Probability · Cross-listed from math.OC
Papers
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Tuesday 15 September
In this manuscript, we study the master equation for mean field game of controls, assuming only that the data are Lipschitz continuous in the measure variable. Accordingly, we propose a weaker notion of solution called weak solutions for the master equation. We establish the global well-posedness of the master equation for such solution under the Lasry-Lions monotonicity and displacement $\lambda$-monotonicity conditions, respectively. The arguments rely on the analysis of the associated Pontryagin forward-backward stochastic differential equation system, especially the stability in the measure variable. Finally, we review several existing notions of non-smooth solution from the literature, namely good solutions, weak viscosity solutions, Lipschitz solutions, monotone solutions, and examine their relationship with our weak solution. We show that under appropriate assumptions all of them are equivalent by their definitions, and thus our manuscript provides a unification of weak solution notions for the master equations derived from mean field game of controls.
Probability
Mixing time under monotone censoring
We prove that the lazy random walk on the discrete cube, censored to any increasing set of fixed positive density, mixes in time $O(n\log n)$, answering a question of Ding and Mossel. More precisely, for every nonempty increasing set $A\subseteq \{0,1\}^n$, \begin{equation} t_{\mathrm{mix}}(P) \le K\mu(A)^{-3}n\log(en). \label{eq:mixing-time-bound} \end{equation} where $\mu$ is uniform on the cube and $K$ is an absolute constant. The proof uses hypercontractivity on the ambient cube to strengthen Poincaré inequality on coordinate sections. A stopping-time occupation inequality for increasing sets converts the resulting local bound into a uniform bound on hitting times of large sets. See the appendix for a better estimates of the constant and the dependence on \(\mu(A)\).
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Monday 14 September
Probability
Optimal complete-feedback card guessing under nonincreasing valley weights: A proof of the Diaconis-Fulman-Holmes shelf-shuffling conjecture
Let a random permutation $W\in S_n$ represent the order of $n$ distinct cards. After each guess, the player learns the actual card, and the objective is to maximize the expected total number of correct guesses. Diaconis, Fulman, and Holmes conjectured that, after a single uniform, unbiased shelf shuffle, the direction-tracking strategy is optimal: first guess the smallest card, and thereafter choose the nearest remaining card in the direction of the most recent rise or fall. We prove a more general theorem: if \[ \mathbb P(W=w)=\frac{f(v(w))}{\sum_{\sigma\in S_n}f(v(\sigma))}, \] where $v(w)$ is the number of interior valleys of the permutation, $f$ is nonnegative and nonincreasing, and the denominator is positive, then direction tracking maximizes the conditional probability of correctly guessing the next card after every history of positive probability. It therefore maximizes the expected total number of correct guesses among all complete-feedback strategies. Here an interior valley is a position $2\le i\le n-1$ satisfying $w_{i-1}>w_i<w_{i+1}$. Combined with the known shelf-shuffling probability formula, this theorem proves the conjecture for every deck size and number of shelves. The key to the proof is a swap of adjacent remaining values that preserves the revealed prefix: starting from the preferred candidate, the swap leaves the valley count unchanged or increases it by one, thereby turning monotonicity of the weights into a conditional probability ordering after every history.
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Probability
Extremal expectations in card guessing with partial feedback: proofs of two conjectures of Diaconis-Graham-Spiro
We study the minimum and maximum expected scores over all adaptive strategies in sequential card guessing with yes/no feedback. A deck contains $n$ labels, each appearing $m$ times, and is shuffled uniformly. The cards are guessed one at a time, and after each guess the player is told only whether it was correct. Always guessing the same label gives exactly $m$ points. How far can the expected score depart from $m$ if all previous feedback is used either to seek or to avoid correct guesses? Diaconis, Graham, and Spiro conjectured that the minimum expectation is $m-o(m)$ as $m\to\infty$ with $n$ sufficiently large in terms of $m$, and that, for each fixed $m$, the limit superior of the maximum expectation as $n\to\infty$ is at most $(e-1)m$. Writing these extrema as $P^-_{m,n}$ and $P^+_{m,n}$, we prove \[ 0\le m-P^-_{m,n}\le3m^{3/4} \qquad(n\ge m\ge1), \] and the finite-parameter bound \[ \frac{P^+_{m,n}}m\le\sum_{k=1}^{n}\frac1{k!}<e-1 \] for all positive integers $m,n$. The first bound gives a first-order asymptotic uniform in $n\ge m$; the universal constant $e-1$ in the second cannot be reduced. Thus both conjectures follow. The lower bound combines a switching comparison for restricted permutations with martingale second-moment estimates. For the upper bound, we represent the repeated cards as a random interleaving of independent decks of distinct cards and prove that the optimal expectation is additive when the component-deck labels are revealed.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cond-mat.dis-nn
Towards the spin-glass transition in finite dimensions via blue percolation
We prove blue percolation in the Chayes-Machta-Redner representation of the zero-field Edwards-Anderson spin glass in finite dimensions. For fixed symmetric iid couplings with $0<m=\mathbb{E}|J|<\infty$, the first blue-percolation inverse temperature $\beta_{\mathrm{b}}(d)$ satisfies $2dm\,\beta_{\mathrm{b}}(d)\to1$ as $d\to\infty$, in periodic joint limits. For symmetric $\pm1$ couplings, both overlap signs percolate at explicit temperatures in every dimension from 7 to 12. That proof reveals the overlap field, shows that it dominates a weakly coupled Ising field, and bounds a weighted second moment of open paths; in dimensions 7 to 9 the paths make short lateral excursions, and an interaction-matrix criterion controls the second moment. These proofs are computer-assisted: finitely many inequalities between rigorously bounded quantities are decided in exact rational arithmetic. For exponential-moment disorder, we also establish a percolating regime with exactly equal infinite-blue-sector densities and finite spin-glass susceptibility. In these periodic limits, persistent density imbalance would imply distinct spin-flip-related Gibbs states and ordinary spin-glass order: positive spatial-overlap variance, infinite spin-glass susceptibility and a cusp of the replica-coupling pressure, without requiring finite-blue cancellation. Proving imbalance remains open.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.MG
Strong laws, random monotone vector fields and gradient flows on metric spaces of nonpositive curvature
Using a novel effective non-asymptotic concentration inequality, we establish a distribution-uniform generalization of Sturm's strong law of large numbers for inductive means of $L^1$-sequences of i.i.d. random variables on (separable) Hadamard spaces. Building on that, we establish a strong law of large numbers for integrable random monotone vector fields on (separable) Hilbert-Hadamard spaces, that is Hadamard spaces where all tangent cones isometrically embed into Hilbert spaces, extending a previous result of Salim set in Hilbert spaces. We use this latter strong law to establish a probabilistic Lie-Trotter-Kato formula for the gradient flow generated by an integral function over (separable) Hilbert-Hadamard spaces where all tangent cones are actually full Hilbert spaces. This application leverages the previous Lie-Trotter-Kato formula established for gradient flows of sums of convex functions by Stojković together with a result relating resolvent and gradient flow convergence established by Bačák, as well as a new result on the interchangeability of the subdifferential and the integral, which we establish for $L^2$-Lipschitz integrands. The last ingredient provides, to our knowledge, the first nonlinear version of (a particular case of) a previous result due variously to Ioffe and Tikhomirov, Levin, Hiriart-Urruty, Thibault as well as Rockafellar and Wets. Throughout the paper, we highlight various remaining open problems.
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Probability
Renyi's Relative Entropy Lyapunov Functional for Convergence to Invariant Measure in Dissipative Stochastic Hamiltonian Systems
This paper is concerned with multivariable stochastic Hamiltonian systems governed by an ordinary differential equation for the position and an Ito stochastic differential equation for the momentum. The momentum dynamics involve both conservative and nonconservative forcing including Langevin viscous damping and the Wiener process as a random force. The setting allows for rotational degrees of freedom, a non-quadratic potential energy function and position-dependent mass, diffusion and damping matrices. In addition to modelling nonlinear physical dynamics subject to random forcing, the system is motivated by a stochastic optimisation viewpoint, where the search for global minima of the potential energy (for example, using the gradient descent) is carried out through convergence to a Boltzmann equilibrium measure which favours smaller values of this function. Under certain regularity conditions, we show that the $\chi^2$-divergence or, equivalently, Renyi's second-order relative entropy with respect to the invariant measure has a nonpositive time derivative and thus provides a Lyapunov functional candidate for this convergence. However, this derivative vanishes at some moments of time, which is related to the behaviour of the probability distribution of the momentum conditioned on the position and has a link to a family of auxiliary quantum harmonic oscillator Hamiltonians parameterised by the position space of the underlying classical system. This position-momentum conditioning is used in order to prove that such pre-equilibrium break times in the entropy dissipation are isolated, thus making the $\chi^2$-divergence a strictly decreasing Lyapunov functional for the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation which governs the joint position-momentum distribution in such systems.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.RA
Relative commuting probability and BFC-type results for finite skew braces
We develop a probabilistic approach to the structure of finite skew left braces, motivated both by classical commuting probability in finite group theory and by the role of skew left braces in the study of set-theoretic solutions of the Yang–Baxter equation. We introduce relative commuting probability for skew left braces and establish analogues of several classical structural results, including relative BFC-type theorems. For natural classes of finite skew left braces, we show that a positive lower bound for the commuting probability forces the existence of a large section which is trivial up to bounded subgroups. We also study the probability that two elements generate a trivial sub-skew brace and a Sylow-local version of commuting probability, obtaining further structural consequences. Finally, we introduce a commuting probability for finite non-degenerate set-theoretic solutions of the Yang–Baxter equation. Under natural hypotheses on the associated structure skew brace $G(X,r)$, a positive lower bound for this probability yields a bound on $|G(X,r):\Soc(G(X,r))|$ depending only on the probability and on $|X|$.
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Probability
On symmetric partition lattices and probability interactions
The Möbius function of a partition lattice can be used to define interactions of probability measures. We call a lower set a symmetric partition lattice when it is invariant under permutations of the variables. We characterize these lattices through integer partitions and obtain a recursion for their Möbius coefficients at the top element. By constructing probability measures whose partition products are linearly independent, we show that permutation invariance of an interaction is equivalent to that of its underlying lower set, provided the coordinate spaces are sufficiently large. We also characterize the partitions on a lower set that force an interaction to vanish for every probability measure, and construct indecomposable distributions with zero interaction. We define the order of a symmetric partition lattice and relate it to vanishing marginals. We study generalized Lancaster and define the Streitberg and size-limited partition lattices, obtaining explicit Möbius coefficients for them. Finally, we express interaction equations in terms of characteristic functions. For Gaussian distributions, we show that an interaction vanishes exactly when the distribution factorizes according to a nontrivial partition in the underlying lower set. We also give a nonvanishing criterion for radial characteristic functions generated by Bernstein functions.
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Probability
A Quantitative Characterization of the Mokobodzki Condition
We establish a quantitative characterization of the Mokobodzki condition for two adapted càdlàg barriers on an arbitrary filtered probability space. For every $p\geq1$, we introduce a mean co-variation functional $Var_p(L,U)$, which for $p=1$ and $L=U$ reduces to Rao's mean variation, and show that it is quantitatively equivalent to the minimal $\underline H^p$-norm among all semimartingales lying between the barriers. The result covers both the case $p>1$ and the endpoint $p=1$, where the natural scale is based on Doob's class $(D)$.
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Probability
Cascade Surviving Cores via Local Limits
We consider a general class of cascading processes on marked networks, in which vertices are iteratively deleted according to a local vertex property. Under marked local-weak convergence, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition for the proportion of vertices in the final stable set to converge to the survival probability in the limiting network. Under this condition, we also obtain convergence of the proportions of vertices in subsets specified by local properties.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.CO
A simpler proof of the Matrix Spencer Theorem
Probability
Convergence for Small-Order Derivatives of Random Polynomials with Independent Roots
Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be i.i.d. complex-valued random variables with arbitrary Borel probability law $\mu$, and set $P_n(z)=\prod_{j=1}^n(z-X_j)$. For every deterministic sequence $k_n=o(n)$, we prove that the empirical zero measure of the $k_n$-th derivative $P_n^{(k_n)}$ converges weakly to $\mu$ almost surely.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.NT
Low moments of Hecke eigenvalue sums
We show that partial sums of the Sato–Tate random multiplicative functions introduced by Cogdell and Michel exhibit better-than-square-root cancellation. The proof proceeds via a connection to multiplicative chaos, following Harper's seminal work. By a non-trivial adaptation of Harper's derandomization argument for character sums, we also obtain upper bounds for low moments of Hecke eigenvalue sums and of Hecke eigenforms near the cusp $0$; to our knowledge, this is the first appearance of multiplicative chaos in the context of automorphic forms on $\mathrm{GL}(2)$. A novel ingredient is the introduction of Hecke $s$-norms.
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Probability
Naturality characterizes product measures and relative product measures
We show that the formation of the product measure is the only natural way to assign to each tuple of probability measures on measurable spaces a probability measure on the product space. Here, naturality is meant in the sense of category theory and amounts to the condition that the assignment commutes with pushforward along measurable maps. In the standard Borel setting, we also prove an analogous result for relative products over a fixed base probability space. As a corollary, we conclude that the formation of relative products is a lax symmetric monoidal functor.
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Probability · Cross-listed from cs.DS
Thin-shell stability of Gaussian cooling: logconcave sampling with sesteric complexity from a cold start
We show that logconcave probability measures along the Gaussian cooling path have thin-shell stability, generalizing the thin-shell theorem. This result leads to improved complexity for the fundamental problem of sampling an arbitrary logconcave distribution from a cold start. For (near-)isotropic logconcave distributions, the complexity is nearly $n^{2.5}$, improving the previous bound of $n^{2.75}$, and matching the complexity of the abstract Speedy walk.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.NT
Cauchy laws for zeta logarithmic derivatives and stationary Stieltjes transforms
We prove an unconditional Cauchy limit for a symmetrically truncated Stieltjes transform of the projected ordinates of the zeros of the Riemann zeta function. A suitable normalization of the logarithmic derivative of $\zeta$ on the critical line has the same limit provided that the sum of the distances to the critical line of the zeros lying to its right, counted with multiplicity up to height $2T$, is $o(T)$; we give an explicit bound on the comparison error. The proof rests on a convergence theorem for the Stieltjes transform of positive stationary point measures whose counting discrepancy satisfies an integrability criterion. This theorem is obtained by comparison with the transforms of periodic point measures, combined with truncation bounds and a transfer theorem. Over finite fields, a classical cotangent identity yields Cauchy limits for the logarithmic derivatives of zeta functions of varieties: the law is exactly Cauchy for nonconstant pure cohomological factors, and Poincaré duality gives explicit errors for full zeta functions, including Cauchy limits for smooth hypersurfaces of increasing degree, uniformly in the base field.
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Probability
A universality result for the critical 2d stochastic heat flow
For a large class of discrete- and continuous-time models satisfying a linear flow property, we prove convergence to the critical $2d$ stochastic heat flow under diffusive scaling of space and time. Convergence is in the sense of finite-dimensional distributions in the space of measure-valued stochastic flows. The class of discrete models we consider includes random walks in space-time random environments with finite-range jumps, and directed polymer models with finite-range spatial correlations. The class of continuum models we consider includes several distinct types of linear-multiplicative stochastic PDEs whose driving noise is Gaussian with a smooth and compactly supported covariance kernel.
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Probability
An $L^p$-Variational Formula on Wiener Space
We establish a stochastic control representation for $L^p$-norms on Wiener space. For every $p\ge1$ and every non-negative universally measurable functional $\varphi$, we show that $$\|\varphi(W)\|_p = \sup_a \mathbb{E}\Big[ e^{-\frac12\int_0^T\|a_t\|^2\,dt} \varphi\Big( W+\sqrt{p-1}\int_0^\cdot a_t\,dt \Big) \Big],$$ where $W$ is a $d$-dimensional Brownian motion and the supremum is taken over all progressively measurable controls $a$ satisfying $\int_0^T\|a_t\|^2\,dt<\infty$ almost surely. This identity can be viewed as a multiplicative $L^p$-analogue of the Boué–Dupuis variational formula. We also provide an extension to strong solutions of stochastic differential equations with path-dependent coefficients. Building on the variational formula, we discuss finite-$p$ estimates for small-noise limits of stochastic differential equations with path-dependent coefficients. These include quantitative Freidlin-Wentzell bounds, a functional Gaussian approximation and concentration estimates, and moderate-deviation bounds. Moreover, we discuss consequences for functionals determined up to a stopping time, obtaining in particular probability bounds that identify the sharp exponential decay rate after optimization over controls. The proof of the variational formula combines probabilistic arguments with convex duality methods, viscosity theory for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, and a dynamic programming principle.
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Probability
Sharp propagation of chaos for mean-field backward stochastic differential equations
We study propagation of chaos for decoupled mean-field forward-backward stochastic differential equations whose generators depend on the empirical laws of the forward states, backward values and diagonal martingale integrands. Under monotonicity and Lipschitz assumptions, synchronous coupling gives quantitative estimates, including an $m$-particle squared Wasserstein bound of order $m/n$ for a system of $n$ particles interacting through finitely many statistics. In the Markovian setting, assuming a sufficiently regular classical decoupling field, we obtain two sharp refinements. For constant invertible diffusion and first-order cancellation of the field's measure dependence along the limiting law flow, the squared Wasserstein error is of order $m^2/n^2$, on continuous-path space for the values and on $L^2$ for the diagonal integrands. Without imposing this cancellation, smooth weak errors have order $n^{-1}$ for every fixed marginal, allowing variable and possibly degenerate diffusion. The weak estimate is uniform on a fixed time interval for the values and integrated in time for the integrands. The argument compares the interacting BSDE with an empirical evaluation of the decoupling field, retaining the full martingale representation and controlling feedback through both backward laws. It yields a joint-path Wasserstein transfer bound with intrinsic squared error $m/n^2$, off-diagonal integrand estimates, and a weak-error transfer principle with additive error $n^{-1}$. Explicit models with feedback through both backward laws verify the cancellation assumptions. Examples distinguish the intrinsic backward error from the forward law error and establish matching lower bounds for each backward component.
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Probability
Phase transition for the smallest eigenvalue of high-dimensional sample correlation matrices
We study the smallest nonzero eigenvalue of the sample correlation matrix $\mathbf{R}_n$ formed from a $p_n \times n$ data matrix with i.i.d. real entries $\xi$ of mean zero and unit variance, in the high-dimensional regime $p_n / n \to \phi \in (0, \infty) \setminus \{1\}$. In the tall regime $\phi > 1$, we prove almost-sure convergence of $\lambda_n (\mathbf{R}_n)$ to the lower Marčenko–Pastur edge $\lambda_- = (1 - \sqrt{\phi})^2$ without additional moment assumptions. In the wide regime $\phi < 1$, we establish a phase transition at the third-order tail scale. If $t^3 \mathbb{P}\{\lvert \xi \rvert > t\} \to 0$ as $t \to \infty$, the smallest eigenvalue $\lambda_{p_n} (\mathbf{R}_n)$ converges in probability to $\lambda_-$. While if $t^3 \mathbb{P}\{\lvert \xi \rvert > t\} \to \infty$, then $\lambda_{p_n} (\mathbf{R}_n)$ converges in probability to zero. At the critical scale $t^3 \mathbb{P}\{\lvert \xi \rvert > t\} \to \kappa \in (0, \infty)$, the point process of eigenvalues in the lower gap $(0, \lambda_-)$ converges in distribution to a Poisson random measure with explicit intensity. In this critical regime, we also identify the nondegenerate limiting distribution of $\lambda_{p_n} (\mathbf{R}_n)$, which has a continuous density on $(0, \lambda_-)$ and a positive atom at $\lambda_-$.
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Probability
On the Malliavin calculus on product spaces and an infinite de Jong theorem
We extend the Malliavin theory for $L^2$-functionals on product probability spaces that has recently been developed independently by Decreusefond and Halconruy (2019) and by Duerinckx (2021), by characterizing the domains and investigating the actions of the three Malliavin operators in terms of the infinite Hoeffding decomposition in $L^2$, which we identify as the natural analogue of the famous Wiener-Itô chaos decomposition on Gaussian and Poisson spaces. We further explore the corresponding Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroup in terms of its Mehler representation and prove new moment bounds for iterated gradients. As an illustration of the abstract framework, we prove an infinite version of the quantitative de Jong CLT that has recently been proved by G. Peccati and the author (2017) and by the author (2024).
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Probability
Uniform-in-time approximation and convergence of invariant measuresfor the damped stochastic Korteweg-de Vries equation
To quantitatively characterize the long-time dynamics of the periodic damped stochastic Korteweg–de Vries (sKdV) equation driven by additive noise, we investigate the uniform-in-time error estimates for a Lie–Trotter operator splitting approximation. This splitting combines the exact deterministic KdV flow with the exact Ornstein–Uhlenbeck solution map for linear damping and additive forcing. Long-time error analysis for the sKdV equation is highly nontrivial because of the interplay among the lack of dissipative smoothing, the loss of one spatial derivative arising from the Burgers-type nonlinearity, and the fluctuations of stochastic forcing. To overcome these difficulties, we develop new strategies based on exponential Lyapunov estimates, the continuous dependence estimate, and the local error decomposition. We establish strong and weak order \(1\) convergence uniformly in time under sufficiently large damping, as well as strong order \(1\) convergence on finite time intervals under a weaker damping condition. Under stronger assumptions, the splitting approximation admits a unique invariant probability measure on \(H_0^2\), which approximates the invariant measure of the exact dynamics with order \(1\). To the best of our knowledge, these constitute the first uniform-in-time strong error and quantitative invariant-measure approximation results for the periodic damped sKdV equation with additive noise. Our results provide an avenue for long-time simulation of the damped sKdV equation.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.ST
Extension of Likelihood Ratio Analysis Method to Skorokhod $M_1$ Topology (with Application to Poissonian Smooth Change-Point Model)
We extend the Ibragimov-Khasminskii likelihood ratio analysis method, in the one-dimensional parameter case, to a framework based on the Skorokhod $M\_1$ topology. The proposed framework applies to a broad class of statistical models, including those for which the normalized likelihood ratio processes are continuous while the limiting likelihood ratio process is discontinuous, a setting outside the scope of classical approaches based on the uniform or Skorokhod $J\_1$ topologies. We derive sufficient conditions for the weak convergence of likelihood ratio processes in the space of càdlàg functions on $\RR$ vanishing at $\pm\infty$, endowed with the Skorokhod $M\_1$ topology, and show how this convergence yields the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator. We also introduce new techniques for controlling the $M\_1$ modulus of continuity. Although these techniques are particularly well suited to models in which all jumps and steep continuous transitions are in the same direction, they are of independent interest and may prove useful beyond this setting. As an application, we study a smooth change-point model for inhomogeneous Poisson processes in the fast regime, where the transition interval shrinks faster than $1/n$. We establish that in this case the maximum likelihood estimator has the same asymptotic behavior (consistency, rate of convergence, limiting distribution and convergence of moments) as in the corresponding ”pure” change-point model.
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Probability
Bernoulli flow for Erdős-Rényi graphs
We study the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the adjacency matrix $A$ of the Erdős-Rényi graph $\mathbb G(N,p)$ in the regime $Np \gg (\log N)^2$. We establish optimal isotropic delocalization for the bulk eigenvectors $\boldsymbol u$, meaning that $\langle \boldsymbol v, \boldsymbol u\rangle^2 \leq \frac{C \log N}{N}$ with very high probability for any deterministic normalized $\boldsymbol v$. In addition, we prove local spectral universality in the bulk by showing that the local spectral statistics coincide with those of the GOE. The main tool of our proof is a local law for the resolvent of $A$, down to optimal spectral scales and with optimal error bounds. Its proof relies on a new approach to local laws that we call the Bernoulli flow. It is a characteristic flow method in which the usual Brownian process is replaced by a Bernoulli process, where each edge of the graph forms an independent Markov process that jumps at unit rate from closed to open. The spectral parameter flows according to a suitably constructed matrix-valued Bernoulli characteristic flow.
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Probability
Phase transition in optimal hypercontractivity
We discover an exponent-dependent phase transition phenomenon for optimal hypercontractivity: for every prescribed $q_0>2$, there exists a reversible continuous-time Markov chain on three state space with normalized spectral gap whose $(2,q)$-optimal hypercontractivity time satisfies $$ \text{$t_{\mathrm{opt}}(2,q)=\frac12\log(q-1)$ if and only if $q\ge q_0$},$$ whereas the strict inequality $t_{\mathrm{opt}}(2,q)>\frac12\log(q-1)$ holds for $2<q<q_0$.
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Probability
Critical branching random walks on $\mathbb{Z}^2$: local survival probabilities and Yaglom limit theorems
We consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ with critical offspring of mean $1$ and spatial motion governed by the jumps of a lazy simple random walk. For every site $x\in\mathbb{Z}^2$, we obtain a uniform asymptotical estimate for the local survival probability, i.e., the probability that there are particles at $x$ at large time $n$. Using Stein's method, we establish a Yaglom-type theorem for the number of particles at $x$ at time $n$ when $x$ is at distance of order $\sqrt{n}$ from the origin. Moreover, at the position occupied by a typical particle at time $n$, the number of particles at that site, normalized by $\log n$, converges in law to a Gamma distribution, thereby confirming a conjecture of Lalley and Zheng [Ann. Probab. 39 (2010), 327-368]. Finally, we prove that, conditional on local survival, the total number of particles at time $n$, divided by $n$, also converges weakly to a Gamma distribution.
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Probability · Cross-listed from math.AP
Harnack estimates for nondivergence kinetic equations
We establish a weak Harnack inequality for nonnegative strong supersolutions and a Harnack inequality for nonnegative strong solutions of the nondivergence-form kinetic equation \[ \partial_tu+v\cdot\nabla_xu+a(t,x,v):\nabla_v^2u +b(t,x,v)\cdot\nabla_vu+c(t,x,v)u=0, \] where the coefficients $a$, $b$, and $c$ are merely Borel measurable, the matrix $a$ is uniformly elliptic, and $b$ and $c$ are bounded. As a consequence, we derive interior kinetic Hölder estimates for strong solutions. Our approach develops a probabilistic kinetic analogue of the Krylov–Safonov method. The main new ingredient is a quantitative version of Krylov's estimate for kinetic Itô processes with progressively measurable coefficients, which in turn yields the global existence of weak solutions to the associated kinetic SDE with bounded measurable coefficients. These results appear to be the first Harnack and Hölder regularity theory for kinetic equations with merely measurable coefficients.
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Probability
Stability in stochastic hypergraph matching III: general reneging
In many real-life matching problems, waiting agents might abandon before being matched, such as patients deceasing before receiving organs, passengers/drivers cancelling ride requests, or raw materials/intermediary products degrading in production lines. This poses the need for incorporating reneging in stochastic matching models. In this work, we consider matching models on hypergraphs with batch arrivals and general-weight matchings. Since our model allows fractional weights, we may not be able to talk about individual items, and thus reneging is not required to be independent between items of the same class. For the simplicity sake's, we assume items arrive at discrete time. We show that stability depends on the exact nature of reneging, in stark contrast with the non-reneging case where it depends on the arrivals only through the arrival rates. To our best knowledge, this is the first such sensitivity result in stochastic matching. We uncover a new stabilising mechanism which exists neither in the non-reneging case nor in the graph case, which explains why incorporating reneging in stochastic matching is not straightforward. Together with balancing mechanism as hinted in the online assignment framework for the non-reneging case, it gives a criterion necessary and sufficient for stability. Finally, whilst verifying stability is a hard problem, we give a family of MaxWeight-type policies parameterised by $\varepsilon > 0$, which are maximally stabilising for all $\varepsilon$ sufficiently small. Unfortunately there is no effective bound for $\varepsilon$, but we show how to adjust its value during implementation.
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Probability
Canonical analytic realizations of hyperbolic determinantal processes
Krishnapur asked whether the invariant hyperbolic determinantal point processes on the disk admit a random analytic zero-set interpretation at noninteger parameters. We construct such a realization for every positive real parameter as the full compact-open limit in distribution of normalized finite Blaschke products. The zeros determine the modulus and normalized analytic shape, leaving one independent uniform phase. We prove exact Möbius covariance and classify all realizations with this covariance and square-integrable logarithmic modulus at the origin: they are precisely independent positive random multiples of the canonical function. Within this covariant class, matching the canonical logarithmic mean and variance uniquely determines the canonical function law. The family is weakly continuous in the parameter and agrees at positive integers with determinants of matrix-valued Gaussian power series. An explicit Barnes $G$-function Mellin transform determines the basepoint normalization.