are evaluated independently through orbit propagation experiments, while a precomputed SRP interpolation strategy (SPAD) is included as an alternative approach for reducing computational cost through offline sampling and interpolation. Numerical validation shows that the Vulkan implementation preserves the accuracy of the original OpenGL-based method, showing relative differences below $5\times10^{-4}$ while achieving speed-ups of up to 9.4 for individual SRP computations and up to 15.2 for complete orbit propagation, particularly for geometrically complex spacecraft. The movable solar panel model shows that neglecting panel motion can produce significant long-term propagation errors, especially for spacecraft with large articulated solar panels, while introducing only a moderate computational overhead. Based on the experimental evaluation, this work concludes with practical guidelines for integrating high-fidelity SRP models into orbit propagation frameworks, identifying the scenarios under which interpolation-based methods are sufficient and when online high-fidelity SRP computation is justified.
Read the full abstract

All authors Leandro Zardaín, Ariadna Farrés, Anna Puig, Kevin Muntal, Albert Mir

Statistics Theory · Cross-listed from cs.AI

Winning by Peeking: Unenforced Budgets and Test-Set Selection Inflate Short-Budget AutoML Comparisons

Comparisons between AutoML systems at short time budgets – tens of seconds rather than hours – are common in tool READMEs and workshop papers, and they are easy to get wrong. We report a case study in which a simple AutoML engine, Orcetra, appeared to beat FLAML and AutoGluon on 513 OpenML datasets, winning 57.1% of them at a nominal 60-second budget and 78.4% of datasets against FLAML alone at 30 seconds. Both margins came from protocol defects that a results table cannot show. The search loop scored every candidate on the test split and reported the best, making the headline metric a maximum over dozens of noisy estimates while the baselines selected on training data and touched the test set once; and the budget was checked before launching a candidate but never enforced during one, so the system consumed a median of 120 s against a 60-second budget, 2.24x the wall-clock AutoGluon used. Re-running with selection moved to a validation split, the deadline enforced externally and every framework pinned to an equal share of the machine, Orcetra's win rate on the re-run subset falls from 59.4% to 34.3% and no pairwise difference against either competitor remains significant. Recording both estimands inside a single search lets us attribute the collapse: the selection rule accounts for 4.8 percentage points and unequal compute for most of the rest. The same traces give the selection bias as a function of budget, measured rather than assumed: it grows with $K$ but reaches only 0.27 accuracy points, about five times below the $\sigma\sqrt{2\ln K}$ bound a marginal-standard-error argument predicts, because candidates scored on shared test rows cancel most of the noise. We close with a checklist for short-budget comparisons. Code, per-dataset results and the scripts that regenerate every number and figure in the paper are released with it.
Read the full abstract